Division rankings: Elite Power is in a battle for another Eclipse

Time sure flies by quickly. The upcoming Breeders' Cup marks its 40th anniversary, which is hard to believe. I can vividly recall the first Breeders’ Cup at Hollywood Park, and it featured one of the most courageous performances in Breeders' Cup history, Wild Again's heroic victory in the Classic.

Building on my previous analysis of the Eclipse scenarios in the last few weeks, this week I'm focusing on the sprint divisions.

But before I get to that, let's take a look at this week's updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Cody's Wish. Got back in the winners circle in the Vosburgh (G2) but had to work for his win going off at 1-9 odds. In a historically weak season for this division, what other horse can reside here at this point? The answer is none. This guy controls his Eclipse fate no matter what any other in this division does for the remainder of the season. Despite his setback in the Whitney (G1), he maintains his position at the top because none of the others boasts a resume strong enough to challenge him. He will set his sights on securing victory in the Breeders' Cup Mile for the second consecutive year. Achieving that feat would win the Eclipse award in this division.

2. White Abarrio. It speaks volumes about this division when I'm ranking a horse this high despite his having only one stakes win in his last nine starts spanning 16 months. His impressive victory in the Whitney came under the tutelage of his new trainer, Rick Dutrow Jr., who has returned to the scene after a 10-year suspension. Notably, White Abarrio has delivered career-best speed figures in his two outings since joining Dutrow's stable. Now White Abarrio will focus on the Breeders' Cup Classic. Can he secure an Eclipse award with only two stakes wins? My answer is no. Given that resume, he won't receive my vote. He will be a big underlay and long shot at Santa Anita, in my opinion.

3. Zandon. Finally got his first win of the season in the Woodward (G2) as he closed to win going away. Before that he finished runner-up three times in graded stakes, the last two being the Met Mile (G1) and the Whitney. Will target the Breeders' Cup Classic next and will be the best U.S.-based older male with a chance to win, in my opinion.

4. Proxy. This guy has two graded-stakes wins from six starts this year and ran well last out, almost overcoming a ridiculously slow pace in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) when losing by a nose. So by default, he sits here at No. 4. Will run next in the Breeders' Cup Classic as a long shot.

5. Bright Future. The winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, he was allowed to set tepid fractions that no doubt helped him in his first stakes win. If he runs in the Breeders' Cup Classic he, too, has little chance to come away with the win, in my opinion.

Next 5: Slow Down Andy, Defunded, Senor Buscador, Smile Happy, Skippylongstocking

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Facile winner of the Spinster (G1) last time out, she has won her last four graded-stakes starts, two of which were Grade 1. Overall she is 7-for-8 on the season and has taken hold of this division. Will be favored in the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

2. Clairiere. Was beaten with no excuses two back by Nest and then last out she ran a clunker in the slop in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga. What happens in the prior six months matters to me in this sport, and Clairiere has shown up for all of the previous big events this division had to offer this year, winning two Grade 1 races. A win in the Breeders' Cup Distaff would net her the Eclipse.

3. Adare Manor. Dominated again in a graded race, this time in the Zenyatta (G1) at Santa Anita. The best of the west is now 5-for-6 on the season and will start next in the Breeders' Cup Distaff at her home base of Santa Anita. No matter what happens with the top two, if this gal wins the Distaff, the Eclipse will be hers.

4. Search Results. Got her first win of the year last out in the Locust Grove (G3) at Churchill Downs. Grade 1 placed two times earlier this year. Will run in the Breeders' Cup Distaff next weekend.

5. Secret Oath. The winner of the Azeri (G2) earlier this season, she has been runner-up in three Grade 1 events in 2023, including the Personal Ensign last out. Was retired because of injury.

Next 5: Nest, Played Hard, Fun to Dream, Pauline's Pearl, A Mo Reay.

3-year-old males

1. Arcangelo. He was super impressive in the Travers (G1), defeating a quality field. Validating his Belmont win was critical, and he did that and more. He will face an even stiffer test in the Breeders' Cup Classic, and a win would secure not only the Eclipse in this division, but horse of the year.

2. Arabian Knight. In February this guy was among the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. After his Southwest Stakes (G3) win, he was put on the shelf and didn't return until the Haskell (G1) in July, where he finished third. He obviously needed the race. Last out he was all heart in winning the Pacific Classic (G1) over older horses and fellow 3-year-olds. In the Breeders' Cup Classic at his home track, he would be the horse to beat and should get even better in his third start off that layoff.

3. Geaux Rocket Ride. Was narrowly defeated in the Pacific Classic, but he lost nothing in defeat. The Haskell winner will be one of the horses to beat in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

4. Forte. Disappointed in the Travers, finishing fourth, beaten eight lengths. No way to spin the loss, no excuses. Recently retired and will miss the Breeders' Cup.

5. Mage. Finished last in the Travers, but he gets a mulligan off of that effort considering what he has done prior. A win in the Breeders' Cup Classic would garner him the Eclipse in this division.

Next 5: Angel of Empire, National Treasure, Saudi Crown, Disarm, Practical Move

3-year-old females

1. Pretty Mischievous. She nearly caught the loose-on-the-lead winner of the Cotillion (G1), Ceiling Crusher, but had to settle for the runner-up spot. She didn't lose much luster and has this Eclipse sewn up, in my opinion. She won the Acorn (G1) and the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Will go next in the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

2. Randomized. Scored in the Beldame (G2) last out over older for her second graded-stakes win. During the summer she won the Alabama (G1) and prior to that she was sixth in the Acorn (G1) on Belmont Stakes day. She will run next in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, where a win there would certainly garner her some Eclipse support.

3. Wet Paint. She was runner-up in the Alabama (G1) won by the loose-on-the-lead Randomized. Previously she got the job done in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), defeating four others. I still believe she is among the best in this division. Stuck behind loose-on-the lead types two of the last three races. Will go next in the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

4. Ceiling Crusher. Won the Cotillion (G1) last out, securing her first Grade 1 win. Prior to the Cotillion she won the Torrey Pines (G3) at Del Mar. She will not run in the Breeders' Cup.

5. Defining Purpose. Off the board in the Cotillion last out but did win the Ashland (G1) and Indiana Oaks (G3) earlier this season and was third in the Alabama (G1).

Next 5: Occult, Faiza, Hoosier Philly, Dorth Vader, Window Shopping

Turf males

1. Up to the Mark. Finally made it back the races, and it was worth the wait. He was very impressive winning the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland in his first start since June. In June he was superb winning the Manhattan (G1) at Belmont Park. This guy now has three Grade 1 wins on the year and the Eclipse in the bag, no matter what happens the rest of the season. Will likely run run next in the Breeders' Cup Turf.

2. Casa Creed. Closed stoutly last out in the Fourstardave (G1) to defeat Annapolis in a really impressive effort. A 7-year-old, he is in the best form of his career after winning his last two starts and is a contender in next week's Breeders' Cup Mile.

3. Master of the Seas. Two starts in North America and two good races. He was runner-up to Up to the Mark in the Turf Mile and before that he scored a win in the Woodbine Mile (G1). Will run next in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

4. Bolshoi Ballet. Ran them off their feet in the Sword Dancer (G1) last time out, and that alone bumps him this high, considering the state of this division. Before the Sword Dancer he was winless in four starts overseas. Will go next in the Breeders' Cup Turf.

5. Exaulted. He was a tough-luck runner-up last out in the Del Mar Mile (G2), but before that he was 4-for-4 since being moved to grass from dirt. Won the Shoemaker Mile (G1) earlier this season and is a Breeders' Cup Mile contender.

Next 5: Gold Phoenix, Hong Kong Harry, Nation's Pride, Set Piece, Annapolis

Turf females

1. In Italian. Runner-up again, this time in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland. Still, she does have two Grade 1 wins on the season and still has a resume worth keeping her at the top. Will run in either Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf or Breeders' Cup Mile.

2. War Like Goddess. Scored a big win over the males again when winning the Joe Hirsch (G1) for the second year in a row. Her resume this year isn't as good as in previous seasons, but she is most certainly in this Eclipse race yet again. Will run next in the Breeders' Cup Turf.

3. Fev Rover. Scored a nice win in the E.P. Taylor (G1) last out. Previously she was fourth in the Canadian (G2) Stakes and prior to that she impressed in the Beverly D. (G1) for her second win this season. Earlier this season she was third to Whitebeam and In Italian in the Diana (G1). A win in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf could garner her an Eclipse here in this division.

4. Whitebeam. Didn't fire when off the board in the First Lady (G1). Previously she upset In Italian in the Diana for her first Grade 1 win and second graded-stakes victory overall. Before the Diana she won the Gallorette (G3) on Preakness day at Pimlico. Was flattered by Fev Rover's Beverly D. (G1) win as that one finished third in the Diana. Will skip the Breeders' Cup.

5. Caravel. Defeated her last two starts, with the last one being against females in the Franklin (G2) at Keeneland last out. Both of her prior graded-stakes wins this season have come over males and include the Jaipur (G1) at Belmont. She goes next in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.

Next 5: Gina Romantica, Didia, Moira, Closing Remarks, McKulick

Male sprinters

1. Elite Power. Reigning sprint champ was upset by Gunite in the Forego (G1) after the latter again was allowed to get away with slow fractions. He's still the best in this division by a wide margin, and he will head to the Breeders' Cup Sprint with an eye on a repeat win and another Eclipse. But he's in the same boat as Jackie's Warrior last year, when the latter dominated this division for three-quarters of the season only to lose the Eclipse because of late-season voting bias. He has defeated Gunite in two of their three meetings this season.

2. Cody's Wish. He has one Grade 1 sprint race win this year, the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), and after his loss in the Whitney he rebounded with a win in the Vosburgh. Though it will never happen, an Elite Power vs. Cody's Wish Breeders' Cup Sprint would steal the show. Will run next in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

3. Gunite. He was defeated last out when stretching out to a mile in the Parx Dirt Mile, finishing runner-up. Defeated Elite Power in a major upset in the Forego (G1) previously, but that was his first graded-stakes win this season. Will run in the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

4. The Chosen Vron. He won the Bing Crosby (G1) last out for his eighth straight win, and the previous seven wins all were listed stakes. This California-bred gelding loves sprinting and belongs here for now. Will try to win an Eclipse in next week's Breeders' Cup Sprint.

5. Anarchist. He won the Pat O'Brien (G2) after previously finishing runner-up to The Chosen Vron in the Bing Crosby. This guy has put together a good record this year, running eight times and never finishing worse than second. Has two graded-stakes wins in 2023. Will skip the Breeders' Cup.

Next 5: Dr. Schivel, Speed Boat Beach, Sibelius, Repo Rocks, Doppelganger

Female sprinters

1. Echo Zulu. Devastating to blow to racing and the Breeders' Cup with her career-ending injury. Now we all hope and pray for a successful recovery. I believe she was the best female sprinter we have seen in over 20 years. She was clearly the fastest speed-figure wise, and she dominated last year's Eclipse winner, Goodnight Olive, in the Ballerina (G1) last out. No sprinter, male or female, has run as fast as this gal in 2023. Regardless of what happens in the Breeders' Cup, she was the best female sprinter this season defeating the best.

2. Goodnight Olive. She ran her race in the Ballerina but faced a monster in Echo Zulu. The Eclipse winner from last season started her season with a win in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland. Will go in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

3. Matareya. Filly won the Derby City Distaff (G1) three starts back, defeating Goodnight Olive. Last time out she finished third in the Ballerina. Is capable of big efforts and will run next in  the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

4. Society. She rebounded from a rough start to her season with a 10-length win over Matareya in the Chicago Stakes (G3). Before that she was ninth in the La Troienne (G1) and third in the Madison (G1). Perhaps she is a player in this division? Not sure. She won the listed Pink Ribbon Stakes at Charles Town last time out. She too heads to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

5. Wicked Halo. Runner-up again in the Bed o' Roses (G2) earlier this year to Goodnight Olive, she then won a listed stakes at Ellis Park. Finished second last out to Yuugirl in the Thoroughbred Club of America (G2). Will skip the Breeders' Cup.

Next 5: Yuugirl, Frank's Rockette, Fun to Dream, Sterling Silver, Maryquitecontrary

2-year-old males

1. Prince of Monaco. He won the Del Mar Futurity (G3) last out to stay unbeaten in three starts. He likely will be the Breeders' Cup Juvenile favorite on his home track of Santa Anita, but I am of the opinion he will be an underlay and fired his best shot in this last race.

2. Muth. This guy was the favorite for the Hopeful (G1) but was scratched and ran in the American Pharoah (G1) last out at Santa Anita, where he scored a nice win. Will try and win the Eclipse next weekend in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
3. Timberlake. The beaten favorite in the Hopeful, he finished runner-up to Nutella Fella. Scored a nice win the Champagne (G1) at Belmont in the slop last out. Runs next in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

4. Nutella Fella. He won the Hopeful (G1) last out at 54-1 odds and is 2-for-2 so far in his career. Will be out until spring because of a hairline fracture.

5. Locked. Won the Breeders' Futurity (G1) last out for his first stakes win. Runs next in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Next 5: Mirahmadi, The Wine Steward, West Saratoga, Gold Sweep, Pirate

2-year-old females

1. Tamara. This daughter of Beholder won the Del Mar Debutante (G1) rather easily for her second win in as many starts. She no doubt gets a bump in her reputation given her pedigree and likely will be the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

2. Brightwork. Disappointed when fifth in the Alcibiades (G1) last time out. She stays in the top five here based off of her previous four wins this season. Can redeem herself in next week's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

3. Candied. Won the Alcibiades (G1) in just her second start, defeating Brightwork, among others. Runs next week in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

4. Just F Y I. Impressive Frizette (G1) winner in just the second start of her career. She too heads to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies for her next start.
5. Ways and Means. The heavy favorite in the Spinaway (G1) after winning her maiden race impressively, she was defeated by Brightwork. Finished with racing this season because of a chipped ankle.

Next 5: Chatalas, V V's Dream, Dreamfyre, Dua, Here U Come Again

Echo Zulu dominance will prevail in Eclipse vote

Regardless of the outcome of the upcoming Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, my vote for the divisional champion unequivocally goes to Echo Zulu. Unfortunately, Echo Zulu won't be participating in the Breeders' Cup because of a severe injury she suffered while preparing for the Breeders' Cup Sprint against male competitors. Now, our collective hopes and prayers are with her for successful recovery.

Returning to our discussion about the Eclipse, it essentially comes down to this. Echo Zulu's dominance as the top female sprinter was undeniable. The gap was substantial. Despite making only three appearances this year, it's noteworthy that she had just one fewer start than the probable favorite for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, Goodnight Olive, had up to this point.

Echo Zulu faced Goodnight Olive in the most important race this division had to offer thus far this season, the Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga in August. Echu Zulu easily dispatched her rival by 2 1/2 lengths.

Echo Zulu finished her season 3-for-3, and all three wins were graded stakes.

If Goodnight Olive had a deeper resume for the season, she might have had a case for the Eclipse if she were to secure a consecutive victory in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. But she doesn’t.

Goodnight Olive started her season off right with a win in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland. But then she finished third in the Derby City Distaff (G1) and won the Bed o’ Roses (G2) prior to her runner-up finish to Echo Zulu.

Would another Breeders’ Cup win be enough for another Eclipse? Perhaps an argument can be made. While maintaining good health is undeniably crucial in any sport, Echo Zulu's profound dominance in this division leaves little room for debate. The head-to-head encounter between these two contenders in their most recent starts further solidifies this standpoint.

On the male side, Elite Power has led this division every week of the season and there are only two horses who could unseat him at the top and win the Eclipse.

Elite Power won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and Eclipse a year ago, and will try to become only the third horse to win back-to-back Eclipse awards in this division. Housebuster 1990-91 and Roy H 2017-18 were the other two.

Elite Power's eight-race winning streak came to an end in the Forego (G1) at Saratoga, where he finished as the runner-up to Gunite. Notably, Elite Power had defeated Gunite twice earlier in the season, giving him a 2-1 lead in their head-to-head matchups. Elite Power has run only four times this season, and had just one Grade 1 win.

That leaves the door open.

For Gunite it is very simple. Win the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and the Eclipse is likely his. Gunite is 3-for-7 this season, but toss his last start, a runner-up finish in the Parx Mile. Now he is back sprinting.

What about The Chosen Vron? This impressive California-bred son of Vronsky had been unstoppable against restricted company, winning seven in a row, and then his connections gave him a shot last time out against the best sprinters on the west coast in the Bing Crosby (G1).

The Chosen Vron didn’t disappoint, defeating 11 others and solidifying his status as a formidable contender for the Breeders' Cup Sprint, particularly at his home track of Santa Anita. If he wins the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, he will no doubt be crowned with the Eclipse.