Division rankings: Hit Show deserves spotlight in the Clark

This week I’m stepping away from the Eclipse Award debates. In the last two weeks, I’ve broken down the female and male sprint divisions, and next week I’ll turn to the embattled 2-year-old filly division, where, frankly, there still isn’t a clear or compelling option for year-end honors.

For now, the spotlight shifts to Friday’s Grade 2 Clark at Churchill Downs, where another intriguing matchup awaits with a group of second-tier 3-year-old males once again taking on a similarly second-tier set of older runners. Make no mistake, Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Hit Show is the headliner, but several other familiar names will make him earn it.

Before diving deeper into the Clark, and why I believe Hit Show may be stepping into the same “quietly underappreciated” role once held by Sierra Leone, here’s where the 3-year-old male rankings stand heading into the weekend. The top three remain locked in, but a win by Magnitude or Gosger would push either into the top five. As for the older males, the top tier is set in stone, though a Clark victory by Hit Show would elevate him to sixth.

3-year-old males

1. Sovereignty. He demolished an outclassed field in the Travers (G1), further padding a résumé that now ranks him among the most accomplished Kentucky Derby winners since American Pharoah. Even after skipping the Classic, his body of work will draw heavy horse-of-the-year support. And if I were betting on it, I’d say the Travers was his curtain call, with his next stop the breeding shed.

2. Journalism. He ran a career best in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, finishing fourth and less than four lengths off the winner. Before that, he was runner-up to Fierceness in the Pacific Classic (G1). It’s been a strong campaign for this 3-year-old, and it appears he will return next year at age 4 with the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) his first major goal.

3. Baeza. As expected, he went off an underlay in the Breeders’ Cup, made a move around the far turn but couldn’t stay with the top-tier runners once the real running began. These waters were simply deeper than he’s used to. Still, he proved clearly the third best in this division, and the encouraging news is that a return next season is in the cards. The Pegasus could be next in January.

4. Nevada Beach. Sure, he won the Native Diver (G3), but he didn't exactly run like a 1-9 shot should have as he outlasted long shot British Isles by a half-length. Earlier this season he beat older when capturing the Goodwood (G1) impressively over last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner, Full Serrano. 

4. Disco Time. This guy resided in this spot very early in the season after his Lecomte (G3) win, but then he went on the shelf for several months. He returned with a nice win in the St. Louis Stakes and then last time out he dominated the Dwyer, winning by nearly 10 and in the process posting speed figures that rival the best in this division. His stock is on the rise, and he could be a serious player in the Saudi Cup (G1) in February. Unbeaten in five career starts.

Next 5: Magnitude, Gosger, Burnham Square, Citizen Bull, Rated By Merit.

Older dirt males

1. Forever Young. I think many racing fans don't truly appreciate how exceptional this horse is. Since bursting onto the international scene in February 2024 with his Saudi Derby (G3) win over Book’em Danno and Bentornato, he hasn’t raced in the same country in consecutive races. That is a remarkable stat. He has traveled the globe like no dirt horse before him and handled every challenge. His Breeders’ Cup Classic victory against the best the U.S. had to offer was nothing short of brilliant and likely secured him the Eclipse in this division. The best part? Unlike his U.S. counterparts, he won’t be off to the breeding shed and will return to race next season at age 5.

2. Sierra Leone. He might have turned in the best performance of his career in defeat, narrowly denied a repeat victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Still, he’ll go down as one of the most underappreciated runners in recent memory, ultra-consistent, never off the board in 14 starts and always delivering that dependable late kick. Now off to the breeding shed, he’ll be sorely missed on the racetrack. Will get support for the Eclipse in this division.

3. Fierceness. This guy will be missed too, no doubt about it. A Grade 1 winner in every season he raced, he went out swinging with one of his finest performances, finishing third in a Breeders’ Cup Classic for the ages. Alongside his old sparring partners Sierra Leone and Forever Young, he reminded everyone that last year’s so-called “weaker” crop turned out to be anything but.

4. Mindframe. His off-the-board finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic surprised no regular readers of this column. Still, he put together a respectable career, capturing two Grade 1 wins from nine starts. Ultimately, though, he was a one-paced sort, a solid runner but a clear notch below the sport’s elite.

5. Nysos. He ground out a win in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile as the heavy favorite, though it wasn’t quite the statement performance many expected against that field. Still, talk of his possible return next year is welcome news for an older dirt male division that looks a bit thin heading into 2026.

Next five: Antiquarian, Hit Show, White Abarrio, Phileas Fogg, Touchuponastar.

Thus far in 2025, the sophomore class hasn’t measured up. Time and again they’ve been handled by the older horses in several high-profile races. The Dubai World Cup winner from earlier this year, Hit Show, returns on Friday off his sharp Fayette (G3) victory in September, where he defeated Rattle N Roll and Gosger, both of whom return to take another shot this weekend. Add in the familiar 3-year-olds Magnitude and Chunk of Gold plus the older First Mission, and suddenly this year’s Clark Stakes shapes up as a compelling renewal.

Regular readers know my longstanding appreciation for Hit Show, and a big part of that comes from the simple fact that he stayed in training beyond his sophomore season and actually kept running. As a 3-year-old, he finished second in the Wood Memorial (G2) before a credible fifth in the Kentucky Derby. After off-the-board finishes in the Belmont, Jim Dandy (G2) and Oklahoma Derby (G3), he was given a break. He returned in 2024 and immediately caught fire, winning four of his first five starts and rattling off three graded-stakes victories before crossing the line third in last year’s Clark.

Retirement was postponed once again, and bringing him back for 2025 has proven to be a highly profitable decision. This has been the best season of Hit Show’s career, with four wins from seven starts, highlighted, of course, by his Dubai World Cup triumph over Forever Young, the defining race on his résumé. He’s added two more wins from four starts since returning from overseas, including a strong score in the Fayette.

Remember when an overseas trip used to spell doom for U.S.-based horses once they returned home? Those days appear over. Hit Show ran one of the best races of his season in the Fayette, proof that the travel hasn’t dulled him one bit.

In Friday’s Clark, Hit Show meets essentially the same caliber of competition he faced in the Fayette. Yes, Magnitude and Chunk of Gold join the cast, but are either of those 3-year-olds better than Bracket Buster or Gosger, the pair Hit Show dispatched with ease last out? No, they are not. Magnitude, for instance, finished behind Bracket Buster two starts ago before his runner-up effort to Baeza in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). Chunk of Gold is a nice horse, but at no point this season has he signaled that he’s a better 3-year-old male than Gosger or even Magnitude.

Rattle N Roll returns as he attempts to win the Clark for the second consecutive year. His career arc mirrors Hit Show’s in many ways. He captured the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) as a 2-year-old in 2021 and has continued to compete in, and win, graded stakes every season since. Now 6, he has finished off the board in three of his last four starts, but his runner-up effort behind Hit Show in the Fayette was easily his best performance of 2025. That effort sets him up well for this year’s Clark.

Is this version of Rattle N Roll as good as the one we saw a year ago? I don’t believe so. Still, if he reproduces his Fayette performance, he’s unlikely to finish worse than second.

Before the Fayette, I wrote that Hit Show and Rattle N Roll, not the 3-year-olds, were the horses to beat. I felt confident in that call. This time, however, we’re at the point in the season when the 3-year-olds can take that next step forward and start to level up.

Magnitude hinted at that possibility last out, showing a new dimension by closing strongly for second in the Pennsylvania Derby. If he moves forward off that effort, he becomes a legitimate threat. I also respect Gosger. He has been a major player in several key 3-year-old races and ran very well to finish third behind Hit Show in the Fayette. But for now, I believe that might be his ceiling.

For me, the race still goes through Hit Show. But unlike last time, I fully expect the 3-year-olds to show up and make both Hit Show and Rattle N Roll work for it.

And lastly, to my U.S.-based readers, wishing all of you a very Happy Thanksgiving

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Not surprisingly to regular readers of these rankings, she finished off the board in the Spinster (G1). Simply put, she didn't move forward from last season and never was head and shoulders above the fillies ranked below her. Still, she deserves credit for gutting out wins, even if the competition was subpar. She ran all season and won races while others sat out for months or never ventured beyond their home state. In these rankings, the entire season matters. She will get my Eclipse vote.

2. Cavalieri. She missed the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, but Cavalieri's effort in the Zenyatta (G2) was impressive, especially given the disastrous break and a six-month layoff.

3. Scylla. The Breeders' Cup Distaff heroine quietly put together a solid season, placing in four graded stakes before her Distaff win. Overall on her career she has missed the board only two times in 16 starts, running well sprinting and around two turns.

4. Dorth Vader. Didn't run poorly in the Distaff, finishing fifth, beaten less than three lengths for the place. Before the Distaff she just missed another Grade 1 in the Personal Ensign, beaten on the bob by Thorpedo Anna. Her only win this season came in June’s Ogden Phipps (G1) at Saratoga. 

5. Seismic Beauty. Ran a dismal race as the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Distaff as she was eased past the wire and finished second to last. Before the Distaff she scored a nice win in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1) going gate to wire.

Next five: Regaled, Gin Gin, Leslie’s Rose, Gun Song, Royal Spa.

3-year-old fillies

1. Nitrogen. She ran better than expected, finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, a performance likely good enough to lock up the Eclipse in what was an otherwise uninspiring division this year. Before that, she turned in a solid runner-up effort in the Spinster behind Gin Gin.

2. Clicquot. Her fourth in the Breeders' Cup Distaff wasn't bad as she made a late-season push to probably be second best in this division. She was a surprise winner of the Cotillion (G1) before the Breeders' Cup and had strung together four straight wins, including the Indiana Oaks (G3).

3. Good Cheer. Clearly not the same filly who won the Kentucky Oaks (G1), she was off the board in the Cotillion, beaten by more than six lengths. Her races earlier this year matter, so she stays in the top five here.

4. La Cara. Tied for the most top-level scores in this division, the problem is she has been off the board in three other Grade 1 races, including her last two.

5. Laurelin. She again was runner-up, this time in the Jockey Club Oaks (G3) to Fionn. Prior to that she was runner-up in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1). The Saratoga Oaks (G2) winner has had a solid season.

Next five: Fionn, Scottish Lassie, Quietside, Margie’s Intention, Shred the Gnar.

Turf males

1. Rebel’s Romance. I’m keeping this guy on top, even after his runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, a performance that was downright remarkable given the circumstances. Big horses such as him aren't supposed to be able to thread through traffic on a tight course like that, yet he did, bursting between rivals in the stretch and finishing with authority. He gets the edge over Notable Speech thanks to a stronger overall résumé and a far tougher campaign with four graded-stakes wins, including two Grade 1s, and placings in two more top-level events. The very definition of a globetrotting superstar.

2. Notable Speech. He was sensational in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, notching back-to-back top-level wins in North America. But let’s not forget that two months ago, he was winless in four starts on the year and off the board in three of them. When it comes to Eclipse voting, the full body of work matters, not just the the last two months.

3. Formidable Man. Ran a career-best race in the Breeders' Cup Mile when runner-up, silencing critics who felt he was outclassed by this field and had been beating up on weak competition in California. For the season he has won three graded stakes, including the Kilroe Mile (G1). 

4. El Cordobes. He ran a solid race to finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, just two lengths off the winner. The Sword Dancer (G1) champ showed up again, much like he did in his prior start when finishing third behind Rebel’s Romance in the Joe Hirsch (G1).

5. Deterministic. He has strung together three straight graded-stakes victories, including back-to-back Grade 1s. Most recently, he dominated the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga after capturing the shortened, 1 1/8-mile Manhattan (G1) the day after the Belmont Stakes. Now 3-for-4 this year, he clearly is trending the right way. He hasn’t worked since his last win on Aug. 2.

Next five: Far Bridge, Redistricting, Fort Washington, Integration, Gold Phoenix.

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. She again showed up big and ran a game race in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf over a distance I felt was a little out of her scope. Still, she finished runner-up and did more than enough this season to win the Eclipse. She won three of her five starts and was runner-up in the other two. 

2. Special Wan. She delivered a dominant victory in the Goldikova (G3) on the Breeders’ Cup undercard, cementing her place among the best in this division for 2025. Earlier, she captured the Ladies Turf (G3) at Kentucky Downs in just her third start of the season. It’s been a strong campaign overall, third behind Dynamic Pricing in the Just a Game (G1) and victorious in the Honey Fox (G3). 

3. Excellent Truth. After three near-misses, she finally scored her first Grade 1 in the Diana. Though retired after a training injury, she holds her top five for now and stays on my Eclipse ballot.

4. Bellezza. She finished sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, beaten only five lengths. Earlier in the year, she captured the Flower Bowl (G2) and the Sheepshead Bay (G3), and in between, she held her own against top company, placing in the New York (G1) behind She Feels Pretty and again in the Glens Falls (G2).

5. Dynamic Pricing. She was off the board in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland, but her résumé still holds up for a top-five ranking. She ran third in the Diana, well behind the division’s top two. This summer she broke through with her first Grade 1 in the Just a Game and then backed it up with a win in the Perfect Sting at Saratoga.

Next five: Simply in Front, Diamond Rain, Laurelin, Fionn, Lush Lips.

Male sprinters

1. Book’em Danno. His Forego (G1) win further solidified his stranglehold on the sprint division, marking three straight big wins. Even without a Breeders’ Cup Sprint appearance, Eclipse voters will find him hard to ignore. He gets my vote.

2. Bentornato. He absolutely dominated the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in only his second start of the year. But for those arguing he deserves the Eclipse simply because Danno skipped the Breeders’ Cup, I’d ask, where was Bentornato during the other five months Danno was out there running? Bentornato will be on my ballot, but only as second best. Will run next season and point to races in the Middle East to start.

3. Patch Adams. After failing to stretch out, this 3-year-old found his wheelhouse in sprints, rattling off back-to-back Grade 1s against fellow 3-year-old males, capped by the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) at Saratoga. Retired because of injury, he stays here as he would be on my Eclipse ballot if the season ended today.

4. Imagination. Backed up his last-out win with a runner-up effort in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. The Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2) winner ran only three times in 2025.

5. Dr. Venkman. This gelding showed up once again, missing the runner-up spot by a nose in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Before that, he captured the Pat O’Brien (G2) and hit the board in three other graded stakes earlier in the season.

Next five: Lovesick Blues, Straight No Chaser, Nakatomi, Mullikin, Barnes.

Female sprinters

1. Kopion. She holds onto the top spot despite her off-the-board finish against the boys. Over the course of the season, she was the most consistent and accomplished female sprinter, delivering the standout performance of the division in May in the Derby City Distaff (G1). She’ll have my Eclipse vote, no question.

2. Shisospicy. The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) winner is riding a five-race winning streak in the U.S. She was dominant in all three of her graded-stakes victories this season and deserves a spot on the Eclipse ballot when you weigh the full body of work.

3. Sweet Azteca. Scored her second win this season last out in the Rancho Bernardo (G3). This was after her remarkable comeback win in the Great Lady M (G2), where she defeated Kopion. That came nine months after her last race, a stunning off-the-board finish at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth (G3) at Santa Anita. Was scratched out of the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. This spot is close between her and Splendora.

4. Splendora. She defeated a watered-down, seven-horse Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint field. It was her first graded-stakes win of the season, and she picked up placings in two others. I could go either way with her in the no. 3 or no. 4 spot.

5. Hope Road. Disappointed with her third-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, where she was beaten by six lengths. Before that she was in New York dominating the Ballerina at Saratoga to earn her first Grade 1 victory. The win also flattered Kopion, whom she had been chasing earlier in the year. 

Next five: Ways and Means, Positano Sunset, Vahva, Tamara, Ragtime.

2-year-old males

1. Ted Noffey. He capped off a 4-for-4 season with a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, giving him three Grade 1 wins on the year. Although I don’t see him as a major threat for next year’s Triple Crown given the added distances, there’s no denying he was an above-average 2-year-old by modern standards.

2. Brant. The hype horse in the division heading into the Breeders' Cup, he ran well to finish a game third. Obviously the farther he runs the less effective he will be, but as a 2-year-old this season he surely was one of the best.

3. Mr. A. P.. This maiden winner made quite a splash in his first stakes race as he nearly won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, dropping a one-length decision when runner-up. 

4. Desert Gate. A bit disappointing in the American Pharoah (G1) when finishing second, beaten by less than a length. Before that the Best Pal (G3) winner ran a strong race in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), closing late on Brant to finish a length behind.

5. Blackout Time. Ran well at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) to be runner-up to Ted Noffey. I get the feeling he might be better than most we have seen thus far despite no stakes wins. Scratched from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Next 5: Napoleon Solo, Intrepido, Ewing, It’s Our Time, Litmus Test.

2-year-old fillies

1. Explora. I am going to place this gal on top of this division for now, mainly because I am not sure I can give the top vote to Super Corredora, who ran in only one stakes race so far this season. Explora dominated the Oak Leaf (G2) before her runner-up effort in the Breeders' Cup and finished second in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) in her other stakes appearance.

2. Super Corredora. Should we really hand an Eclipse to a horse with only one stakes appearance all season? It’s never happened in the Eclipse-award era. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner will need to make another start before she earns my vote.

3. Percy’s Bar. Third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, this gal's arrow is pointing up. Before the Breeders' Cup she was clearly the best horse in the Alcibiades (G1), crossing the wire first before being disqualified for interference in the stretch. That effort followed a runner-up finish in the Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga. 

4. Taken by the Wind. The Pocahontas (G2) winner is 2-for-2 to kick off her career.

5. Tommy Jo. This gal struggled in the Breeders' Cup, finishing fifth, but she does have two Grade 1 wins on her résumé, albeit one by DQ.

Next 5: Cy Fair, Bottle of Rouge, Rileytole, Ground Support, Lennilu.