Division rankings: Older males get chance for a jump start

The older dirt male division has spent most of 2025 idling in neutral, but that finally might change. A loaded renewal of the Grade 1 Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs on Saturday is set to kick this group into high gear. 

How loaded? Half of the top 10 in my division rankings are entered. That’s more representation in one race from this division than we’ve seen in any non–Breeders’ Cup event in nearly eight years of doing these rankings. 

Will the Stephen Foster finally give this division the jumpstart it needs? Maybe, maybe not. My thoughts are below, but first, here’s how the older dirt male rankings stack up heading into the weekend.

Older dirt males

1. Raging Torrent. In a season starting to feel a lot like 2019, when no older male has grabbed the division by the throat around two turns, this guy has earned his spot on top at the halfway mark. He’s 2-for-2 this year, with a Dubai score in the Godolphin Mile (G2) and a Met Mile (G1) win where he took down the division’s previous top two. Right now, he deserves to be on top.

2. Fierceness. No excuses when runner-up in the Met Mile. We are halfway through the season and this guy has just one Grade 2 win. 

3. White Abarrio. He too had no excuses in the Met Mile, where he finished a distant fourth. He did win his previous two starts this season, a dominant Pegasus World Cup (G1) score and a confident win in the Ghostzapper (G3) at Gulfstream. 

4. Locked. Turned in the worst performance of his career in the Alysheba (G2), finishing a distant fourth and beaten by more than six lengths. That effort was in sharp contrast to his previous outing, a dominant win in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). Likely will run next in the Suburban (G2) at Saratoga over 10 furlongs.

5. Hit Show. His win in the Dubai World Cup (G1) might have been a surprise to some, but not here. If he can bring that form back to the U.S., he will be a major player in this division. Before his win in Dubai he was a distant third to Locked in the Santa Anita Handicap. Will run Saturday in the Stephen Foster, where a win would move him closer to the top.

Next five: Mindframe, First Mission, Sierra Leone, Most Wanted, Mystik Dan.

It’s easy to get starry-eyed looking at this field. A Kentucky Derby winner, a Breeders’ Cup Classic champ and Dubai World Cup winner all showing up in one race? That hasn’t happened since the 1998 Breeders’ Cup Classic. On paper, four Grade 1 winners in one gate is impressive. 

But peel back the layers, and the shine dims a bit. Outside of Sierra Leone, only one horse, Mystik Dan, has won a Grade 1 around two turns in the U.S., and that was by a nose in last year’s Derby. Hit Show did earn his stripes in the Dubai World Cup overseas, so maybe I’m being a touch cynical. Still, for context, the 2022 Stephen Foster featured just as many top-level route winners. 

Plenty of backstories, but who’s ready to deliver? 

Despite the mixed resumes, the Stephen Foster has the ingredients to finally jumpstart this stagnant division. The storylines are there, now it’s on the horses to make something of them. 

Let’s start with Mystik Dan, last year’s Derby winner and perhaps the most intriguing name entered. A win here would vault him near the top of this division and, more tantalizingly, set up something we haven’t seen in over 30 years: two Kentucky Derby winners meeting in the same race. The last time that happened? Unbridled vs. Strike the Gold in the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Classic. If Mystik Dan delivers Saturday, we may be in for a treat. 

Then there’s Mindframe, the hype horse. Ever since his flashy debut 15 months ago, big things have been expected. But heading into the Foster, his only top-level win is a sprint. Yes, his runner-up finishes in the Belmont and Haskell (G1) suggest he’s more than a one-turn horse, but a loss here would be a letdown for his fan club and connections alike. 

Sierra Leone remains an enigma. Ten starts, never off the board, and a nose away from winning last year’s Derby. Yet here we are, with many still doubting him. After a lifeless seasonal debut in the New Orleans Classic (G2), it’s time to deliver. Maybe we’ll see him closer to the pace this time, but that only adds to the uncertainty. 

Hit Show, a longtime favorite of mine, finally delivered in the Dubai World Cup, beating the world’s top-ranked horse, Forever Young. But just two starts ago, he was a distant third to Locked. Which version shows up? Flip a coin. 

Among the others, First Mission will draw buzz off that generous 109 Beyer from Daily Racing Form in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). But he’s 0-for-3 in Grade 1 attempts and was off the board in this race last year when in similar form. As for Skippylongstocking, he’s a tough, honest stakes horse, but he's 0-for-9 in Grade 1 company. Enough said. 

The Stephen Foster had better light a fire under this division because a few 3-year-old males are lurking, and they won’t be forgiving come Breeders’ Cup time.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. I can’t say her off-the-board finish in the La Troienne (G1) was all that surprising as the warning signs were there in her first two starts this year. For now, she clings to the top spot in what’s shaping up to be one of the weakest editions of this division in the modern era. Next stop, the Fleur de Lis (G2) this weekend at Churchill. Another up-the-track performance could lead to the next phase of her career.

2. Cavalieri. Undefeated and getting better with each start, but she’s skipping major races like they’re optional Zoom calls. No Apple Blossom (G1), no La Troienne, and now no Santa Margarita (G2). Championships aren’t won in the barn. If she keeps ghosting big races, she will drop in the rankings. She’s not expected back until Del Mar.

3. Richi. She steamrolled the Santa Maria (G2) at Santa Anita, opening up by more than four lengths and giving a nice boost to Cavalieri, who beat her the race before. This Chilean import has done nothing but impress since arriving stateside. She has five solid efforts since June, plus a Group 1 win at 10 furlongs back home. She’s got stamina, class and momentum. A serious player in this division.

4. Dorth Vader. Scored a surprise in in the Ogden Phipps (G1) last time out for her first top-level win. Before that she was off the board in the La Troienne.

5. Raging Sea. No shock she came up empty as the beaten favorite in the Ogden Phipps, settling for a distant third. Yes, she won the La Troienne in her seasonal debut, but from a speed-figure standpoint, that was one of the slowest Grade 1 wins we’ve ever seen from an older dirt female. This division is officially in disarray.

Next five: Power Squeeze, Royal Spa, Gin Gin, Seismic Beauty, Dazzling Move.

3-year-old males

1. Sovereignty. Credit where it’s due, this guy showed up on Belmont day and left no doubt who was best, handling yet another off track. The track condition for the Belmont was changed to good after the race but to many observers was still muddy. For now, he holds the edge over Journalism at the season’s halfway mark, and these two clearly have separated themselves from the pack in this division. Here’s hoping we get the rematch everyone wants in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

2. Journalism. No real excuses in the Belmont. He ran well but was simply second best on the day. Now it’s back to California to regroup. His connections might take a different path to the Breeders' Cup, skipping Saratoga altogether and staying home to prep at Del Mar and Santa Anita with an eye firmly on the Breeders' Cup Classic, which is run at their home base. 

3. Baeza. Again was third best in a Triple Crown race, this time a distant third in the Belmont. He too will head back to California to regroup. Still in search of his first stakes win.

4. Burnham Square. Ran a solid race in the Matt Winn (G3), just missing by a half-length to East Avenue at 8 1/2 furlongs. Of course, he already got the better of that rival going nine furlongs in the Blue Grass (G1). Next up is either the Jim Dandy (G2) or the Haskell, where the distance once again might tilt things back in his favor.

5. Sandman. Ran a good third in the Preakness, rebounding from his seventh in Louisville. Before the Derby, he notched his first stakes win in the Arkansas Derby (G1), capitalizing on a pace scenario that was favorable. Skipped the Belmont and is now pointing for the Jim Dandy at Saratoga.

Next 5: East Avenue, Tappan Street, Gosger, Rodriguez, Coal Battle.

3-year-old fillies

1. Good Cheer. She doesn't lose her spot here after one loss, as she had built up a sizable lead. Like Raging Sea in the Phipps, the loss by this gal in the Acorn (G1) wasn't that surprising given her numbers in previous starts. Will try to right the ship in her next start.

2. La Cara. Dominant winner of the Acorn last time out, she now has two Grade 1 wins on the season after previously scoring in the Ashland at Keeneland. 

3. Nitrogen. This turf filly dominated the off-the-turf Wonder Again (G3) last time out, but even if that was on the grass I would still move her into this top five. She is 5-for-5 this season with four graded-stakes wins.

4. Quietside. Didn’t look like she cared for the slop in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), fading to sixth. Before that, she delivered a gutsy win in the Fantasy (G2), outdueling Simply Joking in a thrilling stretch battle.

5. Tenma. Ran better than I expected in the Kentucky Oaks when attending a quick pace but faltering late to finish fourth. Previously she scored in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2).

Next five: Drexel Hill, Five G, Simply Joking, Muhimma, Look Forward.

Turf males

1. Far Bridge. Ran well in the Manhattan (G1), where he clearly wanted more ground and came up short by two heads. Before that he scored another win in the Man o' War (G2) at Aqueduct. He kicked off 2025 with a hard-fought neck victory in the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream. Gets the slight nod here over Spirit of St Louis because of his head-to-head win.

2. Spirit of St Louis. He’s made a habit of trading wins and losses. After finishing off the board in the Manhattan, it was easy to forget he was the star of the Turf Classic (G1) on Derby day, a win that gave him two Grade 1 scores already this season. He's 2-for-4 on the season, and in his two losses he was off the board.

3. Deterministic. Scored a big win in the shortened Manhattan run at nine furlongs the day after the Belmont Stakes. The Manhattan was his first Grade 1 win. He is 2-for-3 on the season, previously scoring in the Fort Marcy (G2) at Aqueduct.

4. Integration. His Manhattan runner-up finish was his third in Grade 1 company this season.

5. Johannes. Back in training now, and I'm hoping to see him back at the races soon. He won the San Gabriel (G2) in December, capping off a stellar 2024 campaign with five graded-stakes victories from six starts. His only loss came as a runner-up to More Than Looks in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. 

Next five: King of Gosford, Dashman, Formidable Man, Utah Beach, Mercante.

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. Scored again, this time in the New York Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. She has won at six racetracks in her career and easily leads this division, having scored wins in both of her starts this year and four straight overall going back to last season. Will run next in the Diana (G1) at Saratoga.

2. Excellent Truth. Runner-up again, this time in the Just a Game (G1). Before that she was clearly best in the Jenny Wiley (G1) but had to settle for second behind Choisya in her seasonal debut. 

3. Be Your Best. An East Coast grass mare shipping west and romping in the Gamely (G1) is rare, but she made it look easy. Although she had prior experience over the Santa Anita turf, this marked her first Grade 1 win. Now 2-for-3 on the season, she also kicked off the year with a win in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2).

4. Dynamic Pricing. Has stepped up this season and won her first two starts, the last being the Just a Game (G1) for her first top-level score.

5. Beach Bomb. Ran very well in the New York to be second best to She Feels Pretty. She scored wins earlier this season in the Orchid (G3) and The Very One (G3) at Gulfstream.

Next five: Kehoe Beach, Ag Bullet, Saffron Moon, Choisya, Bellezza.

Male sprinters

1. Raging Torrent. Like Mitole in 2019, he leads this division as well as the older dirt male division. He scored his biggest career win in the Met Mile, defeating a small but solid field. His only loss in his last seven starts was last fall's Breeders' Cup Sprint. Will run next in the Pat O' Brien (G2) at Del Mar in August.

2. Straight No Chaser. The reigning Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion disappointed in Dubai, finishing eighth in the Golden Shaheen (G1). Before that he kicked off 2025 with a win in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) in Saudi Arabia. Targeting the Bing Crosby (G1) at Del Mar in late July for his next start.

3. Mindframe. I'm slotting him into this division because his only stakes win came sprinting or at a flat mile. Last time out, he beat a tough field in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), so he’s earned his spot here. Will run Saturday in the Stephen Foster, where he will be back around two turns.

4. Book'em Danno. Suffered a brutal defeat, losing by two heads and a neck to finish fourth in the Churchill Downs Stakes just behind Mindframe and Nysos in early May. But then he came back last time out in the True North (G2) to defeat Mullikin and Nakatomi at Saratoga. 

5. Nysos. Scored a big win in the Triple Bend (G3) last out and before that was a close third sprinting in the Churchill Downs Stakes. Until he stretches back out, he is ranked in this division.

Next five: Mullikin, Booth, Big City Lights, Nakatomi, Patch Adams.

Female sprinters

1. Kopion. Made a mockery of her 8-1 morning line in the Derby City Distaff (G1), storming home with authority and leaving no doubt who rules this division. That’s three graded-stakes wins in a row, each faster than anything we’ve seen from any division this season. Will run next in the Great Lady M. Stakes (G2) at Los Alamitos on July 5.

2. Ways and Means. Absolutely dominated the Bed o' Roses (G2), drawing off by more than seven lengths and staking her claim as likely the top female sprinter on the East Coast. Before that, she was a solid third in the Derby City Distaff behind the top-ranked Kopion.

3. Nic's Style. This Florida-bred is 7-for-8 in her career, her only loss a runner-up to Ways and Means last year in the Gallant Bloom (G2). She won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) last out for her fourth win in a row. A serious player in this division.

4. Two Sharp. Has made only one appearance this season but made it count, cruising to an easy win in the Winning Colors (G3) at Churchill Downs, taking down Hope Road and the rest with little trouble.

5. Richi. Turned in a facile win last out while stretching out in the Santa Maria, showing she’s just as effective going longer. Earlier in the season, she was runner-up to Cavalieri in the Beholder Mile (G1) and third behind Kopion in the Santa Monica (G2) after kicking off her campaign with a win sprinting in the Las Flores (G3). 

Next five: Hope Road, Scylla, Vahva, Positano Sunset, Pleasant.