Division rankings: Rebel’s Romance makes a U.S. cameo

In eight years of doing these rankings, I’ve rarely highlighted an overseas-based horse making a U.S. stop. The lone exception before last year’s Kentucky Derby was Japan’s Forever Young. But the arrival of the globetrotting superstar Rebel’s Romance for this weekend’s Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Aqueduct deserves attention.

Rebel’s Romance will use the Hirsch as his final prep before chasing a historic third Breeders’ Cup Turf win. This gelding not only commands my attention this weekend, he’s also making me reconsider how I approach my year-end Eclipse votes.

I’ll get into that in a moment, but first, here’s a look at the turf male rankings heading into the weekend. Rebel’s Romance doesn’t appear below because he hasn’t raced in the U.S. this season. But if he comes through in another major stateside race, it’s hard to argue against moving him straight to the top, especially in a division that’s been anything but inspiring.

Turf males

1. Deterministic. He has strung together three straight graded-stakes victories, including back-to-back Grade 1s. Most recently, he dominated the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga after capturing the shortened nine-furlong Manhattan (G1) the day after the Belmont. Now 3-for-4 on the year, he’s clearly trending the right way.

2. Formidable Man. After bagging the Eddie Read (G2) and Del Mar Mile (G2), adding to his Kilroe Mile (G1) tally, he has racked up three graded wins this year. The question is whether he’s been facing top-level rivals or soft California fields.

3. Far Bridge. He ran his worst race of the season in the Sword Dancer (G1), finishing off the board. Even so, three graded-stakes wins keep his résumé strong enough to prevent a major drop. A victory in the Joe Hirsch this weekend over Rebel’s Romance, El Cordobes and others would catapult him back into the thick of this Eclipse race.

4. El Cordobes. The Sword Dancer winner last out, he has won his last two races, both graded stakes. Has run seven times already this season. Gets a real test this weekend in the Joe Hirsch.

5. Notable Speech. Impressive win in the Woodbine Mile (G1), which was his first win in five starts this season. Was third in last years Breeders' Cup Mile, and that is where he will run next.

Next five: Fort Washington, Integration, Redistricting, Spirit of St Louis, Zulu Kingdom.

Longtime readers know my Eclipse stance. I don’t vote for a horse who spends the year overseas, shows up stateside only for the Breeders’ Cup and walks off with a win.

This situation usually comes up in the grass divisions. Sure, there are seasons without a clear leader. But more often than not, the answer isn’t to take the lazy way out with recency bias and hand your vote to an overseas horse who swoops in to win a Breeders’ Cup race.

A glaring example came in 2021, when War Like Goddess was robbed of an Eclipse. She won four graded races but fell just short in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, only to lose the Eclipse to Japan’s Loves Only You. Her entire U.S. season was essentially ignored.

Last year, Johannes was another casualty of this bias. His lone loss, a hard-luck second in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, was his only blemish on the season, but Rebel’s Romance claimed the Eclipse off a single U.S. appearance in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Here’s my dilemma. After years of holding firm to my rule, I find myself questioning it. Maybe it’s time to admit that, in rare cases, circumstances demand a more open mind.

Looking back at last year, it was clear that the standout horse of the entire Breeders’ Cup was Rebel’s Romance. He campaigned across six countries in 2024, winning five of six starts. Was Johannes deserving of the Eclipse? In my view, yes. But given the circumstances, I can understand why some cast their vote for Rebel’s Romance.

It’s a tough call.

Going forward, I’ll be open to the so-called one-and-doners, those who ship in and win a Breeders’ Cup race, but only when a division truly lacks a clear leader heading into the championships.

This weekend, the Rebel’s Romance show rolls into New York. Now age 7, this gelding carries the aura of a rockstar on a world tour. His résumé is staggering: 28 career starts across 16 racetracks in more than half a dozen countries, with 19 wins at 13 venues. He already is a two-time Breeders’ Cup Turf champion and an Eclipse Award winner.

The Joe Hirsch at the Belmont at the Big A meet is where Rebel’s Romance will look to notch career win no. 20. His stablemate El Cordobes joins the field along with Far Bridge. Although nothing is a given, especially now in late in his sixth season of racing, this is Rebel’s Romance’s race to lose.

If he delivers this weekend, the stage will be set for the Breeders’ Cup Turf, where Rebel’s Romance will try to join the legendary Goldikova as only the second horse to win the same Breeders’ Cup race three times. And if he does, he’ll make my Eclipse vote an easy one.

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He was fortunate to come out of a chaotic Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) unscathed and keeps his place at the top for now, but the focus turns to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. As much respect as he commands, it’s hard to picture him winning the Classic off a four-month layoff.

2. Sierra Leone. In the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Sierra Leone delivered a huge effort after veering hard to dodge the fallen rider of Mindframe. Flavien Prat nearly pulled him up, but once the colt seemed sound around the first turn, he pressed on, even from 18 lengths back. Despite losing several lengths because of the trouble, Sierra Leone closed for second, beaten just over a length. He’s still one of only three runners with a real shot at dethroning Sovereignty in the Classic and matching Tiznow as the lone two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner.

3. Fierceness. He showed plenty in his Pacific Classic (G1) win, overcoming a near-disastrous start before seizing command mid-race and never looking back. Clearly at home at Del Mar, if he brings his A game to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he’ll be tough to reel in. He joins the short list of three with a legitimate chance to stop Sovereignty.

4. Nysos. His scratch from the Pacific Classic ended any realistic Eclipse hopes in this division. Connections now aim for the Goodwood (G1) later this month, though he hasn’t logged a published work since August 21. If he skips the Goodwood, he’ll slide in these rankings. His team is considering training him straight up to the Breeders’ Cup with either Dirt Mile or Sprint an option.

5. Antiquarian. He came out on top in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and has built a solid season, adding placings in the Suburban (G2) and Blame (G3). I’m not convinced he’s truly of this caliber, but like the 3-year-old ranks, this group is top-heavy, with a sizable gap between the top tier and the rest.

Next five: Highland Falls, White Abarrio, Locked, Hit Show, Phileas Fogg.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Credit where it’s due, she simply knows how to win. Her gritty nose score over Dorth Vader in the Personal Ensign (G1) likely locked up another Eclipse, giving her four wins from five starts this year. Maybe someone out west can still make noise, but she keeps shutting the door. Expect to see her next in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland.

2. Seismic Beauty. Scored a nice win last out in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1), going wire to wire. Clearly the fastest horse in the division on paper in 2025, she will be a tough one to beat if she can stay healthy this fall. 

3. Kopion. I thought her Clement L. Hirsch was sneaky good. Last early, she rallied for second behind Seismic Beauty without flinching at the extra distance. Nine furlongs for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff looks well within reach. Now her connections have a call to make, try the Distaff or drop back to sprints, where she already is elite.

4. Dorth Vader. She just missed another Grade 1 in the Personal Ensign, beaten on the bob by Thorpedo Anna, a margin that could prove costly in the Eclipse race. Her only other win this season came in June’s Ogden Phipps (G1) at Saratoga.

5. Leslie's Rose. She checked in a distant third in the Personal Ensign, more than nine lengths behind the top two, but earlier this season scored her first graded victory of the year in Saratoga’s Shuvee (G2) and ran third in the Vagrancy (G3) prior to that.

Next five: Cavalieri, Richi, Raging Sea, Randomized, Royal Spa.

3-year-old males

1. Sovereignty. He steamrolled an overmatched Travers (G1) and now looms a single win from horse of the year. His résumé has swelled with each start, placing him among the most decorated Derby winners since American Pharoah. The Breeders’ Cup Classic awaits, a race that will settle horse of the year.

2. Journalism. He entered the Pacific Classic (G1) desperate for a win to keep his Eclipse hopes alive but never got close to Fierceness and wound up a distant second. Even so, his season remains solid, though he seems to have leveled off. The Breeders’ Cup Classic looms as a possible next target.

3. Baeza. As expected, he proved much the best in the Pennsylvania Derby, underscoring just how steep the drop-off is in this division after the top three. He still has every right to move forward again in his next start, the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

4. Magnitude. He rebounded from a poor Travers with a strong, come-from-behind effort to finish second to Baeza in the Pennsylvania Derby. What stood out to me was how he did it, closing from several lengths back. All things considered, he’s established himself as the fourth-best in this division.

5. Goal Oriented. Ran well but was only third best in the Pennsylvania Derby, nearly five lengths behind Baeza. Still searching for his first stakes win, but has now placed in two straight Grade 1 events. 

Next 5: Gosger, Burnham Square, Chunk of Gold, Coal Battle, Patch Adams.

3-year-old fillies

1. Nitrogen. Showed up in the Alabama (G1) and proved much the best to rocket to the top of this division. This turf standout now will stick to the dirt as she will look for one more race before the Breeders' Cup Distaff. Will take on Thorpedo Anna next in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland.

2. Fionn. This division is in such disarray that this gal has vaulted all the way to this spot while idle last weekend. She has credentials, she is 5-for-6 this season on the grass with three graded-stakes wins that include the Belmont Oaks (G1) in July and the Dueling Ground Oaks (G3) last out at Kentucky Downs.

3. Clicquot. A surprise winner of the Cotillion (G1), she’s now strung together four straight wins, including the Indiana Oaks (G3) leading into her latest score.

4. Good Cheer. Clearly not the same filly who won the Kentucky Oaks earlier this season, she was off the board in the Cotillion, beaten by more than six lengths. Still, her races earlier this year matter, so she stays in the top five here.

3. Scottish Lassie. She wasn’t terrible in the Cotillion, but she came up short of expectations, finishing fourth by two lengths. That said, she was dominant in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) before that.

Next five: Laurelin, La Cara, Quietside, Margie's Intention, Kilwinl.

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. She gutted out a game win in the E. P. Taylor (G1) to hold her spot on top here. It was her second Grade 1 of the season and, remarkably, her fifth overall in just 12 starts, the fastest to five since Rushing Fall matched the feat five years ago.

2. Excellent Truth. After three near-misses, she finally scored her first Grade 1 in the Diana. As sharp as that was, it’s still not enough to leapfrog She Feels Pretty, who’d be the Eclipse choice if the vote were today. The First Lady (G1) at Keeneland is likely next.

3. Dynamic Pricing. She finished third in the Diana, more than four lengths behind the top two in this division. Before that, she earned her first Grade 1 victory in the Just a Game, and most recently she handled business in the listed Perfect Sting Stakes at Saratoga.

4. Special Wan. She scored in the Ladies Turf (G3) last out at Kentucky Downs, only her third start of the season. She’s had a solid year overall, finishing third behind Dynamic Pricing in the Just a Game (G1) and winning the Honey Fox (G3).

5. Bellezza. She won the Flower Bowl (G2) last out and earlier this season captured the Sheepshead Bay (G3). In between, she placed in the New York (G1) behind She Feels Pretty and in the Glens Falls (G2).

Next five: Beach Bomb, Heredia, Be Your Best, Ag Bullet, Laurelin.

Male sprinters

1. Book'em Danno. His Forego (G1) triumph only cemented his dominance in the sprint ranks, giving him three straight marquee wins. Eclipse voters should have a hard time looking past him, even if Del Mar isn’t on the agenda. This gelding’s body of work is too good to penalize.

2. Bentornato. After nearly a year on the shelf, last season’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up came back firing, dominating the Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes. If Book’em Danno shows up in the Sprint, this is the rival he’ll have to get past.

3. Patch Adams. After failing to stretch out, this 3-year-old has found his wheelhouse in sprints, rattling off back-to-back Grade 1s, capped by the H. Allen Jerkens at Saratoga. Even with a Breeders’ Cup Sprint win, I wouldn’t put him ahead of Book’em Danno if Danno doesn’t show up.

4. Dr. Venkman. This gelding ran big last out in winning the Pat O'Brien (G2) and stamping himself as a Breeders' Cup Sprint contender. Remember, he was second to Nysos in the Triple Bend (G3).

5. Straight No Chaser. The reigning Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion disappointed in Dubai, finishing eighth in the Golden Shaheen (G1). Before that he kicked off 2025 with a win in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) in Saudi Arabia. He has been working and is nearing a comeback.

Next five: Nysos, Mullikin, Booth, Lovesick Blues, Captain Cook.

Female sprinters

1. Kopion. Even after her loss to Sweet Azteca in the Great Lady M (G2), she holds onto the top spot for now. Before that, she blew past her 8-1 morning line in the Derby City Distaff (G1), powering home with authority. With Kopion, Sweet Azteca and Ways and Means all likely Del Mar-bound, this top-heavy division is setting the stage for one of the Breeders’ Cup’s most anticipated showdowns. Last out she ran a solid second in the Clement Hirsch at 8 1/2 furlongs, but a return to sprinting could be in the cards.

2. Sweet Azteca. Scored her second win this season last out in the Rancho Bernardo (G3). This was after her remarkable comeback win in the Great Lady M, where she defeated Kopion. That came nine months after her last race, a stunning off-the-board finish at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth (G3) at Santa Anita. A major player in this division when she is right.

3. Hope Road. This West Coast-based star dominated the Ballerina at Saratoga, earning her first Grade 1 victory. The win also flattered Kopion, whom she had been chasing earlier in the year. She now looks like a major player for the Breeders’ Cup.

4. Ways and Means. Absolutely dominated the Bed o’ Roses (G2), drawing off by more than seven lengths and staking her claim as likely the top female sprinter on the East Coast. Before that, she was a solid third in the Derby City Distaff (G1) behind top-ranked Kopion.

5. Positano Sunset. Scored a nice win last out in the Open Mind Stakes at Churchill, and her only loss this year in four starts was in the Derby City Distaff in May. She won the Madison (G1) in April at Keeneland.

Next five: Two Sharp, Nic's Style, Richi, Scylla, Ragtime.

2-year-old males

1. Ted Noffey. Really showed me a lot in that Hopeful (G1) win, which was extraordinary. Excited to see him in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) for his next start at Keeneland as I don't think the added distance will be his downfall.

2. Ewing. Won the Saratoga Special (G2) last out and is unbeaten in two starts. Will go next at Keeneland in the Breeders' Futurity.

3. It's Our Time. I rarely rank a maiden winner this high or even at all, but with 2-year-olds, the rankings can be volatile from week to week. He earned this spot by demolishing a Saratoga maiden field of eight others by more than 17 lengths, posting a sharp figure in the process.

4. Brant. The hype horse in the division, but I am not convinced. He was 1-9 in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) but had to work hard to score a one-length win over Desert Gate. As he goes longer I expect he will find things even tougher.

5. Desert Gate. The Best Pal (G3) winner ran very well in the Del Mar Futurity, closing the gap on Brant to drop a one-length decision. He would be a serious player in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile if he runs there.

Next 5: Spice Runner, Comport, Civil Liberty, Buetane, Curtain Call.

2-year-old fillies

1. Tommy Jo. Impressive in her first two career starts, her last out being a six-length score in the Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga.

2. Bottle of Rouge. The Del Mar Debutante (G1) winner drove clear late for the win. She is 2-for-3 in her career thus far.

3. Explora. The Debutante favorite didn't run poorly when finishing second and should be better around two turns.

4. Time to Dream. It might surprise a few to see her ranked this high, but she is 2-for-2 in her career on the grass, both at Saratoga, with her last coming in the listed P. G. Johnson Stakes.

5. Himika. Expected more from her last out in the Del Mar Debutante, where she checked in fourth. Before that she won the Sorrento (G3) at Del Mar

Next 5: Taken by the Wind, Percy's Bar, Chopsticks, Mythical, Quiet Street.