HRN Division Rankings: Justify in uncharted waters after Derby
Well, another Kentucky Derby
has come and gone, but the memories of Justify crossing the wire first will be
etched in his owners' minds forever.
Justify was a deserving winner. Some will say the muddy tracked helped Justify as after all, he was one of only a few in the race who had experience over that type of surface. I believe he would have won the race regardless of the going.
What does this all mean? Justify is good. Very good. To be able to win the Kentucky Derby in your fourth career start is impressive; the last to do it was Big Brown in 2008. To be able to win the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old, and at only one track previously? Well, that's never before happened. We are in uncharted waters with this new star.
While Justify is much better than Always Dreaming at this time last year, that doesn't mean he will go on to win the Preakness. Because he did not start at age 2, he does lack foundation. In addition, the two-week turnaround to the Preakness always represents a huge obstacle.
It also depends on who shows up to face Justify in the Preakness. I remember the old days when beaten Derby horses would come back and run in the Triple Crown's second leg regardless of who won or where they finished. Oftentimes, they were successful.
In other developments, Beach Patrol and champion Abel Tasman both made their 2018 debuts over the weekend, losing on the undercards at Churchill Downs. Rushing Fall also suffered her first defeat, but it was a stellar effort nonetheless. In my eyes, they each earned a mulligan.
Given that, here is an updated look at HRN's Division Rankings:
Older Dirt Males
1. West Coast – Winless on the year, but I still feel he is the best up to nine furlongs in this division right now. Will have his hands full with the others.
2. City of Light – Not thought of as only a sprinter anymore. This guy is the real deal now with three straight graded stakes wins.
3. Accelerate – Ran a game race in the Oaklawn Handicap, but City of Light proved to be too much. It was 10 lengths back to the third-place finisher.
4. Backyard Heaven – In his first stakes start, he passed the test with flying colors defeating in the Alysheba.
5. Good Samaritan – No real excuse when beaten by over five lengths by Backyard Heaven.
Next 5: Sharp Azteca, Collected, Pavel, Mubtaahij, Army Mule.
Older Dirt Females
1. Abel Tasman – The Eclipse Award winner will get another shot given she jumped straight back to the Grade 1 level off a layoff.
2. Unique Bella – Still searching for her first win outside of her home base of California and her first Grade 1 win around two turns. Her next race will be in early June in either the Grade 1 Beholder Mile or Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes at 8.5 furlongs.
3. Salty – Finally was able to defeat her rival, Abel Tasman. Back to two turns she was very impressive in the Grade 1 La Troienne Stakes.
4. Fault – The former turf star has found a new home on the dirt, with the Adooration her second straight graded stakes win since moving to the main track.
5. Paradise Woods – Should be more effective around two turns and will shoot for the Grade 1 Beholder Mile.
Next 5: Elate, Unbridled Mo, Vale Dori, Martini Glass, Lockdown.
3-Year-Old-Males
1. Justify – Was much the best in the Kentucky Derby, a truly remarkable achievement considering the circumstances.
2. Good Magic – His Kentucky Derby run speaks volumes of his quality. He handled the mud like his daddy did and tried his hardest to pass Justify in the stretch. Would love to see him try again in the Preakness.
3. Audible – The big three here have separated themselves from the rest of the pack. This guy came with his run after being shuffled back to 12th early on. A major player in what appears to be deep division right now.
4. Bolt d’Oro – Tried his best to stay with Justify. But whether it was the track condition, the distance, the competition, or a combination of all of them, it was too much.
5. Magnum Moon – Never had a chance in the Derby as he was banged around and jostled early, middle, and late. The track condition didn’t help, either. A return to dry conditions will serve him well in his next start.
Next 5: Vino Rosso, McKinzie, Hofburg, My Boy Jack, Analyze
It.
3-Year-Old-Females
1. Monomoy Girl – Showed the heart of a champion in turning away rival Wonder Gadot in the stretch of the Kentucky Oaks. The Acorn on Belmont Stakes day will be next.
2. Midnight Bisou – Came with her run in the stretch of the Oaks but it was not enough, as she had to settle for third, beaten little more than four lengths.
3. Caledonia Road – Impressive in her seasonal debut at Belmont with an easy win. She will meet Monomoy Girl in the Acorn.
4. Wonder Gadot – The added distance is just what this filly needed as she gave Monomoy Girl all she could handle in the Oaks. Would like to see her finish off her races with a win instead of settling for second.
5. Dream Tree – Unbeaten filly topped Midnight Bisou twice last year and was primed for a rematch this year before she went to the sidelines.
Next 5: Eskimo Kisses, Mia Mischief, My Miss Lilly, Blamed, Moonshine Memories.
Turf Males
1. World Approval – The Grade 1 Kilroe Mile marked his first loss since June of last year, but he has earned his place here and will maintain his hold for at least another race.
2. Heart to Heart – Two straight Grade 1 wins, the latest in dominant fashion the Maker's 46 Mile at Keeneland, has this guy in the best form of his career and a real threat to World Approval’s hold as the top-ranked horse on the grass.
3. Beach Patrol – Ran well in his seasonal debut beaten less than a length at a distance that may not be his best. Look for him to appear next on Belmont day in the Grade 1 Manhattan.
4. Yoshida – The talent has always been there for this Japanese-bred, and the win over Beach Patrol may be the start of something new. A trip to Royal Ascot appears to be next.
5. Oscar Performance– The best 3-year-old grass horse of 2017 has yet to make his 2018 debut.
Next 5: Synchrony, Bigger Picture, Itsinthepost, Hi Happy, Analyze It.
Turf Females
1. Sistercharlie – Was a major player overseas last year placing in a Group 1 and then shipping here to just miss in last June’s Belmont Oaks. In her first start since that effort, she delivered a facile victory in Keeneland's Jenny Wiley.
2. Fourstar Crook – Validated her last win with a nice runner-up effort to the top one here. Is the real deal, and will tough to beat moving forward.
3. Off Limits – Ran better in her second start this year but had to settle for the show spot in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley with no real excuse.
4. Hawksmoor – Beaten a nose in her 2018 debut at Laurel Park, that race should have her ready for bigger goals ahead.
5. Rushing Fall – Suffered her first loss, but it wasn’t for a lack of effort as she battled with Daddy is a Legend for much of the race, put that one away in the stretch, only to have Toinette sweep on by at the wire to win by a neck.
Next 5: Dona Bruja, Cambodia, Grand Jete, War Flag, Holy Helena.
Male Sprinters
1. Roy H – Had every chance in the stretch to pass X Y Jet but just could not muster enough late punch in the Dubai Golden Shaheen. The 2017 Eclipse Award winner is not taken down from this spot because of one loss. He’s earned his place here for at least another race.
2. X Y Jet – Ran a superb race in Dubai after being headed for the lead at the outset. He looked home free with 200 yards to go but was again nailed on the wire in Dubai, much like he was two years ago.
3. Mind Your Biscuits – Pulled off a remarkable win against the track bias in defeating a superstar field that included our Top 2. As honest as they come, another quality win like Dubai could move him up even higher. He will also point to the Met Mile for his next start.
4. City of Light – Still one of the top sprinters in the country, but now this guy has bigger goals to look forward to. The Met Mile is next.
5. Army Mule – Impressed in the Grade 1 Carter, and could be a future star.
Next
5: Limousine Liberal, Imperial Hint, Whitmore, American Anthem, Coal
Front.
Female Sprinter
1. Selcourt – The clear leader of the female sprinter division with her third win in as many races in 2018. Her latest was a dismantling of the field in the Grade 1 Santa Monica as she left Paradise Woods and Skye Diamonds in her wake.
2. American Gal – Was very impressive in the Humana Distaff defeating an outstanding field rather easily. The Top 2 here have widened the gap from the others.
3. Finley’sluckycharm – The Humana Distaff marked her first loss at Churchill down after six straight wins there.
4. Skye Diamonds – Didn’t run well at all in the Humana Distaff but also may not have cared for the track condition. She's still among the best in this division.
5. Ami’s Mesa – The Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint runner-up had a tough 2018 debut in the Madison and was only beaten a little over a length. Has every right to improve next out.
Next 5: Ivy Bell, Lewis Bay, Miss Sunset, Curlins Approval, Princess Karen.