Division rankings: Fillies step into the spotlight

This week offers a welcome pause from the overhyped narrative surrounding the Kentucky Derby trail for 3-year-old colts. The latest case of recency bias in horse racing centers on Virginia Derby winner Incredibolt, whose Kentucky Derby odds were cut to as low as 12-1 in some markets after that win. This surge comes despite the fact that eight of his nine rivals had beaten only maiden company or had yet to win at all.

Meanwhile, the spotlight shifts to the 3-year-old fillies with the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks taking center stage. With another strong performance, unbeaten Bella Ballerina will establish herself as the clear leader of what has been a relatively underwhelming group so far.

Here’s how the 3-year-old fillies stack up heading into the weekend, with more below on Bella Ballerina and the state of the division.

3-year-old fillies

1. Zany. Won her seasonal debut at Tampa Bay in the Suncoast Stakes, running her record to 3-for-3. At age 2 she was a dominant winner of the Demoiselle (G2), with her only other start a win over maidens. Still not sure what to make yet of this daughter of American Pharoah because she hasn't been overly fast. She may drop from this spot this week.

2. Bella Ballerina. The Golden Rod (G2) winner at 2 prevailed in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) in her 3-year-old debut last time out, running her record to 3-for-3. She runs again this weekend in the Fair Grounds Oaks, where another win sends her to the top of the division.

3. Meaning. Impressed in the Las Virgenes Stakes in her seasonal debut. Her final start at age 2 saw her finish fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She is 2-for-3 so far in her career. Was flattered with Explora's recent Honeybee (G3) win.

4. Explora. Impressed last out in the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn for her second win in 2026. Her only loss was to Meaning in her previous start in the Las Virgenes. Could run again next week in the Fantasy (G2) at Oaklawn.

5. Percy’s Bar. She finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and appears to be moving in the right direction. She clearly was the best horse in the Alcibiades (G1), crossing the wire first before being disqualified for stretch interference, a performance that followed a runner-up finish in the Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga.

Next five: She be Smooth, Forced Entry, Bottle of Rouge, Counting Stars, On Time Girl.

Although it would be a stretch to call the sophomore filly divisions of the past few seasons especially deep, there is reason for optimism. This year’s group has started slowly once again, but Bella Ballerina and Zany offer a glimmer of hope that the division can round into form and become both deep and competitive, perhaps even producing a rivalry or two. I might be getting ahead of things, but if Bella Ballerina holds up her end with another win to stay unbeaten while capturing her third straight graded stakes, we could be on our way.

There’s plenty to like about Bella Ballerina. For starters, she has a solid foundation with two starts as a 2-year-old. She’s also shown versatility, having raced at three tracks in three career outings. One of those victories came over Churchill Downs, home of the Kentucky Oaks and the site of her Golden Rod win last November.

Just as importantly, her pedigree suggests she’s well suited for longer, two-turn races, and she should only improve as the distances increase. She also has proven she can handle traffic and competition, having won her first two starts against fields totaling 19 rivals.

As is often the case nowadays with early-season sophomore graded stakes, the field Bella Ballerina meets this weekend is light on proven credentials, and there are no graded-stakes winners. Only one other entrant, Life of Joy, has captured any stakes race, taking last fall’s Rags to Riches Stakes at Churchill Downs. In short, anything less than a win would be a major disappointment.

The division’s other high-profile unbeaten member with multiple stakes wins, Zany, is set to make her next start in two weeks at Keeneland in the Ashland (G1). If all goes to plan, the two could meet in Louisville and ignite a much-needed rivalry for this division.

Older dirt males

1. Nysos. He showed me more in defeat in the Saudi Cup (G1) than he had in any of his previous wins. He displayed real heart in the stretch, giving Forever Young all he could handle in his one-length defeat. For those who question his stamina, I’m not convinced, as he was gaining on Forever Young late. Last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner earns the top spot here for now, especially with no certainty that several of the horses ranked below him will even make it to the races in 2026.

2. Sovereignty. He dominated an overmatched field in the Travers (G1), cementing a résumé that already places him among the most accomplished Kentucky Derby winners since American Pharoah. At the time, the Travers felt like a possible curtain call, but that doesn't appear to be the case now. He could make his seasonal debut in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) on April 18.

3. Skippylongstocking. Winning the Pegasus World Cup (G1), the division’s biggest race so far, demands respect, especially given how convincingly he handled rivals ranked below him here. Do I expect him to remain in the upper half of the division all season? Probably not. But today’s rankings reward what has been accomplished, and for now, he stays. He is entered in Saturday's Essex Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn.

4. Journalism. He delivered a career-best performance in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, finishing fourth and beaten by less than four lengths by the winner. Before that, he was runner-up to Fierceness in the Pacific Classic (G1). It was a strong campaign for the 3-year-old, one that clearly hinted at further improvement. Now officially a 4-year-old, he returned to his Santa Anita stable from Bridlewood Farm in Florida. Back in training, his connections are targeting the Met Mile (G1) in June.

5. White Abarrio. Ran very well in his seasonal debut last out in the Pegasus when runner-up to Skippyongstocking. Was well clear of the rest and still has gas in the tank at age 7. Could run in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) for his next start.

Next five: Magnitude, Knightsbridge, Hit Show, Baeza, Touchuponastar.

Older dirt females

1. Nitrogen. Disappointed in the sloppy Azeri (G2) last out, but she still stays afloat here at the top for now. She ran very well in her seasonal debut in the Bayakoa (G3) previously, so I am willing to give her a mulligan here. 

2. Splendora. She makes her rankings debut here in this division after her Beholder Mile (G1) win. I don't believe she will contend here in the long run as she will more likely kept to one-turn races after an experiment around two turns fails.

3. Majestic Oops. The ninth-place finisher from last fall's Breeders' Cup Distaff has been stellar this year at age 6, winning both of her starts. She won the Azeri and in the process secured her first graded-stakes win in her 35th career start.

4. Clicquot. Her fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff was a respectable effort and capped a late-season surge. She was a surprise winner of the Cotillion (G1) before the Breeders’ Cup and had reeled off four consecutive victories, including the Indiana Oaks (G3). Has been working regularly.

5. Good Cheer. She clearly was not the same filly who captured the Kentucky Oaks (G1), finishing off the board in the Cotillion and beaten by more than six lengths. Looks to get back on track in 2026.

Next five: Claret Beret, Perfect Shot, Regaled, Fully Subscribed, Grand Job.

3-year-old males

1. Nearly. For now, he remains something of a placeholder, as it’s hard to believe another won't eventually take this spot. He looked impressive winning the Holy Bull (G3), but it’s fair to question the quality of the competition he defeated. Bravaro, who finished second that day, came back to finish off the board in the Fountain of Youth (G2). His connections now plan to wait two months for the Florida Derby (G1), and it’s worth noting that the Holy Bull was his first stakes victory.

2. Paladin. He ground out a victory in the Risen Star (G2) in just his third career start, and his connections now plan to wait until April’s Blue Grass Stakes (G1) for his next appearance. The obvious comparison is Sierra Leone, who had the same number of starts at this stage and also ran in both the Remsen (G2) and the Risen Star. Sierra Leone was clearly the better horse at this point in his development, but Paladin might not need to be, depending on how the rest of this division unfolds.

3. Commandment. He impressed in the Fountain of Youth (G2), grinding out a narrow win over maiden winner Chief Wallabee. The figures assigned to the performance were generous, and at this stage I’m not sold on any of the Florida-based Kentucky Derby contenders. Still, he has won three straight and three of four overall. Whether the Derby’s 10-furlong distance is within his scope remains a question, but for now he earns a spot here, at least for now.

4. Silent Tactic. Ran well in the Rebel (G2), and although he lost a close decision to the newcomer, Class President, there is little doubt that this guy is the better horse. The Southwest (G3) winner probably will return in the Arkansas Derby (G1) as one of the horses to beat.

5. Renegade. Broke his maiden in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. That win came after a runner-up finish to Paladin in the Remsen (G2) last fall. He is just 1-for-4 in his career but appears as good as any in a division that is up for grabs. Could run next in the Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass.

Next 7: Class President, Potente, The Puma, Chief Wallabee, Golden Tempo, Incredibolt, Chip Honcho. 

Turf males

1. Deterministic. He has put together three consecutive graded-stakes victories capped by back-to-back Grade 1 wins. Most recently he dominated the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga after capturing the shortened 1 1/8-mile Manhattan (G1) the day after the Belmont Stakes. He finished 3-for-4 in 2025.

2. Formidable Man. He turned in a career-best effort in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, finishing second and quieting critics who questioned whether he had been flattered by softer California competition. On the season he captured three graded stakes, including the Kilroe Mile (G1), earning his place among the division’s top contenders in 2026.

3. Rhetorical. Finished 4-for-5 in 2025. His only loss was a fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Mile, which came one race after his win in the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland. Could return in April at Keeneland.

4. Test Score. Won the Pegasus Turf (G1) in his first start as a 4-year-old. He was a three-time graded-stakes winner on the grass as a 3-year-old.

5. Grand Sonata. This veteran 7-year-old won his first race since 2024 when taking the Mac Diarmida Stakes (G2) in his first start of 2026. Last season he was runner-up in three graded stakes.

Next five:  Tiz Dashing, Mondego, One Stripe, Quatrocento, Wolfie's Dynaghost.

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. She once again showed up in a big way, turning in a gutsy performance in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf over a distance I felt stretched her limitations. She finished second and did more than enough over the course of the season to secure the Eclipse in this division in 2025. She won three of her five starts and finished second in the other two. Her return will be delayed, meaning she will drop from this spot in the coming weeks.

2. Lush Lips. Won her first start of 2026 in the Honey Fox (G3) at Gulfstream, and overall she has won three in a row dating to last season. This 4-year-old filly is a serious contender for the top spot.

3. Destino d'Oro. Now 2-for-2 this season after her last out Hillsborough (G2) win at Tampa Bay Downs. This win follows her Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2) win at Gulfstream.

4. Shisospicy. The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner is on a five-race winning streak in the U.S. She was dominant in all three of her graded-stakes victories in 2025, which led to her winning the Eclipse vote as North America's top female sprinter. 

5. Segesta. Won the Matriarch (G1) last fall for her first top-level score, and before that she was runner-up in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland. Could make her seasonal debut on Kentucky Derby weekend at Churchill Downs.

Next five: Dynamic Pricing, Queen Maxima, Thought Process, Just Basking, Speed Shopper.

Male sprinters

1. Book’em Danno. Winner of four his five starts in 2025, he starts the season on top here. Will not go to Dubai for obvious reasons and will stay stateside for his next start, which will come in either the Carter (G2) at Aqueduct or the Commonwealth (G3) at Keeneland, both on April 4.

2. Bentornato. The Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner scored that win in only his second start of the season. Although it wasn’t enough to earn my Eclipse vote last season, a more active campaign in 2026 could change that. 

3. Imagination. Ran well as the favorite in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) to score a win for the U.S. He finished last season with a strong runner-up effort in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2) winner made only three starts in 2025, but each was competitive. This guy will be a force to be reckoned with in this division this season.

4. Dr. Venkman. The hard-knocking gelding showed up once again, missing the runner-up spot in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint by a nose when finishing third. Earlier in 2025 he captured the Pat O’Brien (G2) and consistently hit the board in three additional graded stakes, rounding out another dependable and productive campaign. Expected to be back in 2026.

5. Bishops Bay. As expected he wasn't a factor in the Saudi Cup but he did win the Cigar Mile (G2) previously. He's more of miler and stuck between divisions, but he has a better chance in 2026 to be a player in this division rather than the older dirt male division. 

Next five: Tejano Twist, Bold Journey, Nakatomi, Crazy Mason, Roll on Big Joe.

Female sprinters

1. Splendora. The Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner has impressed in two starts since, which included the Beholder Mile (G1) last out. No doubt her connections will probably try to stretch her out even more, but the belief here is she will be back sprinting.

2. Usha. Won the La Brea (G1) in her final start as a 3-year-old. Could be a major player in this division.

3. Shisospicy. The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner is on a five-race winning streak in the U.S. She was dominant in all three of her graded-stakes victories in 2025, which led to her winning the Eclipse vote as North America's top female 

4. R Disaster. Won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) in her first start of the season and last year she placed in three graded stakes

5. Grand Job. Won the Inside Information (G2) in late January for her first graded stakes win.

Next five: Hope Road, Sterling Silver, Zeitlos, Ragtime, Shred the Gnar.