Division rankings: Fade Baeza at your peril in Pennsylvania Derby

You could look at this weekend’s Pennsylvania Derby in two very different ways. Through a jaded lens, it’s one of the softest Grade 1 fields we’ve seen this late in the season. Ten entries, 75 starts, and just one Grade 2 win with three Grade 3s among them. But when we dive deeper and perhaps with the aid of rose-colored glasses, you might see this field as a sneaky-good Pennsylvania Derby despite those numbers.

I’m leaning toward the sneaky-good angle. Three of my top five 3-year-old males are entered, and even with the light résumé in terms of graded wins, these three runners are proven commodities, legitimate players in a 3-year-old male division that suddenly has become top-heavy.

Despite what some might think, Baeza is clearly the horse to beat, with only two others posing any real threat to upset him. Baeza rolls into the weekend planted at no. 3 in the division, with only Sovereignty and Journalism above him in my rankings.

I’ll dig into the race itself in a moment, but first, here’s how the 3-year-old males stack up heading into the last major two-turn race of the season restricted to this division.

3-year-old males

1. Sovereignty. He steamrolled an overmatched Travers (G1) and now looms a single win from horse of the year. His résumé has swelled with each start, placing him among the most decorated Derby winners since American Pharoah. The Breeders’ Cup Classic awaits, a race that will settle horse of the year.

2. Journalism. He entered the Pacific Classic (G1) desperate for a win to keep his Eclipse hopes alive but never got close to Fierceness and wound up a distant second. Even so, his season remains solid, though he seems to have leveled off. The Breeders’ Cup Classic looms as a possible next target.

3. Baeza. After pouring everything into the Jim Dandy (G2) and falling a length shy of Sovereignty, he’s still chasing that elusive first stakes victory. Even so, he’s entrenched in the top three of his division. The Pennsylvania Derby awaits, and anything less than a win will disappoint.

4. Gosger. If not for Journalism’s brilliance, he already woul be a two-time Grade 1 winner. Instead, he comes into the Pennsylvania Derby off gritty runner-up finishes in the Preakness and Haskell (G1), with a Lexington (G3) win earlier this season.

5. Goal Oriented. Still searching for his first stakes win, he showed plenty in the Preakness and Haskell, and I like his chances in this weekend’s Pennsylvania Derby.

Next 5: Burnham Square, Chunk of Gold, Magnitude, Coal Battle, Patch Adams.

Plenty of ink has been spilled trying to poke holes in Baeza, but calling him a “default” favorite is a stretch worthy of a yoga class. He’s a battle-tested colt who has danced nearly every big dance this division has offered. Depending on which speed figures you use, Baeza stands tall over this field. Although a couple of his rivals might have posted a shinier number in a race or two by some metrics, they did it in friendlier spots where the water was far shallower. Those numbers don’t tell the whole story. Context matters, and Baeza’s numbers were forged while sparring with the two best in the division, Sovereignty and Journalism.

Needing much better than his 2-1 morning-line odds to consider him a win bet is cute but also untethered from how real money gets made. Call him an underlay if you must, but on class, consistency and proven grit, Baeza is the horse they all have to get past. And with an abundance of early speed entered, he figures to get a favorable trip.

So who actually has a shot to upend him? Only two.

With a bit more racing luck, Gosger could be a two-time Grade 1 winner already. After just missing to Journalism in the Preakness, he ran his heart out again in the Haskell, dropping a half-length decision to that same rival. What impressed me most was how he outdueled a game Goal Oriented for the runner-up spot. With the right trip, he could be right there again at the wire.

Goal Oriented, meanwhile, is still a lightly raced colt with upside. After winning his first two starts, he jumped straight into the deep end in the Preakness, finishing a solid fourth despite checking hard in the stretch. Back in the Haskell, he dug in gamely and was narrowly edged for second after sitting close throughout. This will be only his fifth start, and I see him as the biggest threat to Baeza.

As for the rest, I’ll go out on a limb. None of them look capable of toppling the big three. Heading into the Travers, I saw Magnitude as the one most likely to give Sovereignty a real challenge, but he’s a textbook example of a horse who popped a big number against soft company and wilted when the water got deep, fading by 20 lengths.

Remarkably, for all the talent shown by Baeza, Gosger and Goal Oriented, they own just a single Grade 3 win between them. That changes this weekend.

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He was fortunate to come out of a chaotic Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) unscathed and keeps his place at the top for now, but all eyes now turn to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. As much respect as he commands, it’s hard to picture him winning the Classic off a four-month layoff.

2. Sierra Leone. In the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Sierra Leone delivered a huge effort after veering hard to dodge the fallen rider of Mindframe. Flavien Prat nearly pulled him up, but once the colt seemed sound around the first turn, he pressed on, even from 18 lengths back. Despite losing several lengths because of the trouble, Sierra Leone closed for second, beaten just over a length. He’s still one of only three runners with a real shot at dethroning Sovereignty in the Classic and matching Tiznow as the lone two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner.

3. Fierceness. He showed plenty in his Pacific Classic win, overcoming a near-disastrous start before seizing command mid-race and never looking back. Clearly at home at Del Mar, if he brings his A game to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he’ll be tough to reel in. He joins the short list of three with a legitimate chance to stop Sovereignty.

4. Nysos. His scratch from the Pacific Classic ended any realistic Eclipse hopes in this division. Connections now aim for the Goodwood (G1) later this month, though he hasn’t logged a published work since August 21. If he skips the Goodwood, he’ll slide in these rankings. Could his team consider training him straight up to the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile?

5. Antiquarian. He came out on top in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and has built a solid season, adding placings in the Suburban (G2) and Blame (G3). I’m not convinced he’s truly of this caliber, but like the 3-year-old ranks, this group is top-heavy, with a sizable gap between the top tier and the rest.

Next five: Highland Falls, White Abarrio, Locked, Hit Show, Phileas Fogg.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Credit where it’s due, she simply knows how to win. Her gritty nose score over Dorth Vader in the Personal Ensign (G1) likely locked up another Eclipse, giving her four wins from five starts this year. Maybe someone out west can still make noise, but she keeps shutting the door. Expect to see her next in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland.

2. Seismic Beauty. Scored a nice win last out in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1), going wire to wire. Clearly the fastest horse in the division on paper in 2025, she will be a tough one to beat if she can stay healthy this fall. 

3. Kopion. I thought her Clement L. Hirsch was sneaky good. Last early, she rallied for second behind Seismic Beauty without flinching at the extra distance. Nine furlongs for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff looks well within reach. Now her connections have a call to make, try the Distaff or drop back to sprints, where she already is elite.

4. Dorth Vader. She just missed another Grade 1 in the Personal Ensign, beaten on the bob by Thorpedo Anna, a margin that could prove costly in the Eclipse race. Her only other win this season came in June’s Ogden Phipps (G1) at Saratoga.

5. Leslie's Rose. She checked in a distant third in the Personal Ensign, more than nine lengths behind the top two, but earlier this season scored her first graded victory of the year in Saratoga’s Shuvee (G2) and had run third in the Vagrancy (G3) prior to that.

Next five: Cavalieri, Richi, Raging Sea, Randomized, Royal Spa.

3-year-old fillies

1. Nitrogen. Showed up in the Alabama (G1) and proved much the best to rocket to the top of this division. This turf standout now will stick to the dirt as she will look for one more race before the Breeders' Cup Distaff. Will take on Thorpedo Anna next in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland.

2. Good Cheer. She rebounded from a disastrous Acorn (G1) with a strong runner-up effort behind Nitrogen in the Alabama (G1). She’s still very much alive in the Eclipse race, and the Cotillion (G1) at Parx this weekend is a pivotal spot against several rivals ranked just below her.

3. Scottish Lassie. Don’t look now, but she’s closing in on the top after a dominant win in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). Before that, she finished third in the Acorn (G1). She’s slated to run next in this weekend’s Cotillion (G1).

4. La Cara. She never got untracked in the Alabama (G1), finishing off the board, but don’t forget how decisively she took the Acorn (G1). With two Grade 1s already on her résumé, she’ll aim to right the ship in the Cotillion (G1).

5. Quietside. She never looked comfortable in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) on a sloppy track, fading to sixth. But her prior effort, a gritty Fantasy (G2) score over Simply Joking, proved her class. She’ll need to resurface soon to avoid sliding further.

Next five: Kilwin, Fionn, Laurelin, Margie's Intention, Drexel Hill.

Turf males

1. Deterministic. He has strung together three straight graded-stakes victories, including back-to-back Grade 1s. Most recently, he dominated the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga after capturing the shortened nine-furlong Manhattan (G1) the day after the Belmont. Now 3-for-4 on the year, he’s clearly trending the right way.

2. Formidable Man. After bagging the Eddie Read (G2) and Del Mar Mile (G2), adding to his Kilroe Mile (G1) tally, he has racked up three graded wins this year. The question is whether he’s been facing top-level rivals or merely soft California fields.

3. Far Bridge. He turned in his poorest effort of the season in the Sword Dancer (G1), finishing off the board. Still, his résumé, highlighted by three graded-stakes wins, keeps him from dropping too far.

4. El Cordobes. The Sword Dancer winner last out, he has won his last two races, both graded stakes. Has run seven times already this season.

5. Notable Speech. Impressive win in the Woodbine Mile (G1), which was his first win in five starts this season. Was third in last years Breeders' Cup Mile, and that is where he will run next.

Next five: Fort Washington, Integration, Redistricting, Spirit of St Louis, Zulu Kingdom.

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. She gutted out a game win in the E. P. Taylor (G1) to hold her spot on top here. It was her second Grade 1 of the season and, remarkably, her fifth overall in just 12 starts, the fastest to five since Rushing Fall matched the feat five years ago.

2. Excellent Truth. After three near-misses, she finally scored her first Grade 1 in the Diana. As sharp as that was, it’s still not enough to leapfrog She Feels Pretty, who’d be the Eclipse choice if the vote were today. The First Lady (G1) at Keeneland is likely next.

3. Dynamic Pricing. She finished third in the Diana, more than four lengths behind the top two in this division. Before that, she earned her first Grade 1 victory in the Just a Game, and most recently she handled business in the listed Perfect Sting Stakes at Saratoga.

4. Special Wan. She scored in the Ladies Turf (G3) last out at Kentucky Downs, just her third start of the season. She’s had a solid year overall, finishing third behind Dynamic Pricing in the Just a Game (G1) and winning the Honey Fox (G3).

5. Bellezza. She won the Flower Bowl (G2) last out and earlier this season captured the Sheepshead Bay (G3). In between, she placed in the New York (G1) behind She Feels Pretty and in the Glens Falls (G2).

Next five: Beach Bomb, Heredia, Be Your Best, Ag Bullet, Laurelin.

Male sprinters

1. Book'em Danno. His Forego (G1) triumph only cemented his dominance in the sprint ranks, giving him three straight marquee wins. Eclipse voters should have a hard time looking past him, even if Del Mar isn’t on the agenda. This gelding’s body of work is too good to penalize.

2. Bentornato. After nearly a year on the shelf, last season’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up came back firing, dominating the Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes. If Book’em Danno shows up in the Sprint, this is the rival he’ll have to get past.

3. Patch Adams. After failing to stretch out, this 3-year-old has found his wheelhouse in sprints, rattling off back-to-back Grade 1s, capped by the H. Allen Jerkens (G1) at Saratoga. Even with a Breeders’ Cup Sprint win, I wouldn’t put him ahead of Book’em Danno if Danno doesn’t show up.

4. Dr. Venkman. This gelding ran big last out in winning the Pat O'Brien (G2) and stamping himself as a Breeders' Cup Sprint contender. Remember, he was second to Nysos in the Triple Bend (G3).

5. Straight No Chaser. The reigning Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion disappointed in Dubai, finishing eighth in the Golden Shaheen (G1). Before that he kicked off 2025 with a win in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) in Saudi Arabia. He has been working and is nearing a comeback.

Next five: Nysos, Mullikin, Booth, Lovesick Blues, Captain Cook.

Female sprinters

1. Kopion. Even after her loss to Sweet Azteca in the Great Lady M (G2), she holds onto the top spot for now. Before that, she blew past her 8-1 morning line in the Derby City Distaff (G1), powering home with authority. With Kopion, Sweet Azteca and Ways and Means all likely Del Mar-bound, this top-heavy division is setting the stage for one of the Breeders’ Cup’s most anticipated showdowns. Last out she ran a solid second in the Clement Hirsch at 8 1/2 furlongs, but a return to sprinting could still be in the cards.

2. Sweet Azteca. Scored her second win this season last out in the Rancho Bernardo (G3). This was after her remarkable comeback win in the Great Lady M, where she defeated Kopion. That came nine months after her last race, a stunning off-the-board finish at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth (G3) at Santa Anita. A major player in this division when she is right.

3. Hope Road. This West Coast-based star dominated the Ballerina at Saratoga, earning her first Grade 1 victory. The win also flattered Kopion, whom she had been chasing earlier in the year. She now looks like a major player for the Breeders’ Cup.

4. Ways and Means. Absolutely dominated the Bed o’ Roses (G2), drawing off by more than seven lengths and staking her claim as likely the top female sprinter on the East Coast. Before that, she was a solid third in the Derby City Distaff (G1) behind top-ranked Kopion.

5. Positano Sunset. Scored a nice win last out in the Open Mind Stakes at Churchill, her only loss this year in four starts was in the Derby City Distaff in May. She won the Madison (G1) in April at Keeneland.

Next five: Two Sharp, Nic's Style, Richi, Scylla, Vahva.

2-year-old males

1. Ted Noffey. Really showed me a lot in that Hopeful (G1) win, which was extraordinary. Excited to see him in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) for his next start at Keeneland as I don't think the added distance will be his downfall.

2. Ewing. Won the Saratoga Special (G2) last out and is unbeaten in two starts. Will go next at Keeneland in the Breeders' Futurity.

3. It's Our Time. I rarely rank a maiden winner this high or even at all, but with 2-year-olds, the rankings can be volatile from week to week. He earned this spot by demolishing a Saratoga maiden field of eight others by more than 17 lengths, posting a sharp figure in the process.

4. Brant. The hype horse in the division, but I am not convinced. He was 1-9 in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) but had to work hard to score a one-length win over Desert Gate. As he goes longer I expect he will find things even tougher.

5. Desert Gate. The Best Pal (G3) winner ran very well in the Del Mar Futurity, closing the gap on Brant to drop a one-length decision. He would be a serious player in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile if he runs there.

Next 5: Spice Runner, Comport, Civil Liberty, Buetane, Curtain Call.

2-year-old fillies

1. Tommy Jo. Impressive in her first two career starts, her last out being a six-length score in the Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga.

2. Bottle of Rouge. The Del Mar Debutante (G1) winner drove clear late for the win. She is 2-for-3 in her career thus far.

3. Explora. The Debutante favorite didn't run poorly when finishing second and should be better around two turns.

4. Time to Dream. It might surprise a few to see her ranked this high, but she is 2-for-2 in her career on the grass, both at Saratoga, with her last coming in the listed P. G. Johnson Stakes.

5. Himika. Expected more from her last out in the Del Mar Debutante, where she checked in fourth. Before that she won the Sorrento (G3) at Del Mar

Next 5: Taken by the Wind, Percy's Bar, Chopsticks, Mythical, Quiet Street.