Division rankings: Dornoch could burnish his résumé in Travers

If someone had told me before the Belmont Stakes that Dornoch would be on the brink of winning not only the 3-year-old male Eclipse but also horse of the year, I would have laughed and dismissed the idea as far-fetched. 

Yet here we are, 11 weeks later, and Dornoch has positioned himself for just that. With victories in the Belmont and Grade 1 Haskell, he now has the chance to win the Travers (G1) this weekend, a win that would virtually secure the Eclipse in his division and make him the clear frontrunner for horse of the year.

The struggles this son of Good Magic faced in the Blue Grass (G1) and Kentucky Derby are now a distant memory, as Dornoch has matured and risen to the top of his class.

The Travers will be his toughest challenge yet, especially with the presence of Fierceness. Last season's 2-year-old champion, Fierceness has been enigmatic at 3, alternating between impressive victories and equally disappointing losses.

Before I dive into the upcoming Travers and discuss the other key contenders, let's take a look at this week’s division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. National Treasure. He performed poorly last time out in a muddy Whitney (G1), finishing far back and off the board. It's clear he struggles on an off track as he is now 0-for-3 in such conditions. He remains at the top here because, frankly, what other horse is more deserving? He’s still the only one in this division with two Grade 1 wins this season. He will return to his home base in California to prepare for the California Crown (G1) in September at Santa Anita. This race formerly was known as the Awesome Again and, before that, the Goodwood.

2. Señor Buscador. His record this year has been impressive. He kicked off the season with a close second-place finish to National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in January. He followed that with a victory in the Saudi Cup (G1) in February and a third-place finish in the Dubai World Cup (G1) in March. Will run this weekend in the Pat O'Brien (G2) as a prep for the California Crown. The long-range goal is the Breeders' Cup Classic.

3. Kingsbarns. Very impressive in the Stephen Foster (G1) as he scored his first Grade 1 win. With two graded-stakes wins on the season, this son of Uncle Mo most certainly could have contended for the Eclipse in this division. Retired this week because of injury, he will drop from this spot in the coming weeks.

4. Next. Won impressively again in the listed Birdstone last time out by 22 lengths. But let's pump the brakes here. He beat only three other horses, one of whom didn't even finish the race. Those three had a combined record of 3-for-27 in any stakes races throughout their careers. His win streak now stands at six, and he deserves a shot in a Grade 1, 1 1/4-mile race such as the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 1.

5. Arthur's Ride. His first stakes win was a big one, the Whitney (G1), where he defeated National Treasure. He climbs to No. 5 here, but that's as high as he'll go in these rankings. A wire-to-wire win on a muddy track over a field that, apart from National Treasure, was 1-for-28 in Grade 1 attempts was nice, but he needs to prove he can replicate that performance. It's encouraging to see his connections plan to enter him in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where we will get a better gauge on him.

Next 5: Pyrenees, Crupi, Tapit Trice, Bright Future, Skippylongstocking

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Returns this weekend in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga where she will face Randomized again. This is a must win if she wants to stay atop the division. Last out she returned to the winner's circle in the Molly Pitcher (G3), with a narrow victory after setting a very slow pace. Despite the win, her supporters still have concerns. She was allowed a nearly 1:14 opening six furlongs but struggled to put away an overmatched field, winning by only a head. There are questions about whether her best days are behind her, as her speed figures have declined. All three of her starts this year have been slower than her last six starts last season.

2. Adare Manor. In winning the Clement L. Hirsch (G1), she showed something new: heart and another gear. She looked to be in trouble on the far turn, lagging behind the leaders, but found another gear in the stretch to win decisively over a very good field. She now is 3-for-4 this season with two Grade 1 wins, the most in this division. She has a case to be ranked No. 1 but stays here for now. Her connections are considering the Pacific Classic (G1) against males for her next race. Let's hope she sticks to her own division. But if she runs there and wins, she certainly would take over leadership of this division and enter the horse of the year conversation.

3. Randomized. Last out she delivered a stellar performance in the Ogden Phipps (G1), upsetting Idiomatic. Now she will go for the divisional lead as she takes on Idiomatic again in the Personal Ensign. A win moves her to the top.

4. Sweet Azteca. She returned to the races sprinting in the Great Lady M (G2) and scored another win. Now 4-for-5 in her career, she is entered in Rancho Bernardo Stakes (G3) at Del Mar on Sunday.

5. Scylla. Ran very well in her first trip to California to be runner-up to Adare Manor last out. Surprisingly she is entered this weekend in the Ballerina (G1), a sprint race at Saratoga.

Next 5: Raging Sea, Honor D Lady, Shotgun Hottie, Flying Connection, Desert Dawn

3-year-old males

1. Dornoch. If he wins the Travers this weekend he will be the first since Point Given in 2001 to pull off the Belmont-Haskell-Travers trio of wins. I have been wrong about this colt as he has shown qualities on the track that have won me over, especially his gameness. He's really stepped up his game and clearly doesn't like to be passed when he has the lead in the stretch.

2. Fierceness. Continued his good-race-bad-race pattern with a stellar performance in the Jim Dandy (G2), defeating Sierra Leone, among others. The question now is whether he can win two in a row and take over leadership to this division. Perhaps. He will give it a go in the Travers.

3. Sierra Leone. Ran well in the Jim Dandy but came up short and finished second. The good news is he maintained a straight line in the stretch. In the Travers this weekend, he should be ready for a top performance, and I think he is the horse to beat.

4. Mystik Dan. He faltered in the Belmont but remains near the top because of his achievements in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. He also earns credit in my view for consistently showing up and competing, a quality few of the contenders below him can claim. Would be surprised to see him return to the races this season. Will drop in the coming weeks because of inactivity.

5. Forever Young. With only one start in this country, this horse is ranked here even though he was likely the best in the Kentucky Derby. Now 5-for-6 in his career, he has traveled extensively, with wins in two countries this year. Although it's unlikely we'll see him in the U.S. again soon, the Breeders' Cup remains a possibility. He might drop in the rankings because inactivity in the coming weeks but is expected to return in the Japan Dirt Classic on Oct. 2 at Ohi Racecourse in Tokyo.

Next 5: Seize the Grey, Mindframe, Muth, Batten Down, Catching Freedom

3-year-old fillies

1. Thorpedo Anna. She earned another win over her divisional rivals, this time in the CCA Oaks (G1), finishing just over four lengths ahead. With three Grade 1 victories this season, she has likely secured the Eclipse Award for her division. Her connections have ambitiously decided to run her against the colts in the Travers later this weekend. Despite the hyperbole elsewhere, she is clearly overmatched here and I would be very surprised to see her place.

2. Power Squeeze. Impressive winner of the Alabama (G1) last out, she narrowly defeated Candied by a head. The Alabama was her third graded-stakes win on the season.

3. Candied. Two straight strong runner-up finishes in Grade 1 events. The Alabama came a few weeks after her runner-up to the No. 1-ranked Thorpedo Anna in the CCA Oaks. Before the CCA Oaks she won the Lady's Secret Stakes at Monmouth.

4. Tarifa. Up the track in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), but perhaps she disliked the off track. Still, with two graded-stakes wins this season, Tarifa stays in the top five here.

5. Sugar Fish. Came out of nowhere and dominated the Summertime Oaks (G2) to win by over nine lengths. This gal was coming off an optional-claimer win and before that broke her maiden in an optional claimer. Last time out she finished off the board and behind the older Adare Manor in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1)

Next 5: Nothing Like You, Ways and Means, Leslie's Rose, Kinza, Scalable

Turf males

1. Johannes. Resides at the top here after sitting No. 6 for a few weeks. Why? Well, for starters he has run in and won three graded stakes already this season. His last, a powerhouse win in the Eddie Read (G2) came against a good field. He is now 6-for-10 in his career and a major player in this division moving forward as he will not need to leave his home state of California with the Breeders' Cup Mile being run at Del Mar. Will run next in the City of Hope Mile (G2) at Santa Anita on Sept. 28.

2. Master of The Seas. He won the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) impressively in his last outing, adding to his tally of three Grade 1 victories in his last four starts in North America. His connections decided to bench him after his win all the way back in April to wait for a start in the Fourstardave (G1), but he was scratched because of a foot bruise. This is why you strike when the iron is hot and run. Now he will wait to run in the Woodbine Mile (G1) in September. Likely will drop after this weekend.

3. Cogburn. He's undefeated this season with a 2-for-2 record. In his last start, he scored a win in the Jaipur (G1) and set a record time, albeit on an exceptionally fast surface. Not since Stormy Liberal a few years ago has a turf sprinter held such a high ranking. It's worth noting that a turf sprinter can contend for an Eclipse Award in this division, as demonstrated by Stormy Liberal in 2018. Will have to run soon or he will drop.

4. Measured Time. Dominated the Manhattan (G1) in his first start in this country. It was the first Grade 1 win for this son of Frankel. Finally gets back to the races this weekend in the Sword Dancer (G1) at Saratoga where he will face Silver Knott.

5. Silver Knott. 3-for-3 in 2024, all in Grade 2 events, the last being the Bowling Green at Saratoga. Will try and win his first Grade 1 event this weekend in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga. A win could rocket him to the top of the division.

Next 5: Carl Spackler, Nation's Pride, Naval Power, Du Jour, Integration

Turf females

1. Didia. Her last race in the Diana (G1) was somewhat disappointing, finishing fourth to Whitebeam, beaten by just over a length. But before that, she impressed with a strong win over a very good field in the New York Stakes (G1). Her season began with a victory in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January, followed by a third-place finish in the Jenny Wiley (G1) in April.

2. Anisette. Scored an easy win defeating an overmatched field in the Yellow Ribbon (G2) last time out at Del Mar. She's 2-for-2 on the season, with her other win coming in the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita on Memorial Day. Now she will have one more race prior to the Breeders' Cup, where the Mile or Filly & Mare Turf are options. Since arriving in the country last season, she is 6-for-8, including five graded-stakes victories.

3. Whitebeam. Broke though in a big way last out to win the Diana over the deepest field of female turf horses this season. Before this big win, she was runner-up in her prior starts this season, both graded stakes. Will run next in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland in October.

4. War Like Goddess. At age 7, I keep expecting her to slow down, but she just keeps going strong. Most recently, she scored an easy win in the Robert G. Dick Memorial (G3) at Delaware Park. Remarkably, she will contend for an Eclipse in this division for the fourth consecutive season. Will run next in the Flower Bowl (G2) on the last day of August at Saratoga.

5. Chili Flag. Disappointed in the Diana, finishing ninth after winning three in a row going in. The Just a Game (G1) winner on Belmont Stakes weekend still deserves to reside here in the top five. Will also wait for the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland in October.

Next 5:  Moira, Beaute Cachee, McKulick, Iscreamuscrem, Fev Rover

Male sprinters

1. The Chosen Vron. This guy just keeps winning. He has a remarkable record by today's standards with 19 wins from 24 starts. Eighteen of this wins have come in stakes races. Last out he ran the best and fastest race of his career, speed-figure-wise, in the Bing Crosby (G1), winning that event for the second year in a row. He runs again this weekend on the Pat O'Brien (G2), where he will face Señor Buscador. The O'Brien would be his seventh straight win, and if he keeps winning he not only will get consideration for the sprint Eclipse, but also the older male Eclipse given the state of that division.

2. Nakatomi. Scored a nice win when defeating Skelly in the Vanderbilt (G1) last out at Saratoga for his first victory of 2024. Previously he had run third in both of his starts.

3. Skelly. Runner-up to Nakatomi in the Vanderbilt last out, he has lost two in a row. Has won three races this year but only one graded stakes, the Count Fleet (G3) at Oaklawn.

4. Gun Pilot. Failed as the favorite in the True North (G2) on Belmont Stakes weekend, finishing third. But previously scored his first stakes win in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), defeating a few ranked below. Runs in the Forego (G1) this weekend at Saratoga.

5. Baby Yoda. Disappointed in the Vanderbilt when off the board, but this 6-year-old veteran scored a six-length win in the True North (G2) before that.

Next 5: Closethegame Sugar, Super Chow, Happy Jack, Hoist the Gold, Mullikin

Female sprinters

1. Vahva. Scored an impressive win in the Chicago (G3) at Churchill Downs, running down Society in the stretch last out. Before this latest win she bested Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1) in early May, posting a facile two-length win after finishing runner-up to that rival in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in April. Runs this weekend in the Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga.

2. Alva Starr. Was 3-for-4 on the season, including a win in the Madison (G1). She was runner up to Vahva in the Derby City Distaff (G1) as well. Although she suffered a catastrophic injury during training and had to be euthanized, she still is among the top three in this division as of now and would be on Eclipse ballots.

3. Sweet Azteca. She is ranked here because two of her big wins this year were sprinting. She returned to the races sprinting in the Great Lady M (G2) and scored another win. She is entered in the Rancho Bernardo (G3) on Sunday at Del Mar.

4. Way and Means. Scored an impressive win in the Test (G1) last time out for her first stakes win.

5. Spirit Wind. Defeated Accede and Clearly Unhinged last out in the Honorable Miss (G2) at Saratoga. Before that big win she won a sprint stakes at Lone Star.

Next 5: Society, Accede, Clearly Unhinged, Red Carpet Ready, Almostgone Rocket

The Travers goes through Dornoch

Make no mistake, Dornoch is the horse to beat in this weekend’s Travers. After his impressive victories in the Belmont and Haskell against many of the top contenders in his division, he rightfully deserves top billing.

What sets Dornoch apart is his tenacity in the stretch. If he’s leading as they turn for home, the new and improved Dornoch will fend off any challengers. He finds another gear and gets the job done, showing the kind of heart that endears him to fans of the sport.

Waiting to challenge Dornoch in the Travers is Fierceness. Fresh off an impressive Jim Dandy win, Fierceness has proven he has the talent to compete with the best in this division. But questions remain. Can he string together two strong performances? Can he excel at the 10-furlong distance of the Travers? The jury is still out, but a win this weekend could silence many critics.

Sierra Leone has been the most consistent performer in his class. After securing two spring victories in the Risen Star (G2) and Blue Grass (G1), he narrowly missed adding the Kentucky Derby (G1) to his resume. He followed those with a close loss to Dornoch the Belmont and then to Fierceness in the Jim Dandy.

Sierra Leone is known for his stretch-running quirks, often lugging in and affecting his results. But in his last outing in the Jim Dandy, he ran straight and still fell just short. Despite that, it was an encouraging performance, and the 10 furlongs of the Travers should play to his strengths.

Many are backing the lone filly in the race, Thorpedo Anna. Dominating the 3-year-old female division by a wide margin, Thorpedo Anna has racked up four consecutive wins, although against a relatively weak crop of 3-year-old fillies this season.

I understand the excitement. Seeing females take on the males in this sport is always thrilling, especially on dirt, where it’s a rare occurrence. But for every successful attempt, like Swiss Skydiver’s victory in the 2020 Preakness, there are just as many disappointments.

Take Untapable, for example. She was a 3-year-old filly as highly regarded as Thorpedo Anna who was the heavy favorite in the Haskell after four big wins, only to finish up the track. For every Rachel Alexandra or Swiss Skydiver triumph, there are also the failures of Untapable, Meadow Star, Silverbulletday and Excellent Meeting. All were just as or more highly regarded as Thorpedo Anna at the time of their attempt against the colts.

The key to the fillies' success in these scenarios has been their ability to run as fast or faster than the top males in the field prior to their attempt. Thorpedo Anna, however, has yet to produce a performance that matches the best of three of the male contenders. In fact, several colts in the race have consistently been equal to or faster than her. 

As much as I’d love to see the filly triumph over the males, I have a hard time picturing her in the winner’s circle on Saturday. It’s certainly possible, but it would require a significant career-best effort from Thorpedo Anna, along with a subpar performance from several of the colts.

No matter which horse comes away victorious on Saturday, each story will be compelling. The filly will certainly be the crowd favorite, but a win by Dornoch would be historic, making him the first since Point Given in 2001 to capture the Belmont, Haskell and Travers in succession. A victory for Fierceness would be significant as well, breaking his win-one, lose-one pattern and delivering a big moment for his connections and fans. Sierra Leone's win would be equally meaningful, finally rewarding the patience of his supporters as he claims the big victory they've long believed was within his reach.

Personally, I'm siding with Sierra Leone this weekend. I believe it’s his time. Although Dornoch will be tough to beat, Sierra Leone has shown me no reason to doubt that he’ll be right there at the finish. I also expect the real Fierceness to show up, though I have some concerns about the distance for him. And as a long shot, don’t overlook Honor Marie. He’s fresh and ready, and he wasn’t far off his rivals in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont.