Gehrke: Two ways to chase a big Kentucky Derby payoff

The Kentucky Derby is the one racing day of the year that I choose to enjoy with friends and, more specifically, non-racing fans. The appeal of this race is simply wider than the rest.

The incentive for most of them, of course, is the potential to make money. Here, I'll discuss ways to wager on the race fit for that type of novice player, but also how I'll be searching for a bigger Derby score on some other tickets.

I devised a fun method with my friends that we use every year on the undercard leading into the Derby. It’s easy for anyone to try regardless of how much time you spend handicapping and is great for any Derby party.

Up to six of us put in $20 to $50 per person, and they entrust me to pick a horse in each race to show. It’s simple for them to understand, plus inexpensive. The goal of this wager is to roll it after every win in hopes of building that bankroll to be used on the Kentucky Derby.

We have been lucky enough to roll it all the way to the Derby in three of the last eight years. In 2014, there were only three of us in on this, and we compounded the total to almost $1,500 for the feature. We made sure the winnings were sliced up into smaller tickets and settled on Danza as our show horse. All eyes were on only one horse for that race, and sure enough, he got up for third and paid $6 to show, giving us around $4500 -- all off of an initial investment of $20.

The “show pool” wager, as we like to call it, is a great and inexpensive way to get your friends excited about the races throughout the day. When it comes to the Derby, though, I am strictly in it for the big score concentrating on the trifecta and superfecta.

With the superfecta minimum at $1, the tickets can be rather large, so this is another situation where it's beneficial to split tickets with friends. Oftentimes, the wager can total well past $300 or $400, but the potential return is well worth it. The trifecta is a bit more manageable, but with a lower reward.

There are infinite ways a handicapper will go about analyzing the Derby field. I use several tools, but I won't take a trainer's word for it. Like death and taxes, a trainer opining that his horse “went really well over the race track," or “couldn't be any better," or “loves it here" are certainties. My advice: Ignore it all.

I construct all tickets with one simple rule: I chose three horses -- no more -- who I feel have the best chance to win the race. Of those three horses, one is usually a longshot. From there, I build my tickets.

It has been well documented that since the advent of the Kentucky Derby points system in 2013, the race has changed dramatically. Gone are the days when stone cold sprinters with high earnings were allowed in the field. Aside from 2013, when Palace Malice donned blinkers for the first time and caused a pace meltdown, the fractions have been sensible. It's no coincidence that the past five Derby winners all possessed early speed to keep them on or near the lead.

Get The Keys To Cashing The Derby Super

It's widely believed that this year’s Derby should be void of an overly fast early pace with only Omaha Beach and Maximum Security having ever won a race going wire to wire. I believe the race flow will follow the last five. The horse that wins must be forwardly placed and can’t be too far out of it early.

Omaha Beach doesn’t need the lead, drew nicely and has shown me the most in the lead-up to Saturday, with clear cut wins over two of his main rivals in this race, Game Winner and Improbable. Omaha Beach is one of the three horses I will use on top Saturday.

Tacitus doesn’t fit the profile of recent Derby winners, as he hasn’t exhibited the same sort of early speed that may be necessary to win. However, I believe he has the best chance to win if the pace is quicker than we anticipate. Tacitus has also shown that he can work his way out of trouble as he did last out in the Wood Memorial.

Last but not least, my longshot who could very well end up in the winner’s circle is Spinoff. This one intrigues me. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Spinoff is flying under the radar, much like another past Pletcher trained horse, 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver.

In his last start, Spinoff was passed late in the Louisiana Derby, but that doesn’t mean he won’t handle the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby. He should only get better off of that last start, only his second of 2019. I expect him to take a major step forward in this, his third start of his form cycle, and fifth start of his career. He also falls into the profile I am looking for if the pace unfolds like we expect. He won’t be too far off of the early leaders and with the right trip could very well be fighting for the lead in the stretch.

Using these three horses on top of tickets, I will fill the slots underneath with several others, but some will have to be eliminated. Master Fencer, Maximum Security, Gray Magician, Plus Que Parfait, Long Range Toddy, Cutting Humor and Haikal, will not be included in my top three. Maybe one or two of these I will leave in the fourth spot on superfecta tickets if the price stays within reason.

Game Winner, Tax, Roadster, Vekoma, and Improbable will all be used somewhere in the underneath spots. Game Winner is most likely to run his usual race. He loves the track, and I expect him to be in the mix down the stretch. Country House, Code of Honor, Win Win Win, By My Standards and War of Will may also be found on the bottom part of some tickets.

Using the horses I like, I can formulate a nice superfecta ticket in $300 to $400 range. I can also split then up in to more manageable tickets that are $100 or less.

Betting this way may not be for everyone, but for me, it’s all about the big score. Granted, you may hit the trifecta or superfecta and just make a small amount, break even or lose money, as I did in 2015 and 2016 when payoffs were small. On the other hand, you could see a windfall, the sort of money we are all after, as my group did in 2010, 2011 and 2014.

Either way, whatever way you choose to wager, good luck, and enjoy racing's biggest day.