Division rankings: Track Phantom following a familiar Ky Derby path

In recent years, the Louisiana path to the Kentucky Derby has grown in significance. Previously, horses from Fair Grounds didn't attract much attention for the Kentucky Derby, and even if they did, they often failed to meet expectations.

But in 2020, Fair Grounds made notable improvements to its racing schedule, adjusting spacing and distances for the quartet of 3-year-old stakes starting in December and concluding with the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in March.

The impact of these changes was immediate, with a number of horses emerging from Fair Grounds since 2020 and making an impact not only on the Kentucky Derby but also on other Triple Crown events.

This weekend's favorite for the Louisiana Derby, Track Phantom, epitomizes the success of these changes. He has fully capitalized on this schedule by participating in all three preceding stakes, and this weekend he will try to add the Louisiana Derby.

Before I touch on what I think is the best 3-year-old male stakes program to prepare horses for the spring classics, and some thoughts on Track Phantom, let's take a look at this week's updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Señor Buscador. Scored a wildly popular win in the Saudi Cup (G1), narrowly edging the Japanese star Ushba Tesoro. Before the Saudi Cup, he was a narrow runner-up to National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1). Has to be ranked atop of the heap in this division, for now at least. Will run next in the Dubai World Cup (G1) next weekend.

2. National Treasure. His fourth-place effort in the Saudi Cup was a  good effort, losing by a little under two lengths. The Pegasus World Cup winner stays here at No. 2 as he reaffirmed what he has shown us in his last three starts, that he has matured into a serious horse. Has returned to the U.S. for the remainder of the season where he will hopefully return to the racetrack.

3. Saudi Crown. Nearly pulled off a Saudi Cup win, tiring late to finish third, beaten 3/4 of a length. Will run next weekend in the Godolphin Mile (G2) and is a serious player in any race up to nine furlongs.

4. White Abarrio. No excuses when off the board in the Saudi Cup, and one has to wonder whether running overseas with his trainer under a microscope had anything to do with it. The Breeders' Cup Classic winner from last season will run the rest of the year in the U.S., where he will try to get back to the dramatic form reversal we witnessed over his three starts before the Saudi Cup. Will be interesting to see whether he returns to the races.

5. Newgate. Game winner of a thrilling edition of the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), he is now headed for Dubai and the World Cup next weekend. The Big 'Cap was his second graded-stakes win.

Next 5: Arabian Knight, Angel of Empire, Disarm, Subsanador, Newgrange

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Gutsy winner of the Breeders' Cup Distaff, she returns as defending champion of this division after having won the Eclipse. Finished 8-for-9 in 2023, a tally that includes three Grade 1 wins. Back working, she likely will return on May 3 in the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs.

2. Sweet Azteca. Won her first graded stakes last out in the Beholder Mile (G1). She is 3-for-4 in her short career thus far.

3. Pretty Mischievous. The 3-year-old female Eclipse winner from 2023, this gal will return to the races this season.

4. Randomized. Runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Distaff as a 3-year-old, she came on late at the end of last season. Scored in the Beldame (G2) over older for her second graded-stakes win before the Distaff, and last summer she won the Alabama (G1). Could be a serious player in this division.

5. Adare Manor. Runner-up to Sweet Azteca in the Beholder Mile, she never saw the lead but did close near the end and ran well given the circumstances. Still a major player out west.

Next 5: Desert Dawn, Bellamore, Comparative, Xigera, Wet Paint

3-year-old males

1. Nysos. Unbeaten in three starts, this son of Nyquist has the look of a superstar. Still a long way to go, but he certainly is the leader of this division at the moment. On the shelf for at least a month because of physical issues and could drop from this spot in the next couple of weeks.
2. Muth. Made his 3-year-old debut in January and impressed to win going away in the San Vicente (G2). Last season at age 2 he was second best in the Breeders' Cup and won the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita. He too can drop from this spot in the coming weeks with lack racing.
3. Hades. Surprised in the Holy Bull (G3), running his record to 3-for-3. Still, the race came back with slow figures, and runner-up Domestic Product came back to win the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) last week in a historically slow race speed-figure-wise. Will run in the Florida Derby (G1) next weekend.

4. Timberlake. A Grade 1 winner at age 2, he made his first appearance at age 3 a winning one in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn last month. The field he defeated was suspect as none of the entrants had a stakes win on their resume, so we need to pump the brakes and keep him in this spot. Will run in the Arkansas Derby (G1) next weekend.

5. Sierra Leone. Others are quick to pull the trigger and bump this guy to the top of their 3-year-old and Kentucky Derby rankings, but I do things differently. He won the Risen Star Stakes (G2) last out for his first stakes win, but it came in the slop, which often produces one-off results. So I don't buy into the hyperbole just yet, and while the horse he defeated in his Remsen (G2) win at age 2, Dornoch, came back to win his 3-year-old debut, it was in a historically slow Fountain of Youth. Will ship to Keeneland and run next in the Blue Grass (G1) on April 6. I do like this guy much more than the much-hyped Dornoch.

Next 10: Dornoch, Track Phantom, Domestic Product Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Just a Touch, Catching Freedom, Imagination, Deterministic, Honor Marie

3-year-old females

1. Kinza. Has been dominant in all three of her career starts, running faster than any other in this division. Already has two graded-stakes wins this season.

2. Jody's Pride. Runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, her only loss in three starts. Ran well in her 3-year-old debut, running away with the Busher at Aqueduct.

3. Just F Y I. Looked very good winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and then won the Eclipse as the top 2-year-old female. Scratched out of the Davona Dale (G2) and will need to run soon before she drops further.

4. Tarifa. The winner of the Rachel Alexandra (G2) last out, she will try to make it two graded stakes in a row this weekend in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). She is 3-for-4 in her career thus far.

5. Tamara. Disappointed as the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies but was found afterward to have a cracked splint bone. This daughter of Beholder won the Del Mar Debutante (G1) rather easily in her start before the Breeders' Cup. She is back jogging, but like Just F Y I, she is a wildcard at age 3 and will drop with lack of action.

Next 5: Candied, Hard to Justify, Intricate, Fiona's Magic, Lemon Muffin

Turf males

1. Casa Creed. Beaten by only a half-length in the Breeders' Cup Mile, this guy was never off the board in 2023, going 2-for-5 with one Grade 1 win. Missed the Saudi Arabia trip because of a fever.

2. I'm Very Busy. Runner-up in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), which was his first start since a runner-up effort in the Hill Prince (G2) last November at age 3. Trained by Chad Brown, he could contend in a wide-open division. Will run this weekend in the Muniz (G2) at Fair Grounds.

3. Du Jour. Overpowered the Kilroe Mile (G1) field last out for his first Grade 1 win. Previous to that he was off the board in the Breeder's Cup Mile and won one graded stakes in 2023.

4. Program Trading. Won the Hollywood Derby (G1) in his last start in December. Now age 4, he should be even better.

5. Gold Phoenix. Had an up-and-down 2023, which saw him win three graded stakes, including the Kilroe Mile (G1). But he also was off the board in four graded stakes. One of those, the Breeders' Cup Turf, was a nice performance as he finished fourth, beaten by only a little over two lengths.

Next 5: Emannuel, Easter, Exaulted, Never Explain, Missed the Cut

Turf females

1. In Italian. Robbed of the Eclipse Award last season, she starts on top this season. She had two Grade 1 wins last season and narrowly missed in two others.

2. Didia. The winner of the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January, she won two graded stakes last season and was 10th in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

3. Gina Romantica. She made only four starts in 2023 but scored a big win in the First Lady (G1) and then finished a very good fourth last out in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

4. Moira. She won only once in 2023, but she was very good in all of her starts. Last out she finished third in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She was in the money in stakes in all six of her starts in 2023.

5. Bellabel. Won the Megahertz (G3) last out in her first start since late 2022. She was in the money with one win in three graded stakes in 2022, so perhaps she can be a player in this division.

Next 5: War Like Goddess, Ruby Nell, Alpha Bella, Surge Capacity, R Calli Kim

Male sprinters

1. Speed Boat Beach. He inherits the top spot here with Elite Power and Gunite now retired. After finishing fourth in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last November, he scored a facile win in the Malibu (G1) at Santa Anita in late December.

2. Skelly. Ran well in Saudi Arabia, finishing runner-up in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3). Before that he won the King Cotton Stakes at Oaklawn in his first start of 2024. Last season he was 6-for-7, which included the Count Fleet (G3) as his only graded-stakes win. Major contender in this division now moving forward.

3. The Chosen Vron. Won again last out, this time in the San Carlos (G3) for this third straight win since his fifth in last November's Breeders' Cup Sprint. He has won 16 of his 21 career starts and is tops out west in this division. The only question for this guy in 2024 will be if he can hang with the best in this division.

4. Hoist the Gold. His connections tried to stretch him out last time in the Pegasus World Cup, but that experiment failed as he faded to finish fourth. Won the Cigar Mile (G2) last fall. His connections still believed he can route, so he ran in the Saudi Cup. Another failed run going longer, this time a 14th place in the Saudi Cup. Hopefully they get him back sprinting where he belongs.

5. Sibelius. Won the Feb. 10 Pelican Stakes at Tampa, defeating Nakatomi. He previously scored in the Mr. Prospector (G3) at Gulfstream in December. Now he heads to Dubai next weekend looking for a repeat win in the Golden Shaheen (G1).

Next 5:  Nakatomi, Super Chow, Tejano Twist, Raise Cain, Nobals

Who can go the Louisiana Derby distance?

Track Phantom will try to emulate Epicenter's feat and become only the second horse to finish either first or second in all four of the Fair Ground stakes on the track's path to the Kentucky Derby.

The progression of the 3-year-old route stakes in the Fair Grounds program is notable, starting with the 1 1/16-mile Gun Runner in December, followed by the Lecomte (G3) in January at the same distance, progressing to nine furlongs in the Risen Star (G3) in February, which serves as prep for the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2) in late March.

The Louisiana Derby is the longest graded stakes for 3-year-old males on dirt in the U.S. before the Kentucky Derby. This series of races offers a nice preparation for the Triple Crown events.

In the years since these race changes, Mandaloun and Epicenter finished as runners-up in the Kentucky Derby, underscoring the impact of horses emerging from Fair Grounds. Numerous others from Fair Grounds also have left their mark on the classic races in the spring.

Track Phantom will undoubtedly be the favorite this weekend, but there's another contender who offers great value.

Honor Marie (No. 15) made his 3-year-old debut in the Risen Star but fell short of expectations, finishing fifth. Despite this, Honor Marie had previously shown his talent by winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old.

But the Risen Star took place on an off track, so I am going to toss that last effort and give him another chance. With a fast track expected this weekend, I anticipate Honor Marie will perform much better. At morning-line odds of 8-1, I consider him an overlay.

Other contenders such as Catching Freedom, third in the Risen Star, wouldn’t surprise here. Many are high on the maiden winner Hall of Fame. I am not. Agate Road exits a runner-up finish to No More Time in the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa, but a win here would be an upset.

In my view, the primary challenge for Track Phantom is the distance. The 9 1/2 furlongs might prove to be a bit too demanding for the son of Quality Road. Bit that's what makes this event intriguing, isn't it?

The Louisiana Derby’s unique distance helps us narrow down our list of potential Kentucky Derby contenders.