Division rankings: Whitney shifts spotlight to older males

This week’s column was a coin flip: Head west to Del Mar, where two of the leading ladies on the dirt clash in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch, or stay east and zero in on the Whitney (G1), where Fierceness, Sierra Leone and White Abarrio will try to right their respective ships.

The coin landed on Saratoga.

Mindframe, the division’s current no. 1 in my rankings, also is entered but  is likely to bow out in favor of Fierceness, the stablemate his connections clearly hold in higher regard. More on that and the Whitney in a moment, but first, here’s how my rankings stack up heading into the weekend, with three of the top five set to run.

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He kept his unbeaten 2025 campaign rolling with a popular win in the Stephen Foster (G1), planting his flag atop the older dirt male division for now. But he gives off strong Liam’s Map vibes, very good up to nine furlongs but unlikely to stretch his game to classic territory. As with Liam, don’t be shocked if his Breeders’ Cup destination is the Dirt Mile as the barn’s main classic ammo, Fierceness, aims for the Classic. Likely to be scratched from the Whitney.

2. Raging Torrent. He’s 2-for-2 this year, with a Dubai win in the Godolphin Mile (G2) and a Met Mile (G1) score where he knocked off the division’s previous top two. He's ranked second for now, but with his recent retirement he will drop. Stays here now because he is top three and top three here go on my ballot.

3. Fierceness. No excuses when runner-up in the Met Mile. We are halfway through the season and this guy has just one Grade 2 win. He will run in the Whitney at Saratoga this weekend.

4. White Abarrio. He too had no excuses in the Met Mile, where he finished a distant fourth. He did win his previous two starts this season, a dominant Pegasus World Cup (G1) score and a confident win in the Ghostzapper (G3) at Gulfstream. Also will start next in the Whitney.

5. Sierra Leone. Showed up again with his run in a major race as he closed well to be runner-up to Mindframe in the Stephen Foster (G1). Will be very dangerous when he gets back to 10 furlongs and the Breeders' Cup Classic. The Whitney is next at Saratoga.

Next five: Nysos, Locked, Hit Show, Skippylongstocking, Most Wanted.

Who could have predicted that by August, last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Classic 1-2 finishers would have only four combined starts and a single Grade 2 win between them? Yet, despite the lack of top-level success, Fierceness and Sierra Leone remain firmly in the divisional picture, thanks to the recent retirement of Met Mile winner Raging Torrent and the apparent decision by the connections of current leader Mindframe to skip this crucial race and watch from the sidelines. 

If Mindframe does indeed scratch, it’s a squandered opportunity. A third Grade 1 win this season against this field would have made him very difficult to catch in the Eclipse race. 

Fierceness will try to accomplish something rare in today’s game, win a Grade 1 race in his third straight season. His last start came in the Met Mile, where he finished second as the favorite behind Raging Torrent over a sloppy track, the same type of surface that gave him trouble way back in his second career start when he finished off the board. Maybe, just maybe, he had an excuse. 

He’ll face a familiar rival in Sierra Leone. The two split their four meetings last year, but this time Sierra Leone is in a must-win spot. Unlike last season, a Breeders’ Cup Classic victory probably won’t be enough to clinch an Eclipse for him without a win here. His 2024 campaign has been stop-and-start, with a dull third in his March debut at Fair Grounds, then a much-improved runner-up finish in the Stephen Foster last month, where he fell just a length short of Mindframe. 

Adding intrigue, Sierra Leone’s connections have entered Contrary Thinking. It’s a throwback move by Chad Brown, deploying what’s commonly called a rabbit, a horse entered to guarantee an honest pace, often to aid a stablemate. Brown also believes Contrary Thinking can grab a share, but make no mistake, this helps Sierra Leone. I love the move. It reminds me of a time when deploying rabbits were standard tactics. 

In case you’re new to the term, a rabbit is a horse entered primarily to force a strong early pace, softening up-front running rivals for the closer in the barn. 

We’ve seen it before. In 2005, Fierceness’s trainer, Todd Pletcher, sent out Bishop Court Hill in the Travers (G1) to keep things honest for Flower Alley. A decade earlier, D. Wayne Lukas famously used Comanche Trail to try to unsuccessfully wear down Holy Bull in the 1994 Travers for Tabasco Cat. Go back further and the list of examples only grows. 

And then there’s White Abarrio. He won this race two years ago before going on to capture the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and earlier this season he took the Pegasus World Cup (G1). His last outing in the Met Mile was a muddy mess, finishing fourth over that sloppy surface. If he shows up with his A game, he’ll likely end up in the winner’s circle. 

As for the rest of the field? It would take all three headliners misfiring for any of the supporting cast to sniff the winner’s circle.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Rebounded from her off-the-board finish in the La Troienne (G1) to score a facile win in the Fleur de Lis (G2) at Churchill Downs. Although her numbers are historically slow for a top-ranked member of this division, she continues to be the clear leader in the division, mostly because no one else has pieced together a résumé strong enough to challenge her. She is scheduled to run next in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga.

2. Leslie's Rose. Scored her first graded-stakes win this season in the Shuvee (G2) at Saratoga. Was third earlier this season in the Vagrancy (G3).

3. Randomized. Ended a three-race losing streak with a nice win in the Molly Pitcher (G3) over a good field. Was third earlier this season in the La Troienne (G1).

4. Richi. She steamrolled the Santa Maria (G2) at Santa Anita, opening up by more than four lengths and giving a nice boost to Cavalieri, who beat her the race before. This Chile import has done nothing but impress since arriving stateside. She has five solid efforts since June, plus a Group 1 win at 10 furlongs back home. She’s got stamina, class and momentum. A serious player in this division who will run this weekend in the Clement Hirsch at Del Mar. An impressive win moves her closer to the top.

5. Cavalieri. Undefeated and getting better with each start, but she’s skipping major races. No Apple Blossom (G1), no La Troienne and no Santa Margarita (G2). Championships aren’t won in the barn. If she keeps ghosting big races, she will continues to drop in the rankings. 

Next five: Dazzling Move, Dorth Vader, Raging Sea, Power Squeeze, Royal Spa.

3-year-old males

1. Sovereignty. Took care of business in the Jim Dandy (G2) and will now head to the Travers, where another meeting with Journalism and Baeza is possible. The Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner holds all the cards in the division right now.

2. Journalism. Showed up again in a big Grade 1 event and delivered, this time in the Haskell. His three top-level scores this season are the most of any in this division. Likely to go next in the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar.

3. Baeza. Ran his heart out in the Jim Dandy only to be second best, dropping a one-length decision to Sovereignty. Still in search of his first stakes win, but he is clearly in the top three of his division despite that fact. 

4. Magnitude. I’m bumping this guy all the way into the top five, even if his Iowa Derby comeback was basically a glorified allowance win. Before that, he romped in the Risen Star (G2) over a sloppy Fair Grounds track with an eye-popping figure. If you trust the numbers, he’s right there with the division’s top two. And as a confirmed front runner, he adds a new wrinkle to an already compelling group.

5. Gosger. Would be a dual Grade 1 winner if not for the heroics of Journalism. His last two starts, the Preakness and Haskell, have been solid runner-up finishes. Won the Lexington (G3) earlier this season.

Next 5: East Avenue, Sandman, Burnham Square, Coal Battle, Goal Oriented.

3-year-old fillies

1. Good Cheer. She doesn't lose her spot here after one loss, as she had built up a sizable lead. Like Raging Sea in the Phipps, her loss in the Acorn (G1) wasn't very surprising given her numbers in previous starts. Will try to right the ship in her next start, the Alabama (G1) on Aug. 16.

2. La Cara. Dominant winner of the Acorn last time out, she now has two Grade 1 wins on the season after previously scoring in the Ashland at Keeneland. 

3. Scottish Lassie. Dont look now but this gal is very close to the top now after a dominating score in the CCA Oaks (G1). Before that she was third in the Acorn. Will run next in the Alabama.

4. Nitrogen. This turf standout finally tasted defeat in the Belmont Oaks, finishing a close second and ending her five-race win streak. Her connections are pivoting back to dirt for the Alabama in August, a surface she tried earlier this season, romping by 17 lengths in the slop against a field of two.

5. Quietside. Didn’t look like she cared for the slop in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), fading to sixth. Before that, she delivered a gutsy win in the Fantasy (G2), outdueling Simply Joking in a thrilling stretch battle.

Next five: Tenma, Drexel Hill, Five G, Simply Joking, Muhimma.

Turf males

1. Far Bridge. This guy validated why I have had him in this spot for weeks. He dominated the short field in the Bowling Green (G2), winning his third graded stakes this season. Gets the slight nod here over Spirit of St Louis because of his head-to-head win. Will run next in the Sword Dancer (G1), a race he won last year.

2. Spirit of St Louis. He’s made a habit of trading wins and losses. After finishing off the board in the Manhattan (G1), it was easy to forget he was the star of the Turf Classic (G1) on Kentucky Derby day, a win that gave him two Grade 1 scores already this season. He's 2-for-4 on the season, and in his two losses he was off the board. Runs this weekend in the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga.

3. Deterministic. Scored a big win in the shortened Manhattan run at nine furlongs the day after the Belmont Stakes. The Manhattan was his first Grade 1 win. He is 2-for-3 on the season, previously scoring in the Fort Marcy (G2) at Aqueduct. Also entered in the Fourstardave.

4. Integration. His Manhattan runner-up finish was his third in Grade 1 company this season.

5. Johannes. Scheduled to make his return this weekend in the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga. Last out he won the San Gabriel (G2) in December, capping off a stellar 2024 campaign with five graded-stakes victories from six starts. His only loss last season came as a runner-up to More Than Looks in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. 

Next five: Formidable Man, King of Gosford, Dashman, Redistricting, Utah Beach.

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. She doesn't dropped from this spot off of her narrow last-out loss to Excellent Truth in the Diana (G1). She was arguably the best in the race trip-wise as she ran about a length farther than her rival. Previously she scored in the New York Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. 

2. Excellent Truth. She finally broke through for her first Grade 1 win last time out in the Diana after finishing runner-up in her three prior attempts. The win, though impressive, isn't enough for me to push her above She Feels Pretty, who would prevail if the Eclipse vote were held today.

3. Be Your Best. An East Coast grass mare shipping west and romping in the Gamely (G1) is rare, but she made it look easy. Although she had prior experience over the Santa Anita turf, this marked her first Grade 1 win. Now 2-for-3 on the season, she kicked off the year with a win in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2).

4. Dynamic Pricing. Was third in the Diana, over four lengths behind the top two ranked in this division. Before that she scored a win in the Just a Game for her first top-level score. 

5. Beach Bomb. Ran very well in the New York to be second best to She Feels Pretty. She scored wins earlier this season in the Orchid (G3) and The Very One (G3) at Gulfstream.

Next five: Kehoe Beach, Ag Bullet, Saffron Moon, Choisya, Bellezza.

Male sprinters

1. Book'em Danno. Keeps getting better with every start. Comes in off back-to-back wins, highlighted by a dominant Vanderbilt (G2) score over Mullikin and Nakatomi, which followed his True North (G2) victory over that same duo.

2. Raging Torrent. He scored his biggest career win in the Met Mile, defeating a small but solid field. His only loss in his last seven starts was last fall's Breeders' Cup Sprint. Since retired, he stays ranked here for now.

3. Straight No Chaser. The reigning Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion disappointed in Dubai, finishing eighth in the Golden Shaheen (G1). Before that he kicked off 2025 with a win in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) in Saudi Arabia. Targeting the Pat O'Brien (G2) at Del Mar in August for his next start.

4. Mindframe. I'm keeping him here because hie scored a Grade 1 win sprinting in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), so he’s earned his spot. Although I doubt we will see him sprinting again this season, there is a chance he will be back at a mile come Breeders' Cup time.

5. Nysos. Stretched out last out in the San Diego (G2) to score another win. Probably won't be sprinting again this season as he will stretch out even more next out in the Pacific Classic (G1). Previously he scored in the Triple Bend (G3) and before that was a close third sprinting in the Churchill Downs Stakes. Stays in this spot for now.

Next five: Mullikin, Booth, Lovesick Blues, Big City Lights, Nakatomi.

Female sprinters

1. Kopion. Despite her loss to Sweet Azteca in the Great Lady M (G2) last out, she still holds on to this top spot. Before this loss, she made a mockery of her 8-1 morning line in the Derby City Distaff (G1), storming home with authority. With Kopion, Sweet Azteca and Ways and Means all likely headed to the Breeders' Cup at Del Mar, this top-heavy division is shaping up to deliver one of the Breeders’ Cup’s marquee showdowns. Will run this weekend in the Clement Hirsch in an attempt to stretch out to see whether she can make her way into the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

2. Sweet Azteca. Scored a remarkable comeback win in the Great Lady M, where she defeated Kopion. This came nine months to the day after her last race, a stunning off-the-board finish at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth (G3) at Santa Anita. Before that loss she had won three graded stakes in a row. Obviously a major player in this division when she is right.

3. Ways and Means. Absolutely dominated the Bed o' Roses (G2), drawing off by more than seven lengths and staking her claim as likely the top female sprinter on the East Coast. Before that, she was a solid third in the Derby City Distaff (G1) behind the top-ranked Kopion.

4. Two Sharp. Has made only one appearance this season but made it count, cruising to an easy win in the Winning Colors (G3) at Churchill Downs, taking down Hope Road and the rest with little trouble.

5. Nic's Style. This Florida-bred is 7-for-8 in her career, her only loss a runner-up to Ways and Means last year in the Gallant Bloom (G2). She won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) last out for her fourth win in a row. A serious player in this division.

Next five: Richi, Hope Road, Scylla, Vahva, Positano Sunset.