Division rankings: Oaklawn Handicap draws eclectic group

We’re nearly a fortnight away from the Kentucky Derby, and this weekend the older dirt males take over the spotlight from their younger counterparts. The Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap is on tap, and this year it doesn’t disappoint.

The historic race used to be the next big target for the older males after the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) held annually in March. But like the Big 'Cap, the Oaklawn Handicap has been severely impacted by the multimillion-dollar events in Saudi Arabia and Dubai.

But, this year at least, many of the relevant horses in the division are present and accounted for this weekend, except for Art Collector and West Will Power, who battled a few weeks ago in the New Orleans Handicap (G2).

Before I take a look at this race and what it could mean for the rankings, let's take a look at this week's updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Art Collector. Couldn't back up his January Pegasus World Cup (G1) win in the New Orleans Classic, where he finished runner-up to West Will Power. Do I believe he will be ranked in this spot by year's end? No. But there really is no other we can place up here right now, is there

2. Stilleto Boy. Has run strong in two starts this season. After a third-place finish in the Pegasus World Cup, he scored a popular win in a very deep Santa Anita Handicap. Being a gelding, his fan base will grow, and barring injury, he should be around for awhile. Will go next this weekend in the Oaklawn Handicap, where a win will move him to the top of this division.

3. Last Samurai. Started his season with a fourth-place finish behind Art Collector in the Pegasus but has won both his starts since, the Razorback (G3) and Essex (G3) at Oaklawn Park. He was flattered with the New Orleans Classic result when the horse he beat in the Razorback, West Will Power, beat Art Collector. He too can move to the top of this division with a win this weekend in the Oaklawn Handicap.

4. West Will Power. Easy winner over Art Collector in the New Orleans Classic. As with Art Collector, I'm going to need to see him put together more starts like that before we can take him seriously in this division. Resides here for now.

5. Country Grammer. After a close runner-up in the Saudi Cup (G1) he disappointed as the favorite in the Dubai World Cup (G1), finishing up the track.

Next 5: Cody's Wish, Defunded, Taiba, Endorsed, Proxy.

Older dirt females

1. Clairiere. Ran down Secret Oath last weekend in the Apple Blossom (G1) to take over divisional leadership for now. Previously she was runner-up to Secret Oath in the Azeri (G2) at Oaklawn.

2. Secret Oath. Did nothing really wrong in defeat last weekend running a great race in the Apple Blossom. I have a feeling these top two will battle in many races this season.
3. A Mo Reay. A new player in this division, this daughter of Uncle Mo has certainly matured from 3 to 4. Last season she was off the board in her only graded-stakes start and had minimal success in listed stakes. This season she is unbeaten in two starts, the Bayakoa (G3) at Oaklawn and the Beholder Mile (G1) last out at Santa Anita.

4. Nest. Overmatched in the Breeders' Cup Distaff when off the board, finishing fourth. But she won a trio of Grade 1 events in 2022 and was crowned with the Eclipse as the top 3-year-old filly. Might not see her until August on Belmont day in the Ogden Phipps (G1). Not a big fan of sitting a healthy horse for half the season while others in her division are running and stacking up Eclipse-worthy wins.

5. Search Results. Well beaten in the Breeder's Cup Distaff, she still had a great season, placing in all of her starts but one.

Next 5: Echo Zulu, Society, Matareya, Classy Edition, Fun to Dream.
3-year-old males

1. Forte. Gave his supporters a bit of a scare in the Florida Derby (G1), but he prevailed by a length as the 1-5 favorite over a very weak field by Florida Derby standards. Now 2-for-2 this season, he will go to Louisville as the Kentucky Derby favorite.
2. Angel of Empire. If these were Kentucky Derby rankings, this guy would be my No. 1 ranked horse. Facile winner of the Arkansas Derby (G1) last time out, he has really come into his own in his last two starts. Blossoming at the right time, the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby should be in his wheelhouse. My likely pick to come away with the roses.
3. Tapit Trice. Impressive winner last time in the Blue Grass (G1), and he gives the impression he will get even better the farther he goes. He might be the horse to beat on Kentucky Derby day. Very interesting horse. Before the Blue Grass he was a facile winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (G3).
4. Practical Move. Narrow winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) last time out, he will head to Louisville as one of the top choices, I guess. I can't get past his pedigree, though, and will likely fade him on my tickets. But given his resume, he is locked into this spot right now. 5. Kingsbarns. Another interesting horse. Won the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his first stakes start a few weeks ago, and overall this son of Uncle Mo is 3-for-3 on his career. But he's very light in experience when it comes to his Kentucky Derby chances. Hard to envision him being a serious player in Louisville, but perhaps he can use his speed to his advantage like he did in the Louisiana Derby, when he went wire to wire.

Next 7: Verifying, Two Phil's, Arabian Knight, Mage, First Mission, Disarm, Mandarin Hero.

3-year-old females
1. Faiza. Unbeaten in five career starts, she ran her best race so far in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) running off by over six lengths. She already has won three graded stakes in 2023.
2. Wet Paint. OK, I'm a believer now. She demolished the Fantasy (G3) field last out at Oaklawn and will head to Kentucky as the likely Oaks favorite. She is unbeaten in all four of her dirt track starts. 3. Southlawn. This division is dicey at the moment, and question marks abound. This gal is 2-for-2 this season and won the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) last time out. 4. Pretty Mischievous. Disappointing runner-up finish to Southlawn in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Before that effort she was impressive in the Rachel Alexandra (G2). Has taken a step forward from age 2 to 3 and remains in this spot. 5. And Tell Me Nolies. Runner-up again to Faiza, this time in the Santa Anita Oaks, she will head east now for a run in the Kentucky Oaks. We should get a good idea as to how she stacks up against the fillies based in the east and, more important, how Faiza stacks up since she will miss the Kentucky Oaks. Next 5: Defining Purpose, Punchbowl, Affirmative Lady, Julia Shining, Wonder Wheel.

Turf males

1. Modern Games. He couldn't make it easy for me? Disappointed as the runner-up last out in the Makers Mark Mile (G1), but he retains this top spot for now. This guy did win the Eclipse last season and at least has made a start in this country already. 

2. Chez Pierre. Surprise winner of the Makers Mark Mile, he went from 24-1 to 9-1 in the final tote board flash before they left the gate. Someone knew something. He didn't just win, he won by a wide margin quite easily. Before the Makers Mark, he had lost only one race from six starts, so perhaps that one loss in the Tampa Bay Stakes (G3) was an aberration.

3. Casa Creed. Now a 7-year-old, but he is in the best form of his career. He ran lights out when narrowly missing overseas in Saudi Arabia in the Turf Sprint (G3) and finishing second. The Saudi race was his first start this season.

4. Gold Phoenix. He had his chance to take over the top spot, and he couldn't come through last time out in the Whittingham Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita, where he finished fourth, beaten three lengths. Wanted to drop him more but given his resume thus far – he owns a Grade 1 win already this season – I can't. He has finished off the board only two times in 12 career starts, and I still believe is a major player in this division.

5. Hong Kong Harry. Simply didn't fire in the Kilroe Mile (G1) as the heavy favorite, finishing fourth. Was 5-for-6 last season with three graded-stakes wins. He still should contend in this division.

Next 5: Emmanuel, Atone, Spooky Channel, Highland Chief, Offlee Naughty.

Turf females

1. In Italian. Facile winner of last week's Jenny Wiley (G1) at Keeneland, she moves to this top spot for now. Previous to that she ran well when runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

2. War Like Goddess. Robbed of an Eclipse in 2021, she came very close in 2022 again but Regal Glory was the deserved winner. Back again in 2023, could the third time be the charm? An Eclipse contender again. Likely will make her 2023 debut at Keeneland in either the Elkhorn (G2) against males on April 22 or the Bewitch (G3) against fellow females six days later. Both races are at 12 furlongs.

3. Shantisara. Looked very good winning the Hillsborough (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs a couple weeks back, and before that she was runner-up to Queen Goddess in the Pegasus. This gal is a Grade 1 winner and a player in this division.

4. With the Moonlight. Runner-up to In Italian in the Jenny Wiley, this gal won her other two starts this season in Dubai, both Group 2.

5. Bleecker Street. Suffered the first loss of her career last time out in the Diana (G1) last summer after starting her career with seven straight victories. She put in her run from the back but had too much to do when finishing third. Back in training now and eying a spring comeback.

Next 5: Amazing Grace, Ballet Dancing, Caravel, White Frost, Queen Goddess.

Male sprinters

1. Elite Power. Certainly showed he is the best in the world now sprinting on the dirt. Overpowered the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3) field. Will come back to the states to run in major races and build a nice Eclipse-worthy resume.

2. Sibelius. Surprise winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), defeating Gunite, among others. Prior to that this guy won the listed Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Won his first graded stakes in late December at Gulfstream in the Mr. Prospector (G3).

3. Gunite. Disappointed somewhat in last out in the Golden Shaheen when third as the favorite. Previous to that he was simply the best of the rest when runner-up to Elite Power in Saudi Arabia.

4. Cody's Wish. Came on late at the end of last season, winning the Forego (G1) at Saratoga and narrowly winning the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile over Cyberknife. Will drop soon if he doesn't run.

5. Repo Rocks. Has won both of his 2023 starts, the Toboggan (G3) and the Stymie, a listed stakes, both at Aqueduct, but he disappointed as the heavy favorite last time out in the Carter (G1).

Next 5: Skelly, Doppelganger, Tejano Twist, American Theorem, Spirit of Makena.

Stilleto Boy and Last Samurai in search of respect

Although Art Collector sits atop the older dirt male rankings above, there really has been no standout through the first 15 weeks of the season. With participation by the U.S.-based runners overseas at an all-time low this year, the bulk of this division has remained stateside to run, and the results have been mixed.

This weekend’s Oaklawn Handicap presents a big opportunity for the No. 2-ranked Stilleto Boy and the No. 3-ranked Last Samurai. Both are now in the best form of their career, and both are now 5-year-old veterans. Between these two they have made 45 starts, but because they have been around for awhile and fans and media alike have gotten to know them, they aren’t being taken seriously in this division.

You are probably thinking, what do you mean they aren’t being taken seriously? Well, let’s start with Stilleto Boy.

Stilleto Boy is coming off of a popular and strong Santa Anita Handicap win but is 8-1 on the morning like of the Oaklawn Handicap, well behind a horse like Proxy (4-1) whom he soundly defeated at Santa Anita.

Most still have the Stilleto Boy they have seen race for the last three years in their memories, the one who tries hard but is a cut below the best in the division. But 2023 is a new year, and some horses don’t reach their full potential until age 5 or 6. Stilleto Boy is to be taken seriously this weekend, and with another win no one can argue that he will take over the top spot in a division that needs leadership.

What about Last Samurai? I will admit it. I am guilty of what I just wrote about above. It took me awhile to move him all the up to No. 3 in the rankings, and one could argue that he should be No. 1.

Before this season he was a horse who ran in some of the big events and picked up some nice checks along the way, but he ran off the board in the majority of his graded stakes attempts in 2022. In fact, Last Samurai won this event last year, albeit against a much weaker field than what he will be up against Saturday. But folks, this isn’t the Last Samurai we have gotten to know over the last couple of season. Like Stilleto Boy, this guy has improved.

Since his fourth-place finish in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) in January, he has won the Essex (G3) and Razorback (G3), the traditional lead-in races for this division held at Oaklawn. I’m still a bit skeptical of Last Samurai, but should he win this weekend, it will most certainly move him to No. 1 in this division and will shine him in a new light as well.

Curiously, the favorite for the Oaklawn Handicap is a horse who is more thought of for potential than what he has actually done in races. And if we are being brutally honest, he hasn’t lived up to the hype that surrounded him since last summer.

Charge It was supposed to be the top dog in this division in 2023. After running 17th in the Kentucky Derby he promptly won the Dwyer (G3) at Belmont by 23 lengths. In this sport, when a horse – any horse – wins a race by that margin, the hyperbole train starts to move fast.

After the Dwyer, some felt Charge It was the best in the division at that time off of that one win. Some felt he would win the Travers (G1). But physical setbacks set in, and Charge It missed the remainder of 2022. Back at Gulfstream in February in an optional claimer, Charge It won, but not like you’d expect a 2-5 favorite to win. He had to work for it. OK. He was off since July and his connections stated he needed the race. What else were they supposed to say?

His next start was the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) in what was billed as a highly anticipated stakes return by many, and Charge It found the waters deeper and failed as the favorite, finishing second.

It's time to recalibrate the expectations for Charge It. A nice horse for sure, but most certainly an underlay at 8-5 on the morning line of the Oaklawn Handicap.

The Oaklawn Handicap is exactly the type of the race the older dirt male division needs. A diverse group brought together from all parts of the country, each with something to prove.