Division rankings: Alabama is an opportunity for Wet Paint

Two months ago the 3-year-old filly Eclipse picture looked pretty clear. Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous won the Acorn (G1) on Belmont Stakes day to cement her lead in the division. The gap between Pretty Mischievous and the rest of her division appeared wide, with no other looking like a contender to challenge her.

But then Pretty Mischievous’s connections decided to forego pointing to the traditional late summer goal for Kentucky Oaks winners, the Alabama (G1) at Saratoga, and instead point for a sprint race, the Test (G1).

It was an interesting decision, one that could have great ramifications when it comes time to cast votes.

This weekend one of the horses with a chance to unseat Pretty Mischievous at the top, Wet Paint, is running in the Alabama. If Wet Paint wins and scores her second straight Grade 1 event, she will be back in the thick of things in this division.

Before I dive in to Wet Paint and the Alabama, check out the updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Cody's Wish. We are nearly three-quarters of a way through the season, and this division is in disarray. This guy stays up top here despite his loss in the Whitney (G1) because who else has a resume good enough to be here? I warned everyone about his distance limitations, and now that debate is over. He will cut back now and point to the Breeders' Cup Mile. Is in the same boat as Mitole was a few years back, except this division is even more suspect. Although no horse has won the Eclipse in this division who hasn’t won at nine furlongs or more since the inception of the awards more than 50 years ago, I could see a path for him to be the first if a 3-year-old male wins the Breeders' Cup Classic and this guy goes on to win another Breeders' Cup Mile. Will be back sprinting in his next start, the Vosburgh (G2).

2. White Abarrio. It says a lot about this division when I am ranking a horse this high with one stakes win in his last nine starts dating back 16 months. He won the Whitney impressively under his new trainer, Rick Dutrow Jr., who is back after a 10-year suspension when charged with numerous medication and administrative violations. White Abarrio has run career tops speed-figure-wise in his two starts since being transferred to Dutrow. White Abarrio will train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic. Can he win an Eclipse with only two stakes wins? He won't get my vote with that resume. Given all of that, he will be an underlay and long shot at Santa Anita, in my opinion.

3. Rattle N Roll. This guy was very good as a 2-year-old, struggled at the top level last year at age 3 but has made it back to the top level with three graded-stakes wins this season. Last out his runner-up to West Will Power in the Stephen Foster (G1) proved he is for real as it was by far the best field he has faced this season. Could run in the Pacific Classic (G1) next and, given the state of this division, all it will take is a couple of big late-season wins for him to land on top here.

4. Smile Happy. Had all sorts of problems last out in the Stephen Foster before the race was even run. He clearly didn't want to run and had to be backed some 200 yards into the gate. Anyone with the horse's well-being in mind who witnessed this fiasco prior to the race had to come away stunned that he wasn't a late scratch. Thankfully, he completed his trip around the Ellis Park oval without any mishaps and finished fifth, beaten a little over five lengths. I will give him a mulligan for this one. Previously he was super impressive on Kentucky Oaks day when winning the Alysheba (G2). He is a player in this division in races up to nine furlongs. I just can't see him being a serious threat if he is forced to run 10 furlongs.

5. Zandon. He hasn't won this year in three starts, but he shows up every time and runs his race. He has finished runner-up three times in graded stakes, the last two being the Met Mile (G1) and the Whitney.

Next 5: Defunded, Art Collector, Stiletto Boy, Last Samurai, Proxy

Older dirt females

1. Clairiere. Was beaten with no excuses last out by Nest, but she maintains this top spot because she has run in and won several big events this season. What happens in the prior six months matters to me in this sport, and Clairiere has shown up for all of the previous big events this division has had to offer this year, winning two Grade 1 events while Nest has been on the bench. Having written all of that, she will need to defeat her rival next up in the Personal Ensign (G1) or she will fall from here.

2. Nest. Ran great in her return to the races last out in the Shuvee (G2), where she got the jump on her rival Clairiere and recorded a facile two-length win. But, unlike others in this business who thrive on hyperbole, I won't put her in the top spot just yet. She sat on the bench for the first six-plus months of the season while her rival Clairiere has done all the dirty work. So one Grade 2 win doesn't move her to the top. They will meet again next week in the Personal Ensign (G1), and maybe then she can take over the divisional lead.

3. Adare Manor. The best of the west added another big win last weekend, the Clement Hirsch (G1). Now 4-for-5 on the season, she will probably have one more start before the Breeders' Cup Distaff at her home base of Santa Anita. No matter what happens with the top two, if this gal wins the Breeders' Cup Distaff, the Eclipse will be hers.

4. Search Results. Turned in a somewhat surprising lackluster effort last week when finishing third as the prohibitive favorite in the Molly Pitcher (G3) at Monmouth Park. Before that she was a tough-luck runner-up to Clairiere in the Ogden Phipps (G1).

5. Played Hard. Ran well to be third in the Phipps to Clairiere. Won the La Troienne (G1) in her only other start this season. Off the board only two times in 16 career starts. Skipped the Shuvee but worked Wednesday, and she could start in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga or Locust Grove (G3) in September at Churchill Downs.

Next 5: Secret Oath, A Mo Reay, Fun to Dream, Pauline's Pearl, Shotgun Hottie

3-year-old males

1. Forte. Got the job done in the Jim Dandy (G2) as he got past Saudi Crown at the wire to win by a nose. The race can be summarized very easily. Saudi Crown had everything go his way on the lead over an off track, but Forte ran him down anyway with nothing going his way. Was here at No. 1 prior to the Kentucky Derby, and nothing that took place in the Triple Crown events was enough to displace him. Much like Epicenter a year ago, he now will head to the Travers (G1) to cement his lead at the top of the division.

2. Mage. Ran great when runner-up in the Haskell (G1) after being off since the Preakness nine weeks prior. His resume is starting to get stacked now with four straight Grade 1 placings. Loses nothing in defeat, in my opinion, and should move forward off of that effort. Will run in the Travers next, where he likely will face old rival Forte. It will be a must-win situation for Mage, considering he already is 0-2 against Forte.

3. Geaux Rocket Ride. It might be ambitious to rank him this high, but here we are. Sure, his Haskell win was impressive, but he faced a horse in Mage who I don't believe was 100 percent. Will bypass the Travers for his next start and instead point to the Pacific Classic against older, which is a great move and a much tougher spot. A win in the Pacific Classic is much bigger than a win in the Travers, which is restricted to his age group.

4. Angel of Empire. Ran very well in the Jim Dandy to finish a close third, affirming his spot here. The Arkansas Derby (G1) winner also was a close third in the Kentucky Derby and looks to be one of the best in this division.

5. Arcangelo. Very impressed with his Belmont win as he had a golden trip up the rail to post a facile win over a strong field. But this was the Belmont, a 12-furlong race that is known to produce out-of-the-box results. Likely will point to the Travers next but wouldn't be favored in a race over any of the above. The Belmont was his second stakes win in five starts. His connections state they either will train up to the Travers or skip it entirely. OK. Skipping multiple big events while others in his division are present and accounted for in said events doesn't bode well for his Eclipse chances. I feel like he will be a big underlay in the Travers.

Next 5: National Treasure, Arabian Lion, Saudi Crown, Practical Move, Disarm

3-year-old females

1. Pretty Mischievous. I know what the PPs say, but this gal finished runner-up in the Test (G1) last time out. She has the lead in this division, but the door is still open. Before the Test she won the Acorn (G1) and the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She has won the two biggest events that her division has to offer so far this season. Will run next in the Cotillion (G1) at Parx in September

2. Wet Paint. Got the job done in the CCA Oaks (G1), defeating four others. With a Grade 1 win finally under her belt, she now can set her sights on leadership of this division in the coming weeks and months. Next stop will be the Alabama (G1) this weekend, where a win with an absent Pretty Mischievous will move her closer to the top.

3. Faiza. Disappointed as the favorite last out in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2), where she finished third. The loss snapped a five-race win streak to start her career, and four of those were graded events.

4. Window Shopping. Won the Summertime Oaks (G2) last out defeating The Alys Look, and before that she was third in Faiza's Santa Anita Oaks (G1).

5. Gambling Girl. Well beaten when third as the favorite in the CCA Oaks, losing by more than eight lengths. Prior to that effort she nearly pulled off the Kentucky Oaks upset, losing by a neck. Winless in four starts this season but has placed in two graded stakes. She too runs in the Alabama.

Next 5: Hoosier Philly, Dorth Vader, Sacred Wish, Defining Purpose, Taxed

Turf males

1. Up to the Mark. Was superb last out winning the Manhattan (G1) at Belmont Park, giving him two Grade 1 wins on this season, a rarity for this division the last few years. Do we finally have a grass horse based in the U.S. who can make noise this fall in the Breeders' Cup when the big guns come in from overseas? The jury is out, and he has posted no works since. If we are being honest, the fields he has beaten were suspect, and a few months ago he faced two horses ranked in this top five and was soundly defeated when third in the Makers Mark Mile (G1). So for now this guy will reside here, but there is a long way to go.

2. Exaulted. Since being moved to the grass from the dirt, this guy is 4-for-4. His win in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) was his second graded-stakes victory of the season, and he might very well be the best in this division right now. Bigger things could be in store for this son of Twirling Candy. Won't return until early September in the Del Mar Mile (G2), skipping several big events this summer. Not a fan of this schedule.

3. Casa Creed. Close stoutly last weekend in the Fourstardave (G1) to defeat Annapolis. A really impressive effort. A 7-year-old, he is in the best form of his career winning his last two starts. Could be a contender later this year in the Breeders' Cup Mile if he maintains this form.

4. Chez Pierre. No way around it, he disappointed in the Poker (G3), finishing third last out at Belmont Park. The Poker was only his second loss on the lawn. The Maker's Mark Mile winner will make his next appearance at Saratoga.

5. Set Piece. Won the Arlington Million last weekend, and since it's a Grade 1 in name, he moves up to this spot. He is 2-for-4 on the season, his other win was the Arlington Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs.

Next 5: Annapolis, Ottoman Fleet, Hong Kong Harry, Spooky Channel, Emmanuel

Turf females

1. In Italian. Was stunned last time out, tasting defeat for the first time in over a year to another in this division. Her narrow runner-up finish in the Diana (G1) won't knock her off the top spot here, and that likely will be the last time she runs nine furlongs. Look for her to run shorter for the remainder of the season as she charts a course for a return engagement in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

2. Whitebeam. Upset In Italian in the Diana for her first Grade 1 win and second graded-stakes win overall. Before the Diana she won the Gallorette (G3) on Preakness day at Pimlico. Will run next in the Ballston Spa (G2) on Aug. 24 at Saratoga. Was flattered by Fev Rover's Beverly D. win as that one finished third in the Diana.

3. War Like Goddess. Suffered another loss, the first time she has lost back-to-back races in her 16-race career. It wasn't a bad effort, finishing runner-up in the Glens Falls (G2) and losing by a neck. But if we are being fair, the War Like Goddess of old would beat that bunch handily. I believe she has lost a step or two now, but the connections likely will give her another shot to turn it around.

4. Fev Rover. Impressed in the Beverly D. (G1) for her second win this season. Previous to her win last weekend, she was third to Whitebeam and In Italian in the Diana. Won the Nassau Stakes (G2) two starts back.

5. Caravel. Defeated last out when facing males in the Troy Stakes (G3) at Saratoga, which was run on a soft turf because of the rain. Both of her prior graded-stakes wins this season have come over males, so this last loss was a disappointment.

Next 5: Marketsegmentation, McKulick, Didia, With the Moonlight, Spendarella

Male sprinters

1. Elite Power. Three starts this year and three wins. Last out in the Vanderbilt (G1) he had to overcome a lot and still reeled in Gunite for the win. The best in this division by a lot, he has stacked his resume through the first seven months of the season with three big graded-stakes wins. Will run next in the Forego (G1) later this month at Saratoga, where a win should lock up the Eclipse. At least it would in the old days. But as we have learned previously, it isn't enough for Eclipse voters who demand wins in the last month or two of the season. Is ranked above Cody's Wish because this guy is the Eclipse winner and hasn't lost since.

2. Cody's Wish. Do we keep him ranked down here with the sprinters? Sure we do. He has one Grade 1 sprint race win this year, the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), and after his loss in the Whitney will cut back to shorter distances. The Vosburgh (G2) is likely up next.

3. Gunite. Ran very well in the Vanderbilt and lost a heartbreaker at the wire. But given the race dynamics, if he can't beat Elite Power with that trip, I'm not sure he ever will.

4. Spirit of Makena. Toss out his last performance in the Bing Crosby (G1) where he lost all chance with a horrendous trip. Still feel he is the best of the West Coast sprinters, and he won his previous three starts this season.

5. The Chosen Vron. Won the Bing Crosby last out for his eighth straight win, and the previous seven wins all were listed stakes. This California-bred gelding loves sprinting and belongs here for now.

Next 5: Sibelius, Repo Rocks, Doppelganger, Skelly, Strobe

Female sprinters

1. Maple Leaf Mel. Do I believe that she would have gone on to win the Eclipse in this division had she avoided disaster in her Test stakes win? Perhaps. The only horse below who would have been able to possibly give her a run would have been Echo Zulu, in my opinion. So, though her place here at the top is somewhat symbolic as my own personal tribute to her, I truly believe she was a special sprinter. She goes out a champion not only in my heart, but for most who saw her run. She never tasted defeat in her brief six-race career and will always be thought of as the winner of the 2023 Test Stakes. I will remove her from this list soon, but she gets to reside here at the top for now.

2. Goodnight Olive. Rebounded from her loss in the Derby City Distaff (G1) with a good win last out in the Bed o' Roses (G2), where she narrowly defeated Wicked Halo. The Eclipse winner from last season started her season with a win in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland. Connections now will point her to the Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga on Aug. 26. That will be her last start prior to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

3. Echo Zulu. Dominant in two starts this season, she throttled a very good Honorable Miss (G2) field last time out, running off by over seven lengths and earning a top Beyer of 112. That figure is the highest this division has seen in years and ties for the highest in any division this season. The connections are thinking outside of the box and will chart a course for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Yes, the sprint against the males. I think it's just a matter of time before she takes over the top spot here.

4. Wicked Halo. Runner-up again in another huge effort last out in the Bed o' Roses, this time to Goodnight Olive. She is most certainly a serious contender for the Eclipse in this division and appears to be just getting better. Before the Bed o' Roses she was runner-up in the Derby City Distaff to Matareya.

5. Society. Rebounded from a rough start to her season with a 10-length win last out over Matareya in the Chicago Stakes (G3). Before that she was ninth in the La Troienne (G1) and third in the Madison (G1). Perhaps she is a player in this division? Not sure. I will side with the Chicago Stakes being an aberration.

Next 5: Matareya, Frank's Rockette, Fun to Dream, Caramel Swirl, Maryquitecontrary

Wet Paint and Defining Purpose can climb back into the Eclipse race

It seems long ago, but Wet Paint led the 3-year-old filly division prior to the Kentucky Oaks. She swept the Oaklawn Park series of 3-year-old filly events, the Martha Washington Stakes, Honeybee (G3), and Fantasy (G2). Favored in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs, she disappointed by finishing fourth, beaten three lengths.

She again disappointed a month later in the listed Monomoy Girl Stakes at Ellis Park, finishing second to Hoosier Philly. In all fairness to Wet Paint, she was up against it at Ellis Park given the pace. Wet Paint was stuck behind a ridiculously slow pace set by Hoosier Philly and did well to get the runner-up spot.

But still, it was another loss.

Last month Wet Paint was entered in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), it was a must win if she were to get back into this Eclipse race. She faced only four others, but she got the job done by closing well late to defeat Sacred Wish by a neck.

Wet Paint was back in the Eclipse picture, but still had a way to go to catch her rival, Pretty Mischievous.

But then the connections of Pretty Mischievous decided to eschew the nation’s premier summertime event for 3-year-old fillies, the Alabama (G1) at Saratoga. Had Pretty Mischievous run in and won this weekend’s Alabama for her third Grade 1 win, the Eclipse race would essentially be over. But instead, she tackled sprinters in the Test (G1) and was defeated. In fact, if not for the breakdown, Pretty Mischievous would have finished third (Clearly Hinged would have finished second).

Instead, she was elevated to first because of the Maple Leaf Mel breakdown at the finish.

The Alabama this weekend will be no easy task for Wet Paint. Defining Purpose won the Ashland (G1) in the spring and returned after her off-the-board Kentucky Oaks run to win the Indiana Oaks (G3) last time out. With a win this weekend she too can climb into the Eclipse picture.

So Wet Paint has an opening now. A win this weekend gets her nearly even with Pretty Mischievous. She still has the head-to-head loss in the Kentucky Oaks to avenge, but other than that she will be on even terms.

Pretty Mischievous will head next to the Cotillion (G1) in September at Parx. If all goes according to plan this weekend for Wet Paint, I expect to see her there too in what could be a battle for divisional supremacy.