Division rankings: Trimming Eclipse fat before Breeders’ Cup

With the Breeders’ Cup just a fortnight away, the annual bout of selective amnesia is about to kick in. You know the type, where voters forget there were actual races before November. While everyone else scrambles to rewrite the season after the Breeders’ Cup, several of my votes already are locked in.

It’s time to start trimming the fat from each divisional Eclipse race. Longtime readers of these rankings already know the landscape, and for once, it’s refreshing. Several divisions feel all but decided. In fact, four of my Eclipse votes already are locked in. Win, lose, scratch, or don’t even ship, nothing that happens Breeders’ Cup weekend is changing them.

Which divisional leaders already have my vote locked up? Before we find out, here is an updated look at the rankings.

3-year-old males

1. Sovereignty. He steamrolled an overmatched Grade 1 Travers and now looms a single win from horse of the year. His résumé has swelled with each start, placing him among the most decorated Derby winners since American Pharoah. The Breeders’ Cup Classic awaits, a race that will settle horse of the year.

2. Journalism. He entered the Pacific Classic (G1) desperate for a win to keep his Eclipse hopes alive but never got close to Fierceness and wound up a distant second. Even so, his season remains solid, though he seems to have leveled off. The Breeders’ Cup Classic looms as a possible next target.

3. Baeza. As expected, he proved much the best in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), underscoring just how steep the drop-off is in this division after the top three. He still has every right to move forward again in his next start, the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

4. Nevada Beach. Became the first member of this crop to defeat older males in a Grade 1 route race as he scored an impressive win in the Goodwood (G1), defeating last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Full Serrano among others. Will run next in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where the waters will be much deeper.

5. Magnitude. He rebounded from a poor Travers with a strong, come-from-behind effort to finish second to Baeza in the Pennsylvania Derby. What stood out to me was how he did it, closing from several lengths back. 

Next 5: Goal Oriented, Gosger, Rated By Merit, Burnham Square, Bracket Buster.

Let’s be honest, the 3-year-old male division is over. Sovereignty sealed the deal weeks ago when Journalism failed to win the Pacific Classic. Even if Sovereignty finishes up the track in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, this Eclipse already is his. The résumé is too strong, the body of work too complete.

Journalism had his window to make it interesting, but that Pacific Classic loss slammed it shut. My Eclipse vote in this division is locked into Sovereignty.

Book’em Danno owns the sprint division. Period. He swept three major Saratoga races, and with no rival boasting anything close to his résumé, this one’s a walkover. Regardless of what happens at Del Mar in his absence, he’s the Eclipse winner.

Sure, some will nitpick that he notched only one Grade 1. Reality check. There are only four unrestricted Grade 1 sprints all year. Others will bring up Patch Adams, the talented 3-year-old who grabbed a pair of restricted Grade 1s before going to the sidelines. Maybe if he’d stayed healthy and taken down older rivals in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, we’d have a discussion. But he didn’t.

This was a slam dunk. Case closed. And the best part? Danno’s a gelding, which means we’ll actually get to see him do it again next year, assuming the racing gods cooperate.

I’ve been tough on now-retired Thorpedo Anna the last two seasons, not out of disrespect but out of resistance to the hype. The filly can run, no question, but the human noise around her often drowned out reality. That’s not her fault.

This year she once again ruled over a historically thin division yet still managed to gut out four graded-stakes wins from six starts, more than enough to lock down this Eclipse. Some voters might pivot to Dorth Vader or Seismic Beauty if one of them wins the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, but not me. This one’s a no-brainer.

Last week I wrote that the 3-year-old filly Eclipse race was still up for grabs. Well, that didn’t age well. Both Fionn and Laurelin went down, leaving Nitrogen standing on the brink of an Eclipse.

I haven’t inked this vote just yet, because there’s still one filly who could shake things up. Should Clicquot, the Cotillion (G1) winner, land the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she’ll make her case loud enough that even I’d have to listen.

Finally, and yes, this may ruffle a few feathers, but the horse-of-the-year race is over. Sovereignty, regardless of what happens on Breeders’ Cup Day, has already sealed my vote. This isn’t complicated math. The colt swept the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, Jim Dandy (G2) and Travers, in succession. That résumé speaks louder than any shiny Breeders’ Cup weekend cameo. Sovereignty accomplished all this against what by today’s standards was an exceptionally strong group of 3-year-old male rivals.

Sure, he hasn’t faced older, but no older male’s résumé comes close. Mindframe has a single win this year going longer than a mile. Fierceness has two graded wins from four starts. Sierra Leone, one win from four starts. Any of the three could still claim their own divisional Eclipse, but none, even with a Breeders’ Cup victory, can unseat Sovereignty from where he stands.

History backs this up: California Chrome in 2014, Havre de Grace in 2011, Zenyatta in 2010, Curlin in 2008, Skip Away in 1998 and Cigar in 1996 are among horses who lost their Breeders’ Cup race and still took home horse of the year. Others didn’t even show up. Rachel Alexandra in 2009, Mineshaft in 2003, Point Given in 2001 and Holy Bull in 1994 are among the nine that still walked off with the title. Even Criminal Type in 1990 finished off the board in his final race before the Breeders’ Cup and then didn’t even run in the Breeders’ Cup and still was voted horse of the year.

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He was fortunate to come out of a chaotic Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) unscathed and keeps his place at the top for now, but the focus turns to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. As much respect as he commands, it’s hard to picture him winning the Classic off a four-month layoff. Tenuous hold on the top spot.

2. Sierra Leone. In the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), Sierra Leone delivered a huge effort after veering hard to dodge the fallen rider of Mindframe. Flavien Prat nearly pulled him up, but once the colt seemed sound around the first turn, he pressed on, even from 18 lengths back. Despite losing several lengths because of the trouble, Sierra Leone closed for second, beaten just over a length. He’s still one of only three runners with a real shot at dethroning Sovereignty in the Classic and matching Tiznow as the lone two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner.

3. Fierceness. He showed plenty in his Pacific Classic (G1) win, overcoming a near-disastrous start before seizing command mid-race and never looking back. Clearly at home at Del Mar, if he brings his A game to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he’ll be tough to reel in. He joins the short list of three with a legitimate chance to stop Sovereignty.

4. Nysos. His scratch from the Pacific Classic ended any realistic Eclipse hopes in this division. His team is training him straight up to the Breeders’ Cup after missing the Goodwood (G1), with Dirt Mile the target. He likely would be the favorite in that race if he goes.

5. Antiquarian. He came out on top in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and has built a solid season, adding placings in the Suburban (G2) and Blame (G3). I’m not convinced he’s truly of this caliber, but like the 3-year-old ranks, this group is top-heavy, with a sizable gap between the top tier and the rest. Will be a big long shot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Next five: Highland Falls, White Abarrio, Locked, Phileas Fogg, Mystik Dan.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Not surprisingly to regular readers of these rankings, she finished off the board in the Spinster. Simply put, she hasn’t moved forward from last season and was never head and shoulders above the fillies ranked below her. Still, she deserves credit for gutting out wins, even if the competition was subpar. She was retired formally Wednesday, but regardless of what happens in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she’ll have my vote for the Eclipse in this division. Why? Because she showed up. She ran all season and won races while others sat out for months or never ventured beyond their home state. In these rankings the entire season matters.

2. Cavalieri. Out the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, Cavalieri had an effort in the Zenyatta (G2) which was impressive, especially given the disastrous break and a six-month layoff. She holds her spot here because, if the season ended today, she’d still be on my ballot. 

3. Seismic Beauty. Scored a nice win last out in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1), going wire to wire. Clearly the fastest horse in the division on paper in 2025, she will be a tough one to beat if she can stay healthy this fall. Is working and preparing for a run in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

4. Dorth Vader. She just missed another Grade 1 in the Personal Ensign, beaten on the bob by Thorpedo Anna, a margin that could prove costly in the Eclipse race. Her only other win this season came in June’s Ogden Phipps (G1) at Saratoga.

5. Gin Gin. Winner of the Spinster (G1) last out, her only other win this season also came at Keeneland in April in the Doubledogdare (G3). 

Next five: Richi, Leslie’s Rose, Gun Song, Royal Spa, Raging Sea.

3-year-old fillies

1. Nitrogen. She didn’t run poorly in the Spinster (G1), finishing second to Gin Gin, but let’s be honest, the bar in this division is set pretty low. She still holds the top spot for now, but she’s no lock for the Eclipse, especially when a placing in the upcoming Breeders’ Cup Distaff is a tall order.

2. Clicquot. A surprise winner of the Cotillion (G1), she has strung together four straight wins, including the Indiana Oaks (G3) leading into her latest score. Will point next to the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

3. Good Cheer. Clearly not the same filly who won the Kentucky Oaks (G1) earlier this season, she was off the board in the Cotillion, beaten by more than six lengths. Still, her races earlier this year matter, so she stays in the top five here.

4. La Cara. Tied for the most top level scores in this division, the problem is that she has been off the board in three other grade 1 races, including her last two.

5. Laurelin. Ran okay in the Queen Elizabeth where she was runner-up. The Saratoga Oaks (G2) winner’s stock did take a hit with her first career loss.

Next five: Scottish Lassie, Quietside, Margie’s Intention, Ragtime, Lush Lips.

Turf males

1. Rebel’s Romance. With apologies to Deterministic and the rest, how could Rebel’s Romance not be atop the division? His dominant victory in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) left several of those ranked below in his wake. This globetrotting gelding now turns his focus to the Breeders’ Cup Turf, where the stakes could not be higher. A win would give him a record third Breeders’ Cup Turf and a second Eclipse Award. He arguably will be the biggest equine star on Breeders’ Cup weekend.

2. Deterministic. He has strung together three straight graded-stakes victories, including back-to-back Grade 1s. Most recently, he dominated the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga after capturing the shortened nine-furlong Manhattan (G1) the day after the Belmont Stakes. Now 3-for-4 on the year, he clearly is trending the right way. Hasn’t worked since his last win on Aug. 2 and likely will drop from this spot in the coming weeks.

3. Formidable Man. After bagging the Eddie Read (G2) and Del Mar Mile (G2), adding to his Kilroe Mile (G1) tally, he has racked up three graded wins this year. The question is whether he’s been facing top-level rivals or soft California fields.

4. El Cordobes. The Sword Dancer (G1) winner ran his race when third behind Rebel’s Romance in the Joe Hirsch. Could show up next for the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

5. Notable Speech. Impressive win in the Woodbine Mile (G1), which was his first win in five starts this season. Was third in last years Breeders’ Cup Mile, and that is where he will run next.

Next five: Johannes, Far Bridge, Redistricting, Fort Washington, Integration.

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. She gutted out a game win in the E. P. Taylor (G1) to hold her spot on top here. It was her second Grade 1 of the season and, remarkably, her fifth overall in just 12 starts, the fastest to five since Rushing Fall matched the feat five years ago.

2. Excellent Truth. After three near-misses, she finally scored her first Grade 1 in the Diana. As sharp as that was, it’s still not enough to leapfrog She Feels Pretty, who’d be the Eclipse choice if the vote were today. Though recently retired after a training injury, she holds her spot at No. 2 for now and stays on my Eclipse ballot.

3. Special Wan. She scored in the Ladies Turf (G3) last out at Kentucky Downs, only her third start of the season. She’s had a solid year overall, finishing third behind Dynamic Pricing in the Just a Game (G1) and winning the Honey Fox (G3). 

4. Bellezza. She won the Flower Bowl (G2) last out and earlier this season captured the Sheepshead Bay (G3). In between, she placed in the New York (G1) behind She Feels Pretty and in the Glens Falls (G2).

5. Dynamic Pricing. She was off the board in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland, but her résumé still holds up for a top-five ranking. She ran third in the Diana (G1), well behind the division’s top two, but earlier this summer she broke through with her first Grade 1 in the Just a Game, then backed it up with a win in the Perfect Sting at Saratoga.

Next five: Simply in Front, Ag Bullet, Laurelin, Lush Lips, Segesta.

Male sprinters

1. Book’em Danno. His Forego (G1) win further solidified his stranglehold on the sprint division, marking three straight big wins. Even without a Breeders’ Cup Sprint appearance, Eclipse voters will find him hard to ignore. He gets my vote regardless of what takes place at Del Mar.

2. Bentornato. After nearly a year on the shelf, last season’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up came back firing, dominating the Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes. The horse to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

3. Patch Adams. After failing to stretch out, this 3-year-old has found his wheelhouse in sprints, rattling off back-to-back Grade 1s against fellow 3-year-old males, capped by the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) at Saratoga. Recently retired because of injury, he stays here for now as he would be on my Eclipse ballot if the season ended today.

4. Dr. Venkman. This gelding ran big last out in winning the Pat O’Brien (G2) and stamped himself as a Breeders’ Cup Sprint contender. Remember, he was second to Nysos in the Triple Bend (G3).

5. Imagination. I don’t know what to think about his win in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2). Coming off an eight-month break, he cruised home effortlessly, defeating Dr. Venkman and Straight No Chaser in impressive style. Sure, Straight No Chaser might have needed the race after a long layoff, but so did Imagination. It stands out as one of the most impressive graded sprint performances we’ve seen this year. But how will he respond when things get tougher in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint?

Next five: Straight No Chaser, Nysos, Nakatomi, Mullikin, Booth.

Female sprinters

1. Kopion. She comes off a solid runner-up finish in the Clement Hirsch at 8 1/2 furlongs, but even her earlier setback to Sweet Azteca in the Great Lady M (G2) hasn’t knocked her from the top spot. Before that, she stamped her class in the Derby City Distaff (G1), blowing past her 8-1 morning line with authority. Up next in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint or the Sprint against the males.

2. Sweet Azteca. Scored her second win this season last out in the Rancho Bernardo (G3). This was after her remarkable comeback win in the Great Lady M, where she defeated Kopion. That came nine months after her last race, a stunning off-the-board finish at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth (G3) at Santa Anita. A major player in this division when she is right.

3. Hope Road. This West Coast-based star dominated the Ballerina at Saratoga, earning her first Grade 1 victory. The win also flattered Kopion, whom she had been chasing earlier in the year. Now she looks like a major player for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

4. Ways and Means. Absolutely dominated the Bed o’ Roses (G2), drawing off by more than seven lengths and staking her claim as likely the top female sprinter on the East Coast. Before that, she was a solid third in the Derby City Distaff behind top-ranked Kopion. She was put on the shelf for the remainder of the season with her return next season still in question.

5. Positano Sunset. Scored a nice win last out in the Open Mind Stakes at Churchill, and her only loss this year in four starts was in the Derby City Distaff in May. She won the Madison (G1) in April at Keeneland.

Next five: Praying, Haulin Ice, Richi, Ragtime, Tamara.

2-year-old males

1. Ted Noffey. Didn’t skip a beat shipping to Keeneland for the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), winning going away. He looks like the real deal, and honestly I’m not sure he doesn’t already have the Eclipse wrapped up, win or lose on Breeders’ Cup day. It would take an extraordinary effort by another colt to win the Juvenile and already own a major victory to knock him from the top spot in these rankings.

2. Blackout Time. Ran well at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Futurity to be runner-up to Ted Noffey. I get the feeling he might be better than most we have seen thus far, despite no stakes wins.

3. Brant. The hype horse in the division, but I am not convinced. He was 1-9 in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) but had to work hard to score a one-length win over Desert Gate. As he goes longer I expect he will find things even tougher. Up next in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

4. Intrepido. Ran well when upsetting the American Pharoah (G1) for his first stakes win. He is 2-for-3 overall and will have home-field advantage in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, having broken his maiden over the Del Mar surface.

5. Desert Gate. A bit disappointing in the American Pharoah when finishing second, beaten less than a length. Still, he’s got plenty of upside and remains a serious player for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Before that, the Best Pal (G3) winner ran a strong race in the Del Mar Futurity, closing late on Brant to finish just a length behind.

Next 5: Ewing, Napoleon Solo, It’s Our Time, Comport, Buetane.

2-year-old fillies

1. Tommy Jo. Was handed the win via a DQ in the Alcibiades (G1) when it was clear to everyone she would be runner-up. She remains on top of the division for now but seems shaky heading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

2. Explora. Dominated the Oak Leaf (G2) and could end up favored in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Previously she finished second in the Del Mar Debutante (G1).

3. Bottle of Rouge. The Del Mar Debutante winner drove clear late for the win. She is 2-for-3 in her career thus far. Was flattered when Explora won the Oak Leaf.

4. Percy’s Bar. Was clearly the best horse in the Alcibiades, crossing the wire first before being disqualified for interference in the stretch. That effort followed a runner-up finish in the Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga. The arrow is definitely pointing up for this filly.

5. Taken by the Wind. The Pocahontas (G2) winner is 2-for-2 to kick off her career

Next 5:  Iron Orchard, La Wally, Rileytole, Ground Support, Lennilu.