Division rankings: Older horses take stage at Del Mar, Saratoga
This weekend, the spotlight shifts from 3-year-olds to the older male and female horses who are looking to position themselves for year-end honors.
On the West Coast at Del Mar, the site of this year’s Breeders’ Cup, two East Coast stars have traveled to challenge the top older female out west, Adare Manor in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch.
Last year’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) and 3-year-old filly Eclipse winner, Pretty Mischievous, is entered in the race, along with Scylla, who has seen her stock rise after three straight wins at Churchill Downs, the most recent being the Fleur de Lis Stakes (G2).
Waiting for them at her home base is Adare Manor. The Bob Baffert-trained daughter of Uncle Mo is in the best form of her 17-race career, achieving her fastest speed figures in her last two starts. She also won outside her home state for the first time, taking the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn in April.
On the East Coast, the older males converge at Saratoga in the Whitney (G1). This year's renewal might lack in some quality for a race of the Whitney's magnitude, but it compensates with an eclectic and familiar lineup of contenders. Notably, the race features National Treasure, the top-ranked horse in the country, along with another promising entrant who appears to be a strong contender in this division moving forward.
Before I briefly dive into these two races, and what they could mean for the rankings below and the Eclipse races, let's take a look at this week’s updated division rankings.
Older dirt males
1. National Treasure. Dominant in the Met Mile (G1), he now leads this division. He returns to New York from his California home base for the Whitney this weekend at Saratoga.
2. Señor Buscador. His record this year has been impressive. He started the season with a close second-place finish to National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in January. He followed that with a victory in the Saudi Cup (G1) in February and a third-place finish in the Dubai World Cup (G1) in March. Now, the focus is on preparing for the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar in late August.
3. Kingsbarns. Very impressive in the Stephen Foster (G1) as he scored his first Grade 1 win. With two graded-stakes wins on the season, this son of Uncle Mo most certainly can contend for the Eclipse in this division. The Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) on Sept. 1 is likely his next start.
4.
5. Next. With only two starts this season, he has been dominant in both. Most recently, he won the Brooklyn (G2) at 11 furlongs, and before that he scored a win in a listed stakes at 12 furlongs. His win streak now stands at five, and although he hasn't yet faced top competition, he deserves a shot in a Grade 1, 1 1/4-mile race such as the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 1.
Next 5: Pyrenees, Bright Future, Skippylongstocking, Tapit Trice, Newgate
Older dirt females
1. Idiomatic. She returned to the winner's circle in her last race, the Molly Pitcher (G3), with a narrow victory after setting a very slow pace. Despite the win, there are concerns for her supporters. She was allowed a nearly 1:14 opening six furlongs but struggled to put away an overmatched field, winning by a head. Although she still leads the division, there are questions about whether her best days are behind her, as her speed figures have declined. All three of her starts this year have been slower than her last six starts last season. Her schedule for the rest of the season is set. She will race next in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga on Aug. 23, a race she won last year, and then conclude her season with the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland and the Breeders' Cup Distaff at Del Mar, both of which she also won last year.
2. Randomized. She delivered a stellar performance in the Ogden Phipps (G1), upsetting Idiomatic. Last fall, she nearly pulled off an upset against the same rival in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. Her season record stands at 1-for-2.
3. Adare Manor. Another start, another win for this mare. Most recently, she triumphed in the Santa Margarita (G2) at Santa Anita. Before that, she made an appearance outside her home state of California, winning impressively by more than five lengths in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn. She now boasts a record of 2-for-3 this season. A big test this weekend awaits in the Clement Hirsch.
4. Sweet Azteca. She returned to the races sprinting in the Great Lady M (G2) and scored another win. Now 4-for-5 in her career, she likely will stay sprinting for her next start, the Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga.
5. Scylla. This daughter of Tapit has risen through these ranks steadily and now has won her last three starts. Last out she scored a narrow win in the Fleur de Lis Stakes at Churchill Downs. She is 5-for-7 in her career and hasn't been off the board yet. Will face her toughest test to date in the Clement Hirsch this weekend.
Next 5: Pretty Mischievous, Raging Sea, Honor D Lady, Shotgun Hottie, Coffee in Bed
3-year-old males
1. Dornoch. I'll admit it, I was wrong about this colt. He's shown qualities on the track that have won me over, especially his gameness. He's really stepped up his game and clearly doesn't like to be passed when he has the lead in the stretch. With two consecutive big wins in the Belmont and Haskell (G1), he now sits atop this division. If he can win the Travers (G1) in his next start, he'll be the first since Point Given in 2001 to sweep the Belmont, Haskell and Travers.
2. Fierceness. Continued his good race-bad race pattern with a stellar performance in the Jim Dandy (G2) defeating Sierra Leone, among others. The question now is, can he win two in a row and take over leadership to this division? Probably not, but he could give it a go in the Travers.
3. Sierra Leone. Ran well in the Jim Dandy but came up short and finished second. The good news is he maintained a straight line in the stretch. Heading to the Travers next, he should be ready for a top performance, and I expect him to be the horse to beat in that big race.
4. Mystik Dan. He faltered in the Belmont, but he remains at the top because of his achievements in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. He also earns credit in my view for consistently showing up and competing, a quality few of the contenders below him can claim. Would be surprised to see him return to the races this season. Will drop in the coming weeks because of inactivity.
5. Forever Young. With one start in this country, this guy is ranked here even though he was likely the best horse who ran in the Kentucky Derby. Now 5-for-6 on his career, he globetrotted his way to Kentucky with wins this year in two countries already. Although it seems unlikely we'll see him in the U.S. again soon, the Breeders' Cup remains a possibility. Also will drop in the coming weeks because of inactivity.
Next 5: Seize the Grey, Mindframe, Muth, Batten Down, Catching Freedom
3-year-old fillies
1. Thorpedo Anna. She secured another win over her divisional rivals, this time in the CCA Oaks (G1), winning by just over four lengths. With three Grade 1 victories this season, she likely has secured the Eclipse Award for her division. Although her connections might be tempted to race her against males in the Travers for her next start, let's hope they resist that temptation, as she probably would be overmatched. The Alabama (G1) should be her next race.
2. Candied. Ran a good race when runner-up to the No. 1-ranked Thorpedo Anna in the CCA Oaks. Before that, she won the listed Ladyt's Secret Stakes at Monmouth.
3. Tarifa. Up the track in the Kentucky Oaks, but perhaps she disliked the off track. Still, with two graded-stakes wins this season, Tarifa stays in the top five here.
4. Sugar Fish. Came out of nowhere and dominated the Summertime Oaks (G2) to win by over nine lengths. This gal was coming off an optional-claimer win and before that broke her maiden in an optional claimer.
5. Nothing Like You. Finished a distant second to Sugar Fish last out in the Summertime Oaks at Santa Anita. This came after dominating the Santa Anita Oaks (G2), winning by more than seven lengths.
Next 5: Power Squeeze, Leslie's Rose, Kinza, Scalable, Ways and Means
Turf males
1. Johannes. Rockets to the top here after sitting No. 6 for the last few weeks. Why? Well, for starters he has run in and won three graded stakes already this season. His last, a powerhouse win in the Eddie Read (G2), came against a good field. Overall he is now 6-for-10 in his career and a major player in this division moving forward as he will not need to leave his home state of California with the Breeders' Cup being run at Del Mar.
2. Master of The Seas. He won the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) impressively in his last outing, adding to his tally of three Grade 1 victories in his last four starts in North America. But his absence until August means he will drop from his current position. I'm disappointed that his connections have decided to rest him for four months, with his next start scheduled for the Fourstardave (G1) on Aug. 10.
3. Cogburn. He's undefeated this season with a 2-for-2 record. In his last start, he scored a win in the Jaipur (G1) and set a record time, albeit on an exceptionally fast surface. Not since Stormy Liberal a few years ago has a turf sprinter held such a high ranking. It's worth noting that a turf sprinter can contend for an Eclipse Award in this division, as demonstrated by Stormy Liberal in 2018. Cogburn is firmly in the mix for this year's Eclipse honors. Will run this weekend in the Troy (G2) at Saratoga.
4. Measured Time. Dominated the Manhattan (G1) in his first start in this country. It was the first Grade 1 win for this son of Frankel.
5. Silver Knott. 3-for-3 in 2024 all coming in G2 events the last being the Bowling Green at Saratoga.
Next 5: Program Trading, Naval Power, Du Jour, Nation's Pride, Gold Phoenix
Turf females
1. Didia. Her last race in the Diana (G1) was somewhat disappointing, finishing fourth to Whitebeam, beaten by just over a length. But before that, she impressed with a strong win over a very good field in the New York Stakes (G1). Her season began with a victory in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January, followed by a third-place finish in the Jenny Wiley (G1) in April. She remains at the top in a very competitive division.
2. Whitebeam. Broke though in a big way last out to win the Diana over the deepest field of female turf horses this season. Before this big win, she was runner-up in her prior starts this season, both graded stakes.
3. Anisette. She was exceptional in her 2024 debut, winning the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita on Memorial Day. Since arriving in the country last season, she is 5-for-7, including four graded-stakes victories. Regarded as likely the best in the west, she poses a significant threat to ascend to the top of her division later this season.
4. War Like Goddess. At age 7, I keep expecting her to slow down, but she just keeps going strong. Most recently, she scored an easy win in the Robert G. Dick Memorial (G3) at Delaware Park. Remarkably, she will contend for an Eclipse in this division for the fourth consecutive season.
5. Chili Flag. Disappointed in the Diana (G1), finishing ninth after winning three in a row going in. The Just a Game (G1) winner on Belmont Stakes weekend still deserves to reside here in the top five.
Next 5: Beautee Cachee, Neecie Marie, English Rose, McKulick, Surge Capacity
Male sprinters
1. The Chosen Vron. This guy just keeps winning. He has a remarkable record by today's standards with 19 wins from 24 starts. 18 of this wins have come in stakes races. Last out he ran the best and fastest race of his career, speed-figure-wise, in the Bing Crosby (G1), winning that event for the second year in a row. He moves into the top spot here and will run for an Eclipse in the Breeders' Cup Sprint at Del Mar.
2. Nakatomi. Scored a nice win defeating Skelly in the Vanderbilt (G1) last out at Saratoga for his first win of 2024. Previously he had run third in both of his starts.
3. Skelly. Runner-up to Nakatomi in the Vanderbilt last out, he has not lost two in a row. Has won three races this year but only one graded stakes, the Count Fleet (G3) at Oaklawn.
4. Gun Pilot. Failed as the favorite in the True North (G2) on Belmont Stakes weekend, finishing third. But previously scored his first stakes win in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), defeating a few ranked below.
5. Baby Yoda. Disappointed in the Vanderbilt when off the board, but this 6-year-old veteran scored a six-length win in the True North (G2) prior to that.
Next 5: Closethegame Sugar, Super Chow, Happy Jack, Hoist the Gold, Twisted Ride
Female sprinters
1. Vahva. Scored an impressive win in the Chicago (G3) at Churchill Downs, running down Society in the stretch last out. Before this latest win she bested Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1) in early May, posting a facile two-length win after finishing runner-up to that rival in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in April. Will point to the Ballerina (G1) in August at Saratoga for her next start.
2. Alva Starr. Was 3-for-4 on the season, including a win in the Madison (G1). She was runner up to Vahva in the Derby City Distaff (G1) as well. Although she suffered a catastrophic injury during training and had to be euthanized, she still is among the top three in this division as of now and would be on Eclipse ballots.
3. Sweet Azteca. She is ranked here because two of her big wins this year were sprinting. She returned to the races sprinting in the Great Lady M (G2) and scored another win. Now she likely will stay sprinting for her next start, the Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga.
4. Society. Made her first start of 2024 in the Chicago (G3) and ran well but faded to third. This gal was fourth in last fall's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and likely needed the race. She should improve next time out. The Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga is the long-term goal.
5. Spirit Wind. Defeated Accede and Clearly Unhinged last out in the Honorable Miss (G2) at Saratoga. Before that big win she won a sprint stakes at Lone Star.
Next 5: Accede, Clearly Unhinged, Flying Connection, Red Carpet Ready, Almostgone Rocket
Adare Manor is looking for respect
For Adare Manor, this weekend's Clement Hirsch is
her biggest test since last fall's Breeders' Cup Distaff. Many believe she has
often faced weaker competition in California but struggles when up against
stronger from the Midwest or East Coast. However, this narrative could change
if she emerges victorious this weekend against Pretty Mischievous and Scylla.
Pretty Mischievous has been somewhat disappointing this season, finishing third in both her starts. The decision to race in California makes sense, with another start planned at Santa Anita in the Zenyatta (G1) before the Breeders' Cup Distaff at Del Mar. It's uncertain whether the change of scenery will benefit her, as she hasn't run as fast as Adare Manor and seems to have regressed from last season.
Scylla is a new contender in the division, having run five times already this season and winning her last three races. In her latest race she had to work harder than expected, she narrowly won the Fleur de Lis Stakes, defeating Shotgun Hottie by a diminishing neck.
I expect Adare Manor to win this weekend and establish herself as a legitimate contender for divisional honors.
On the East Coast at Saratoga, National Treasure (No. 1) stands out in the Whitney (G1). The most accomplished horse in the field of 12, National Treasure has three Grade 1 wins to his name. In contrast, the other 11 horses have a combined record of 1-for-28 in Grade 1 races.
The only horse I see potentially challenging National Treasure is Bright Future, the only other Grade 1 winner entered. Bright Future narrowly won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) late last year and had a respectable sixth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic, a little over three lengths behind the winner.
Bright Future made his 2024 debut in the Salvatore Mile (G3) at Monmouth, closing strongly to score an easy win, setting him up well for the Whitney.
Although these two favorites in the Whitney might offer little betting value, they seem to stand out from the field. If either or both run their best, no other horse in the race appears capable of beating them.