Division rankings: Is the Preakness path clear for Mage?

As these division rankings go, this weekend’s Preakness would figure to have a major impact on the 3-year-old male division. But the hard truth is that the results of this weekend’s race will have no impact on Forte’s place at the top of the division.

Kentucky Derby winner Mage most certainly will be favored Saturday at Pimlico where he will face a Preakness field that is, well, questionable at best. And that’s being generous.

Before I dive into the Preakness and my thoughts on the yearly narrative pushed by some in the media to change the spacing of the Triple Crown events, let's take a look at this week's updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Stilleto Boy. This guy did all the running last out in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and fell just short at the wire to lose by two noses to Proxy, a horse he defeated in his previous two starts this season. Given that, he has to be ranked ahead of Proxy. Recency bias doesn't exist in these rankings, so the head-to-head record along with his Grade 1 win matters here.

2. Proxy. Closed well to score his first stakes win of the season and second of his career in the Oaklawn Handicap. But I need to see much more from this guy. The Oaklawn was his first win of the season after an off-the-board finish in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and his runner-up finish to Stilleto Boy in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1).

3. Smile Happy. Super impressive on Kentucky Oaks day, defeating several ranked below when winning the Alysheba (G2). Now 2-for-3 this season, he appears to be a big player in this division, although I have to believe he will be limited to nine furlongs given his pedigree.

4. Art Collector. Ran well in the Alysheba to finish runner-up to Smile Happy. Previously he was runner-up to West Will Power in the New Orleans Classic (G2).

5. West Will Power. Disappointed as the favorite in the Alysheba when finishing third. Previously he was an easy winner over Art Collector in the New Orleans Classic.

Next 5: Cody's Wish, Defunded, Last Samurai, Country Gammer, Taiba.

Older dirt females

1. Clairiere. Ran down Secret Oath last out in the Apple Blossom (G1) to take over divisional leadership for now. Previously she was runner-up to Secret Oath in the Azeri (G2) at Oaklawn. Will run next in the Ogden Phipps (G1) on Belmont Stakes day.

2. Secret Oath. Ran strong again in defeat, this time in the La Troienne (G1) when she was runner-up to Played Hard. She maintains this spot despite her loss.
3. Search Results. Came back well when a close third, beaten two heads in the La Troienne. She is once again a major player in this division.

4. Played Hard. This gal made her seasonal debut in the La Troienne (G1) a winning one. She has now won three graded stakes in her career, off the board only two times in 15 career starts.

5. A Mo Reay. She had a shot to move up here but she didn't get the job done in the La Troienne and finished fourth, beaten two lengths. She didn't run badly, but she didn't run as well as expected. She has won two graded stakes this year, including the Beholder Mile (G1) at Santa Anita. She stays in the top five for now. Next 5: Nest, Pass the Champagne, Fun to Dream, Adare Manor, Frost Point.
3-year-old males

1. Forte. A late scratch prevented him from running in the Kentucky Derby, but given the result, he not only stays up top here, his position was bolstered even more. Remember, he defeated the Kentucky Derby winner Mage in his last two starts.
2. Mage. Certainly was the best horse in the Kentucky Derby, making a strong move to post a facile win and scoring his first graded-stakes victory in only his fourth career start. Still has questions to be answered, and he won't need to repeat that Derby performance to win the Preakness. But like everyone else, I am interested to see how he handles the two-week turnaround this weekend.
3. Angel of Empire. Came with his run in the Kentucky Derby but he fell short and finished third, beaten a little over a length. I still feel like he might end up on top of this division when all is said and done. The Belmont appears to be next.
4. Two Phil's. Really impressed me in the Kentucky Derby as he withstood a fast early pace that he was close to and held his ground in the stretch to finish a very good runner-up. Some could say he ran the best race of any. Will skip the Preakness.
5. Tapit Trice. Surprised at his race in the Kentucky Derby, where he was never really involved and finished seventh, beaten nearly 10 lengths. But make no mistake, this guy will be back for the Belmont and will be one of the favorites in that event.
Next 5: Practical Move, Disarm, First Mission, Arabian Knight, Verifying.

3-year-old females 1. Pretty Mischievous. Impressive in her Kentucky Oaks (G1) win and takes over this top spot. She is now 5-for-7 on her career, never finishing off the board. 2. Faiza. Drops to No. 2 this week despite not running. The reason? The horse who has finished behind her in the runner-up spot her last two starts, And Tell Me Nolies, finished 12th in the Kentucky Oaks, beaten 17 lengths. Faiza will run in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) the day before the Preakness at Pimico.
3. Wet Paint. Finished fourth as the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks, she previously demolished the Fantasy (G3) field at Oaklawn. The Oaks was her first loss on dirt. 4. The Alys Look. Finished third in the Kentucky Oaks, and before that she was third to Southlawn in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). 5. Gambling Girl. Nearly pulled off the Kentucky Oaks upset, losing by a neck. Winless in four starts this season, but she has placed in two graded stakes. Next 5: Southlawn, Defining Purpose, Dorth Vader, Julia Shining, Flying Connection.

Turf males

1. Modern Games. He couldn't make it easy for me? Disappointed as the runner-up last out in the Maker's Mark Mile (G1), but he retains this top spot for now. This guy did win the Eclipse last season and at least has made a start in this country already.

2. Chez Pierre. Surprise winner of the Maker's Mark Mile, he went from 24-1 to 9-1 in the final tote board flash before they left the gate. Not only did he win, he won by a wide margin quite easily. Before the Maker's Mark, he had lost only one race from six starts, so perhaps that one loss in the Tampa Bay Stakes (G3) was an aberration?

3. Casa Creed. Now a 7-year-old, but he is in the best form of his career. He ran lights out when narrowly missing overseas in Saudi Arabia in the Turf Sprint (G3) and finishing second. The Saudi race was his first start this season.

4. Up to the Mark. Turf Classic (G1) win on Kentucky Derby day is certainly enough to move him up to this spot in a division starving for a horse to assert himself as the top.

5. Hong Kong Harry. Rebounded from his poor Kilroe Mile (G1) effort last out to finish a good runner-up in the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs. Was 5-for-6 last season with three graded-stakes wins. A contender in this division.

Next 5: Gold Phoenix, Spooky Channel, Emmanuel, Annapolis, Ottoman Fleet.

Turf females

1. War Like Goddess. Was outstanding in her return to the races last out running away in the Bewitch (G3) at Keeneland. Simply put, she is the best long-distance grass horse based in the U.S. of either gender.

2. In Italian. Facile winner of the Jenny Wiley (G1) a few weeks ago at Keeneland, she moves to this top spot for now. Before that she ran well when runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

3. With the Moonlight. Runner-up to In Italian in the Jenny Wiley, this gal won her other two starts this season in Dubai, both Group 2.

4. Didia. Unbeaten in four starts in this country since coming from Argentina. Won the Modesty (G3) last out.

5. Caravel. A winner of her last four starts, this turf sprinter is headed overseas to run at Royal Ascot.

Next 5: Fluffy Socks, Spendarella, Shantisara, Higher Truth, Queen Goddess.

Male sprinters

1. Elite Power. Certainly showed he is the best in the world now sprinting on the dirt. Overpowered the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3) field. Will come back to the states to run in major races and build a nice Eclipse-worthy resume. Met Mile (G1) could be next

2. Cody's Wish. Made his 2023 debut a winning one in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1). Will head to the Met Mile next on Belmont Day. 

3. Sibelius. Surprise winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), defeating Gunite, among others. Before that this guy won the listed Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Won his first graded stakes in late December at Gulfstream in the Mr. Prospector (G3).

4. Gunite. Disappointed somewhat in last out in the Golden Shaheen when third as the favorite. Before that he was simply the best of the rest when runner-up to Elite Power in Saudi Arabia.

5. Repo Rocks. Was impressive in his last, winning the Westchester (G3) after disappointing as the favorite in the Carter (G1) previously. Won his first three 2023 starts, the Toboggan (G3) and the Stymie, a listed stakes, both at Aqueduct, and the black-type Blitzen at Parx. Likely will go next in the Met Mile.

Next 5: Hoist the Gold, Skelly, Doppelganger, Tejano Twist, Spirit of Makena.

Female sprinters

1. Goodnight Olive.  Maintains the top spot here despite her loss in the Derby City Distaff (G1). The Eclipse winner from last season started her season off with a win in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland a few weeks ago.

2. Matareya. Upset the top one in the Derby City Distaff, and it appears that she and Wicked Halo will make Goodnight Olive work for a repeat Eclipse in this division.

3. Wicked Halo. Runner-up in the Derby City Distaff, this 4-year-old filly ran well in the Breeders' Cup last fall to finish third in the Filly & Mare Sprint. Before that effort she won two Grade 2 events, the Raven Run at Keeneland and the Prioress Stakes at Saratoga. She returned this season in the Matron Stakes at Oaklawn a few weeks ago and defeated Matareya.

4. Frank's Rockette. Won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) at Gulfstream in early March and the the Roxelana Stakes at Churchill in late April.

5. Fun to Dream. Winner of the Santa Monica (G2) earlier this season, her connections tried to stretch out last time in the Beholder Mile (G1), where she finished runner-up.

Next 5: Echo Zulu, Maryquitecontray, Elm Drive, Swayin to and Fro, My Destiny.

Despite lack of challengers, Mage has his work cut out

To fans of the Kentucky Derby winner Mage, the below is no knock on this fantastic son of Good Magic. He deserves all of the accolades sent his way after his Kentucky Derby triumph.

The 2023 Preakness field will have a field of eight horses, and there are some stunning numbers to ponder.

Two graded-stakes wins combined for the entire field in 2023, and only three overall for the field in a combined 54 career starts.

It's not Mage's fault no others from the Kentucky Derby showed up to take him on Baltimore, but the quality of this field has to be noted. The 2023 Preakness, on paper at least, is the weakest renewal we have seen in the Eclipse award era.

Seems like Mage should have this field over a barrel, right? Not so fast.

The Kentucky Derby was only the fourth start in Mage’s career, a career that started less than four months ago. His Derby win produced a career top in terms of speed figures, and now he returns two weeks later. The truth of the matter is he probably can bounce a little off of that Derby effort and still win the Preakness. Still, this lightly raced colt has some work to do on Saturday, and I don’t believe it will be as easy as it appears.

First Mission, ranked No. 8 above, is the likeliest winner other than Mage and is the second choice on the morning line. He won the Lexington (G3) last time out, defeating Disarm who came back to run fourth to Mage in the Kentucky Derby. First Mission has had only three starts, so could we see another colt win a Triple Crown race in just his fourth career start?

It took Perform six races to break his maiden, but his win last out in the Tesio Stakes was impressive, and his connections, who include trainer Shug McGaughey, paid the supplemental fee of $150,000 to get Perform into the Preakness field.

Trainer Bob Baffert is back with National Treasure. This guy has kept good company running in graded stakes his last four starts, but he hasn’t won since his maiden win last year. 

Blazing Sevens ran a distant third in the Blue Grass (G1) last out and did win the Champagne (G1) at age q last year. The Preakness will be his third start at age 3, so perhaps he can improve off of that Blue Grass.

Still, the Preakness is obviously Mage’s race to lose, but he is an underlay given the circumstances.

As for the Preakness field, sometimes big races come up light. It happens ever year. This year we have seen some unusual things take place. Forte’s scratch on Kentucky Derby morning was chief among them. The truth of the matter is that the connections of Forte wanted to run in the Preakness but were prevented from doing so. Forte was placed on a mandatory 14-day veterinary list with his Derby scratch and couldn’t come off of that list until Sunday, the day after the Preakness. His placement on that list precluded him from running.

If Forte had run, I doubt the chirping going on about changing the spacing of the Triple Crown races would be as loud.

The Triple Crown in horse racing is cherished.

The Triple Crown is supposed to be hard to win.

The Triple Crown as it is structured right now is perfect. It should not change. If people don’t like it then don’t watch it or participate.

The Triple Crown will cease to be the Triple Crown if some of the proposed changes I'm reading about ever take place.

Why would it cease to be the Triple Crown that we know of as one of the last holy grails in all of sports? Because if you change the spacing to makes things easier, then more horses will win it, and then the Triple Crown is no longer the elusive and revered thing it is now.

Can you imagine a Triple Crown winner every five years or so? Count me out.

I am on the opposite side. I would love it if we went another 37 years without a Triple Crown winner. That’s the beauty of horse racing’s Triple Crown, it is tremendously difficult to win. That’s the entire point. And when it is won, or a horse is going for the Triple Crown in the Belmont, it is an event that takes top billing in the sports world.

Change the spacing, and it will no longer be revered or cared about.

Some want to change the spacing to spread the races over months. That would relegate big races that stand on their own in the summer, such as the Haskell, Travers etc., as "Kentucky Derby Preps". No thanks.

One last thing, all of these pundits in our industry writing or talking about their proposed suggestions to change the Triple Crown all have to do with moving the Preakness or Belmont. If you are going propose changes and ruin something at least be fair and uproot all three races. Good luck with that.

Perhaps these people who are so interested in proposing Triple Crown changes can turn their attention to much more pressing issues that threaten the very existence of this sport. They can start with the horse deaths at Churchill in the last several weeks, or maybe the many trainers who have had horses fail post-race drug tests, some we don't find out until months later.

On to the Preakness.