Division rankings: Disarm can crash Stephen Foster party

With half the season behind us, the older dirt male division remains a wide-open race for the Eclipse Award. Only one horse, National Treasure, has multiple Grade 1 wins, making him the current leader. But his position is far from secure with numerous Grade 1 events on the horizon this summer and fall.

The Stephen Foster this weekend marks the unofficial start of the season's second half for this division. None of the nine entries have won a Grade 1 event, presenting a prime opportunity for all involved to secure their first.

Although many will focus on the race favorites, First Mission and Skippylongstocking, one horse stands out to me as the clear choice: Disarm.

Before I take a quick look at Disarm and the Stephen Foster, here are my latest division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. National Treasure. Dominant in the Met Mile (G1), he now leads this division. He might return to New York from his California home base for the Whitney (G1) in August at Saratoga. For now, he must be ranked at the top.

2. Señor Buscador. His record this year has been impressive. He started the season with a close second-place finish to National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in January. He followed that with a victory in the Saudi Cup (G1) in February and a third-place finish in the Dubai World Cup (G1) in March. Now, the focus is on preparing for the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar in late August, likely using the San Diego Handicap (G2) in late July as a prep race.

3. First Mission. He began his season with a ninth-place finish in the Pegasus World Cup but has been impressive in his two subsequent starts, winning the Essex (G3) at Oaklawn and the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs. This weekend, he will face several ranked below him here in the Stephen Foster (G1).

4. Skippylongstocking. The Oaklawn Handicap (G2) winner has scored wins in his last two starts, but, like First Mission above, I'm not very confident he'll rank among the best in this division by season's end. He also will compete in the Stephen Foster, where he'll aim to win his first Grade 1 event.

5. Mr Fisk. The winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) and the Californian (G3), he has run well out west. Two decades ago, these victories would have made him a strong contender for the Eclipse Award, but today, these races hold less significance. Unfortunately, he sustained an injury during his Gold Cup win and is unlikely to race again. Despite this setback, he deserves recognition and remains in the top five for now.

Next 5: Kingsbarns, Saudi Crown, Disarm, Newgate, Next

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Despite falling short in the Ogden Phipps (G1) during Belmont Stakes weekend, she was arguably the best horse in the race given her trip. This setback hasn't diminished her standing at the top, with a significant gap between her and the others. Her schedule for the remainder of the season is set. She will compete next in the Molly Pitcher (G3) at Monmouth on July 20, followed by the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga on Aug. 23, a race she won last year. Idiomatic will conclude her season with the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland and the Breeders' Cup Distaff at Del Mar, both of which she also won last year.

2. Randomized. She delivered a stellar performance in the Phipps, upsetting Idiomatic. Last fall, she nearly pulled off an upset against the same rival in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. Her season record stands at 1-for-2.

3. Adare Manor. Another start, another win for this mare. Most recently, she triumphed in the Santa Margarita (G2) at Santa Anita. Before that, she made an appearance outside her home state of California, winning impressively by more than five lengths in the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn. She now boasts a record of 2-for-3 this season.

4. Sweet Azteca. Won her first graded stakes last out in the Beholder Mile (G1). She is 3-for-4 in her short career.

5. Pretty Mischievous. The 3-year-old filly Eclipse Award winner in 2023 returned to the track in May for the La Troienne (G1), finishing third, five lengths behind Idiomatic. In her latest outing, she once more finished third, this time trailing Randomized and Idiomatic in the Phipps.

Next 5: Scylla, Free like a Bird, Coffee in Bed, Desert Dawn, Bellamore

3-year-old males

1. Mystik Dan. He faltered in the Belmont, but he remains at the top because of his achievements in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. He also earns credit in my view for consistently showing up and competing, a quality few of the contenders below him can claim.

2. Sierra Leone. He again ran a stellar race and again failed to run straight in the stretch when finishing third in the Belmont. Would be favored in a race against any horse in his division.

3. Forever Young. With one start in this country, this guy is ranked here even though he was likely the best horse who ran in the Kentucky Derby. Now 5-for-6 on his career, he globetrotted his way to Kentucky with wins this year in two countries already. Although it seems unlikely we'll see him in the U.S. again soon, the Breeders' Cup remains a possibility.

4. Seize the Grey. After an easy victory in the Preakness, he faded to a seventh-place finish in the Belmont. It's likely a break is needed after already competing six times this season. The Travers (G1) is the next target.

5. Muth. Dominated the Arkansas Derby (G1) last out and is now 2-for-2 on the season as he impressed to win going away in the San Vicente (G2) in January. Scratched from the Preakness because of a fever and will continue to drop if he doesn't run soon.
Next 5: Dornoch, Batten Down, Catching Freedom, Mindframe, Fierceness

3-year-old females

1. Thorpedo Anna. She dominated once more, this time in the Acorn (G1). Before that, she showcased her talent in a competitive Kentucky Oaks (G1). Now 5-for-6 in her career, her next target could be the CCA Oaks (G1) in July.

2. Leslie's Rose. The Ashland (G1) winner rebounded from her off-the-board Kentucky Oaks run to finish a distant second in the Acorn.

3. Tarifa. Up the track in the Kentucky Oaks, but perhaps she disliked the off track. Still, with two graded-stakes wins this season, Tarifa stays in the top five here.

4. Sugar Fish. Has come out of nowhere and dominated the Summertime Oaks (G2) to win by over nine lengths. This gal was coming off an optional claimer win and before that broke her maiden in an optional claimer.

5. Nothing Like You. Finished a distant second to Sugar Fish last out in the Summertime Oaks at Santa Anita. This came after dominating the Santa Anita Oaks (G2), winning by more than seven lengths.

Next 5: Kinza, Power Squeeze, Regulatory Risk, Just F Y I, Ways and Means

Turf males

1. Master of The Seas. He won the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) impressively in his last outing, adding to his tally of three Grade 1 victories in his last four starts in North America. But his absence until August means he will drop from his current position. Although he currently holds the top spot, I'm disappointed that his connections have decided to rest him for four months, with his next start scheduled for the Fourstardave (G1) on Aug. 10.

2. Cogburn. He's undefeated this season with a 2-for-2 record. In his last start, he scored a win in the Jaipur (G1), setting a record time, albeit on an exceptionally fast surface. Not since Stormy Liberal a few years ago has a turf sprinter held such a high ranking. It's worth noting that a turf sprinter can contend for an Eclipse Award in this division, as demonstrated by Stormy Liberal in 2018. Cogburn is firmly in the mix for this year's Eclipse honors.

3. Measured Time. Dominated the Manhattan (G1) in his first start in this country. It was the first Grade 1 win for this son of Frankel.

4. Program Trading. Disappointed in the Manhattan when off the board after making his seasonal debut a winning one in the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby weekend.

5. Naval Power. This guy is 6-for-9 in his career, and this year he just missed when runner-up in two Grade 1 events stateside, the last being the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs. Won a Group 2 event in Dubai earlier this season.

Next 5: Johannes, Du Jour, Silver Knott, Nation's Pride, Gold Phoenix

Turf females

1. Didia. She impressed me with a commanding win over a strong field in the New York Stakes (G1) in her latest outing. Her season began with a win in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January, followed by a third-place finish in the Jenny Wiley (G1) in April.

2. Chili Flag. Has won all three of her starts since her loss to Didia in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf. She was sensational in the Just a Game (G1) on Belmont Stakes weekend.

3. Anisette. She was exceptional in her 2024 debut, winning the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita on Memorial Day. Since arriving in the country last season, she is 5-for-7, including four graded-stakes victories. Regarded as likely the best in the west, she poses a significant threat to ascend to the top of her division later this season.

4. Neecie Marie. Defeated Whitebeam in the Beaugay (G2) earlier this season and then took on the best in the division and ran well when runner-up to Didia in the New York Stakes.

5. Whitebeam. Runner-up in both of her starts this season, she ran well in the Just a Game losing to Chili Flag.

Next 5: War Like Goddess, English Rose, Beautee Cachee, McKulick, Surge Capacity

Male sprinters

1. Skelly. Was stunned last time out in the Aristides at Churchill Downs when runner-up losing by a length to Closethegame Sugar. Previously he dominated the listed Lake Hamilton. Has won nine of his last 11 starts.

2. The Chosen Vron. He scored another win, this time in the Thor's Echo Stakes at Santa Anita. This marks his fifth consecutive win since his loss in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall. With an impressive record of 18 wins from 23 career starts, he currently leads the way in the west within his division. The main question for him in 2024 will be whether he can compete with the elite in this division. Although he may need to show more speed, he is currently enjoying a successful streak in California.

3. Post Time. Ran a distant second to National Treasure in the Met Mile. Still deserves this top-five ranking here based on his sprint wins.

4. Gun Pilot. Failed as the favorite in the True North (G2) on Belmont Stakes weekend, finishing third. But previously scored his first stakes win in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), defeating a few ranked below.

5. Baby Yoda. This 6-year-old veteran scored a six-length win in the True North (G2) last time out. This was his first graded-stakes win in his 25-start career.

Next 5: Nakatomi, Happy Jack, Super Chow, Hoist the Gold, Closethegame Sugar

Female sprinters

1. Vahva. Returned last week to score an impressive win in the Chicago (G3) at Churchill Downs, running down Society in the stretch. Before this latest win she got revenge on Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1) in early May where she posted a facile two-length win after finishing runner-up to that rival in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in April. Will point to the Ballerina (G1) in late August at Saratoga for he next start.

2. Alva Starr. Runner-up to Vahva in the Derby City, she should get another shot at her rival this summer at Saratoga. Easy winner of the black-type Rehoboth Beach at Delaware Park last time out.

3. Three Witches. The third-place finisher in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last season began this year strongly with a victory in the Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita. But she faltered in her most recent outing, finishing seventh in the Derby City Distaff. She is expected to run next in the Great Lady M (G2) at Los Alamitos on July 6.

4. Society. Made her first start of 2024 last week in the Chicago (G3) and ran well but faded to third. This gal was fourth in last fall's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and likely needed the race. She should improve next time out. The Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga is the long-term goal with a possible race prior.

5. Accede. Winner of the Bed O' Roses (G2) last out, this daughter of Into Mischief is 2-for-2 this season.

Next 5: Flying Connection, Red Carpet Ready, Clearly Unhinged, Honor D Lady, Shidabhuti

Disarm, Kingsbarns offer value in the Stephen Foster

When last seen in a stakes race, Disarm finished runner-up to Arcangelo in last summer's Travers Stakes (G1). Among those trailing him that day were Kentucky Derby winner Mage and Preakness winner National Treasure. After the Travers, Disarm emerged as one of the hot horses within the division, with high expectations for his future. But the Travers ended up being his final race of 2023, as he was sidelined a week later because of bone bruising, according to his connections.

Fast forward to five weeks ago, and Disarm resurfaced in an optional-claiming race at Churchill Downs. Under a confident ride, he secured a workmanlike win over three outmatched opponents, though his speed figure was somewhat uninspiring given his history. Nonetheless, Disarm was back on track, and bigger things are certainly on the horizon for this son of Gun Runner.

This year's Stephen Foster promises to be an interesting race. First Mission and Skippylongstocking, the two race favorites, both competed in the Pegasus World Cup earlier this year, finishing well behind National Treasure and Señor Buscador, the 1-2 finishers. Although both have had successes since the Pegasus, I have a lingering doubt that they will contend for the Eclipse later this summer and fall. They are undoubtedly talented horses, but I'm not convinced they will be among the top contenders in this division a few months from now.

Disarm, on the other hand, ran against the best in his division last year and performed admirably. In addition to his Travers runner-up finish, he was second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Looking at this weekend's Stephen Foster, Disarm stands out to me as the horse to beat. Will he really go off at the 6-1 morning line? Not a chance. He still will likely be an overlay, while First Mission will most certainly be an underlay in this nine-horse field.

Besides Disarm, another horse I rate highly is Kingsbarns, who also is 6-1 on the morning line. Kingsbarns won the Louisiana Derby (G2) last year before finishing 14th in the Kentucky Derby. After just one more race in 2023, Kingsbarns has returned this year with two wins from three starts, including the Ben Ali (G3) in April. He stretched out to 9 1/2 furlongs in his last race and came up short when runner-up in the Pimlico Special (G3), but he remains a strong contender.

If Disarm scores a win this weekend, he will catapult into the top three of the older dirt male division, with the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga likely as his next start.

The Stephen Foster this weekend has the potential to dramatically reshape the landscape of this division.