Division rankings: Weekend Derby preps will shake things up

This weekend’s pair of graded stakes on the road to Kentucky Derby 2026 should provide more answers than questions. The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn and the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park take center stage, with six ranked 3-year-old males scheduled to run. Beyond those already in the rankings, several highly regarded colts enter with big expectations, and by the end of the weekend, we can start separating the contenders from the pretenders on the Kentucky Derby trail.

This is how the division stacks up for now, though this picture is likely to change after this weekend. At the moment, Paladin is the recency bias darling, sitting atop many lists but not this one. By Sunday, a new winner almost certainly will inherit that title. But could Litmus Test, Silent Tactic, Blackout Time or Napoleon Solo deliver the kind of performance that rockets them straight to the top?

3-year-old males

1. Nearly. A placeholder for now because I find it hard to believe another won't take his place up here. He was impressive in the Holy Bull (G3) last time out, but one has to wonder what level of competition he beat. Now his connections might wait two months for the Florida Derby (G1) as his next start. The Holy Bull was his first stakes win.

2. Plutarch. Of every 3-year-old ranked above or below him, this is the one I’m highest on. The problem is that he now is out with what trainer Bob Baffert said is body soreness. He will miss 30 days of training, and the Kentucky Derby is now out of consideration. With six career starts already under his belt, he took a significant step forward in his sophomore debut, capturing the Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. Although he broke his maiden on turf, he proved last fall that dirt is well within his scope, finishing a close third in the American Pharoah (G1) after narrowly missing a top-level score. His dam is Stellar Wind, a mare who many believe was robbed of the older dirt female Eclipse in 2017. Will likely drop after this week.

3. Paladin. He ground out a victory in the Risen Star in only his third career start, and his connections now plan to wait until April’s Blue Grass Stakes (G1) for his next appearance. The obvious comparison is Sierra Leone, who had the same number of starts at this stage and also ran in both the Remsen (G2) and the Risen Star. Sierra Leone was the better runner at this point, but Paladin might not need to be, depending on how the rest of this division develops.

4. Obliteration. Given how the Saudi Derby (G3) unfolded, I thought he might have run the best race of anyone in the field. He set the pace and was headed in the stretch yet fought back gamely to finish a narrow second to the late-running winner Al Haram. Before that, he had crushed a listed-stakes field in his 3-year-old debut. As with many ranked here this early in the season, distance remains a legitimate question. But based on what he’s shown so far, he has earned this spot, at least for now.

5. Silent Tactic. His Southwest Stakes (G2) win was only his second start over a dirt surface as he closed strongly in the stretch to be much the best. Certainly has the pedigree to go longer and appears to be a player in this division right now. Runs this weekend in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn.

Next 12: Golden Tempo, Renegade, Intrepido, Chip Honcho, Bravaro, Ted Noffey, Brant, Napoleon Solo, Litmus Test, Further Ado, Commandment, Blackout Time.

Of the two races, the Rebel intrigues me more than the Fountain of Youth. It features two highly regarded juveniles making their 3-year-old debuts in Blackout Time and Litmus Test. Both finished second and third behind eventual champion Ted Noffey in last fall’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. Blackout Time hasn’t been seen since, and Litmus Test went on to finish fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before closing out his 2-year-old season with a victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2).

For Bob Baffert, still feeling the sting of losing Plutarch from his Kentucky Derby roster, Litmus Test offers a chance to steady the ship. A win here would put him squarely back in the conversation. Blackout Time was a very good 2-year-old, but this is his first start at 3, and there are legitimate questions to answer. I like him, but he feels like an underlay at what figures to be a short price.

As for the rest, Silent Tactic might be the one they’re all chasing late. He’s bred to appreciate more ground and has a legitimate closing kick. If he produces another strong late run and gets the job done here, he could vault all the way to the top of the rankings above.

In South Florida, the Fountain of Youth revolves around one obvious name: Napoleon Solo. Why? Because he’s the only runner in the field with a graded-stakes victory. And to be fair, he’s done nothing wrong in two starts, winning both by open lengths. His most recent effort was a dominant score in the Champagne (G1) at Aqueduct last fall. The runner-up that day, Talkin, also is entered here, though he probably will scratch in favor of the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). He did little to flatter that Champagne form when finishing ninth in the Remsen behind Paladin and Renegade in his last start.

It’s entirely possible Napoleon Solo is operating on a different level than this field. If so, we’ll know Saturday. This feels like one of those win-or-nowhere types of races.

What makes this race especially interesting is that much of the buzz surrounds horses who haven’t even started in a stakes race yet.

Chief Wallabee has only a maiden win to his name and will take money largely because he’s trained by Bill Mott. Jackson Hole, who drew the 1 hole, pun intended, owns a maiden and an optional-claiming victory from two starts and comes from Todd Pletcher's barn. Despite their lack of stakes experience, both are legitimate contenders in a race where several others still have distance and seasoning questions to answer.

Solitude Dude, on the other hand, might find the 8 1/2 furlongs beyond his scope. If this were a sprint, he’d likely be my top choice.

The horse I’m most inclined to lean toward, though, is Bravaro. He finished second in the Holy Bull (G3) last time out and should offer great value here. In a race filled with hype and unanswered questions, he might be the one sitting on the right trip at the right price.

Older dirt males

1. Nysos. He showed me more in defeat in the Saudi Cup (G1) than he had in any of his previous wins. He displayed real heart in the stretch, giving Forever Young all he could handle in his one-length defeat. For those who question his stamina, I’m not convinced, as he was gaining on Forever Young late. Last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner earns the top spot here for now, especially with no certainty that several of the horses ranked below him will even make it to the races in 2026.

2. Sovereignty. He dominated an overmatched field in the Travers (G1), cementing a résumé that already places him among the most accomplished Kentucky Derby winners since American Pharoah. At the time, the Travers felt like a possible curtain call, but that doesn't appear to be the case now. If he does indeed run as a 4-year-old, expect a carefully managed campaign with no more than three or four starts.

3. Skippylongstocking. Winning the Pegasus World Cup (G1), the division’s biggest race so far, demands respect, especially given how convincingly he handled rivals ranked below him here. Do I expect him to remain in the upper half of the division all season? Probably not. But today’s rankings reward what has been accomplished, and for now, he stays.

4. Journalism. He delivered a career-best performance in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, finishing fourth and beaten by less than four lengths by the winner. Before that, he was runner-up to Fierceness in the Pacific Classic (G1). It was a strong campaign for the 3-year-old, one that clearly hinted at further improvement. Now officially a 4-year-old, he returned to his Santa Anita stable from Bridlewood Farm in Florida. Back in training, his connections are targeting the Met Mile (G1) in June.

5. White Abarrio. Ran very well in his seasonal debut last out in the Pegasus when runner-up to Skippyongstocking. Was well clear of the rest and still has gas in the tank at age 7. Could run at Oaklawn in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) for his next start.

Next five: Hit Show, Baeza, Magnitude, Nevada Beach, Knightsbridge.

Older dirt females

1. Nitrogen. Ran very well in her seasonal debut last out in the Bayakoa (G3) at Oaklawn. She appears to be maybe better now at age 4. Last fall she exceeded expectations with a runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, a performance that secured her the 3-year-old filly Eclipse for 2025. The Azeri (G2) on March 7 is next.

2. Cavalieri. She missed the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, but Cavalieri’s performance in the Zenyatta (G2) was still an eye-opener, particularly in light of a disastrous break and a six-month layoff. If she can stay healthy, she will be a handful for any member of this division. Stays here for now until those below start racing. Nearing a return to the worktab.

3. Clicquot. Her fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff was a respectable effort and capped a late-season surge. She was a surprise winner of the Cotillion (G1) before the Breeders’ Cup and had reeled off four consecutive victories, including the Indiana Oaks (G3).

4. Seismic Beauty. She turned in a disappointing effort as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, easing through the wire and finishing second to last. Before that she delivered a strong, front-running performance to capture the Clement L. Hirsch (G1), going gate to wire. Another one who struggles to stay sound. She recently was sent to Baffert's division at Los Alamitos to prepare for her 2026 campaign.

5. Good Cheer. She clearly was not the same filly who captured the Kentucky Oaks (G1), finishing off the board in the Cotillion and beaten by more than six lengths. Looks to get back on track in 2026.

Next five: Nafisa, Regaled, Shred the Gnar, Fully Subscribed, Grand Job.

3-year-old fillies

1. Zany. Won her seasonal debut at Tampa Bay in the Suncoast Stakes, running her record to 3-for-3. At age 2 she was a dominant winner of the Demoiselle (G2), with her only other start a win over maidens. Still not sure what to make yet of this daughter of American Pharoah because she hasn't been overly fast, but she resides here for now in what is looking like another subpar group of 3-year-old fillies.

2. Bella Ballerina. The Golden Rod (G2) winner at age 2 prevailed in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) in her 3-year-old debut last time out, running her record to 3-for-3. 

3. Taken by the Wind. Made her 2026 debut a winning one last out in the Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds to run her record to 3-for-3. She won the Pocahontas (G3) last year at age 2.

4. Meaning. Impressed in the Las Virgenes Stakes in her seasonal debut. Her final start at age 2 saw her finish fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She is 2-for-3 so far in her career.

5. Percy’s Bar. She finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and appears to be moving in the right direction. She clearly was the best horse in the Alcibiades (G1), crossing the wire first before being disqualified for stretch interference, a performance that followed a runner-up finish in the Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga.

Next five: Bottle of Rouge, Explora, Super Corredora, Tommy Jo,  On Time Girl.

Turf males

1. Deterministic. He has put together three consecutive graded-stakes victories capped by back-to-back Grade 1 wins. Most recently he dominated the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga after capturing the shortened 1 1/8-mile Manhattan (G1) the day after the Belmont Stakes. He finished 3-for-4 in 2025.

2. Formidable Man. He turned in a career-best effort in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, finishing second and quieting critics who questioned whether he had been flattered by softer California competition. On the season he captured three graded stakes, including the Kilroe Mile (G1), earning his place among the division’s top contenders in 2026.

3. Rhetorical. Finished 4-for-5 in 2025. His only loss was a fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Mile, which came one race after his win in the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland.

4. Wolfie's Dynaghost. A winner of two graded stakes in a row, he won the Fort Lauderdale (G3) last out in late December to finish off 2025 with four wins from six starts. Runs this weekend in the Canadian Turf (G3) at Gulfstream.

5. Test Score. Won the Pegasus Turf (G1) in his first start as a 4-year-old. He was a three time graded stakes winner on the grass as a 3-year-old.

Next five: One Stripe, Redistricting, Layabout, Program Trading, Mondego.

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. She once again showed up in a big way, turning in a gutsy performance in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf over a distance I felt stretched her limitations. She finished second and did more than enough over the course of the season to secure the Eclipse in this division in 2025. She won three of her five starts and finished second in the other two. Expected to return this season.

2. Shisospicy. The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner is on a five-race winning streak in the U.S. She was dominant in all three of her graded-stakes victories in 2025, which led to her winning the Eclipse vote as North America's top female sprinter. 

3. Segesta. Won the Matriarch (G1) last fall for her first top-level score, and before that she was runner-up in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland. 

4. Lush Lips. Won her last two starts in 2025, the Queen Elizabeth (G1) and Miss Revere (G2), and was never worse than second in seven starts. Returns this weekend in the Honey Fox (G3) at Gulfstream.

5. Dynamic Pricing. She finished off the board in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland, but her overall résumé still justifies a top-five ranking. She ran third in the Diana (G1), well behind the division’s top two, and she broke through with her first Grade 1 victory in the Just a Game before backing it up with a win in the Perfect Sting at Saratoga.

Next five: Laurelin, Ag Bullet, Destino d'Oro, Queen Maxima, Speed Shopper.

Male sprinters

1. Book’em Danno. Winner of four his five starts in 2025, he starts the season on top here. Could still make his seasonal debut in Dubai.

2. Bentornato. The Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner scored that win in only his second start of the season. Although it wasn’t enough to earn my Eclipse vote last season, a more active campaign in 2026 could change that. 

3. Imagination. Ran well as the favorite in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) to score a win for the U.S. He finished last season with a strong runner-up effort in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2) winner made only three starts in 2025, but each was competitive. This guy will be a force to be reckoned with in this division this season.

4. Dr. Venkman. The hard-knocking gelding showed up once again, missing the runner-up spot in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint by a nose when finishing third. Earlier in 2025 he captured the Pat O’Brien (G2) and consistently hit the board in three additional graded stakes, rounding out another dependable and productive campaign. Expected to be back in 2026.

5. Bishops Bay. As expected he wasn't a factor in the Saudi Cup but he did win the Cigar Mile (G2) previously. This guy is more of miler and stuck between divisions, but he has a better chance in 2026 to be a player in this division rather than the older dirt male division. 

Next five: Lovesick Blues, Nakatomi, Crazy Mason, Roll on Big Joe, Midland Money.