Division rankings: Dirt male divisions are wide open

Last week, I shared my thoughts about the horses I consider to have a realistic chance at winning the Eclipse award in the 3-year-old filly and older dirt female divisions. This week, I shift my focus to the male divisions.

The current frontrunner in the 3-year-old male division, Arcangelo, stands a strong chance of securing the Eclipse Award, regardless of what happens in the Breeders' Cup Classic. I'll examine potential scenarios shortly.

Meanwhile, the situation in the older dirt male division is chaotic. Without a clear standout, multiple contenders could stake their claim for the Eclipse Award with victories on Breeders' Cup Day.

Before I get into these two divisions, let's take a look at this week's updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Cody's Wish. Got back in the winners circle Sunday in the Grade 2 Vosburgh but had to work for his win going off at 1-9 odds. In a historically weak season for this division, what other horse can reside here at this point? The answer is none. This guy controls his Eclipse fate no matter what any other in this division does for the remainder of the season. Despite his setback in the Whitney (G1), he maintains his position at the top because none of the others boasts a resume strong enough to challenge him. He will set his sights on securing victory in the Breeders' Cup Mile for the second consecutive year. Achieving that feat would win the Eclipse award in this division.

2. White Abarrio. It speaks volumes about this division when I'm ranking a horse this high despite his having only one stakes win in his last nine starts spanning 16 months. His impressive victory in the Whitney came under the tutelage of his new trainer, Rick Dutrow Jr., who has returned to the scene after a 10-year suspension. Notably, White Abarrio has delivered career-best speed figures in his two outings since joining Dutrow's stable. Now White Abarrio will focus his preparations on the Breeders' Cup Classic. Can he secure an Eclipse award with only two stakes wins? My answer is no. Given that resume, he won't receive my vote. He will be a big underlay and long shot at Santa Anita, in my opinion.

3. Zandon. Finally got his first win of the season in last week's Woodward (G2) as he closed to win going away. Before that he finished runner-up three times in graded stakes, the last two being the Met Mile and the Whitney, both Grade 1s. Will target the Breeders' Cup Classic next and will be the best older male with a chance to win.

4. Proxy. This guy has two graded-stakes wins from six starts this year and ran well last out, almost overcoming a ridiculously slow pace in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) when losing by a nose. So by default, he sits here at No. 4. Likely will run next in the Breeders' Cup Classic and be a long shot.

5. Bright Future. The winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, he was allowed to set tepid fractions that no doubt helped him in his first stakes win. If he runs in the Breeders' Cup Classic he, too, has little chance to come away with the win, in my opinion.

Next 5: Slow Down Andy, Defunded, Senor Buscador, Smile Happy, Skippylongstocking

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Facile winner of the Spinster (G1) last time out, she has won her last four graded stakes starts, two of which were Grade 1. Overall she is 7-for-8 on the season and has taken a hold of this division.

2. Clairiere. Was beaten with no excuses two back by Nest and then last out she ran a clunker in the slop in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga. She maintains this top spot because she has run in and won several big events this season. What happens in the prior six months matters to me in this sport, and Clairiere has shown up for all of the previous big events this division had to offer this year, winning two Grade 1s, the most of any in this division. She still controls her own Eclipse fate and will train up to the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

3. Adare Manor. Dominated again in a graded race, this time in the Zenyatta (G1) at Santa Anita. The best of the west is now 5-for-6 on the season and will start next in the Breeders' Cup Distaff at her home base of Santa Anita. No matter what happens with the top two, if this gal wins the Breeders' Cup Distaff, the Eclipse will be hers.

4. Search Results. Got her first win of the year last out in the Locust Grove (G3) at Churchill Downs. Grade 1 placed two times earlier this year.

5. Secret Oath. The winner of the Azeri (G2) earlier this season, she has been runner-up in three Grade 1 events in 2023, including the Personal Ensign last out. Was retired because of injury.

Next 5: Nest, Played Hard, Fun to Dream, Pauline's Pearl, A Mo Reay.

3-year-old males

1. Arcangelo. He was super impressive in the Travers (G1), defeating a quality field. Validating his Belmont win was critical, and he did that and more. Now he will train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic. He will face an even stiffer test at Santa Anita, but a win in the Classic will secure not only the Eclipse in this division, but horse of the year.

2. Arabian Knight. In February this guy was among the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. After his Southwest Stakes (G3) win, he was put on the shelf and didn't return until the Haskell (G1) in July, where he finished third. He obviously needed the race. Last out he was all heart in winning the Pacific Classic (G1) over older and fellow 3-year-olds. He also will train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic run over his home track of Santa Anita. He would be the horse to beat and should get even better in his third start off that layoff.

3. Geaux Rocket Ride. Was narrowly defeated in the Pacific Classic, but he lost nothing in defeat. The Haskell winner will be one of the horses to beat in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He too will train up to the race.

4. Forte. Disappointed in the Travers (G1), finishing fourth, beaten eight lengths. No way to spin the loss, no excuses. Considering that was his first subpar race we have seen in over a year, I will give him a mulligan. He will train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic as well and will be a horse you can't discount.

5. Mage. Finished last in the Travers, but he gets a mulligan off of that effort considering what he has done prior. He's also expected to train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic, where a win there would garner him the Eclipse in this division.

Next 5: Angel of Empire, National Treasure, Saudi Crown, Disarm, Practical Move

3-year-old females

1. Pretty Mischievous. She nearly caught the loose on the lead winner of the Cotillion (G1), Ceiling Crusher but had to settle for the runner-up spot. She didn't lose much luster and has this Eclipse sewn up, in my opinion. She won the Acorn (G1) and the Kentucky Oaks (G1).

2. Wet Paint. She was runner-up in the Alabama (G1) won by the loose-on-the-lead Randomized. Previously she got the job done in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), defeating four others. I still believe she is among the best in this division. Stuck behind loose-on-the lead types two of the last three races.

3. Randomized. She won her first graded race when wiring the Alabama over the summer after finishing sixth in the Acorn on Belmont Stakes day. She beat older last out in the Beldame (G2).

4. Ceiling Crusher. Won the Cotillion (G1) last out, securing her first Grade 1 win. Prior to the Cotillion she won the Torrey Pines (G3) at Del Mar. She's not Breeders' Cup nominated and is unlikely to run in the Distaff.

5. Defining Purpose. Off the board in the Cotillion last out, but did win the Ashland (G1) and Indiana Oaks (G3) earlier this season and was third in the Alabama (G1).

Next 5: Occult, Faiza, Hoosier Philly, Dorth Vader, Window Shopping

Turf males

1. Up to the Mark. Finally made it back the races, and it was worth the wait. He was very impressive winning the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland in his first start since June. In June he was superb winning the Manhattan (G1) at Belmont Park. This guy now has three Grade 1 wins on the year and the Eclipse in the bag, no matter what happens the rest of the season.

2. Casa Creed. Closed stoutly last out in the Fourstardave (G1) to defeat Annapolis in a really impressive effort. A 7-year-old, he is in the best form of his career after winning his last two starts and could be a contender in the Breeders' Cup Mile if he maintains this form. He will train up to that race.

3. Master of the Seas. Two starts in North America and two good races. He was runner-up to Up to the Mark in the Turf Mile (G1) and before that he scored a win in the Woodbine Mile (G1).

4. Bolshoi Ballet. Ran them off their feet in the Sword Dancer (G1) last time out, and that alone bumps him this high, considering the state of this division. Before the Sword Dancer he was winless in four starts overseas.

5. Exaulted. He was a tough-luck runner-up last out in the Del Mar Mile (G2) but before that he was 4-for-4 since being moved to grass from dirt. Won the Shoemaker Mile (G1) earlier this season and is a Breeders' Cup Mile contender.

Next 5: Gold Phoenix, Hong Kong Harry, Nation's Pride, Set Piece,  Annapolis

Turf females

1. In Italian. Runner-up again, this time in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland. Still, she does have two grade 1 wins on the season, and still a resume worth keeping her at the top. 

2. War Like Goddess. Scored a big win over the males again when winning the Joe Hirsch (G1) for the second year in a row. She doesn't have as good of a resume this year as in the previous seasons, but she is most certainly in this Eclipse race yet again.

3. Whitebeam. Didn't fire when off the board in the First Lady (G1). Previously she upset In Italian in the Diana for her first Grade 1 win and second graded-stakes victory overall. Before the Diana she won the Gallorette (G3) on Preakness day at Pimlico. Was flattered by Fev Rover's Beverly D. (G1) win as that one finished third in the Diana.

4. Caravel. Defeated last out when facing males in the Troy Stakes (G3) at Saratoga, which was run on a soft turf because of the rain. Both of her prior graded-stakes wins this season have come over males, so this last loss was a disappointment. Will run this weekend in the Franklin Stakes (G2).

5. Fev Rover. Scored a nice win in the E.P. Taylor (G1) last out. Previously she was fourth in the Canadian (G2) Stakes and prior to that she impressed in the Beverly D. (G1) for her second win this season. Earlier this season she was third to Whitebeam and In Italian in the Diana.

Next 5: Didia, Gina Romantica, Moira, Closing Remarks, McKulick

Male sprinters

1. Elite Power. Reigning sprint champ was upset by Gunite in the Forego (G1) after the latter again was allowed to get away with slow fractions. He's still the best in this division by a wide margin, and he will head to the Breeders' Cup Sprint with an eye on a repeat win and another Eclipse. But he's in the same boat as Jackie's Warrior last year, when the latter dominated this division for three-quarters of the season only to lose the Eclipse because of late-season voting bias. He has defeated Gunite in two of their three meetings this season.

2. Cody's Wish. He has one Grade 1 sprint race win this year, the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), and after his loss in the Whitney he rebounded with a win in the Vosburgh (G2). Though it will never happen, an Elite Power vs. Cody's Wish Breeders' Cup Sprint would steal the show. Will run next in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

3. Gunite. He was defeated last out when stretching out to a mile in the Parx Dirt Mile, finishing runner-up. Defeated Elite Power in a major upset in the Forego (G1) previously, but that was his first graded-stakes win this season.

4. The Chosen Vron. He won the Bing Crosby (G1) last out for his eighth straight win, and the previous seven wins all were listed stakes. This California-bred gelding loves sprinting and belongs here for now.

5. Anarchist. He won the Pat O'Brien (G2) after previously finishing runner-up to The Chosen Vron in the Bing Crosby. This guy has put together a good record this year, running eight times and never finishing worse than second. Has two graded-stakes wins in 2023.

Next 5: Dr. Schivel, Speed Boat Beach, Sibelius, Repo Rocks, Doppelganger

Female sprinters

1. Echo Zulu. Folks, this isn't hyperbole. Though her resume is somewhat light, I believe this is the best female sprinter we have seen in over 20 years. She is clearly the fastest speed-figure wise, and she dominated last year's Eclipse winner, Goodnight Olive, in the Ballerina (G1) last out. Now her connections likely will target the Breeders' Cup Sprint against the males. No sprinter, male or female, has run as fast as this gal in 2023. She's 3-for-3 this season, and she hasn't been tested.

2. Goodnight Olive. She ran her race in the Ballerina but faced a monster in Echo Zulu. The Eclipse winner from last season started her season with a win in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland. Will train up to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

3. Matareya. Filly won the Derby City Distaff (G1) three starts back, defeating Goodnight Olive. Last time out she finished third in the Ballerina. Is capable of big efforts.

4. Society. She rebounded from a rough start to her season with a 10-length win over Matareya in the Chicago Stakes (G3). Before that she was ninth in the La Troienne (G1) and third in the Madison (G1). Perhaps she is a player in this division? Not sure. She won the listed Pink Ribbon Stakes at Charles Town last time out.

5. Wicked Halo. Runner-up again in the Bed o' Roses (G2) earlier this year to Goodnight Olive, she then won a listed stakes at Ellis Park. Finished second last out to Yuugirl in the Thoroughbred Club of Ameerica (G2). 

Next 5: Yuugirl, Frank's Rockette, Fun to Dream, Sterling Silver, Maryquitecontrary

2-year-old males

1. Prince of Monaco. He won the Del Mar Futurity (G3) last week to stay unbeaten in three starts. He likely will be the Breeders' Cup Juvenile favorite on his home track of Santa Anita, but I am of the opinion he will be an underlay and fired his best shot in this last race. He also looked a little off to me on the right side when switching leads in the stretch. Will train up to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

2. Muth. This guy was the favorite for the Hopeful but was scratched and ran in  the American Pharoah (G1) last out at Santa Anita where he scored a nice win.
3. Timberlake. The beaten favorite in the Hopeful, he finished runner-up to Nutella Fella. Scored a nice win the Champagne (G1) at Belmont in the slop last out.

4. Nutella Fella. He won the Hopeful (G1) last out at 54-1 odds and is 2-for-2 so far in his career. Will be out until spring because of a hairline fracture.

5. Locked. Won the Breeders' Futurity (G1) last out fir his first stakes win. Next 5: Mirahmadi, The Wine Steward, West Saratoga, Gold Sweep, Pirate

2-year-old females

1. Tamara. This daughter of Beholder won the Del Mar Debutante (G1) rather easily for her second win in as many starts. She no doubt gets a bump in her reputation given her pedigree and likely will be the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

2. Brightwork. Disappointed when fifth in the Alcibiades (G1) last time out. She stays in the top five here based off of her previous four wins this season.

3. Candied. Won the Alicibiades (G1) in just her second start, defeating Brightwork, among others.

4. Just F Y I. Impressive Frizette (G1) winner in just the second start of her career.
5. Ways and Means. The heavy favorite in the Spinaway (G1) after winning her maiden race impressively, she was defeated by Brightwork. Now done racing this season because of a chipped ankle.

Next 5: Chatalas, VV's Dream, Dreamfyre, Dua, Here U Come Again

Sorting out the 3-year-old, older male divisions

There's no denying that the spotlight is firmly on the 3-year-olds as we approach this year's Breeders' Cup Classic. Arcangelo, who’s last two wins were the Belmont and Travers, is poised to be a top contender, not only for the Breeders' Cup Classic but also for the Eclipse Award in his division and Horse of the Year.

Arabian Knight, winner of the Pacific Classic, is in contention, and his chances hinge on winning the Breeders' Cup Classic. Nevertheless, even a victory might not guarantee him enough votes. If, for instance, his win mirrors his previous Pacific Classic, with Arcangelo coming close but falling short, I believe that voters will still favor Arcangelo for the Eclipse Award because his better body of work throughout the season, a viewpoint I share.

Geaux Rocket Ride is unquestionably a strong contender. A victory in the Breeders' Cup Classic should secure him the Eclipse Award, especially considering his earlier win in the Haskell this season.

Now, what about Kentucky Derby winner Mage? Although he hasn't won a race since the Kentucky Derby, a win in the Breeders' Cup Classic would almost certainly earn him the Eclipse Award.

Beyond these four contenders, it's tough to envision another scenario for any other horse. As for Forte's fans, even if he were to win the Breeders' Cup Classic, it might not be enough. Although he would boast two Grade 1 wins, including the Florida Derby in the spring, he would have lost two of his three head-to-head matchups against Arcangelo. As much as I admire Forte, I believe his chances for the Eclipse Award have faded.

Characterizing the older dirt male division as chaotic might be an understatement. Currently, Cody's Wish holds the top spot, primarily because of the lack of other deserving contenders. Notably, no older male has secured multiple grade 1 wins around two turns on the dirt in 2023.

For me, the equation is quite straightforward. If Cody's Wish secures a back-to-back victory in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, he likely will claim the Eclipse Award in this division.

Regarding the other contenders, I'm going to venture outside the box and suggest that if Elite Power wins the Breeders' Cup Sprint, he could certainly garner votes in this division, even though he's primarily a sprinter.

As for White Abarrio, his impressive win in the Whitney for his new trainer is noteworthy. But he would need to win the Breeders' Cup Classic, with Cody's Wish losing, and hope that voters won't hold a bias against his trainer, whose suspension followed numerous medication and administrative violations. To some extent, I understand their reservations.

Zandon recently won his first race of the season against a questionable Woodward (G2) field. A victory in the Classic won't be enough to secure the Eclipse Award.

Bright Future managed to win a historically weak Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) for his first stakes win. A Classic win would be surprising, and although he might gain support, I personally wouldn't be among those supporters. It seems too little, too late.

But what if all the aforementioned contenders falter on Breeders' Cup day? I'll address that scenario if and when it unfolds. Historically, I've been hesitant to vote for a horse that ships in to win a Breeders' Cup race in their sole North American start.

However, if Dubai World Cup winner Ushba Tesoro, as I suspect, arrives from Japan and triumphs in the Breeders' Cup Classic, he might indeed earn my vote, because, let's face it, who else would be worthy enough?