Division rankings: Fading Fierceness in Kentucky Derby

At long last, the moment has arrived. After weeks of anticipation and endless hype, we can now delve into the real race analysis, discussing which horses stand out to us and which ones we might fade.

Personally, and I'm sure many of you can relate, the Kentucky Derby has proven to be a lucrative betting opportunity over the years. Victories such as Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Medina Spirit in 2021 have led to some of my largest payouts, securing successful trifecta and superfecta bets.

During this time of year, opinions abound like blooms in spring, from the seemingly inconsequential post draw to the futile critiques of morning workouts. Let's be real, when have we ever heard horse connections admit their charge wasn't performing up to par? Never. As for the post-draw frenzy? It's akin to the fervor around the NFL draft, yet its significance eludes me entirely.

Sure, post 17 has never won, but it's been used a mere 44 times. Consider post 6, which boasts two wins but has been used a hefty 94 times. And what about post 12? It's been sitting on the sidelines for 52 years without a win. Post 14? A whopping 62 years of waiting. You get the idea.

Before diving into my Kentucky Derby analysis below, let's take a moment to review this week's division rankings, which are poised for significant shifts in the coming week. With numerous stars hitting the track this weekend, I anticipate plenty of movement in the rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Señor Buscador. Despite finishing third in the Dubai World Cup (G1) in his most recent outing, Señor Buscador retains his no. 1 spot. His record this year thus far as been good, winning the Saudi Cup (G1) before his Dubai appearance. He kicked off the season with a close second-place finish to National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in January. The focus now will be on preparing for the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar in late August, potentially making a start in the San Diego Handicap (G2) in late July as a prep.

2. National Treasure. He finished fourth in the Saudi Cup, but he put in a commendable performance and fell short by just under two lengths. Holding steady at the no. 2 spot, the winner of the Pegasus World Cup has once again demonstrated his maturity in his recent races. Back in the U.S, look for him to return in the summer months.

3. White Abarrio. No excuses when off the board in the Saudi Cup, and one has to wonder whether running overseas with his trainer under a microscope had anything to do with it. The Breeders' Cup Classic winner from last season will run the rest of the year in the U.S., where he will try to get back to the dramatic form reversal we witnessed over his three starts before the Saudi Cup. His connections have outlined plans for just three more races this season. The next target is the Met Mile (G1), followed by appearances in the Whitney (G1) and concluding the season with the Breeders' Cup Classic.

4. Saudi Crown. Struggling to find his stride in the Godolphin Mile (G2), he finished a disappointing 12th. The inability to secure an early lead seemed to be his downfall. Before the setback in Dubai, he came close to victory in the Saudi Cup, fading in the late stages to secure a respectable third place, falling short by 3/4 of a length. Looking ahead, the Met Mile in June is being considered for his next race.

5. Newgate. Game winner of a thrilling edition of the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), he delivered a lackluster performance in the Dubai World Cup, finishing in ninth place. The focus will be on the goal of running in the Breeders' Cup Classic at his home base, Del Mar, this fall.

Next 5: Skippylongstocking, First Mission, Kingsbarns, Angel of Empire, Red Route One

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Gutsy winner of the Breeders' Cup Distaff, she returns as defending champion of this division after having won the Eclipse. With an impressive record of eight wins from nine starts in 2023, including triumphs in three Grade 1 events, she has resumed training. She returns Friday in the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs.

2. Sweet Azteca. Won her first graded stakes last out in the Beholder Mile (G1). She is 3-for-4 in her short career. 

3. Adare Manor. Made a rare appearance outside of her home state of California and won the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn impressively by more than five lengths. She appears to have moved forward off of a runner-up effort to Sweet Azteca in the Beholder Mile in her prior race. She is indeed a major player in this division and is actually running in races while other expected contenders continue to sit on the bench.

4. Pretty Mischievous. The 3-year-old female Eclipse winner from 2023, this gal also will return in the La Troienne on Friday.

5. Randomized. Runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Distaff as a 3-year-old, she came on late at the end of last season. Scored in the Beldame (G2) over older for her second graded-stakes win before the Distaff, and last summer she won the Alabama (G1). Could be a serious player in this division.

Next 5: Coffee in Bed, Desert Dawn, Bellamore, Super Shine, Flying Connection

3-year-old males

1. Sierra Leone. Facile winner of the recent Blue Grass (G1), this guy as yet to deliver a subpar performance throughout his career and arguably could be undefeated. With three wins from four starts, he resides here on top because of his consistent performances regardless of the conditions. Unlike the no. 2 contender, Fierceness, he delivers in every race he runs. I anticipate that he will emerge as the favorite for the Kentucky Derby when the gates open, and there's every indication that he'll be in the mix of things when they turn for home.

2. Fierceness. With a dominant win in the Florida Derby (G1), this guy won by a record margin. Not only was the performance impressive in terms of speed, it also marked the fastest speed figure any 3-year-old male has achieved around two turns this season. Despite his success in his two stakes wins, he hasn't faced much adversity and has yet to string together consecutive wins. It seems he thrives when conditions are in his favor. Following his recent blowout win and impressive speed figure, he's expected by some to be favored this weekend. But it's worth noting the cautionary tale of Bellamy Road, who similarly faltered when faced with adversity but delivered a remarkable blowout victory with a significant speed figure just before the Kentucky Derby in 2005, making him the favorite.

3. Muth. Dominated the Arkansas Derby (G1) last out and is now 2-for-2 on the season as he impressed to win going away in the San Vicente (G2) in January. Last season at age 2 he was second best in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and won the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita. Look for him to run in the Preakness two weeks after the Kentucky Derby.
4. Catching Freedom. Closed well to take the Louisiana Derby (G2) last out and stamp himself as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. Love that he started three times already this season, winning two of them. Good foundation at age 2, and he looks like he can be a major player in this division from here on out.

5. Just a Touch. Very good runner-up to Sierra Leone last out in the Blue Grass (G1), and before that he was runner-up in the Gotham (G3) in just his second career start. I give this son of Justify a big shot to turn the tables on his rival and come away with the win in the Kentucky Derby. Very similar pattern that last year's winner, Mage, had heading into Louisville.
Next 10: Nysos, Endlessly, Domestic Product, Just Steel, Resilience, Honor Marie, Stronghold, Imagination, Track Phantom, Dornoch

3-year-old females

1. Leslie's Rose. Defeated all comers in the deepest field this division has seen thus far in the Ashland (G1) last out. So yes, she deserves the top spot for now. Now 3-for-4 on her career, her only loss was a third-place finish in the Davona Dale (G2) earlier this season. The Kentucky Oaks is next.

2. Just F Y I. I can't fault her for her runner-up finish in the Ashland as she ran well in her first start since her Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies win. Should move forward off that effort and be among the favorites in the Kentucky Oaks (G1).
3. Tarifa. With two graded-stakes wins this season, Tarifa scored last out in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Now 4-for-5 on her career, she looks like one of the fillies to beat in the Kentucky Oaks.

4. Nothing Like You. Dominated the Santa Anita Oaks (G2), winning by more than seven lengths and leaving Kinza in her wake. Was that an aberration? Possibly. Still, a nice effort.

5. Kinza. No excuses when runner-up to Nothing Like you last out in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2. In her prior three starts she was dominant, posting two graded-stakes wins this season.

Next 5: Thorpedo Anna, Power Squeeze, Tamara, Jody's Pride, Candied

Turf males

1. Master of The Seas. We finally have a solid leader of this division after he won the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) last out in dominating fashion. He now has three Grade 1 scores from his last four starts in North America. But the problem is he won't run again until August, so he will fall from this spot. For now, he is up top, but I'm disappointed the connections will bench him for four months and wait till the Aug. 10 Fourstardave (G1) for his next start.

2. I'm Very Busy. Validated his no. 2 ranking in recent weeks with another strong performance, this time a win last out in the Muniz (G2) at Fair Grounds. In his other start this season he was runner-up in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), which was his first start since a runner-up effort in the Hill Prince (G2) last November at age 3. Trained by Chad Brown, he is the horse to beat now in a wide-open division. Will go next in the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill on the Kentucky Derby undercard.

3. Du Jour. Overpowered the Kilroe Mile (G1) field last out for his first Grade 1 win. Before that he was off the board in the Breeder's Cup Mile and won one graded stakes in 2023.

4. Program Trading. Won the Hollywood Derby (G1) in his last start in December. Now age 4, he should be even better. Takes on I'm Very Busy in the Turf Classic this weekend.

5. Casa Creed. Beaten by only a half-length in the Breeders' Cup Mile, this guy never was off the board in 2023, going 2-for-5 with one Grade 1 win. Missed the Saudi Arabia trip because of a fever and returned in the Al Quoz Sprint (G1) in Dubai and finished sixth.

Next 5: Missed the Cut, Naval Power, Emannuel, Easter, Exaulted

Turf females

1. English Rose. It's early in this division with no clear standout, and this gal resides on top for now after her runner-up in the Jenny Wiley (G1), where she finished ahead of several ranked below. She has run two other times this season, both overseas, wining a Group 2 stakes and finishing runner-up in another. The Just a Game (G1) on Belmont Day is next.

2. Didia. The winner of the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January, she won two graded stakes last season and was 10th in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She finished third in the Jenny Wiley.

3. Gina Romantica. Sort of a disappointment in the Jenny Wiley, she finished seventh, beaten over seven lengths in her first start of 2024. Last season she made only four starts but scored a big win in the First Lady (G1) and then finished a very good fourth in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

4. Beaute Cachee. In the best form of her career now at age 5, this Chad Brown-trained daughter of Literato scored her first Grade 1 win in the Jenny Wiley at odds of 25-1. The Jenny Wiley was her first start of 2024. Her last start of 2023 was a third-place finish in the Matriarch (G1) at 18-1 odds.

5. Ruby Nell. Third in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January, she won last out in the Buena Vista (G2) at Santa Anita.

Next 5: Bellabel, War Like Goddess, McKulick, Alpha Bella, Surge Capacity

Male sprinters

1. Skelly. Ran a superb race last out in the Count Fleet Sprint (G3) setting an extremely fast pace and with more than enough in the tank to win by three. Before that effort he ran well in Saudi Arabia, finishing runner-up in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3). He won the King Cotton Stakes at Oaklawn in his first start of 2024. He's won eight of his last nine starts, and his connections are keeping him at Oaklawn for a listed stakes, the Lake Hamilton this Saturday.

2. The Chosen Vron. Won his fourth straight last weekend since his Breeders' Cup Sprint loss last fall. His record is remarkable, winning 17 of his 22 career starts. Tops out west in this division, the only question for this guy in 2024 will be whether he can hang with the very best in this division.

3. Post Time. He has won eight of his nine career starts and already is 3-for-3 this season with two graded-stakes wins. Last out he scored in the Carter (G2) at Aqueduct. Runs in the Westchester (G3) this weekend at Aqueduct.

4. Nakatomi. Third last out in Dubai in the Golden Shaheen (G1), he was third in last fall's Breeders' Cup Sprint. Major player in this division.

5. Sibelius. Didn't run well in his defense of his Golden Shaheen (G1) win last out as he faded to finish 11th. Before that effort he won the Feb. 10 Pelican Stakes at Tampa, defeating Nakatomi.

Next 5: Bo Cruz, Hoist the Gold, Tejano Twist, Super Chow, Big City Lights

Female sprinters

1. Alva Starr. The winner of the Madison (G1) last out in her second start of 2024, she resides here at the top for now. The Madison was her second graded-stakes win, and she is 5-for-8 overall on her career and will try to make it two big wins in a row in the Derby City Distaff (G1) this weekend.

2. Three Witches. Third in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall, she made her seasonal debut a winning one at Santa Anita with a win in the Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita. Takes on the No. 1 in a stacked Derby City Distaff this weekend.

3. Vahva. Finished runner-up to Alva Starr in the Madison in her first start of 2024. Won the Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland last fall. She too runs in the Derby City Distaff.

4. Red Carpet Ready. The winner of the Hurricane Bertie (G3) in March at Gulfstream, she was third to Alva Starr in the Madison last time out. Entered in the very deep Derby City Distaff this weekend.

5. Society. This gal was fourth in last fall's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and is back on the work tab. She won two stakes last year and should be a major player in this division.

Next 5: Olivia Darling, Shidabhuti, Apple Picker, Honor D Lady, Sterling Silver

Japan has strongest opportunity yet for Derby glory

The previous two running's of the Kentucky Derby have been disappointing for me from a wagering standpoint. Last year, Angel of Empire came close but fell short, and the year before, I picked another UAE Derby winner, Crown Pride, after trying that angle with Thunder Snow in 2017.

For me, the Kentucky Derby season kicks off when I select one or two horses in the January-February period and place early wagers on them in the futures. Last year, Angel of Empire nearly brought me victory. This year, I went with Forever Young and Just a Touch, and to my delight, both not only have secured spots in the starting gate but also are considered strong contenders for the win.

All eyes seem to be on Fierceness, the Florida Derby winner. However, I'm making the bold decision to exclude the 2-year-old champion from all my tickets. There are numerous reasons for this decision, one being the striking resemblance, past-performance-wise, to a previously overhyped Kentucky favorite, Bellamy Road (2005).

Even loyal supporters of Fierceness have to acknowledge his unreliability. He has yet to put together two consecutive wins and appears to falter when faced with any adversity, so he's entering Saturday's race with uncertainty. For me, he seems like a horse destined for either victory or a disappointing finish. While his recent performance in the Florida Derby was undeniable, the assigned speed figure was, to say the least, somewhat generous. Sandwiched between his two stakes triumphs were lackluster performances. To me, Fierceness is all or nothing this weekend. He has a greater chance of finishing off the board than he does winning the race.

With Fierceness out of consideration, the race is pretty clear for me, making it easier to craft my ticket selections.

Forever Young just wins his races. With a flawless record of five wins in five starts, he represents Japan's strongest contender yet for Kentucky Derby glory. His victory in the Saudi Cup, despite running on the wrong lead in the stretch, showcased his talent as he defeated Book’em Dano, arguably the top U.S.-based 3-year-old miler. In the UAE Derby, Forever Young displayed his versatility by rallying from the back of the pack to secure a solid win, hinting that he had more to offer. The Derby distance plays into his strengths, and for those who analyze speed figures, his performances in the Middle East stand out as some of the fastest by any U.S.-based 3-year-old this season. The only potential drawback is his apparent discomfort with dirt kickback, although his connections have been actively addressing this in training by having him work behind other horses to acclimate him to it.

Concerned about the UAE Derby angle? Consider this: while it's true that none of the previous 23 winners have won in Louisville, the same applies to the winners of the Wood Memorial, 23 and counting, while the Blue Grass Stakes has gone 32 and counting. Some may argue that also-rans from these races have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, but it's important to consider the strength in numbers. The UAE typically sends only one horse to Louisville, whereas the Wood Memorial and the Blue Grass Stakes often have multiple entrants.

Trends like this will be broken, eventually. Remember the notion that horses must have raced at age 2 to win the Kentucky Derby? That’s been debunked twice in the last six years.

Entering this weekend’s race, Just a Touch brings momentum from a solid second-place finish in the Blue Grass behind Sierra Leone, whom I expect to be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. The Blue Grass marked Just a Touch's third outing and his maiden run on a dry track. With this experience under his belt, I anticipate Just a Touch is poised for a big race, especially with the added distance. He should be able to sit off the leaders and carve out a good trip. I expect this guy to take over when they turn for home, and the question will be whether he can hold off the closers. I believe Just a Touch has a big shot to win.

One of the horses who is expected to be far back early but come running at the end is Sierra Leone. I like Sierra Leone, and he has done little wrong so far in his four-race career. But we've seen horses with similar styles arrive in Louisville seemingly invincible with their late-running style only to falter on the big day. Sierra Leone's resemblance to Tapit Trice from the previous year is notable: Tapit Trice boasted a 4-for-5 record, triumphing in the Blue Grass Stakes, and was the subject of much hype from pundits and fans alike to wear the roses. But Tapit Trice disappointed. This trend extends to Tacitus (2019) and Audible (2018), both highly regarded closers as they swept through their prep races preceding the Kentucky Derby yet fell short of expectations.

Sierra Leone has shown consistency and reliability, giving no indication that he won’t come running with his A-game. But, as mentioned above, Tapit Trice last year appeared poised for a strong late run but finished seventh. Of course, all this Sierra Leone analysis applies to Forever Young, who also likely will be far back early.

For Japan and Forever Young, they picked a good Kentucky Derby to try as this is the weakest field on paper speed figure-wise in the modern era as only one horse entered, Fierceness, has cracked the 100 Beyer scale over a dry track. Conversely, the remaining 17 U.S.-based contenders have collectively raced 104 times without surpassing a Beyer figure of 98, which was the figure assigned to Sierra Leone for his win in the Blue Grass Stakes.

If Forever Young brings his A-game, I have every confidence he'll be in the winner’s circle and make history for Japan early Saturday evening. This marks my third ride with the UAE Derby winner, yet this time, I've had my sights set on him for months.

Therefore, my top picks are Forever Young and Just a Touch. As for contenders underneath, Sierra Leone is the obvious choice and I see no reason why he can’t be coming late. Additionally, I have faith in T O Password, the other Japanese entry, to surpass his expected long odds. Catching Freedom, Just Steel, Honor Marie, Stronghold, and Resilience are also on my radar as strong contenders for the underneath positions.

Above all, my deepest wish for this weekend is the safe return of all equine athletes, not only those competing in the Kentucky Derby, but anywhere in the racing world. Wishing good luck to all involved, and to everyone wagering this weekend.