Division rankings: Kentucky Derby drama and the aftermath

Last weekend’s Kentucky Derby was one for the ages. The stretch drive drama between Mystik Dan, Forever Young and Sierra Leone was the most exciting we have seen in a Kentucky Derby in the modern era.

Mystik Dan, to the surprise of many, held on to prevail by a nose over Sierra Leone with Japan’s Forever Young another nose back in third. In the moment, it was what this game is all about, and we couldn’t have asked for a more exciting finish.

But for Forever Young and Sierra Leone, the race's conclusion marked the beginning of narrative that, surprisingly, hasn't gained much traction in this country, and I'm not sure why.

The stewards' primary responsibility is to uphold the rules of racing and investigate any potential infractions, using video footage and photo finishes to determine the race's outcome. Given the evident bumping between Sierra Leone and Forever Young, as well as Sierra Leone's jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, making contact with Forever Young and the tight photo finish, it was unacceptable for the stewards not to initiate an inquiry.

Further, the Churchill Downs stewards' failure to intervene was perplexing, especially given the circumstances of a nail-biting finish, evident bumping and the eyes of the entire racing community focused on this event.

Setting everything aside, when jockey Tyler Gaffalione reached out to strike Forever Young in deep stretch it was a foul and rules were broken, which should have resulted in Sierra Leone being demoted to third according to Kentucky Administrative Regulations (810 KAR 4:040.12.3) governing the race.

There is no debate here, and anyone telling you otherwise is highly misinformed on the rules in place.

Would the stewards have acted differently if Forever Young, the Japan-owned and -bred horse, had been the one causing the interference, thereby preventing Sierra Leone, the Kentucky-bred American horse, from possible winning? I believe it's a valid question worth asking, and in my opinion, the answer is yes.

Many may have viewed the brief 8-second snippet of the stretch drive, but here is the comprehensive 24-second clip showcasing the entire sequence of events. After watching this footage, it's difficult to argue against Sierra Leone's disqualification.

The day after the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission released a statement about the incident between the Sierra Leone and Forever Young. I'll go through that below, but first, let's take a look at the updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Señor Buscador. Despite finishing third in the Dubai World Cup (G1) in his most recent outing, Señor Buscador retains his no. 1 spot. His record this year thus far as been good, winning the Saudi Cup (G1) before his Dubai appearance. He kicked off the season with a close second-place finish to National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in January. The focus now will be on preparing for the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar in late August, potentially making a start in the San Diego Handicap (G2) in late July as a prep.

2. National Treasure. He finished fourth in the Saudi Cup, but he put in a commendable performance and fell short by just under two lengths. Holding steady at the no. 2 spot, the winner of the Pegasus World Cup has once again demonstrated his maturity in his recent races. Back in the U.S, look for him to return in the summer months.

3. First Mission. Started his season with a ninth-place finish in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) but had been impressive in two starts since, winning both the Essex (G3) at Oaklawn and the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs on Friday.

4. White Abarrio. No excuses when off the board in the Saudi Cup, and one has to wonder whether running overseas with his trainer under a microscope had anything to do with it. The Breeders' Cup Classic winner from last season will run the rest of the year in the U.S., where he will try to get back to the dramatic form reversal we witnessed over his three starts before the Saudi Cup. His connections have outlined plans for just three more races this season. The next target is the Met Mile (G1), followed by appearances in the Whitney (G1) and concluding the season with the Breeders' Cup Classic.

5. Saudi Crown. Struggling to find his stride in the Godolphin Mile (G2), he finished a disappointing 12th. The inability to secure an early lead seemed to be his downfall. Before the setback in Dubai, he came close to victory in the Saudi Cup, fading in the late stages to secure a respectable third place, falling short by 3/4 of a length. Looking ahead, the Met Mile in June is being considered for his next race.

Next 5: Skippylongstocking, Newgate, Kingsbarns, Angel of Empire, Red Route One

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Looked better than ever in her return last week, winning the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs by a little over three lengths. She has won nine of her last 10 starts.

2. Sweet Azteca. Won her first graded stakes last out in the Beholder Mile (G1). She is 3-for-4 in her short career. 

3. Adare Manor. Made a rare appearance outside of her home state of California and won the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn impressively by more than five lengths. She appears to have moved forward off of a runner-up effort to Sweet Azteca in the Beholder Mile in her prior race. She is indeed a major player in this division and is actually running in races while other expected contenders continue to sit on the bench.

4. Pretty Mischievous. The 3-year-old female Eclipse winner from 2023, this gal also returned in the La Troienne and ran a decent third, five lengths back of idiomatic.

5. Randomized. Was upset her in 2024 debut last weekend, finishing runner-up in the Ruffian (G2) at Aqueduct. Last fall she was runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Distaff as a 3-year-old.

Next 5: Free like a Bird, Coffee in Bed, Desert Dawn, Bellamore, Super Shine.

3-year-old males

1. Sierra Leone. May not be a popular choice here but this guy did nothing in Kentucky Derby defeat to warrant moving him down from this spot. He and Forever Young were likely the best horses in the Derby won by Mystik Dan, but he came up a nose short. Will skip the Preakness and point for the Belmont over 10 furlongs at Saratoga.

2. Mystik Dan. Jockey Brian Hernandez rode a great race to guide this son of Goldencents to Kentucky Derby glory. For Mystik Dan, this was his first stakes win over a fast track. He is likely to wheel back in the Preakness next week.
3. Forever Young. With one start in this country, this guy is ranked and will debut here in this spot even though he was likely the best horse who ran in the Kentucky Derby. Now 5-for-6 on his career, he globetrotted his way to Kentucky with wins this year in two countries already. I think it is a long shot we see him stateside again, but the Breeders' Cup is still a small possibility.

4. Muth. Dominated the Arkansas Derby (G1) last out and is now 2-for-2 on the season as he impressed to win going away in the San Vicente (G2) in January. Last season at age 2 he was second best in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and won the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita. Will be favored in the Preakness next week.
5. Catching Freedom. Ran very well to be fourth in Louisville, affirming his status in the top tier of this division. Previously he closed well to take the Louisiana Derby (G2).

Next 10: Fierceness, Honor Marie, Just a Touch, Endlessly, Domestic Product, Just Steel, Resilience, Stronghold, Imagination, Dornoch

3-year-old females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Dominated a deep Kentucky Oaks and proved she is the real deal. Now 4-for-5 on her career, she may take on the boys in her next start.

2. Just F Y I. Ran well to be runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks after only one race in 2024. She has shown she matured from age 2 and is a real contender in this division moving forward.
3. Tarifa. Up the track in the Kentucky Oaks, but perhaps she disliked the off track. Still, with two graded-stakes wins this season, Tarifa stays in the top five here. 

4. Nothing Like You. Dominated the Santa Anita Oaks (G2), winning by more than seven lengths and leaving Kinza in her wake. Was that an aberration? Possibly. Still, a nice effort.

5. Kinza. No excuses when runner-up to Nothing Like you last out in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2. In her prior three starts she was dominant, posting two graded-stakes wins this season.

Next 5: Regulatory Risk, Leslie's Rose, Power Squeeze, Tamara, Jody's Pride

Turf males

1. Master of The Seas. We finally have a solid leader of this division after he won the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) last out in dominating fashion. He now has three Grade 1 scores from his last four starts in North America. But the problem is he won't run again until August, so he will fall from this spot. For now, he is up top, but I'm disappointed the connections will bench him for four months and wait untill the Aug. 10 Fourstardave (G1) for his next start.

2. Program Trading. Returned in the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs on Derby weekend and scored a head win over Naval Power. Last year he won the Hollywood Derby (G1) in his last start in December. Could be the best in this division.

3. Naval Power. This guy is 6-for-9 in his career and this year he has just missed when runner-up in two Grade 1 events here stateside, the last being the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs. Won a Group 2 event in Dubai earlier this season.

4. Du Jour. Overpowered the Kilroe Mile field last out for his first Grade 1 win. Before that he was off the board in the Breeder's Cup Mile and won one graded stakes in 2023.

5. I'm Very Busy. Disappointed in the Turf Classic at Churchill finishing seventh, beaten a little over six lengths. Before that effort he won the Muniz (G2) at Fair Grounds. In his other start this season he was runner-up in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1).

Next 5: Missed the Cut, Easter, Johannes, Gold Phoenix, Master Piece

Turf females

1. English Rose. It's early in this division with no clear standout, and this gal resides on top for now after her runner-up in the Jenny Wiley (G1), where she finished ahead of several ranked below. She has run two other times this season, both overseas, wining a Group 2 stakes and finishing runner-up in another. The Just a Game (G1) on Belmont Day is next.

2. Didia. The winner of the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January, she won two graded stakes last season and was 10th in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She finished third in the Jenny Wiley.

3. Gina Romantica. Sort of a disappointment in the Jenny Wiley, she finished seventh, beaten over seven lengths in her first start of 2024. Last season she made only four starts but scored a big win in the First Lady (G1) and then finished a very good fourth in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

4. Beaute Cachee. In the best form of her career now at age 5, this Chad Brown-trained daughter of Literato scored her first Grade 1 win in the Jenny Wiley at odds of 25-1. The Jenny Wiley was her first start of 2024. Her last start of 2023 was a third-place finish in the Matriarch (G1) at 18-1 odds.

5. Ruby Nell. Third in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January, she won last out in the Buena Vista (G2) at Santa Anita.

Next 5: Bellabel, Royal Interest, Chili Flag, McKulick, Alpha Bella

Male sprinters

1. Skelly. Dominated the listed Lake Hamilton on last out for his ninth win in his last 10 starts. He will point to the Saratoga, meet where he will likely make two starts.

2. The Chosen Vron. Won his fourth straight since his Breeders' Cup Sprint loss last fall. His record is remarkable, winning 17 of his 22 career starts. Tops out west in this division, the only question for this guy in 2024 will be whether he can hang with the very best in this division.

3. Gun Pilot. Scored his first stakes win last out in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) defeating a few ranked below. 

4. Post Time. Disappointed in the Westchester (G3) finishing second, and I believe his rider waited too long to make his run. Had won eight of his nine career starts previous to the Westchester.

4. Nakatomi. Third last out in Dubai in the Golden Shaheen (G1), he was third in last fall's Breeders' Cup Sprint. Major player in this division.

5. Sibelius. Didn't run well in his defense of his Golden Shaheen (G1) win last out as he faded to finish 11th. Before that effort he won the Feb. 10 Pelican Stakes at Tampa, defeating Nakatomi.

Next 5: Bo Cruz, Hoist the Gold, Tejano Twist, Super Chow, Big City Lights

Female sprinters

1. Vahva. Got revenge on Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1) where she posted a facile two-length win. Previously she was runner-up to Alva Starr in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in her first start of 2024.

2. Alva Starr. Runner-up to Vahva in the Derby City, she should get another shot at her rival this summer at Saratoga.

3. Flying Connection. Third to the top two in the Derby City, she has won six listed stakes and placed in her last two grade 1 starts.

4. Three Witches. The Breeders' Cup Filly & mare Sprint third place runner from last season started this season off right with a win in the Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita but then disappointed last out in he Derby City, finishing seventh.

5. Society. This gal was fourth in last fall's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and is back on the work tab. She won two stakes last year and should be a major player in this division.

Next 5: Red Carpet Ready, Shidabhuti, Apple Picker, Honor D Lady, Sterling Silver

Lack of stewards inquiry must be addressed

Since the dust settled and the Kentucky Derby was declared official, many voices have risen in concern over the most troubling aspect of the stewards' post-Derby actions, their failure to launch an inquiry. Their reasoning was made public a full two days after the race.

The statement issued by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission stated the following:

“The stewards review every race in Kentucky live and by video replay before  posting it official and they followed the same procedure for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. After conducting their standard review  of the race, determining no further review or investigation was  necessary to conclude there were no incidents that altered the finish of  the race, and seeing there were no objections filed, the stewards posted the Kentucky Derby official.

"After the race, the stewards ordered Tyler Gaffalione, jockey aboard Sierra Leone, to film review on May 9, 2024. The Stewards conduct film reviews routinely to  review the conduct of jockeys during a race. The Stewards, in their discretion, can take disciplinary action against a jockey following the review.”

This statement presents numerous issues when examining the evidence and, in fact, raises more questions than it provides answers.

The facts are that Sierra Leone, known for lugging in during races, consistently exhibited this behavior throughout the stretch drive of the Derby, repeatedly making contact with Forever Young.

As mentioned above, Gaffalione, Sierra Leone's jockey, reached out and struck Forever Young in deep stretch. That is an instant violation and is not debatable.

Because pf Sierra Leone's lugging in and bumping, Forever Young was forced inward from the seven or eight path at the top of the stretch to the three path at the finish line.

Sierra Leone's actions disrupted Forever Young's stride, causing him to lose momentum at least two times with his hind legs because of the bumping.

In addition to all the evidence that even the casual fan could observe, the horses were separated by just a nose at the wire.

If the stewards indeed reviewed the video footage of the stretch drive, as they claim, how could they conclude that "there were no incidents that altered the finish of the race"? It's evident that either they didn't thoroughly examine the footage or chose to disregard it for unknown reasons. If they had conducted a proper review, it would have led to an immediate disqualification of Sierra Leone based on the aforementioned reasons.

As for why the Japanese jockey, Ryusei Sakai, didn't file an objection, a spokesman for trainer Yoshito Yahagi explained, "Claims of foul are rare in Japan. It is ultimately the stewards' decision, not ours." This implies that the Japanese contingent expected the stewards to act competently in such situations. Unfortunately, they were wrong.

Let's consider this. Can you envision the wide-spread outcry if the race favorite, Fierceness, had been the victim of this interference?

Rules were blatantly disregarded in the quintessential race that symbolizes American horse racing, causing the entire U.S. horse racing industry embarrassment.

Kentucky Derby weekend showcased exceptional performances, with all participants returning healthy, which is most important. But downplaying this massive failure by the stewards to adhere to and enforce established rules is neither smart nor truthful.

Regarding the three horses who starred in that epic Kentucky Derby finish, it would be thrilling to see them all again in the same race, but it's unlikely. Forever Young is heading back to Japan and likely will continue racing there. Sierra Leone will skip the Preakness and will be the favorite in the Belmont. I expect Mystik Dan to run in the Preakness, but he faces a tough challenge against Muth, who defeated him by more than six lengths in the Arkansas Derby, Muth's previous race.