Division rankings: Spotlight is on older males at Churchill

In an era where graded-stakes fields often leave us underwhelmed, this weekend brings a refreshing change with a genuinely stacked lineup from top to bottom in, of all places, the Grade 3 Blame Stakes at Churchill Downs. 

The Stephen Foster (G1) prep is a relatively new player on the schedule, born five years ago and upgraded to Grade 3 two years back. This year’s Blame is loaded with big names from the older dirt male division. On Saturday, it offers what might be the most loaded Grade 3 run in North America this season. All 10 entries are graded stakes winners. 

Before we break down what the Blame could mean for the older male division, here’s how I stack the top 10 as we near the halfway point of the season.

Older dirt males

1. White Abarrio. White Abarrio followed up his dominant Pegasus World Cup (G1) score with a confident win in the Ghostzapper (G3) at Gulfstream. The 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner looks to keep the momentum rolling with his next target, the prestigious Metropolitan Mile (G1) on Belmont Stakes day. A big effort there keeps him squarely in the horse-of-the-year conversation.

2. Fierceness. After a an extended layoff, Fierceness finally returned and didn’t disappoint. He cruised to a sharp win in the Alysheba (G1) at 8.5 furlongs on Kentucky Oaks day, showing more maturity. Up next is a possible start in the Met Mile (G1) on Belmont Stakes day, where he’ll look to further solidify his standing in this division.

3. Hit Show. His win in the Dubai World Cup (G1) might have been a surprise to some, but not here. If he can bring that form back to the U.S., he will be a major player in this division.

4. Locked. Turned in the worst performance of his career in the Alysheba, finishing a distant fourth and beaten by more than six lengths. That effort was in sharp contrast to his previous outing, a dominant win in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). Will run next in the Stephen Foster at Churchill in June.

5. First Mission. Ran the race of his life in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2), handling a tough crew of Grade 2 and Grade 3 veterans. He’s still chasing that elusive Grade 1 win, but with only 12 starts under his belt two starts into his 5-year-old season, there’s still time. The Stephen Foster in late June at Churchill Downs is next.

Next five: Sierra Leone, Most Wanted, Mindframe, Banishing, Hall of Fame

With three of my top 10 entered, the Blame Stakes carries weight on multiple fronts, not the least of which is the presence of ranked Banishing, a horse who’d be among the favorites for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile if it were run today. He’s been outstanding in nine straight starts, finishing first or second. 

But here’s where it gets interesting. Trainer David Jacobson is toying with the idea of scratching Banishing for the Met Mile or possibly running in both races, just a week apart. That kind of throwback toughness is nearly extinct in modern racing, but a few decades ago it was business as usual. 

The Blame is run at nine furlongs, but I’ve always felt Banishing is more of a miler. That said, he’s been holding his own at longer distances. Last time out, he was a hard-luck runner-up in the seven-furlong Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), weaving through traffic before launching a fierce late run to miss by a neck to Mindframe. You could argue Banishing ran the best race that day.

Before that, he was second to the no. 5-ranked First Mission in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) at the same nine-furlong distance as the Blame, finishing well clear of Skippylongstocking, who just scored in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G2). In short, Banishing has been mixing it up with serious players in this division and is more than holding his own. 

Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Mystik Dan, returns to the scene of his greatest triumph. After a trio of flat efforts following his Preakness runner-up finish, he finally showed signs of life last out at Oaklawn, nearly defeating the classy Saudi Crown in a tight finish. It was the kind of effort that hinted maybe his best days aren’t behind him after all. A top effort from Mystik Dan could land him not only back in the winner’s circle, but back into relevance among the older male ranks. 

The likely favorite and one of the least experienced of the horses entered is Most Wanted. Currently ranked no. 7, he was second best to Fierceness last out in the Alysheba. And with only two starts under his belt this season, there’s reason to believe his best is still to come. The added ground on Saturday only strengthens his chances. A win here likely vaults him into the top five. 

Hall of Fame, ranked No. 10, was third in that same Alysheba and earlier this year took down the Mineshaft (G3) at Fair Grounds. He’s another who figures to relish the extra distance. 

Then there’s Post Time, making his Churchill Downs debut in career start no. 17. Remarkably consistent, he’s never finished off the board, with two graded stakes wins to his name. If he brings his A game, he’s absolutely in the mix. 

Katonah, Alexander Helios and Tennessee Lamb all have graded-stakes wins in 2025, but a win from any of them on Saturday would be a surprise. 

If you're shopping for a live long shot, keep an eye on Antiquarian. The Todd Pletcher trainee resurfaced with a win last month after a 10-month layoff, his first start since a fifth in last year’s Belmont Stakes. Before that, he took down the Peter Pan (G3), and he could move forward off that comeback effort. 

Had you told me in January that the Blame Stakes, run the week before the Belmont, would be a must-see event, I’d have chuckled. But here we are, with Derby winner Mystik Dan, rising stars and seasoned contenders all in the gate, so this race suddenly carries real weight. 

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. I can’t say I was shocked to see her finish off the board in the La Troienne (G1). The warning signs were there in her first two starts this year. She just hasn’t looked like the same filly from last season. For now, she holds the top spot and targets the Fleur de Lis (G2) at Churchill in June.

2. Cavalieri. Undefeated and getting better with each start, but she’s skipping major races like they’re optional Zoom calls. No Apple Blossom (G1), no La Troienne, and now no Santa Margarita (G2). Championships aren’t won in the barn. If she keeps ghosting big races, she will drop in the rankings. She’s not expected back until Del Mar.

3. Richi. She steamrolled the Santa Maria (G2) at Santa Anita, opening up by more than four lengths and giving a nice boost to Cavalieri, who beat her the race before. This Chilean import has done nothing but impress since arriving stateside. She has five solid efforts since June, plus a Group 1 win at 10 furlongs back home. She’s got stamina, class and momentum. A serious player in this division.

4. Raging Sea. The good news? She won the La Troienne in her seasonal debut. The bad news? From a speed figure standpoint, it was one of the slowest Grade 1 wins by an older dirt female ever. She will get another shot at a big score in the Ogden Phipps (G1) on Belmont day.

5. Power Squeeze. She ran surprisingly well last time out in the Ghostzapper (G3), finishing second to White Abarrio and hanging in tough with the big boy. No one in this division has tackled tougher company in 2025, having squared off against males twice. Will run next in the Ogden Phipps (G1) on Belmont day.

Next five: Gin Gin, Randomized, Seismic Beauty, Free Like a Girl, Candied

3-year-old males

1. Journalism. Many won't like that I moved him right back to the top, but this is how I see it. I feel his slop loss to Sovereignty at Churchill downs was an aberration. His Preakness score was remarkable, and part of me hopes he skips the Belmont. We will see how things play out, but if the season ended today, ask yourself this question. Which horse would you vote for the Eclipse? My answer is Journalism.

2. Sovereignty. Super impressive in winning the Kentucky Derby, waiting five weeks for the Belmont Stakes. Will have the advantage over Journalism if they both make the Belmont gate.

3. Baeza. Drew into the Derby field just days before the race and made the most of it, finishing a strong third and missing second by only a neck. He is pointed to the Belmont, where he will be a major player for the win.

4. Burnham Square. Had a horrible trip in the Kentucky Derby but still managed to finish a better-than-it-looked sixth. Before that he won the Blue Grass (G1). Will run next in the Matt Wynn (G3) at Churchill in June.

5. Sandman. Ran a good third in the Preakness, rebounding from his seventh in Louisville. Before the Derby, he notched his first stakes win in the Arkansas Derby (G1), capitalizing on a pace scenario that was favorable. Will skip the Belmont and point for the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga.

Next 5: Tappan Street, Rodriguez, Gosger, Final Gambit, Tiztastic

3-year-old fillies

1. Good Cheer. Dominant winner of the Kentucky Oaks (G1), she is now an eye-catching 7-for-7 in her career. She will head to the Acorn (G1) on Belmont Stakes weekend to try to make it eight wins in a row.

2. Quietside. Didn’t look like she cared for the slop in the Kentucky Oaks, fading to sixth. Before that, she delivered a gutsy win in the Fantasy (G2), outdueling Simply Joking in a thrilling stretch battle.

3. Tenma. Ran better than I expected in the Kentucky Oaks when attending a quick pace but faltering late to finish fourth. Previously she scored in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2).

4. La Cara. She may not have handled the wet track in the Kentucky Oaks, finishing a distant ninth, but I’m not ready to drop her just yet. Her win in the Ashland (G1) and runner-up effort in the Davona Dale (G2) still carry weight, so she holds onto a top-five spot for now. Will also run in the Acorn.

5. Drexel Hill. The Kentucky Oaks runner-up was coming off a listed-stakes win in the Busher at Aqueduct. 

Next five: Five G, Nitrogen, Simply Joking, Muhimma, Look Forward

Turf males

1. Spirit of St Louis. Scored a popular win in the Turf Classic (G1) on Kentucky Derby day, giving him two Grade 1 wins already this season. Will run next in the Manhattan (G1) on Belmont Stakes day. 

2. Carl Spackler. Returned this season with authority, romping in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland and reminding everyone why he’s a force on turf. With Grade 1 wins in three of his last four starts, he is back near the top of a division that looks deep for the first time in years. Now he's been sold and will run overseas as Royal Ascot is his next target. Will drop out of these rankings soon.

3. Far Bridge. He scored another win in the Man o' War (G2) at Aqueduct. Before that he kicked off 2025 with a hard-fought neck victory in the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream. He has won four of his last five starts in what is suddenly a very interesting male grass division. Will run next in the Manhattan (G1) on Belmont day. 

4. Johannes. Kept his hot streak going with a win in the San Gabriel (G2) in December, capping off a stellar 2024 campaign with five graded-stakes victories from six starts. His only loss came as a runner-up to More Than Looks in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Back in training now, and I'm hoping to see him back at the races soon.

5. Think Big. This turf sprinter has won the two biggest turf-sprint stakes in the U.S. this season, the Shakertown (G2) at Keeneland and the Turf Sprint (G2) at Churchill Downs.

Next five: King of Gosford, Integration, Dashman, Formidable Man, Utah Beach

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. Kicked off her 2025 campaign in style with an easy win in the Modesty (G3) at Churchill on Kentucky Oaks day. She ended her stellar 3-year-old season with back-to-back Grade 1 victories in the Queen Elizabeth II at Keeneland and the American Oaks at Santa Anita. She picks up right where she left off, reclaiming the top spot in the division. Will run next in the New York Stakes (G1) at Saratoga on Belmont day.

2. Choisya. Hard to say she was truly best in the Jenny Wiley (G1), considering the interference with runner-up Excellent Truth. After an objection and steward’s review, she stayed up, and that's a call I wouldn’t have made. Still, she’s 3-for-3 this season. Will return for the Just a Game (G1) on Belmont day.

3. Excellent Truth. She was clearly best in the Jenny Wiley but had to settle for second behind Choisya in her seasonal debut. She will also point to the Just a Game (G1) for her next start.

4. Kehoe Beach. Ran a career-best race in the Jenny Wiley, where she finished a good third in her seasonal debut. Big things are expected from this daughter of Omaha Beach in 2025. Also expected to run in the Just a Game.

5. Be Your Best. An East Coast grass mare shipping west and romping in the Gamely (G1) is rare, but she made it look easy. Although she had prior experience over the Santa Anita turf, this marked her first Grade 1 win. Now 2-for-3 on the season, she also kicked off the year with a win in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2).

Next five: Saffron Moon, Gimme a Nother, Beach Bomb, Lady Claypoole, Sacred Wish

Male sprinters

1. Straight No Chaser. The reigning Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion disappointed in Dubai, finishing eighth in the Golden Shaheen (G1). Before that he kicked off 2025 with a win in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) in Saudi Arabia. Targeting the Bing Crosby (G1) at Del Mar in late July for his next start.

2. Raging Torrent. Scored a big win in the Godolphin Mile (G2) at Meydan and collected a win in the Malibu (G1) in December. He faced Straight No Chaser in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall and finished well back. Expected to run in the Met Mile next.

3. Mindframe. I'm slotting him into this division because his only stakes win came sprinting. And last time out, he beat a tough field in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), so he’s earned his spot here.

4. Book'em Danno. Suffered a brutal defeat, losing by two heads and a neck to finish fourth in the Churchill Downs Stakes. But he showed he belongs with the division's elite, and that’s enough to keep his spot in the rankings intact. Will likely run next in the Truth North (G3) at Saratoga.

5. Mullikin. He too ran a bang-up race in the Churchill Downs Stakes, losing by a little more than a length when fifth. Probably will run next in the Truth North, bypassing the Met Mile.

Next five: Booth, Big City Lights, Nakatomi, Bentornato, Mufasa

Female sprinters

1. Kopion. Made a mockery of her 8-1 morning line in the Derby City Distaff (G1), storming home with authority and leaving no doubt who rules this division. That’s three graded-stakes wins in a row, each faster than anything we’ve seen from any division this season.

2. Nic's Style. This Florida-bred is 7-for-8 in her career, her only loss a runner-up to Ways and Means last year in the Gallant Bloom (G2). She won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) last out for her fourth win in a row. A serious player in this division.

3. Richi. Turned in a facile win last out while stretching out in the Santa Maria, showing she’s just as effective going longer. Earlier in the season, she was runner-up to Cavalieri in the Beholder Mile (G1) and third behind Kopion in the Santa Monica (G2) after kicking off her campaign with a win sprinting in the Las Flores (G3). 

4. Hope Road. Second best once again to the division leader in the Derby City Distaff for her second straight runner-up finish. But this time she outran several other top members of this division, cementing her place in this top five.

5. Ways and Means. Returned in the Derby City Distaff to finish third to the top-ranked horse in this division. Could run next in the Bed o' Roses (G2) in June.

Next five: Two Sharp, Emery, Positano Sunset, Scylla, Pleasant.