Division rankings: Strong Preakness delivers intrigue

The Preakness holds a special place in my heart among the Triple Crown races for quite a few reasons. What I particularly love about it is the swift two-week interval after the Kentucky Derby. It reminds of the time when such short breaks between races were the norm.

The Preakness has witnessed some of the most thrilling moments in Triple Crown history. In recent history, legends such as Silver Charm, Curlin, Rachel Alexandra, I’ll Have Another and Swiss Skydiver, have triumphed in unforgettable battles. Among the countless memorable moments, the 1989 Preakness stands out with its legendary showdown between Sunday Silence and Easy Goer, a race replayed time and again in Triple Crown lore.

This year's Preakness lineup remains intriguing, despite the unfortunate scratch of the favored Muth. Contrary to what some might assume, the field isn't lacking in strength. In fact, it boasts a level of competitiveness that surpasses several recent editions and could go a long way in determining the Eclipse winner of this division if Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan comes away victorious once again.

Before I take a quick glance at this year's Preakness Stakes, let's take a look at this week's updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Señor Buscador. Despite finishing third in the Dubai World Cup (G1) in his most recent outing, Señor Buscador retains his no. 1 spot. His record this year thus far as been good, winning the Saudi Cup (G1) before his Dubai appearance. He kicked off the season with a close second-place finish to National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in January. The focus now will be on preparing for the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar in late August, potentially making a start in the San Diego Handicap (G2) in late July as a prep.

2. National Treasure. He finished fourth in the Saudi Cup, but he put in a commendable performance and fell short by just under two lengths. Holding steady at the no. 2 spot, the winner of the Pegasus World Cup once again has demonstrated his maturity in his recent races. Back in the U.S, look for him to return in the summer months.

3. First Mission. Started his season with a ninth-place finish in the Pegasus World Cup but has been impressive in two starts since, winning both the Essex (G3) at Oaklawn and the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs.

4. White Abarrio. No excuses when off the board in the Saudi Cup, and one has to wonder whether running overseas with his trainer under a microscope had anything to do with it. The Breeders' Cup Classic winner from last season will run the rest of the year in the U.S., where he will try to get back to the dramatic form reversal we witnessed over his three starts before the Saudi Cup. His connections have outlined plans for three more races this season. The next target is the Met Mile (G1), followed by appearances in the Whitney (G1) and the Breeders' Cup Classic.

5. Saudi Crown. Struggling to find his stride in the Godolphin Mile (G2), he finished a disappointing 12th. The inability to secure an early lead seemed to be his downfall. Before the setback in Dubai, he came close to victory in the Saudi Cup, fading in the late stages to secure a respectable third place, falling short by 3/4 of a length. Looking ahead, the Met Mile in June is being considered for his next race.

Next 5: Skippylongstocking, Newgate, Kingsbarns, Next, Red Route One

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Looked better than ever in her return, winning the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs by a little over three lengths. She has won nine of her last 10 starts.

2. Sweet Azteca. Won her first graded stakes last out in the Beholder Mile (G1). She is 3-for-4 in her short career. 

3. Adare Manor. Made a rare appearance outside of her home state of California and won the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn impressively by more than five lengths. She appears to have moved forward off of a runner-up effort to Sweet Azteca in the Beholder Mile (G1) in her prior race. She is indeed a major player in this division and is actually running in races while other expected contenders continue to sit on the bench.

4. Pretty Mischievous. The 3-year-old female Eclipse winner from 2023, this gal also returned in the La Troienne and ran a decent third, five lengths back of idiomatic.

5. Randomized. Was upset her in 2024 debut, finishing runner-up in the Ruffian (G2) at Aqueduct. Last fall she was runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Distaff as a 3-year-old.

Next 5: Free like a Bird, Coffee in Bed, Desert Dawn, Bellamore, Super Shine

3-year-old males

1. Sierra Leone. Might not be a popular choice here, but this guy did nothing in Kentucky Derby defeat to warrant moving him down from this spot. He and Forever Young were likely the best horses in the Derby won by Mystik Dan, but he came up a nose short. Will skip the Preakness and point for the Belmont over 10 furlongs at Saratoga.

2. Mystik Dan. Jockey Brian Hernandez rode a great race to guide this son of Goldencents to Kentucky Derby glory. For Mystik Dan, this was his first stakes win over a fast track. Pursues the second leg of the Triple Crown on Saturday
3. Forever Young. With one start in this country, this guy is even though he was likely the best horse who ran in the Kentucky Derby. Now 5-for-6 on his career, he globetrotted his way to Kentucky with wins this year in two countries already. I think it is a long shot we see him stateside again, but the Breeders' Cup is still a small possibility.

4. Muth. Dominated the Arkansas Derby (G1) last out and is now 2-for-2 on the season as he impressed to win going away in the San Vicente (G2) in January. Last season at age 2 he was second best in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and won the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita. Scratched from the Preakness because of a fever.
5. Catching Freedom. Ran very well to be fourth in Louisville, affirming his status in the top tier of this division. Previously he closed well to take the Louisiana Derby (G2). Will be among the favorites in the Preakness.

Next 10: Fierceness, Honor Marie, Just a Touch, Endlessly, Domestic Product, Resilience, Stronghold, Imagination, Tuscan Gold, Just Steel

3-year-old females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Dominated a deep Kentucky Oaks (G1) and proved she is the real deal. Now 4-for-5 on her career, she may take on the boys in her next start.

2. Just F Y I. Ran well to be runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks after only one race in 2024. She has shown she matured from age 2 and is a real contender in this division moving forward.
3. Tarifa. Up the track in the Kentucky Oaks, but perhaps she disliked the off track. Still, with two graded-stakes wins this season, Tarifa stays in the top five here.

4. Nothing Like You. Dominated the Santa Anita Oaks (G2), winning by more than seven lengths and leaving Kinza in her wake. Was that an aberration? Possibly. Still, a nice effort.

5. Kinza. No excuses when runner-up to Nothing Like you last out in the Santa Anita Oaks. In her prior three starts she was dominant, posting two graded-stakes wins this season.

Next 5: Regulatory Risk, Leslie's Rose, Power Squeeze, Tamara, Jody's Pride

Turf males

1. Master of The Seas. We finally have a solid leader of this division after he won the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) last out in dominating fashion. He now has three Grade 1 scores from his last four starts in North America. But the problem is he won't run again until August, so he will fall from this spot. For now, he is up top, but I'm disappointed the connections will bench him for four months and wait untill the Aug. 10 Fourstardave (G1) for his next start.

2. Program Trading. Returned in the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs on Derby weekend and won by a head over Naval Power. Last year he won the Hollywood Derby (G1) in his last start in December. Could be the best in this division.

3. Naval Power. This guy is 6-for-9 in his career, and this year he has just missed when runner-up in two Grade 1 events stateside, the last being the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs. Won a Group 2 event in Dubai earlier this season.

4. Du Jour. Overpowered the Kilroe Mile field last out for his first Grade 1 win. Before that he was off the board in the Breeder's Cup Mile and won one graded stakes in 2023.

5. I'm Very Busy. Disappointed in the Turf Classic at Churchill finishing seventh, beaten by a little over six lengths. Before that effort he won the Muniz (G2) at Fair Grounds. In his other start this season he was runner-up in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1).

Next 5: Missed the Cut, Easter, Johannes, Gold Phoenix, Silver Knott

Turf females

1. English Rose. It's early in this division with no clear standout, and this gal resides on top for now after her runner-up in the Jenny Wiley (G1), where she finished ahead of several ranked below. She has run two other times this season, both overseas, wining a Group 2 stakes and finishing runner-up in another. The Just a Game (G1) on Belmont Day is next.

2. Didia. The winner of the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January, she won two graded stakes last season and was 10th in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She finished third in the Jenny Wiley.

3. Gina Romantica. Sort of a disappointment in the Jenny Wiley, she finished seventh, beaten by more than seven lengths in her first start of 2024. Last season she made only four starts but scored a big win in the First Lady (G1) and then finished a very good fourth in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

4. Beaute Cachee. In the best form of her career now at age 5, this Chad Brown-trained daughter of Literato scored her first Grade 1 win in the Jenny Wiley at odds of 25-1. The Jenny Wiley was her first start of 2024. Her last start of 2023 was a third-place finish in the Matriarch (G1) at 18-1 odds.

5. Ruby Nell. Third in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January, she won last out in the Buena Vista (G2) at Santa Anita.

Next 5: Chili Flag, McKulick, Neecie Marie, Whitebeam, Surge Capacity

Male sprinters

1. Skelly. Dominated the listed Lake Hamilton on last out for his ninth win in his last 10 starts. He will point to the Saratoga, meet where he likely will make two starts.

2. The Chosen Vron. Won his fourth straight since his Breeders' Cup Sprint loss last fall. His record is remarkable, winning 17 of his 22 career starts. Tops out west in this division, the only question for this guy in 2024 will be whether he can hang with the very best in this division.

3. Gun Pilot. Scored his first stakes win last out in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), defeating a few ranked below.

4. Post Time. Disappointed in the Westchester (G3) finishing second, and I believe his rider waited too long to make his run. Had won eight of his nine career starts before the Westchester.

4. Nakatomi. Third last out in Dubai in the Golden Shaheen (G1), he was third in last fall's Breeders' Cup Sprint. Major player in this division.

5. Sibelius. Didn't run well in his defense of his Golden Shaheen (G1) win last out as he faded to finish 11th. Before that effort he won the Feb. 10 Pelican Stakes at Tampa, defeating Nakatomi.

Next 5: Bo Cruz, Hoist the Gold, Tejano Twist, Super Chow, Big City Lights

Female sprinters

1. Vahva. Got revenge on Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1), where she posted a facile two-length win. Previously she was runner-up to Alva Starr in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in her first start of 2024.

2. Alva Starr. Runner-up to Vahva in the Derby City, she should get another shot at her rival this summer at Saratoga.

3. Flying Connection. Third to the top two in the Derby City, she has won six listed stakes and placed in her last two grade 1 starts.

4. Three Witches. The Breeders' Cup Filly & mare Sprint third-place runner from last season started this season off right with a win in the Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita but then disappointed last out in he Derby City, finishing seventh.

5. Society. This gal was fourth in last fall's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and is back on the work tab. She won two stakes last year and should be a major player in this division.

Next 5: Red Carpet Ready, Shidabhuti, Apple Picker, Honor D Lady, Sterling Silver

Derby alumni vs. new shooters

With an 60 percent chance of rain Saturday in Baltimore, this year’s Preakness could be run on an off track. So, with that information, I will assume we have an off track. Obviously, this moves up Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, who ran his fastest race, speed figure-wise, over an off track three starts back in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn.

In fact, all of the other horses entered with off-track experience, Uncle Heavy, Catching Freedom, Seize the Grey and Just Steel, have run well over it. But a couple who will be short prices, Imagination and Tuscan Gold, have no experience over the off going.

There really is no reliable way to determine how a horse will take to an off track. While some may turn to the Tomlinson rating, intended to provide insight into a horse's potential performance on a wet track based on pedigree and other factors, it's not foolproof. For instance, Mystik Dan, who we know loves an off track, holds the lowest Tomlinson rating in the field.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Imagination emerges as the primary frontrunner in this race with the scratch of Muth. It wouldn't be surprising to see a repeat of his stablemate National Treasure's victory from last year, controlling the race with a wire-to-wire win. An off track could play into Imagination's strengths, as his speed becomes a potent weapon on such surfaces. Additionally, his pedigree suggests a predisposition to excel in these conditions, furthering his chances.

Tuscan Gold is an intriguing horse. If I knew the track was going to be fast, this guy likely would be my pick to win. But the off track introduces a level of uncertainty. Nonetheless, based on his recent performances, he appears to be a strong contender.

His last-out third-place finish to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby, where he was beaten by less than two lengths, was very good for only his third career start. Rested since then, he enters the Preakness with a profile reminiscent of the last three winners: Rombauer, Early Voting  and National Treasure. Notably, all three skipped the Kentucky Derby after falling short in their final prep races. Despite being worthy contenders for the Derby, they opted out for various reasons yet still found the winners circle in the Preakness.

Mystik Dan, as mentioned above, loves an off track and he obviously loves a dry track as well. Can he win again on Saturday? Most certainly. Will I pick him to win this? No.

No disrespect to this guy. He ran a great race in Louisville with extreme racing luck on his side, but he will have to beat me this weekend. I look for Mystik Dan to run the type of race Mage ran last year, good enough for third. If Mystik Dan wins, I will be one of the first to congratulate him and of course he will be elevated to the No. 1 spot in these rankings next week and have a stranglehold on the Eclipse as the winner of two Triple Crown events.

Catching Freedom certainly deserves recognition. The son of Constitution consistently delivers solid performances in each outing. Despite finishing a respectable fourth in the Kentucky Derby, he was narrowly defeated by less than two lengths. So why isn't he receiving more attention here?

With a penchant for excelling on off tracks and a prior victory at the 1 3/16-mile distance, he undoubtedly possesses the credentials to win. But there's a question of whether he has reached his peak. It's possible. Tuscan Gold, with far less experience, was behind him by only two lengths in the Louisiana Derby in his third career start. So this is a tough call. I’ll use him underneath.

It's funny, the trend was always that the Kentucky Derby horses wheeling back in the Preakness had the edge over the fresh contenders in the Preakness. But in recent years, that trend has shifted. 

So here I am picking two horses who skipped the Kentucky Derby, Tuscan Gold and Imagination, to contend for the win on Saturday.

Deep down, I would love to see a horse coming out of the Kentucky Derby emerge victorious. In fact, I'd love to see all three Derby alumni, Mystik Dan, Catching Freedom Just Steel, claim the top three spots, reinforcing my belief that the traditional two-week break between races isn't the disadvantage that it's often perceived to be.

But logic leads me to side with Tuscan Gold, as I see ample potential for him and with just a slight step forward, he is best here. Alongside Tuscan Gold, Imagination's speed combined with the track condition could significantly boost his prospects.

I'll include Mystik Dan, Catching Freedom and Just Steel underneath. But my heart is cheering for this trio of Kentucky Derby horses.

Finally, my deepest wish for this weekend is the safe return of all equine athletes running. These are the stars of our sport.