HRN Division Rankings: 3-year-olds step up on Derby, Oaks trails

With three major 2018 Kentucky Derby prep races run last Saturday, one would think that we would gain clarity as we move closer to the Run for the Roses. But I came away from the weekend with more questions than answers. 

In the Santa Anita Derby it was Justify validating his hype as he led throughout, beating Bolt d’Oro by three lengths. There is no denying it was a great race from Justify, but the question has to be asked: Will he really get a setup like that in the Kentucky Derby? The answer is an emphatic no. With three career starts, none at age 2, the task in Louisville against 19 others will be quite a different story. 

Good Magic rebounded nicely at Keeneland and got the win that many needed to see before he arrived in Louisville. Is he good enough to win the Derby? I don’t know. This year there seems to be an extraordinary amount of horses who could end up in the winner’s circle. 

For me, The Wood Memorial provided the most definitive answer of the weekend. Vino Rosso is a horse that many have thought highly of but he had yet to put it all together. He did in the Wood and if he can reproduce that form in on May 5 he could be tough to hold off in the stretch. 

Superstars in the making? Rushing Fall made her much anticipated 2018 debut and didn’t disappoint, as the top 3-year-old filly in our rankings looks like a superstar in the making. Analyze it could be the 3-year-old male version of Rushing Fall as he again dominated in his third turf start in as many tries. Before the year is out he could end up being the top 3-year-old. Army Mule made his stakes debut in the Grade 1 Carter and he didn’t disappoint, either, winning off by a half a dozen lengths. The Met Mile will be next and before long he could be sitting atop the older male rankings.

Given that, here is an updated look at HRN's Division Rankings:

Older Dirt Males

1.  West Coast – Ran well in finishing second to Thunder Snow in the Dubai World Cup. Ten furlongs may not be his best distance. He will get some time off now and be back in the summer.

2.  Accelerate – The 2018 version of Accelerate is unbeaten in two starts this year, and the song of Awesome Again moving up in this division. This weekend he will race for the first time outside of California in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap.

3.  Good Samaritan – His 2018 debut was outstanding, as he easily won the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap. Turf or dirt, there are many options for this son of Harlan’s Holiday. The Grade 1 Stephen Foster in June is on the radar with a race before then in the plans.

4.  Seeking the Soul – The winner of the Grade 1 Clark in November was hung wide in the first turn of the Pegasus and ran evenly in the stretch to finish fifth.

5.  Sharp Azteca – On a break right now, the Met Mile is the next target.

Next 5: Collected, Mor Spirit, Pavel, Mubtaahij, Army Mule.

Older Dirt Females

1.  Abel Tasman – Two straight bullet works for the daughter of Quality Road. The Grade 1 La Troienne at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby weekend will likely be her 2018 debut.  

2.  Elate – The 2017 Alabama and Beldame winner has had delays in her comeback due to a minor splint bone injury.

3.  Unique Bella  – The Grade 1 Apple Blossom this weekend is her next start, which would also mark her first race outside of California. A win will most certainly move her up these rankings.

4.  Vale Dori – Now on the work tab at Santa Anita, she was tough as nails in 2017 giving Stellar Wind all she could handle.

5.  Paradise Woods – Should be more effective around two turns and will shoot for the Grade 1 Beholder Mile on June 2, with a possible start in the Grade 3 Adoration Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on May 6.

Next 5: Salty, Fault, Martini Glass, Lockdown, Mopotism.

3-Year-Old-Males

1.  Audible – Moves to the top here based off his stellar record this year in winning the Holy Bull and Florida Derby in easy fashion. Appears to have all the tools to follow in stablemate Always Dreaming’s footsteps. Will vie for Derby favoritism with Justify.

2.  Bolt d’Oro – Never really had a chance in the Santa Anita Derby with Justify away on an easy lead in tepid fractions. You should get a decent price on him in the Kentucky Derby, but I am not sure he is good enough to win it. Will need an ideal trip to have a chance.

3.  McKinzie – Will miss the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby due to a hind leg issue, but his previous accomplishments prove he belongs here.

4.  Good Magic – A win is just what this guy needed. In what was his career best performance, Good Magic ran well from a far outside post in a large field coming from off the pace. About as nice of a Kentucky Derby dress rehearsal as you will find nowadays.

5.  Justify – Ran as advertised in the Santa Anita Derby when allowed to set an easy and uncontested lead. The Kentucky Derby against 19 others will be a completely different story, though, as he will have no such advantages in Louisville. Unraced at age 2 and only three career starts, he will be an underlay on the tote board in Louisville.

Next 5: Mendelssohn, Vino Rosso, Magnum Moon, Noble Indy, Flameaway.

3-Year-Old-Females

1.  Rushing Fall – Impressed yet again in her 2018 debut. The sky appears to be the limit with this daughter of More Than Ready.

2.  Monomoy Girl – Dominated an overmatched field in the Grade 1 Ashland and now will head to the Kentucky Oaks in a showdown with Midnight Bisou.

3.  Midnight Bisou – Unbeaten this year and an easy Santa Anita Oaks winner, she will be very tough to beat in Louisville.

4.  Caledonia Road – The 2-year-old champion suffered another setback, with the Kentucky Oaks now out of the question. Her next race plans are not set.

5.  Dream Tree – Unbeaten filly topped Midnight Bisou twice last year and was primed for a rematch this year before she went to the sidelines.

Next 5: Blamed, Coach Rocks, My Miss Lilly, Eskimo Kisses, Road to Victory.

Turf Males

1.  World Approval – The Grade 1 Kilroe Mile was his first loss since June of last year, but he has earned his place here and will maintain his hold for at least another race. He will skip what was expected to be his next start, Friday's Maker's 46 Mile at Keeneland.

2.  Itsinthepost – Won his third straight Grade 2 stakes in 2018. Only beaten five lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Turf last fall, and now at 6 years old, this guy is in the best form of his career.

3.  Sadler’s Joy – Outside of the slow pace he was behind, no real excuses for his fourth-place finish in Gulfstream's Pan American. Like last year, he is at the mercy of the pace in his races.

4.  Beach Patrol – Breeders' Cup Turf runner-up will make his 2018 debut on the Kentucky Derby undercard in the Grade 1 Old Forester Turf Classic.

5.  Oscar Performance – Was brilliant at times against his own age group in 2017. He should mature now at 4 years old and has a higher ceiling than most. Has yet to record a work in 2018.

Next 5: Bigger Picture, Heart to Heart, Oscar Nominated, Hi Happy, Analyze It.

Turf Females

1.  Off Limits – Caught behind an extremely slow pace in her 2018 debut at Tampa Bay Downs, beaten a little over a length. Gets a mulligan as before that she won five of six in 2017, which included the Grade 1 Matriarch to end her season. Will reappear next in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley on April 14 at Keeneland.

2.  War Flag – Only beaten by three lengths in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, she previously won the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. Was on the work tab at Payson Park in February, but nothing since.

3.  Hawksmoor – Runner-up to Off Limits in the Matriarch, she previously won two graded stakes at Belmont Park last spring. In training at Tampa Bay Downs readying for her 2018 debut.

4.  Rushing Fall – Ultra talented 3-year-old could be at the top of this list before very long.

5.  Fourstar Crook – A winner of 10 of 15 starts, she passed her sternest test to date successfully in her win over Off Limits at Tampa Bay. Will have every chance to move up here.

Next 5: Dona Bruja, Cambodia, Grand Jete, Daddy’s Lil Darling, La Coronel.

Male Sprinters 

1.  Roy H – Had every chance in the stretch to pass X Y Jet but just could not muster enough late punch. The 2017 Eclipse Award winner is not taken down from this spot because of one loss. He’s earned his place here for at least another race.

2.  X Y Jet – Ran a superb race in Dubai after being headed for the lead at the outset. He looked home free with 200 yards to go but was again nailed on the wire in Dubai, much like he was two years ago.

3.  Mind Your Biscuits – Pulled off a remarkable win against the track bias in defeating a superstar field that included our Top 2. As honest as they come, another quality win like Dubai could move him up even higher. He will point to the Met Mile for his next start.

4.  Imperial Hint – Was dominant in his 2018 debut at Tampa Bay Downs in a listed stakes winning by five widening lengths under a hand ride. His loss to Roy H in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint is his only defeat since November of 2016.

4.  City of Light - Showed in the Grade 1 Triple Bend that his score in the Grade 1 Malibu was no fluke. As one of the few sprinters to win back-to-back top-level events, this son of Quality Road has climbed the rankings here very fast. The Met Mile is his long-term goal.

Next 5: Army Mule, Whitmore, American Anthem, Ransom the Moon, Coal Front.

Female Sprinter 

1.  Selcourt – The clear leader of the female sprinter division with her third win in as many races in 2018. Her latest was a dismantling of the field in the Grade 1 Santa Monica as she left Paradise Woods and Skye Diamonds in her wake. Could appear next on Derby day in the Humana Distaff with the Beholder Mile in June as another possible goal.

2.  Finley’sluckycharm – Won her first Grade 1 event in the Madison in a blanket finish. Very little separates her from the others below.

3.  Skye Diamonds – Another race against Selcourt and another defeat. Will look to regroup and get back in the win column in her next start.

4.  American Gal – Made her 2018 in a very deep Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland and was only beaten two noses and ahead. Will be tough to beat next time out.

5.  Ami’s Mesa – The Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint runner-up had a tough 2018 debut in the Madison and was only beaten a little over a length. Has every right to improve next out.

Next 5:  Miss Sunset, Curlins Approval, Princess Karen, Marley’s Freedom, Lewis Bay