Division rankings: Why this Belmont matters more than most

Every year, the Belmont Stakes closes the curtain on the Triple Crown. And when there’s no sweep on the line, the buildup to the Belmont is usually an afterthought. But not this year. This Belmont carries real weight, and the reason is Preakness winner Journalism and to a lesser extent, Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty.

It’s no stretch to say the integrity of the Triple Crown series, as we know it, hinges, in no small way, on how Journalism answers the bell for his third race in five weeks. Meanwhile, his two chief rivals, Sovereignty and Baeza, have been sitting comfortably on the bench, skipping the Preakness and circling this shortened Belmont.

If Journalism shows up and fires, the entire sport wins. If not, brace yourself for another year of the “let’s reinvent the Triple Crown” narrative the talking heads have latched onto, mainly because they’ve run out of better material.

I’ve got plenty more teed up below on the Belmont, on trainer Bill Mott’s head-scratching Preakness commentary, and on the short list of contenders and usual batch of pretenders hoping to crash the party.

First, here’s how the 3-year-old rankings stack up heading into the Belmont. The big question is, can Journalism hang on to that No. 1 spot?

3-year-old males

1. Journalism. Many won't like that I moved him right back to the top, but this is how I see it. I feel his slop loss to Sovereignty at Churchill downs was an aberration. His Preakness score was remarkable, but now the Belmont looms. We will see how things play out, but if the season ended today, ask yourself this question. Which horse would you vote for the Eclipse? My answer is Journalism.

2. Sovereignty. Super impressive in winning the Kentucky Derby, waiting five weeks for the Belmont Stakes. Will have the advantage over Journalism in terms of rest for the Belmont. I tend to believe his Kentucky Derby win was somewhat aided by the slop. He will have no excuses this weekend.

3. Baeza. Drew into the Derby field just days before the race and made the most of it, finishing a strong third and missing second by only a neck. The wise guy for the Belmont, he has had every opportunity his last two starts to defeat Journalism but failed. Not sure why this time will be any different.

4. Burnham Square. Had a horrible trip in the Kentucky Derby but still managed to finish a better-than-it-looked sixth. Before that he won the Blue Grass (G1). Will run in the Matt Wynn (G3) at Churchill this weekend.

5. Sandman. Ran a good third in the Preakness, rebounding from his seventh in Louisville. Before the Derby, he notched his first stakes win in the Arkansas Derby (G1), capitalizing on a pace scenario that was favorable. Will skip the Belmont and point for the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga.

Next 5: Tappan Street, Rodriguez, Gosger, Final Gambit, Tiztastic

I’ve generally liked Bill Mott from afar going all the way back to his days as a trainer of Theatrical and Taylor’s Special in the mid-'80s. But his tone-deaf Preakness comments to the Daily Racing Form made him sound like an obtuse tool. “There was no reason physically why we couldn’t have run in the Preakness. We had no excuse other than we didn’t feel like it. The word Preakness I don’t think ever came up into our conversation. When you have a horse like that, you talk about a lot of things. Preakness was not one of them.”

In a sport desperate for its stars to show up for the big races, that kind of shrug-your-shoulders, arrogant approach does nothing for the game or for Sovereignty’s legacy. In my opinion it’s exactly the kind of attitude the embattled Triple Crown series can’t afford right now.

I’m well aware half the readers will disagree with my take, and that’s perfectly fine. I stand by it. Some things in this sport need to be said, even if it could ruffle a few feathers. 

When it comes to Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty, I’m a fan. His Derby win was stellar, no question. But let’s not ignore the fact that the sloppy track that day didn’t hurt. If we have a fast racetrack Saturday, one could make a fair argument that Sovereignty could be fourth best. 

Meanwhile, the so-called wise guy horse seems to be Baeza, the Derby show horse. I like Baeza too, and I think he has the best shot of any to come away victorious. But how is he supposed to beat Journalism now, after failing twice before when Baeza had the clean trips and Journalism was the one with the trouble? He’ll be an underlay. 

Of the rest, only Rodriguez looks remotely capable of cracking the top three. He’s playing a supporting role here. Last time he tangled with Journalism, he got waxed by over 10 lengths. His best puts him in the mix for an underneath spot. 

Baeza and Sovereignty come in fresh from sitting out the Preakness, but remember, some horses thrive on activity. Journalism seems to be one of them. Not only do I expect Journalism to win Saturday, I think we could be in for another special race from this son of Curlin. He’s overdue for a clean trip, and if he finally gets it, the rest are running for second. 

As for the others entered, don’t kid yourself. Hill Road, Uncaged, Crudo, and Heart of Honor are background extras in this Belmont drama starring the Kentucky Derby top three finishers. 

For one week, I’ll admit it, I’m a tiny bit biased toward one horse. As I wrote above, the entire sport wins if Journalism wins the Belmont Stakes.

Older dirt males

1. White Abarrio. White Abarrio followed up his dominant Pegasus World Cup (G1) score with a confident win in the Ghostzapper (G3) at Gulfstream. The 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner looks to keep the momentum rolling with his next target, the prestigious Metropolitan Mile (G1) on Saturday. A big effort there keeps him squarely in the horse-of-the-year conversation.

2. Fierceness. After a an extended layoff, Fierceness finally returned and didn’t disappoint. He cruised to a sharp win in the Alysheba (G1) at 8 1/2 furlongs on Kentucky Oaks day, showing more maturity. Up next is a start in the Met Mile, where he’ll look to further solidify his standing in this division.

3. Hit Show. His win in the Dubai World Cup (G1) might have been a surprise to some, but not here. If he can bring that form back to the U.S., he will be a major player in this division. Will run next in the Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill Downs.

4. Locked. Turned in the worst performance of his career in the Alysheba, finishing a distant fourth and beaten by more than six lengths. That effort was in sharp contrast to his previous outing, a dominant win in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). Will likely run next in the Suburban (G2) at Saratoga over 10 furlongs.

5. First Mission. Ran the race of his life in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2), handling a tough crew of Grade 2 and Grade 3 veterans. He’s still chasing that elusive Grade 1 win, but with only 12 starts under his belt two starts into his 5-year-old season, there’s still time. The Stephen Foster in late June at Churchill Downs is next.

Next five: Sierra Leone,  Mindframe, Most Wanted, Mystik Dan, Hall of Fame 

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. I can’t say I was shocked to see her finish off the board in the La Troienne (G1). The warning signs were there in her first two starts this year. She just hasn’t looked like the same filly from last season. For now, she holds the top spot and targets the Fleur de Lis (G2) at Churchill this month.

2. Cavalieri. Undefeated and getting better with each start, but she’s skipping major races like they’re optional Zoom calls. No Apple Blossom (G1), no La Troienne, and now no Santa Margarita (G2). Championships aren’t won in the barn. If she keeps ghosting big races, she will drop in the rankings. She’s not expected back until Del Mar.

3. Richi. She steamrolled the Santa Maria (G2) at Santa Anita, opening up by more than four lengths and giving a nice boost to Cavalieri, who beat her the race before. This Chilean import has done nothing but impress since arriving stateside. She has five solid efforts since June, plus a Group 1 win at 10 furlongs back home. She’s got stamina, class and momentum. A serious player in this division.

4. Raging Sea. The good news? She won the La Troienne in her seasonal debut. The bad news? From a speed-figure standpoint, it was one of the slowest Grade 1 wins by an older dirt female ever. She will get another shot at a big score in the Ogden Phipps (G1) on Friday.

5. Power Squeeze. She ran surprisingly well last time out in the Ghostzapper (G3), finishing second to White Abarrio and hanging in tough with the big boy. No one in this division has tackled tougher company in 2025, having squared off against males twice. Will run next in the Ogden Phipps on Friday.

Next five: Randomized, Royal Spa, Gin Gin, Seismic Beauty, Candied

3-year-old fillies

1. Good Cheer. Dominant winner of the Kentucky Oaks (G1), she is now an eye-catching 7-for-7 in her career. She will head to the Acorn (G1) on Friday to try to make it eight wins in a row.

2. Quietside. Didn’t look like she cared for the slop in the Kentucky Oaks, fading to sixth. Before that, she delivered a gutsy win in the Fantasy (G2), outdueling Simply Joking in a thrilling stretch battle.

3. Tenma. Ran better than I expected in the Kentucky Oaks when attending a quick pace but faltering late to finish fourth. Previously she scored in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2).

4. La Cara. She might not have handled the wet track in the Kentucky Oaks, finishing a distant ninth, but I’m not ready to drop her just yet. Her win in the Ashland (G1) and runner-up effort in the Davona Dale (G2) still carry weight, so she holds onto a top-five spot for now. Will also run in the Acorn.

5. Drexel Hill. The Kentucky Oaks runner-up was coming off a listed-stakes win in the Busher at Aqueduct. 

Next five: Five G, Nitrogen, Simply Joking, Muhimma, Look Forward

Turf males

1. Spirit of St Louis. Scored a popular win in the Turf Classic (G1) on Kentucky Derby day, giving him two Grade 1 wins already this season. Set to run next in the Manhattan (G1) on Belmont Stakes day, and earning a third Grade 1 win by midseason would be a rarity for this division in today’s era.

2. Far Bridge. He scored another win in the Man o' War (G2) at Aqueduct. Before that he kicked off 2025 with a hard-fought neck victory in the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream. He has won four of his last five starts in what is suddenly a very interesting male grass division. Will run next in the Manhattan (G1) on Belmont day. 

3. Carl Spackler. Returned this season with authority, romping in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland and reminding everyone why he’s a force on turf. With Grade 1 wins in three of his last four starts, he is back near the top of a division that looks deep for the first time in years. Now he's been sold and will run overseas with Royal Ascot as his next target. Will drop out of these rankings soon.

4. Johannes. Kept his hot streak going with a win in the San Gabriel (G2) in December, capping off a stellar 2024 campaign with five graded-stakes victories from six starts. His only loss came as a runner-up to More Than Looks in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Back in training now, and I'm hoping to see him back at the races soon.

5. Think Big. This turf sprinter has won the two biggest turf-sprint stakes in the U.S. this season, the Shakertown (G2) at Keeneland and the Turf Sprint (G2) at Churchill Downs. Runs this weekend in the Jaipur (G1) at Saratoga.

Next five: King of Gosford, Integration, Dashman, Formidable Man, Utah Beach

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. Kicked off her 2025 campaign in style with an easy win in the Modesty (G3) at Churchill on Kentucky Oaks day. She ended her stellar 3-year-old season with back-to-back Grade 1 victories in the Queen Elizabeth II at Keeneland and the American Oaks at Santa Anita. She picks up right where she left off, reclaiming the top spot in the division. Will run next in the New York Stakes (G1) at Saratoga.

2. Choisya. Hard to say she was truly best in the Jenny Wiley (G1), considering the interference with runner-up Excellent Truth. After an objection and steward’s review, she stayed up, and that's a call I wouldn’t have made. Still, she’s 3-for-3 this season. Will return for the Just a Game (G1) on Friday.

3. Excellent Truth. She was clearly best in the Jenny Wiley but had to settle for second behind Choisya in her seasonal debut. She is also running in the Just a Game (G1) for her next start.

4. Kehoe Beach. Ran a career-best race in the Jenny Wiley, where she finished a good third in her seasonal debut. Big things are expected from this daughter of Omaha Beach in 2025. Entered in the Just a Game.

5. Be Your Best. An East Coast grass mare shipping west and romping in the Gamely (G1) is rare, but she made it look easy. Although she had prior experience over the Santa Anita turf, this marked her first Grade 1 win. Now 2-for-3 on the season, she also kicked off the year with a win in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2).

Next five: Saffron Moon, Gimme a Nother, Beach Bomb, Lady Claypoole, Sacred Wish

Male sprinters

1. Straight No Chaser. The reigning Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion disappointed in Dubai, finishing eighth in the Golden Shaheen (G1). Before that he kicked off 2025 with a win in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) in Saudi Arabia. Targeting the Bing Crosby (G1) at Del Mar in late July for his next start.

2. Nysos. Scored a big win in the Triple Bend (G3) last out and before that was a close second sprinting in the Churchill Downs Stakes. Until he stretches back out, he is ranked in this division.

3. Raging Torrent. Scored a big win in the Godolphin Mile (G2) at Meydan and collected a win in the Malibu (G1) in December. He faced Straight No Chaser in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall and finished well back. Will run in the Met Mile this weekend.

4. Mindframe. I'm slotting him into this division because his only stakes win came sprinting. And last time out, he beat a tough field in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), so he’s earned his spot here.

5. Book'em Danno. Suffered a brutal defeat, losing by two heads and a neck to finish fourth in the Churchill Downs Stakes. But he showed he belongs with the division's elite, and that’s enough to keep his spot in the rankings intact. Will run next in the Truth North (G3) at Saratoga.

Next five: Mullikin, Booth, Big City Lights, Nakatomi, Mufasa

Female sprinters

1. Kopion. Made a mockery of her 8-1 morning line in the Derby City Distaff (G1), storming home with authority and leaving no doubt who rules this division. That’s three graded-stakes wins in a row, each faster than anything we’ve seen from any division this season.

2. Nic's Style. This Florida-bred is 7-for-8 in her career, her only loss a runner-up to Ways and Means last year in the Gallant Bloom (G2). She won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) last out for her fourth win in a row. A serious player in this division.

3. Richi. Turned in a facile win last out while stretching out in the Santa Maria, showing she’s just as effective going longer. Earlier in the season, she was runner-up to Cavalieri in the Beholder Mile (G1) and third behind Kopion in the Santa Monica (G2) after kicking off her campaign with a win sprinting in the Las Flores (G3). 

4. Hope Road. Second best once again to the division leader in the Derby City Distaff for her second straight runner-up finish. But this time she outran several other top members of this division, cementing her place in this top five.

5. Ways and Means. Returned in the Derby City Distaff to finish third to the top-ranked horse in this division. Runs next in the Bed o' Roses (G2) on Friday.

Next five: Two Sharp, Emery, Positano Sunset, Scylla, Pleasant.