Division rankings: Dornoch, Thorpedo Anna impress again
This week, I want to acknowledge Dornoch, a horse I've been slow to warm up to and whom I didn't consider a serious contender in his division until now.
In Saturday’s Grade 1 Haskell, Dornoch displayed the grit and heart that endears a racehorse to me. He showed his stubbornness in the stretch of a big race, snatching victory when it looked like he would be defeated. The Haskell was a repeat of his performance in the Belmont, validating that win after he struggled in major divisional races during the spring.
Make no mistake, Dornoch is the hottest horse in the 3-year-old male division.
On the female side, Thorpedo Anna continued to dominate a division that lacks depth, though that's not her fault. Many are eager for her connections to race her against males in the Travers (G1), but she is better suited to compete in her own division in the prestigious Alabama (G1) at 10 furlongs for several reasons, which I'll discuss below.
First, let's take a look at my updated division rankings.
Older dirt males
1. National Treasure. Dominant in the Met Mile (G1), he now leads this division. He will return to New York from his California home base for the Whitney (G1) in August at Saratoga. For now, he must be ranked at the top.
2. Señor Buscador. His record this year has been impressive. He started the season with a close second-place finish to National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in January. He followed that with a victory in the Saudi Cup (G1) in February and a third-place finish in the Dubai World Cup (G1) in March. Now, the focus is on preparing for the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar in late August.
3. Kingsbarns. Very impressive in the Stephen Foster (G1) as he scored his first Grade 1 win. With two graded-stakes wins on the season, this son of Uncle Mo most certainly can contend for the Eclipse in this division. The Whitney in August is possible for his next start, if not the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) on Sept. 1.
4.
5. Next. With only two starts this season, he has been dominant in both. Most recently, he won the Brooklyn (G2) at 11 furlongs, and before that he scored a win in a listed stakes at 12 furlongs. His win streak now stands at five, and although he hasn't yet faced top competition, he deserves a shot in a Grade 1, 1 1/4-mile race such as the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 1.
Next 5: Pyrenees, Bright Future, Skippylongstocking, Tapit Trice, Newgate
Older dirt females
1. Idiomatic. She returned to the winner's circle in her last race, the
Molly Pitcher (G3), with a narrow victory after setting a very slow pace.
Despite the win, there are concerns for her supporters. She was allowed a
nearly 1:14 opening six furlongs but struggled to put away an overmatched
field, winning by a head. While she still leads the division, there are
questions about whether her best days are behind her, as her speed figures have
declined. All three of her starts this year have been slower than her last six
starts last season. Her schedule for the rest of the season is set. She will
race next in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga on Aug. 23, a race she won
last year, and then conclude her season with the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland and
the Breeders' Cup Distaff at Del Mar, both of which she also won last year.
2. Randomized. She delivered a stellar performance in the Ogden Phipps (G1), upsetting Idiomatic. Last fall, she nearly pulled off an upset against the same rival in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. Her season record stands at 1-for-2.
3. Adare Manor. Another start, another win for this mare. Most recently, she triumphed in the Santa Margarita (G2) at Santa Anita. Before that, she made an appearance outside her home state of California, winning impressively by more than five lengths in the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn. She now boasts a record of 2-for-3 this season. Will run next in the Clement Hirsch (G1) in early August.
4. Sweet Azteca. She returned to the races sprinting in the Great Lady M (G2) and scored another win. Now 4-for-5 in her career, she likely will stay sprinting for her next start, the Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga.
5. Scylla. This daughter of Tapit has risen through these ranks steadily and now has won her last three starts. Last out she scored a narrow win in the Fleur de Lis Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. She is 5-for-7 in her career and hasn't been off the board yet.
Next 5: Pretty Mischievous, Raging Sea, Honor D Lady, Shotgun Hottie, Coffee in Bed
3-year-old males
1. Dornoch. I'll admit it, I was wrong about this colt. He's shown
qualities on the track that have won me over, especially his gameness. He's
really stepped up his game and clearly doesn't like to be passed when he has
the lead in the stretch. With two consecutive big wins in the Belmont and
Haskell, he now sits atop this division. If he can win the Travers in his next
start, he'll be the first since Point Given in 2001 to sweep the Belmont,
Haskell and Travers.
2. Mystik Dan. He faltered in the Belmont, but he remains at the top because of his achievements in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. He also earns credit in my view for consistently showing up and competing, a quality few of the contenders below him can claim. Would be surprised to see him return to the races this season. Will drop in the coming weeks because of inactivity.
3. Sierra Leone. He again ran a stellar race and again failed to run straight in the stretch when finishing third in the Belmont. Would be favored in a race against any horse in his division. Will be favored in this weekend's Jim Dandy (G2).
4. Forever Young. With one start in this country, this guy is ranked here even though he was likely the best horse who ran in the Kentucky Derby. Now 5-for-6 on his career, he globetrotted his way to Kentucky with wins this year in two countries already.Although it seems unlikely we'll see him in the U.S. again soon, the Breeders' Cup remains a possibility. Will drop in the coming weeks because of inactivity.
5 Seize the Grey After an easy victory in the Preakness, he faded to a seventh-place finish in the Belmont. It's likely a break is needed after already competing six times this season. The Travers (G1) is the next target after a start in the Jim Dandy (G2) this weekend.
Next 5: Fierceness, Mindframe, Muth, Batten Down, Catching Freedom
3-year-old fillies
1. Thorpedo Anna. She secured another win over her divisional rivals, this time in the CCA Oaks (G1), winning by just over four lengths. With three Grade 1 victories this season, she likely has secured the Eclipse Award for her division. Although her connections might be tempted to race her against males in the Travers for her next start, let's hope they resist that temptation, as she probably would be overmatched. The Alabama (G1) should be her next race.
2. Candied. Ran a good race when runner-up to the No. 1-ranked Thorpedo Anna in the CCA Oaks. Before that, she won the listed Ladyt's Secret Stakes at Monmouth.
3. Tarifa. Up the track in the Kentucky Oaks, but perhaps she disliked the off track. Still, with two graded-stakes wins this season, Tarifa stays in the top five here.
4. Sugar Fish. Came out of nowhere and dominated the Summertime Oaks (G2) to win by over nine lengths. This gal was coming off an optional-claimer win and before that broke her maiden in an optional claimer.
5. Nothing Like You. Finished a distant second to Sugar Fish last out in the Summertime Oaks at Santa Anita. This came after dominating the Santa Anita Oaks (G2), winning by more than seven lengths.
Next 5: Power Squeeze, Leslie's Rose, Kinza, Regulatory Risk, Ways and Means
Turf males
1. Master of The Seas. He won the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) impressively in his last outing, adding to his tally of three Grade 1 victories in his last four starts in North America. But his absence until August means he will drop from his current position. Although he currently holds the top spot, I'm disappointed that his connections have decided to rest him for four months, with his next start scheduled for the Fourstardave (G1) on Aug. 10.
2. Cogburn. He's undefeated this season with a 2-for-2 record. In his last start, he scored a win in the Jaipur (G1) and set a record time, albeit on an exceptionally fast surface. Not since Stormy Liberal a few years ago has a turf sprinter held such a high ranking. It's worth noting that a turf sprinter can contend for an Eclipse Award in this division, as demonstrated by Stormy Liberal in 2018. Cogburn is firmly in the mix for this year's Eclipse honors.
3. Measured Time. Dominated the Manhattan (G1) in his first start in this country. It was the first Grade 1 win for this son of Frankel.
4. Program Trading. Disappointed in the Manhattan when off the board after making his seasonal debut a winning one in the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby weekend.
5. Naval Power. This guy is 6-for-9 in his career, and this year he just missed when runner-up in two Grade 1 events stateside, the last being the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs. Won a Group 2 event in Dubai earlier this season.
Next 5: Johannes, Du Jour, Silver Knott, Nation's Pride, Gold Phoenix
Turf females
1. Didia. Her last race in the Diana (G1) was somewhat disappointing, finishing fourth to Whitebeam, beaten by just over a length. But before that, she impressed with a strong win over a very good field in the New York Stakes (G1). Her season began with a victory in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January, followed by a third-place finish in the Jenny Wiley (G1) in April. She remains at the top in a very competitive division.
2. Whitebeam. Broke though in a big way last out to win the Diana over the deepest field of female turf horses this season. Before this big win, she was runner-up in both of her prior starts this season, both graded stakes.
3. Anisette. She was exceptional in her 2024 debut, winning the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita on Memorial Day. Since arriving in the country last season, she is 5-for-7, including four graded-stakes victories. Regarded as likely the best in the west, she poses a significant threat to ascend to the top of her division later this season.
4. War Like Goddess. At age 7, I keep expecting her to slow down, but she just keeps going strong. Most recently, she scored an easy win in the Robert G. Dick Memorial (G3) at Delaware Park. Remarkably, she will contend for an Eclipse in this division for the fourth consecutive season.
5. Chili Flag. Disappointed in the Diana (G1), finishing ninth after winning three in a row going in. The Just a Game (G1) winner on Belmont Stakes weekend still deserves to reside here in the top five.
Next 5: Beautee Cachee, Neecie Marie, English Rose, McKulick, Surge Capacity
Male sprinters
1. Skelly. Was stunned last time out in the Aristides at Churchill Downs when runner-up by a length to Closethegame Sugar. Previously he dominated the listed Lake Hamilton. Has won nine of his last 11 starts. Big one this weekend for this guy as he will run in the Vanderbilt (G1) at Saratoga, where a win would go a long way toward his Eclipse hopes in this division.
2. The Chosen Vron. He scored another win, this time in the Thor's Echo Stakes at Santa Anita. This marks his fifth consecutive win since his loss in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall. With an impressive record of 18 wins from 23 career starts, he leads the way in the west in his division. The main question for him in 2024 will be whether he can compete with the elite in this division. Although he might need to show more speed, he is enjoying a successful streak in California. Is back this weekend and finally gets back to deeper waters in the Big Crosby (G1) against the toughest field has faced since last fall's Breeders' Cup Sprint. A win coupled with a Skelly loss would send him to the top spot in the division.
3. Gun Pilot. Failed as the favorite in the True North (G2) on Belmont Stakes weekend, finishing third. But previously scored his first stakes win in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), defeating a few ranked below.
4. Baby Yoda. This 6-year-old veteran scored a six-length win in the True North (G2) last time out. This was his first graded-stakes win in his 25-start career. Can he win two in a row? We will see this weekend as he will take on Skelly in the Vanderbilt.
5. Post Time. Ran a distant second to National Treasure in the Met Mile. Still deserves this top-five ranking based on his sprint wins.
Next 5: Nakatomi, Happy Jack, Super Chow, Hoist the Gold, Closethegame Sugar
Female sprinters
1. Vahva. Returned last month ago to score an impressive win in the Chicago (G3) at Churchill Downs, running down Society in the stretch. Before this latest win she bested Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1) in early May, posting a facile two-length win after finishing runner-up to that rival in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in April. Will point to the Ballerina (G1) in August at Saratoga for he next start.
2. Sweet Azteca. She is ranked here because two of her big wins this year were sprinting. She returned to the races sprinting in the Great Lady M (G2) and scored another win. Now she likely will stay sprinting for her next start, the Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga.
3. Society. Made her first start of 2024 in the Chicago (G3) and ran well but faded to third. This gal was fourth in last fall's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and likely needed the race. She should improve next time out. The Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga is the long-term goal.
4. Spirit Wind. Defeated Accede and Clearly Unhinged last out in the Honorable Miss (G2) at Saratoga. Before that big win she won a sprint stakes at Lone Star.
5. Accede. Runner-up last out to Spirit Wind in the Honorable Miss, she previously scored in the Bed o' Roses (G2), this daughter of Into Mischief is 2-for-3 this season.
Next 5: Clearly Unhinged, Flying Connection, Red Carpet Ready, Almostgone Rocket, Dazzling Blue
Thorpedo Anna to the Alabama is the right choice
Last weekend, Dornoch shined in the first of the major
Travers prep races ahead of the Travers on Aug. 24 at Saratoga.
Although this weekend’s Jim Dandy is not a Grade 1 event, its field appears
stronger than last week’s Haskell. But no matter who wins the Jim Dandy,
Dornoch's performance in the Haskell keeps him at the top of the division for
now.
As usual, the Travers will play a crucial role in the
year-end Eclipse voting. A win in the Travers would likely position Dornoch as
the leading candidate for the award. The only downside is the news that Dornoch probably will be retired at the end of his 3-year-old season as his ownership
group has secured a stallion deal with Spendthrift Farm. This means we’ll
likely see only two more races from the son of Good Magic.
On the female side, it would require extraordinary
circumstances to prevent Thorpedo Anna from winning the Eclipse Award. Even
before August, it's clear she has a firm grasp on her division. While many are
eager to see this daughter of Fast Anna race against males in the Travers
rather than the traditional Alabama (G1) at the same 10-furlong distance, I am
not among them.
Thorpedo Anna, while impressive, lags several lengths behind
many of the 3-year-old males expected in the Travers, speed figure-wise. Some
might cite Swiss Skydiver, who was trained by Kenny McPeek, the same trainer as
Thorpedo Anna. Swiss Skydiver raced against males in the 2020 Preakness and defeated
Kentucky Derby winner Authentic. But Swiss Skydiver already had posted
speed figures comparable to the top 3-year-old males that season. At age 3,
she also was faster in her races than Thorpedo Anna.
Some have even included Thorpedo Anna in discussions as one of the best 3-year-old fillies in recent years, which is the typical horse-racing hype around a breakout star we see every season. But I don't understand the rush to elevate her. She still has a long way to go to match the many outstanding 3-year-old fillies we've seen in the last 15 years, including Rachel Alexandra in 2009.
In 2013, Princess of Sylmar captured four straight Grade 1
wins, starting with the Kentucky Oaks. She faltered in the Breeders’ Cup, but
the hype around her was similar to the buzz Thorpedo Anna is receiving now. The
following year, Untapable completed her season on a high note, winning all six
races against females, including the Kentucky Oaks and Breeders’ Cup Distaff.
If I had to choose the best 3-year-old filly since Rachel Alexandra, I would
pick Songbird from 2016. In 2017 Abel Tasman won the same trio of Grade 1
events that Thorpedo Anna has recently achieved, but Abel Tasman was much
faster. In 2018, Monomoy Girl already had won four Grade 1 races by this point
in her 3-year-old season, and many came at the expense of Midnight Bisou, an outstanding filly in her own right. All of these fillies had much faster speed figures
than Thorpedo Anna.
You get the idea. We've been fortunate to witness many stars
in the 3-year-old filly division in recent years, yet we seem quick to forget
their brilliance and the impact they had on the racetrack.
This isn't intended to diminish Thorpedo Anna's
accomplishments, but rather to remind us not to forget the fillies mentioned
above and to maybe pump the brakes a bit here. The above fillies all received similar praise during their seasons, with some fading
toward the end and others continuing to excel and earning their place in the
Hall of Fame.
Thorpedo Anna still has time on her side. With a strong
finish to her season, she could certainly join or even surpass some of the
great fillies mentioned above.