Division rankings: Magnitude is a different test for Sovereignty

This week I arrived at a fork in the road. Should I shine the spotlight on the Grade 1 Personal Ensign with top-ranked Thorpedo Anna or stick with the 3-year-old males who have had the spotlight most of the season? I chose the Travers (G1). 

Thorpedo Anna can wait. If she wins, she’ll get her turn next week. 

Judging by the Travers headlines this week, you’d think it was already over. With Sovereignty entered and Baeza and Journalism skipping the 3,000-mile trip to Sovereignty’s home base for spots elsewhere, the narrative paints the Travers as a one-horse race, a coronation for the Kentucky Derby and Belmont champ. 

The truth is, this Travers is no walkover. Sovereignty faces what he hasn’t all season, a legitimate, controlling speed horse in Magnitude. 

I’ll get back to more Travers thoughts in a bit, but first, the 3-year-old male rankings. It’s a top-heavy bunch, with Sovereignty firmly on top and Magnitude at No. 4.

3-year-old males

1. Sovereignty. Handled his business in the Jim Dandy (G2) and now heads to a Travers that has its smallest field since 1994. Remember when skipping the Preakness was supposed to elevate the Travers or when some insisted the “real” Triple Crown was the Derby, Belmont and Travers? That aged well. I’ll stick with what I have written before, this Eclipse still runs through the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the top two ranked here.

2. Journalism. Showed up again in a big Grade 1 event and delivered, this time in the Haskell. His three top-level scores this season are the most of any in this division. Likely to go next in the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar.

3. Baeza. Ran his heart out in the Jim Dandy only to be second best, dropping a one-length decision to Sovereignty. Still in search of his first stakes win, but he is clearly in the top three of his division despite that fact. Will skip the Travers and likely wait for the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) next.

4. Magnitude. I’m bumping this guy all the way into the top five, even if his Iowa Derby comeback was basically a glorified allowance win. Before that, he romped in the Risen Star (G2) over a sloppy Fair Grounds track with an eye-popping figure. If you trust the numbers, he’s right there with the division’s top three. And as a confirmed front runner, he adds a new wrinkle to an already compelling group. If he wins the Travers this weekend he tosses his name into this divisional race.

5. Gosger. Would be a dual Grade 1 winner if not for the heroics of Journalism. His last two starts, the Preakness and Haskell, have been solid runner-up finishes. Won the Lexington (G3) this season. Will run next in the Pennsylvania Derby.

Next 5: Goal Oriented, Sandman, Burnham Square, Chunk of Gold, Coal Battle.

Credit to Sovereignty for restoring some shine to the Kentucky Derby. Ten of the last sixteen Derby winners never won again, but he’s validated his victory and stamped himself the best Derby winner since American Pharoah. 

Now he chases the Travers, aiming to be the first since Thunder Gulch in 1995 to sweep the Derby, Belmont and Travers. Of course, Thunder Gulch had to conquer the true test-of-the-champion Belmont at 12 furlongs, and Sovereignty’s Belmont came at the trimmed-down 10. 

Recent Iowa Derby winner Magnitude is the wild card in this Travers. As the controlling speed, he’s far from hopeless. On paper, he’s about as fast ss Sovereignty. 

In mid-February, Magnitude blew the doors off the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, wiring the field by nearly 10 lengths with a 108 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form. An ankle chip sidelined him for the Triple Crown, but he returned in July in the Iowa Derby, again dictating the pace before powering clear for another high speed figure. 

Magnitude figures to control the Travers in the early and middle stages, and he already has proven he can run fast enough to spar with Sovereignty. The 10 furlongs of the Travers are uncharted waters for Magnitude, but then again, that’s true for every 3-year-old who skipped the Derby. 

There is no way to sugarcoat this. The Travers runs through Sovereignty. It’s his third straight start at his Saratoga home base, and it’s hard to picture him losing. Still, Magnitude brings a wrinkle. If he’s allowed to cruise on the lead, reeling him in may not be so simple.

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He kept his unbeaten 2025 campaign rolling with a popular win in the Stephen Foster (G1), planting his flag atop the older dirt male division for now. But he gives off strong Liam’s Map vibes, very good up to nine furlongs but unlikely to stretch his game to classic territory. Like Liam, don’t be surprised if his Breeders’ Cup road leads to the Dirt Mile, especially if he comes up short in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) this month. His connections whiffed on a prime chance to widen his divisional lead when he was scratched from the Whitney (G1), leaving the stage to stablemate Fierceness, who promptly finished off the board.

2. Sierra Leone. He fired yet another bullet in a major, this time in the Whitney at Saratoga, toppling a strong field and launching himself right back into the Eclipse and horse-of-the-year conversation. He is the only horse in training with a real shot at going back to back in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and yet somehow, the critics still chirp. Next stop, the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where a win over Mindframe would leave no doubt about who sits atop this division.

3. Raging Torrent. He’s 2-for-2 this year with a Dubai win in the Godolphin Mile (G2) and a Met Mile (G1) score where he knocked off the division’s previous top two. He's ranked third for now, but with his recent retirement he will drop. Stays here now because he is top three, and top three here go on my ballot.

4. Nysos. With two wins from three starts this year, Nysos reminded everyone why the Baffert camp has been so high on him, cruising home last out in the San Diego (G2) at Del Mar. Next up, the 10-furlong Pacific Classic and a test to see if his brilliance can stretch the extra distance. If he passes that, he could crash the Breeders’ Cup Classic party come November.

5. Fierceness. No real excuses for his off-the-board finish in the Whitney, and you have to wonder if he’s the same horse since his surgery last December. He’s targeting a September return, likely in either the Woodward (G2) at Aqueduct or the Lukas Classic (G2) at Churchill. With Fierceness, nothing would shock me. His calling card has been inconsistency, so don’t be surprised if he bounces back and wins next time out.

Next five: Highland Falls, White Abarrio, Locked, Hit Show, Most Wanted.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Rebounded from her off-the-board finish in the La Troienne (G1) to score a facile win in the Fleur de Lis (G2) at Churchill Downs. Although her numbers are historically slow for a top-ranked member of this division, she continues to be the clear leader, mostly because no one else has pieced together a résumé strong enough to challenge her. She will run in the Personal Ensign at Saratoga this weekend.

2. Seismic Beauty. Scored a nice win last out in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1) going wire to wire. Clearly the fastest horse in the division on paper in 2025, she will be a tough one to beat if she can stay healthy this fall. 

3. Kopion. I thought she ran a sneaky-good race when closing from last to finish second behind Seismic Beauty in the Clement Hirsch. The added distance didn't bother her, and there’s no reason to think she can’t handle the nine furlongs of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Her connections now have a choice. Stretch out and take a swing at the Distaff or cut back to sprints, where she’s already proven to be among the best.

4. Leslie's Rose. Scored her first graded-stakes win this season in the Shuvee (G2) at Saratoga. Was third earlier this season in the Vagrancy (G3). Will run in the Personal Ensign.

5. Randomized. Ended a three-race losing streak with a nice win in the Molly Pitcher (G3) over a good field. Was third earlier this season in the La Troienne. She too is entered in the Personal Ensign.

Next five: Cavalieri, Richi, Dazzling Move, Dorth Vader, Raging Sea.

3-year-old fillies

1. Nitrogen. Showed up in the Alabama (G1) and proved much the best to rocket to the top of this division. This turf standout will now stick to the dirt as she will look for one more race before the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

2. Good Cheer. Rebounded from her disastrous Acorn to run a very good second to Nitrogen in the Alabama. Not out of the Eclipse race here.

3. Scottish Lassie. Don't look now, but this gal is very close to the top now after a dominating score in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). Before that she was third in the Acorn (G1). Should run next in the Cotillion (G1) in September. 

4. La Cara. Didn't really run her race when off the board in the Alabama. Previously she was the dominant winner of the Acorn. She has two Grade 1 wins on the season.

5. Quietside. Didn’t look like she cared for the slop in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), fading to sixth. Before that, she delivered a gutsy win in the Fantasy (G2), outdueling Simply Joking in a thrilling stretch battle. Will continue to drop if she doesn't run soon.

Next five: Tenma, Drexel Hill, Five G, Simply Joking, Margie's Intention.

Turf males

1. Deterministic. He has rattled off three straight graded-stakes wins, including back-to-back Grade 1s. His latest was a dominant performance in the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga following a big score in the shortened nine-furlong Manhattan (G1) the day after the Belmont. He’s 3-for-4 on the year and very much trending in the right direction.

2. Far Bridge. Ran his worst race of the season last out in the Sword Dancer (G1), finishing off the board. Still, I won't drop him too far given his resume this season, which features three graded-stakes victories.

3. Formidable Man. Winner of the Kilroe Mile (G1) this season, he scored again last out in the Eddie Read (G2) at Del Mar. His other two starts this year resulted in off-the-board finishes.

4. Fort Washington. Scored his first Grade 1 last out in the Arlington Million, a breakthrough moment after 27 starts and three Grade 3 wins. At 6, this veteran is finally having his breakout season, with two other graded-stakes wins already on the résumé.

5. Spirit of St Louis. He’s picked up two Grade 1 wins this year, including a score in the Turf Classic (G1) on Derby day, but you wouldn’t know it from his recent form. He finished a dull eighth in the Fourstardave (G1), more than four lengths behind Deterministic, and was nowhere to be found in the Manhattan before that. It’s easy to forget he looked like a turf star just a few months ago.

Next five: El Cordobes, Integration, King of Gosford, Redistricting, Zulu Kingdom.

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. She gutted out a game win in the E. P. Taylor (G1) to hold her spot on top here. It was her second Grade 1 of the season and, remarkably, her fifth overall in just 12 starts, the fastest to five since Rushing Fall matched the feat five years ago.

2. Excellent Truth. She finally broke through for her first Grade 1 win last time out in the Diana (G1) after finishing runner-up in her three prior attempts. The win, though impressive, isn't enough for me to push her above She Feels Pretty, who would prevail if the Eclipse vote were held today.

3. Dynamic Pricing. Was third in the Diana over four lengths behind the top two ranked in this division. Before that she scored a win in the Just a Game for her first top-level score. 

4. Be Your Best. Last out in the Beverly D (G2), she had to settle for third. Previous to that she shipped west and romped in the Gamely (G1). She kicked off the year with a win in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2).

5. Charlene's Dream. Scored her biggest career win last out in the Beverly D (G2). That was her second graded-stakes win this season.

Next five: Beach Bomb, Heredia, Kehoe Beach, Ag Bullet, Saffron Moon.

Male sprinters

1. Book'em Danno. Keeps getting better with every start. Reaches the top here off back-to-back wins, highlighted by a dominant Vanderbilt (G2) score over Mullikin and Nakatomi, which followed his True North (G2) victory over that same duo. Runs in the Forego (G1) this weekend, looking for his first Grade 1 win of the season.

2. Raging Torrent. He scored his biggest career win in the Met Mile, defeating a small but solid field. His only loss in his last seven starts was last fall's Breeders' Cup Sprint. Now retired, he stays ranked here for now but is likely to drop out soon.

3. Straight No Chaser. The reigning Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion disappointed in Dubai, finishing eighth in the Golden Shaheen (G1). Before that he kicked off 2025 with a win in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) in Saudi Arabia. He too likely will fall from this spot soon.

4. Mindframe. I'm keeping him here because he scored a Grade 1 win sprinting in the Churchill Downs. Although I doubt we will see him sprinting again this season, there is a chance he will be back at a mile come Breeders’ Cup time.

5. Nysos. Stretched last out in the San Diego (G2) to score another win. Probably won’t be sprinting again this season as he will stretch even more next out in the Pacific Classic. Previously he scored in the Triple Bend (G3) and before that was a close third sprinting in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1). Stays in this spot for now.

Next five: Mullikin, Booth, Lovesick Blues, Bishops Bay, Nakatomi.

Female sprinters

1. Kopion. Even after her loss to Sweet Azteca in the Great Lady M (G2), she holds onto the top spot for now. Before that, she blew past her 8-1 morning line in the Derby City Distaff (G1), powering home with authority. With Kopion, Sweet Azteca and Ways and Means all likely Del Mar-bound, this top-heavy division is setting the stage for one of the Breeders’ Cup’s most anticipated showdowns. Last out she ran a solid second in the Clement Hirsch at 8 1/2 furlongs, but a return to sprinting could still be in the cards.

2. Sweet Azteca. Scored a remarkable comeback win in the Great Lady M, where she defeated Kopion. This came nine months to the day after her last race, a stunning off-the-board finish at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth (G3) at Santa Anita. Before that loss she had won three graded stakes in a row. Obviously a major player in this division when she is right.

3. Ways and Means. Absolutely dominated the Bed o’ Roses (G2), drawing off by more than seven lengths and staking her claim as likely the top female sprinter on the east coast. Before that, she was a solid third in the Derby City Distaff (G1) behind the top-ranked Kopion.

4. Two Sharp. Has made only one appearance this season but made it count, cruising to an easy win in the Winning Colors (G3) at Churchill Downs, taking down Hope Road and the rest with little trouble.

5. Nic's Style. This Florida-bred is 7-for-8 in her career, her only loss a runner-up to Ways and Means last year in the Gallant Bloom (G2). She won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) last out for her fourth win in a row. A serious player in this division.

Next five: Richi, Hope Road, Scylla, Vahva, Positano Sunset.