Division rankings: Penn Derby showcases 2 Eclipse hopefuls

This weekend at Parx is the final call for 3-year-old males to duke it out on dirt in a two-turn Grade 1s against their own kind. After the Pennsylvania Derby, it’s graduation day. No more easy pickings. They'll be facing the older, tougher crowd. 

Out of the 11 horses set to run on Saturday, two stand out. They are Preakness winner Seize the Grey and Dragoon Guard. The rest of the Eclipse Award hopefuls are chilling, waiting for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. But for these two, the Pennsylvania Derby is basically a do-or-die semifinal. A win here punches their ticket to the Breeders’ Cup, keeping those Eclipse dreams alive. So no pressure or anything, but if they want a shot at the big time, it’s time to step up.

DeRosa: Pennsylvania Derby 2024 fair odds.

Dragoon Guard is the new kid on the block, and he’s definitely bringing some swagger. Undefeated in all four of his starts this season, he’s stepping up to his first Grade 1 as the wild card in the deck, and things are about to get real interesting.

I'll dive deeper into these two at the bottom of this story. First, let’s check out this week’s updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. National Treasure. He struggled in the muddy Whitney (G1) last time out, finishing off the board and extending his winless record on off tracks to 0-for-3. Despite this he remains on top here, because no other horse in th division is more deserving. He’s still the only one with two Grade 1 wins this season. He’s back in California to prepare for the California Crown (G1) at Santa Anita later this month, formerly known as the Awesome Again and before that the Goodwood.

2. Señor Buscador. Used the Pat O’Brien (G2) last out as a prep for the California Crown, finishing fourth after closing from far back, beaten by just over six lengths in the seven-furlong race. He began the season with a close second to National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in January followed by a win in the Saudi Cup (G1) in February and a third-place finish in the Dubai World Cup (G1) in March. The long-term goal is the Breeders' Cup Classic.

3. Next. Won the listed Birdstone by an impressive 22 lengths, but let’s pump the brakes here. He faced only three other horses, one of whom didn’t finish, and collectively, they had a 3-for-27 record in stakes races. His win streak is now at six, and he’s unlikely to move up in these rankings soon as he’ll be running in the Greenwood (G3) this weekend at Parx after skipping the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) three weeks back. If he performs well, his connections are considering a Breeders’ Cup run with both the Classic and the Turf on the table.

4. Highland Falls. Last time out he delivered one of the most impressive performances we've seen in this division all season, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). It wasn’t just the win but how he achieved it. From the start he took the race to Arthur’s Ride, engaging in a spirited early battle. Highland Falls pulled ahead around the far turn and never looked back, crossing the finish line with an open-lengths win. Although his final quarter was notably slow, it remains the biggest win of his nine-race career. This season he has won half of his six starts, including the Blame (G3) at Churchill Downs in June.

5. Pyrenees. Consistent performer is 3-for-5 this season with two runner-up finishes in Grade 1 events, the Stephen Foster and Jockey Club Gold Cup last time out.

Next 5: Arthur’s Ride, Saudi Crown, Skippylongstocking, Crupi, Mixto.

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Although she narrowly lost to Raging Sea by a head in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga last time out, she impressed me more in defeat than she had in any of her previous wins. Idiomatic, who engaged in a prolonged duel with Randomized, pulled ahead turning for home but was caught at the wire by Raging Sea. Despite this Idiomatic remains at the top and looks set for an anticipated showdown with Thorpedo Anna this fall. The Spinster (G1) at Keeneland in October is next.

2. Adare Manor. In winning the Clement L. Hirsch (G1), she showed something new. Heart and another gear. She looked to be in trouble on the far turn, lagging behind the leaders, but found another gear in the stretch to win decisively over a very good field. She is 3-for-4 this season with two Grade 1 wins, the most in this division. She has a case to be ranked no. 1 but stays here for now.

3. Raging Sea. Scored an upset win in the Personal Ensign (G1) using her late run to edge Idiomatic at the wire. She quietly has won three graded stakes this season and adds her name to the short list of horses in this division who can end the season on top.

4. Randomized. Engaged in an early battle with Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign but couldn’t keep up and faded to finish fifth, more than 15 lengths behind. But she did win the Ogden Phipps (G1) by upsetting Idiomatic earlier this season and will have another chance this fall.

5. Sweet Azteca. Scored another easy and dominant win in the Rancho Bernardo (G3) last out. Her connections are aiming for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, where she will be a formidable contender on her home track. She is 5-for-6 in her career.

Next 5: Scylla, Honor D Lady, Shotgun Hottie, Flying Connection, Desert Dawn.

3-year-old males

1. Fierceness. Entered the Travers (G1) with several questions but answered them decisively, showing heart in the stretch to hold off the filly Thorpedo Anna for a gutsy and popular win. He moves back to the top of the division and should remain there for the foreseeable future. He will train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where I anticipate a tougher field and less favorable pace conditions.

2. Dornoch. Really had no excuses in the Travers as he sat off the slow early fractions set by Batten Down. Still he did win the Belmont and Haskell (G1). He is by no means out of this Eclipse race and will be back to try to make amends for his Travers failure. He too will train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

3. Sierra Leone. Arguably the most consistent member of this division, Sierra Leone once again came up short in a big race but performed about as well as could be expected under the circumstances in the Travers. Unlike Fierceness and Thorpedo Anna, he lacks tactical speed and was at a disadvantage by the slow pace. He’s clearly a top-two or top-three member of this division. I still believe he will shine on a big day and would rate his chances very good in the Breeders’ Cup Classic if he were to get a favorable pace scenario.

4. Mystik Dan. He faltered in the Belmont but remains near the top because of his achievements in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. He also earns credit in my view for consistently showing up and competing, a quality few of the contenders below him can claim. Connections are toying with the idea of shipping him to California to target the Malibu (G1) in December as his comeback race.

5. Forever Young. With only one start in this country, this horse is ranked here even though he was likely the best in the Kentucky Derby. Now 5-for-6 in his career, he has traveled extensively with wins in two countries this year. We could see him in the U.S. again as the Breeders’ Cup remains a possibility. No other in this division has done enough yet to unseat him here in this spot just yet. He is expected to return in the Japan Dirt Classic on Oct. 2 at Oi in Tokyo.

Next 5: Seize the Grey, Mindframe, Muth, Dragoon Guard, Catching Freedom.

3-year-old fillies

1. Thorpedo Anna. She exceeded all expectations by raising her game by several lengths to finish a game runner-up in the Travers and make me eat crow. Again. I was rooting for her in the stretch, but it wasn’t meant to be. Nonetheless, my hat’s off to her. Her stretch run was reminiscent of Zenyatta's narrow defeat in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Her connections will target two more races this season, the Cotillion (G1) at Parx on Saturday and the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar on Nov. 2.

2. Power Squeeze. Impressive winner of the Alabama (G1) last out, she narrowly defeated Candied by a head. The Alabama was her third graded-stakes win on the season. Will take on Thorpedo Anna at Parx on Saturday.

3. Candied. Two straight strong runner-up finishes in Grade 1 events. The Alabama came a few weeks after her runner-up to Thorpedo Anna in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). Before the CCA Oaks she won the Lady’s Secret Stakes at Monmouth Park.

4. Tarifa. Up the track in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), but perhaps she disliked the off track. Still, with two graded-stakes wins this season, Tarifa stays in the top five here. She also is entered in the Cotillion.

5. Sugar Fish. Came out of nowhere and dominated the Summertime Oaks (G2) to win by more than nine lengths. She was coming off an optional-claimer win and before that broke her maiden in an optional claimer. Last time out she finished off the board and behind older Adare Manor in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1)

Next 5: Hope Road, Nothing Like You, Ways and Means, Leslie's Rose, Kinza.

Turf males

1. Johannes. Resides at the top here after sitting at no. 6 for a few weeks. Why? For starters he has run in and won three graded stakes already this season. His last, a powerhouse win in the Eddie Read (G2), came against a good field. He is 6-for-10 in his career and a major player in this division moving forward as he will not need to leave his home state of California with the Breeders’ Cup Mile being run at Del Mar. Will run next in the City of Hope Mile (G2) at Santa Anita on Sept. 28.

2. Cogburn. He made a strong return in the Turf Sprint (G2) at Kentucky Downs, with another impressive victory. He remains undefeated, now 3-for-3 this season. Although it’s tough for a turf sprinter to claim an Eclipse Award, Stormy Liberal managed it in 2018 when the division lacked a standout. Can Cogburn do the same this year? Absolutely.

3. Measured Time. Made his return to the races in the Sword Dancer (G1) but was upset and finished as the runner-up to Far Bridge. In his only other U.S. start this season he dominated the Manhattan on Belmont Stakes day, marking his first Grade 1 win.

4. Silver Knott. Never saw the lead in the Sword Dancer last out, finishing third as he, too, was upset by Far Bridge. Now 3-for-4 in 2024, all of his wins came in Grade 2 events.

5. Master of The Seas. He won the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) impressively in his last outing, bringing his total to three Grade 1 victories in his last four starts in North America. After his win in April, his connections opted to bench him. They planned to start him in the Fourstardave (G1), but he was scratched because of a foot bruise. This is why you run when you can, and it underscores the importance of seizing opportunities when they arise. Continues to drop with inactivity.

Next 5: Carl Spackler, Far Bridge, Nation's Pride, Goliad, Win for the Money.

Turf females

1. Whitebeam. She claims the top spot after Didia and Anisette lost at Del Mar. Last month she won the Diana (G1) against the strongest field of female turf horses this season. Before that she was runner-up in two graded stakes this year. Her next race is the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland in October.

2. War Like Goddess. Was the victim of pace again last out when she finished second in the Flower Bowl (G2), but the good news is she came running. At age 7, I keep expecting her to slow down, but she just keeps going strong. Before the Flower Bowl she scored an easy win in the Robert G. Dick Memorial (G3) at Delaware Park. Remarkably she will contend for an Eclipse in this division for the fourth consecutive season. Could we see her take on males in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) on Sept. 28, aiming for her third consecutive win in that race?

3. Anisette. She was disappointing in her last start, finishing third in the Mabee Stakes (G2) and missing her chance to claim the top spot in the division. Before that she cruised to an easy victory against an outclassed field in the Yellow Ribbon (G2) at Del Mar. She’s 2-for-3 this season with her other win coming in the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita on Memorial Day.

4. Didia. She’s coming off two disappointing performances, finishing off the board in both the Diana last month and the Mabee Stakes two weeks ago. But earlier she impressed with a dominant win over a tough field in the New York Stakes (G1) and kicked off her campaign with a victory in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January.

5. Chili Flag. Disappointed in the Diana, finishing ninth after winning three in a row going in. The Just a Game (G1) winner on Belmont Stakes weekend still deserves to reside in the top five. Also will wait for the First Lady at Keeneland in October.

Next 5: Moira, Beaute Cachee, Idea Generation, Full Count Felicia, McKulick.

Male sprinters

1. The Chosen Vron. Remains at the top despite his upset loss in the Pat O’Brien Stakes (G2), where he finished a close runner-up to Raging Torrent. It was his first defeat in six starts this season. By today’s standards his record is remarkable with 19 wins from 25 starts with only two finishes off the board. Eighteen of those wins have come in stakes races.

2. Mullikin. Like Elite Power a few years ago, this horse has emerged as a late-season star. He scored his first Grade 1 victory in the Forego at Saratoga after his first graded-stakes win in the Nerud (G2) at Aqueduct in July. Overall this 4-year-old colt by Violence is 5-for-9 in his career.

3. Nakatomi. Scored a nice win when defeating Skelly in the Vanderbilt (G1) last out at Saratoga for his first victory of 2024. Previously he had run third in both of his starts.

4. Skelly. Runner-up to Nakatomi in the Vanderbilt last out, he has lost two in a row. Has won three races this year but only one graded stakes, the Count Fleet (G3) at Oaklawn.

5. Gun Pilot. Finished as runner-up to Millikin in the Forego last time out and was third as the favorite in the True North (G2) on Belmont Stakes weekend. Earlier this season, he notched his first stakes win in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1).

Next 5: Raging Torrent, Domestic Product, Prince of Monaco, Closethegame Sugar, Baby Yoda.

Female sprinters

1. Vahva. Disappointed as the favorite in the Ballerina (G1), finishing third behind Society. Before that she delivered an impressive win in the Chicago (G3) at Churchill Downs, running down Society in the stretch. Earlier this season she defeated Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1) with a comfortable two-length victory after finishing runner-up to the same rival in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in April.

2. Sweet Azteca. She moves up to this spot, although she arguably deserves the no. 1 ranking. She delivered another impressive victory in  dominating the Rancho Bernardo (G3) at Del Mar and has consistently posted some of the fastest speed figures in this division. With three consecutive graded-stakes wins, she’s 5-for-6 in her career.

3. Society. Scored her first win of 2024 in a big one, defeating Vahva and Scylla in the Ballerina. In her only other start this season she was third to Vahva in the Chicago Stakes (G3).

4. Way and Means. Scored an impressive win in the Test (G1) last time out for her first stakes win. Still has to face older.

5. Spirit Wind. Defeated Accede and Clearly Unhinged last out in the Honorable Miss (G2) at Saratoga. Before that big win she won a sprint stakes at Lone Star.

Next 5: Scylla, Accede, Clearly Unhinged, Red Carpet Ready, Almostgone Rocket.

Family feud this weekend in Penn Derby

The last time Seize the Grey saw the racetrack in a race, he was a no-show, finishing a forgettable fourth in the Jim Dandy (G2), where Fierceness stole the show. Before that? He was sightseeing in the Belmont, landing seventh. Let’s be real. The Pennsylvania Derby is a must win for this son of Arrogate in terms of the Eclipse. If any horse needed a win, it’s this guy. Not long ago he was riding high, nearly ruling the division after his Preakness victory, which followed his impressive Pat Day Mile win on Derby Day. Now? He’s hanging on, hoping to reclaim that glory. 

In a bid to jumpstart Seize the Grey’s career, trainer D. Wayne Lukas benched his star and sat out the Travers, a tough but smart call. Now, after some much-needed R&R, Seize the Grey is coming into Saturday's race with fresh legs and zero excuses. If he doesn’t show up this time, well, let’s just say the blame won’t be on his vacation. 

A win in the Pennsylvania Derby would vault Seize the Grey right back into the Eclipse conversation, giving him a second Grade 1 win this season despite those two forgettable losses. It would also hand him the keys to his own fate heading into the Breeders’ Cup Classic. So if he pulls a win off this weekend, his connections can breathe a sigh of relief and start preparations for the Breeders’ Cup.

And what about the other Arrogate kid Dragoon Guard? Yep, Parx is hosting a family feud this weekend with two sons of Arrogate squaring off. Unlike his sibling Seize the Grey, Dragoon Guard has been flawless in 2024, winning all four starts like it’s a walk in the park, all by open lengths. Actually, if it weren’t for a narrow neck loss as a 2-year-old, he’d be sporting an unbeaten record. Talk about sibling rivalry. This one’s got some serious bragging rights on the line. 

Trainer Brad Cox has played the long game with Dragoon Guard, easing him into 2024 with a maiden win and then stepping up to take an optional claimer followed by back-to-back scores in the Indiana and West Virginia derbies, both Grade 3s. Now the real fun begins. Dragoon Guard’s biggest test is here, and he’s about to square off with a classic winner in Seize the Grey. 

It’s not like Dragoon Guard hasn’t tangled with the big boys before. He already took down Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold in the Indiana Derby, and guess what? Stronghold’s back for more on Saturday. 

Let’s be honest. This race is Dragoon Guard’s golden ticket. A win not only punches his Eclipse Award card but also hands him the steering wheel heading into the Breeders’ Cup Classic. If he pulls this off, he’ll go from who’s that to division leader faster than you can say where’s this guy been all year?

In a span of just two months, Dragoon Guard could go from under-the-radar to the horse everyone’s chasing.