Division rankings: These 4 colts could win the Kentucky Derby

Let’s see, with so many divisions below impacted with racing this weekend what direction should I go this week?

Kentucky Derby aside, it’s a loaded weekend at Churchill Downs.

Three of the older dirt males ranked in my top five, Last Samurai (No. 2), Art Collector (No. 3) and West Will Power (No. 5), are in action Friday in the Alysheba (G2) which also features the return of 2022 Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike. Four races later the La Troienne (G1) features three of the top five older dirt females, Secret Oath (No. 2), A Mo Reay (No. 3) and Search Results (No. 5).

On the turf side, we have several ranked in top 10 of the male and female divisions who are in action. Both sprint divisions are well represented Saturday with several ranked runners. Chief among them is Cody’s Wish (No. 4). Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile winner is set to make his 2023 debut in Saturday's Churchill Downs Stakes (G1). Goodnight Olive (No. 1) will look for her eighth straight win and continued dominance of the female sprint division.

But let’s not beat around the bush any longer. The Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks take center stage this weekend. Both obviously will have a huge impact on the rankings below and in the year-long Eclipse races.

Before dive into my Kentucky Derby thoughts, let's take a look at this week's updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Stilleto Boy. Yes, I will catch heat for placing him up top here, but here we are. This guy did all the running last out in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and fell just short at the wire to lose by two noses to Proxy, a horse he defeated in his previous two starts this season. Given that, he has to be ranked ahead of Proxy. Recency bias doesn't exist in these rankings, so the head-to-head record along with his Grade 1 win matters here.

2. Last Samurai. Ran a great race in the Oaklawn Handicap, getting nosed out for the win. He has split his two meetings with Proxy this season and has arguably the better resume. Close call here, but I ranked him ahead of Proxy because I think he has been better in 2023. Before the Oaklawn Handicap he won the Razorback (G3) and Essex (G3) at Oaklawn Park. This guy wheels right back to run tomorrow in the Alysheba, only 13 days after his Oaklawn run. I love the move. If he wins, he will move to the top.

3. Art Collector. Couldn't back up his January Pegasus World Cup (G1) win in the New Orleans Classic (G2), where he finished runner-up to West Will Power. Do I believe he will be ranked this high by year's end? No. He gets a shot to move back up in the Alysheba Stakes Friday.

4. Proxy. Closed well to score his first stakes win of the season and second of his career in the Oaklawn Handicap. But I need to see much more from this guy. The Oaklawn was his first win of the season after an off-the-board finish in the Pegasus World Cup and his runner-up finish to Stilleto Boy in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1).

5. West Will Power. Easy winner over Art Collector in the New Orleans Classic. As with Art Collector, I'm going to need to see him put together more starts like that before I can take him seriously in this division. Resides here for now and could move up with a win in the Alysheba Friday at Churchill Downs.

Next 5: Defunded, Country Gammer, Cody's Wish, Taiba, Endorsed.

Older dirt females

1. Clairiere. Ran down Secret Oath last out in the Apple Blossom (G1) to take over divisional leadership for now. Previously she was runner-up to Secret Oath in the Azeri (G2) at Oaklawn.

2. Secret Oath. Did nothing really wrong in defeat when running a great race in the Apple Blossom. I have a feeling these top two will battle in many races this season. Love that she runs again this weekend in the La Troienne (G1)
3. A Mo Reay. A new player in this division, this daughter of Uncle Mo has certainly matured from 3 to 4. Last season she was off the board in her only graded-stakes start and had minimal success in listed stakes. This season she is unbeaten in two starts, the Bayakoa (G3) at Oaklawn and the Beholder Mile (G1) last out at Santa Anita. She gets her shot now to rocket near the top as she shipped east to run in the La Troienne Friday.

4. Nest. Overmatched in the Breeders' Cup Distaff when off the board, finishing fourth. But she won a trio of Grade 1 events in 2022 and was crowned with the Eclipse as the top 3-year-old filly. Might not see her until June on Belmont day in the Ogden Phipps (G1). Not a big fan of sitting a healthy horse for half the season while others in her division are running and stacking up Eclipse-worthy wins.

5. Search Results. Well beaten in the Breeder's Cup Distaff, she still had a great season, placing in all of her starts but one. Makes her seasonal debut in the La Troienne.

Next 5: Echo Zulu, Society, Matareya, Classy Edition, Fun to Dream.
3-year-old males

1. Forte. Gave his supporters a bit of a scare in the Florida Derby (G1), but he prevailed by a length as the 1-5 favorite over a very weak field by Florida Derby standards. Now 2-for-2 this season, he is in Louisville as the Kentucky Derby favorite and is one of the few in the field who I think have a shot to win.
2. Angel of Empire. If these were Kentucky Derby rankings, this guy would be my No. 1-ranked horse. Facile winner of the Arkansas Derby (G1) last time out, he has really come into his own in his last two starts. Blossoming at the right time, the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby should be in his wheelhouse. My likely pick to come away with the roses.
3. Tapit Trice. Impressive winner last time in the Blue Grass (G1), and he gives the impression he will get even better the farther he goes. He might be the horse to beat on Kentucky Derby day. Very interesting horse. Before the Blue Grass he was a facile winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (G3).
4. Practical Move. Narrow winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) last time out, he will head to Louisville as one of the top choices, I guess. I can't get past his pedigree, though, and will likely fade him on my tickets. But given his resume, he is locked into this spot right now. Kentucky Derby pretender? 5. Kingsbarns. Another interesting horse. Won the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his first stakes start a few weeks ago, and overall this son of Uncle Mo is 3-for-3 on his career. But he's very light in experience when it comes to his Kentucky Derby chances. Hard to envision him being a serious player in Louisville, but perhaps he can use his speed to his advantage like he did in the Louisiana Derby (G2), when he went wire to wire.

Next 7: Verifying, Two Phil's, Arabian Knight, Mage, First Mission, Disarm, Mandarin Hero.

3-year-old females
1. Faiza. Unbeaten in five career starts, she had her best race so far in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) to run off by more than six lengths. She already has won three graded stakes in 2023.
2. Wet Paint. I'm a believer now. She demolished the Fantasy (G3) field last out at Oaklawn and is in Kentucky as the likely Oaks favorite. She is unbeaten in all four of her dirt track starts. 3. Southlawn. This division is dicey at the moment, and question marks abound. This gal is 2-for-2 this season and won the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) last time out. 4. Pretty Mischievous. Disappointing runner-up finish to Southlawn in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Before that effort she was impressive in the Rachel Alexandra (G2). Has taken a step forward from age 2 to 3 and remains in this spot. 5. And Tell Me Nolies. Runner-up again to Faiza, this time in the Santa Anita Oaks, she will head east now for a run in the Kentucky Oaks. We should get a good idea as to how she stacks up against the fillies based in the east and, more important, how Faiza stacks up since she will miss the Kentucky Oaks. Next 5: Defining Purpose, Punchbowl, Affirmative Lady, Julia Shining, Wonder Wheel.

Turf males

1. Modern Games. He couldn't make it easy for me? Disappointed as the runner-up last out in the Maker's Mark Mile (G1), but he retains this top spot for now. This guy did win the Eclipse last season and at least has made a start in this country already.

2. Chez Pierre. Surprise winner of the Maker's Mark Mile, he went from 24-1 to 9-1 in the final tote board flash before they left the gate. He didn't just win, he won by a wide margin quite easily. Before the Maker's Mark, he had lost only one race from six starts, so perhaps that one loss in the Tampa Bay Stakes (G3) was an aberration?

3. Casa Creed. Now a 7-year-old, but he is in the best form of his career. He ran lights out when narrowly missing overseas in Saudi Arabia in the Turf Sprint (G3) and finishing second. The Saudi race was his first start this season.

4. Gold Phoenix. He had his chance to take over the top spot, but he couldn't come through last time out in the Whittingham Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita, where he finished fourth, beaten three lengths. Wanted to drop him more, but I can't because his resume includes a Grade 1 win already this season. He has finished off the board only two times in 12 career starts, and I still believe is a major player in this division.

5. Hong Kong Harry. Simply didn't fire in the Kilroe Mile (G1) as the heavy favorite, finishing fourth. Was 5-for-6 last season with three graded-stakes wins. He still should contend in this division. Will run this weekend at Churchill Downs.

Next 5: Emmanuel, Atone, Spooky Channel, Highland Chief, Offlee Naughty.

Turf females

1. War Like Goddess. Was outstanding in her return to the races last week running away in the Bewitch (G3) at Keeneland. Simply put, she is the best long-distance grass horse based in the U.S. of either gender.

2. In Italian. Facile winner of the Jenny Wiley (G1) two weeks ago at Keeneland, she moves to this top spot for now. Before that she ran well when runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

3. Shantisara. Looked very good winning the Hillsborough (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs a few weeks back, and before that she was runner-up to Queen Goddess in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G3). This gal is a Grade 1 winner and a player in this division. Will run in this weekend's Modesty (G3) at Churchill Downs.

4. With the Moonlight. Runner-up to In Italian in the Jenny Wiley, this gal won her other two starts this season in Dubai, both Group 2.

5. Bleecker Street. Suffered the first loss of her career last time out in the Diana (G1) last summer after starting her career with seven straight victories. She put in her run from the back but had too much to do when finishing third. Back in training now and eying a spring comeback.

Next 5: Amazing Grace, Ballet Dancing, Caravel, White Frost, Queen Goddess.

Male sprinters

1. Elite Power. Certainly showed he is the best in the world now sprinting on the dirt. Overpowered the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3) field. Will come back to the states to run in major races and build a nice Eclipse-worthy resume.

2. Sibelius. Surprise winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), defeating Gunite, among others. Prior to that this guy won the listed Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Won his first graded stakes in late December at Gulfstream in the Mr. Prospector (G3).

3. Gunite. Disappointed somewhat in last out in the Golden Shaheen when third as the favorite. Before that he was simply the best of the rest when runner-up to Elite Power in Saudi Arabia.

4. Cody's Wish. Came on late at the end of last season, winning the Forego (G1) at Saratoga and narrowly winning the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile over Cyberknife. Runs next in the Churchill Downs (G1) on Kentucky Derby day.

5. Repo Rocks. Won his first three 2023 starts, the Toboggan (G3) and the Stymie, a listed stakes, both at Aqueduct, and the black-type Blitzen at Parx, but he disappointed as the heavy favorite last time out in the Carter (G1).

Next 5: Skelly, Doppelganger, Tejano Twist, American Theorem, Spirit of Makena.

Female sprinters

1. Goodnight Olive.  The Eclipse winner from last season started her season off with a win in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland a couple of weeks ago. She did have to work for it, but a win is a win and this gal has won seven in a row, including three stakes events. She too runs this weekend in the Derby City Distaff (G1).

2. Wicked Halo. This 4-year-old filly ran well in the Breeders' Cup last fall to finish third in the Filly & Mare Sprint. Before that effort she won two Grade 2 events, the Raven Run at Keeneland and the Prioress Stakes at Saratoga. She returned this season in the Matron Stakes at Oaklawn a few weeks ago and defeated the highly regarded Matareya. Will give Goodnight Olive a test this weekend in the Derby City.

3. Echo Zulu. This gal ran well against her elders, finishing runner-up to Goodnight Olive in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall. Expecting a big year from her.

4. Frank's Rockette. Won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) at Gulfstream in early March and is back this weekend at Churchill Downs in the Roxelana Stakes.

5. Fun to Dream. Winner of the Santa Monica (G2) earlier this season, her connections tried to stretch out last time in the Beholder Mile (G1) where she finished runner-up.

Next 5: Maryquitecontray, Elm Drive, Swayin to and Fro, Matereya, Society.

Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice lead my list of contenders

Last week I opined that perhaps this year’s Kentucky Derby isn’t as wide open as some of the previous years, and you know what? I’m sticking to that opinion.

No. 2 Angel of Empire and No. 3 Tapit Trice are my A list horses in this year’s race. Both check all the boxes for me. Both have pedigrees that indicate the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby should be right in their wheelhouse, they like to win, they have connections who have been here before and are experienced, they have drawn well post-position-wise, and both have figured out ways to navigate traffic with their come-from-behind style of racing to get the job done.

To supporters of Angel of Empire who are worried about the 94 Beyer Speed Figure that was assigned to him last out in his Arkansas Derby win, I wouldn’t put much stock in that. While it is several points below others in this race, looking back and analyzing racing that day at Oaklawn, I have that figure in the 98-99 range.

Tapit Trice appears to me to be the horse to beat. As I write this I have trouble separating these two. Tapit Trice has done little wrong in his career, but some don’t like his tendency to break poorly. His win in the Blue Grass last out was much better as he broke well, and he showed that he can handle a fight as he prevailed in a tight finish with Verifying.

Look, this guy will be putting in his run, no matter how far back he is, and I don’t see any horse in this race who will pass him in the stretch. He just seems to be getting better, and only severe traffic trouble would compromise his chances. He should be right there at the end.

Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice are my two likeliest winners of the race.

Forte (No. 1) is the 2-year-old champion from last year and hasn’t lost since. The knock on Forte is that he has regressed speed-figure-wise in both of his races this year. That does concern me to a degree. Did he plateau in his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win? What about the horses he beat up on in Florida in his two starts this year? These are valid questions. Still, Forte is a fighter and loves to win, so no one should be surprised if he gets the job done.

The last horse who won the Kentucky Derby after winning the Breeders’ Cup and 2-year-old Eclipse? Nyquist. He also used the Florida Derby as his final tune-up race.

Disarm (No. 11) is a long shot in the Kentucky Derby who has only a maiden win to his credit. With five starts in his career, he hasn’t delivered on the expectations of many. His runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby to Kingsbarns was fantastic. He closed into a dawdling pace there, and in his next start, the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland, he was up against it pace-wise again, and he ran evenly to finish third.

I loved Disarm before the Lexington and won’t jump off of him now at these odds. He too has a pedigree that should relish the Kentucky Derby distance. The connections are battle tested in situations like this, and we know trainer Steve Asmussen has a Kentucky Derby with his name on it at some point. Given the right pace scenario, I feel like this guy could be there in the end, or at the very least as a part of the exotics.

The four above are the four horses I will key all wagers around.

Now, let’s briefly go through some horses I don’t like in this race.

Two Phil’s has done his best racing on synthetic, that’s where he’s run his fastest races. On the dirt he is good, but not the same horse he is on synthetic. Reincarnate has had more than enough chances to impress, and he just hasn’t impressed me enough. I think he is a cut below several who are entered, and I will safely toss him from my tickets. Kingsbarns has only three starts and won last time setting a ridiculously slow pace that won't happen on Saturday. Pass.

Practical Move is one of the favorites. He has been impressive but I think we started to see evidence of his pedigree kick in last time in the Santa Anita Derby, where he held on for a win. I do not think the 10 furlongs will be to his liking, and although I will keep him on some tickets for the underneath spots like third or fourth, I can’t envision this son of Practical Joke in the winner’s circle.

If the track comes up sloppy then Raise Cain certainly moves up, but if we get a dry track I can’t envision this guy making an impact given what we have seen so far. I think we have a good gauge on Rocket Can, he is a cut below the best and it would be a surprise to see him on the board. If Lord Miles or Continuar make an impact it would be a shock to many, but I guess Rich Strike taught us that nothing is impossible.

Who have I left out? Verifying is certainly a contender for the underneath spots, and I could him vying the lead turning for home. Hit Show, Confidence Game, Skinner, et al, certainly could crash the superfecta.

But as far as the win spot, the four above I rate the highest.

One highly regard horse I didn’t mention, Derma Sotogake.

In past years he might have been my pick, but I have been burned too often with by the UAE Derby (G2) angle in the last few years. We know eventually a Kentucky Derby winner will come from that race, but I need to see it first.

Derma Sotogake certainly looked good in Dubai, but who did he really beat? In his race before Dubai, he was third losing to a horse named Commissioner King who has never run outside of Saudi Arabia. For Derma Sotogake I suppose the best way for him to win Saturday is to grab the early lead and set slow fractions and see if he can hold on? I don’t know, he won’t take my money but nothing would surprise me after last year’s results.

One last thing as far as the rankings are concerned. Last year Epicenter was ranked No. 1 going into the Kentucky Derby. Epicenter lost but was still No. 1 a week later, and he remained in the top spot for every week thereafter in 2022. So winning the Kentucky Derby doesn’t mean you are the top ranked 3-year-old.

Lastly, keep all of the horses and jocks who put their lives on the line each day to keep this sport alive in your prayers. Specifically, that every horse and jockey makes it through the weekend safely when the eyes of the world on cast on this sport at Churchill Downs. That is the No. 1  priority to me.

Good luck to everyone with their wagering and rooting interests.