Division rankings: Let's cut through Kentucky Derby noise

Finally, Derby week is here, and not a moment too soon. Plenty of people revel in the annual pre-Derby hype storm, but I’m just counting down the days until it blows over and the real racing season can finally get underway. 

Still, the reality is the Kentucky Derby remains one of the few races where sharp eyes can find real wagering opportunities. History has shown it’s a race where chaos can meet value, and the right call can turn a good day into a career highlight. 

The Kentucky Derby’s been kind to me over the years, delivering some of my biggest wagering scores. Over a decade ago, a local radio host pinned the "Dr. Derby" nickname on me after a hot streak that saw me land on Super Saver, Animal Kingdom and I’ll Have Another in consecutive years. The more recent editions have been OK. Forever Young was flat-out robbed last year, Angel of Empire ran a close third the year before, and Medina Spirit was the last to truly hit the bullseye for me. The Derby and I have a good history. 

As I’ve said before, the Kentucky Derby journey doesn’t start for me in May, it starts months earlier. You know the feeling, you find that one horse that just clicks and you’re locked in, no second-guessing. Nyquist, Medina Spirit and Forever Young were those horses for me in recent years. Of course, other years, you’re scrambling like a last-minute shopper, trying to find a horse to believe in the week of the race. 

This year’s one of those rare times where I don’t have a strong opinion. But I have landed on a horse or two nonetheless, and let’s just say my picks might raise a few eyebrows. 

First, let’s take a look at the 3-year-old male rankings below. It's a list that’s almost guaranteed to get a shake-up by this time next week. And just a reminder that these aren’t Kentucky Derby rankings. These rankings are built with the whole season and the Eclipse Awards in mind.

3-year-old males

1. Journalism. He did exactly what he needed to do in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, showing grit and class as he reeled in the game newcomer Baeza late. It was a performance worthy of a Kentucky Derby favorite. Although it might not have been a lights-out win, it was professional, and he’s clearly trending the right way. He’ll head to the Kentucky Derby starting gate with momentum and plenty of buzz, though a few of the contenders ranked below him aren't as far behind him as I once thought.

2. Sovereignty. He fell short in the Florida Derby (G1), but his late run ensured he lost no momentum on the road to Churchill. Tappan Street had his measure that day, but with a stakes win already under the twin spires, he’ll be a major player when it matters most.

3. Sandman. He finally found his stride, breaking through with his first stakes win in the Arkansas Derby (G1) thanks to a pace that set him up perfectly. But for all his experience with eight starts under his belt, he still looked a bit green in the stretch. Would be surprised if he came away with the roses.

4. Burnham Square. The good news? He returned to the winner’s circle with a Blue Grass (G1) victory. The bad news? They crawled home late, and the way he finished did little to convince me that 10 furlongs is in his wheelhouse. That said, his body of work this season earns him a spot this high. Whether he stays there after Derby day is another story.

5. Tappan Street. The Florida Derby winner in just his third career start, he was runner-up to Burnham Square in the Holy Bull (G3) one race prior. Will miss the Kentucky Derby because of injury.

Next 7: Rodriguez, Tiztastic, Baeza, Coal Battle, American Promise, Final Gambit, Grande

My current no. 1 in the 3-year-old male division, Journalism, enters the Derby as the deserving favorite and the most likely winner. No surprise there. What did surprise me, though, was just how much trouble he ran into in the Santa Anita Derby. If you haven’t seen the overhead replay, do yourself a favor and watch it. The fact he still won despite all that traffic tells me he’s more than capable of handling this field. 

It’s a sharp contrast from last year, when I faded the Derby favorite and top-ranked 3-year-old, Fierceness, without hesitation. Journalism? He’s a far tougher case to poke holes in. And sure, he’s the obvious pick. But if you know me, I don’t like going with the crowd, so I won’t be stopping there. 

I’ll have Journalism sitting atop a few tickets because, let’s face it, leaving him off entirely feels reckless. But I’m also taking a swing for the fences with a colt I think still has another gear to find, American Promise, who I have ranked no. 10. Fresh off a smashing Virginia Derby win, he looks like a colt begging for 10 furlongs, and the Kentucky Derby should be right in his sweet spot.

Breaking from post 5, I’m expecting him to settle into a perfect stalking trip behind what may be a sensible but not suicidal pace. If he finds that cozy spot and the front-runners come back to him just a touch, don’t be shocked if he’s the one they’re all trying to catch turning for home with just enough in reserve to shock the racing world and deliver a fifth Kentucky Derby win for the legendary D. Wayne Lukas at the remarkable age of 89. 

In early February, I joined Horse Racing Nation's Ed DeRosa on Ron Flatter’s Racing Pod for a Kentucky Derby Mock Draft. Funny enough, of the seven handicappers who took part, Ed and I ended up with the most draft picks who made the Derby gate, three out of four. I’m still high on my trio: Tiztastic, Burnham Square and Sovereignty. Of the three, Tiztastic and Sovereignty give me the most confidence. As for Burnham Square, I like him, but 10 furlongs might be a bridge too far. 

The other horse I’ll be leaning on is Japan’s Luxor Café. Some have gone as far as saying he’s better than Forever Young. I’m not ready to co-sign that take just yet, but he absolutely fits in this field. His stock got a nice boost earlier this week when Natural Rise romped in the Haneda Hai (G1), the first leg of Japan’s Triple Crown. Although the two haven’t squared off, they did run on the same day at the same track and distance, when Natural Rise won the Cattleya Stakes and Luxor Café broke his maiden over that same surface in a track-record time that was 0.60 seconds faster. I’m not about to miss the bus if this colt ends up in the winner’s circle. 

A few rapid-fire thoughts on the rest of the Derby cast: I just can’t see Citizen Bull factoring late because 10 furlongs looks out of his scope. Of the Baffert duo, give me Rodriguez, who absolutely could make noise if he works out the right trip. Publisher is still a maiden, but hey, in today’s version of this sport, nothing shocks me anymore, not even a maiden wearing roses. And if you’re on the Publisher train, you have to respect Sandman by association. I don’t think either is winning, but they’re the kind you won’t want to ignore if you’re playing the bottom of your tickets. 

As always, my top wish is for every equine athlete competing at Churchill Downs and around the globe this weekend to come through their races safe and sound. Best of luck to everyone reading this with all your wagers.

Older dirt males

1. White Abarrio. Scored another win, this time in the Ghostzapper (G3) at Gulfstream. The Pegasus World Cup (G1) winner will run next in the Met Mile (G1) on Belmont Stakes day.

2. Locked. Unleashing a tour de force in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), he secured his first Grade 1 win since his juvenile days. Though he started the year playing second fiddle to White Abarrio in the Pegasus, his Big 'Cap domination proved he might deserve another crack. Will run next in the Alysheba (G2) on Kentucky Oaks day at Churchill Downs facing Fierceness, among others.

3. Hit Show. His win in the Dubai World Cup (G1) might have been a surprise to some, but not here. If he can bring that form back to the U.S., he will be a major player in this division.

4. First Mission. Turned in the race of his life in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2), handling a tough crew of Grade 2 and Grade 3 vets. He’s still chasing that elusive Grade 1 win, but with only 12 starts under his belt two starts into his 5-year-old season, there’s still time and now, momentum. The Stephen Foster (G1) in late June at Churchill Downs is next.

5. Sierra Leone. Ran the worst race of his career in his seasonal debut in the New Orleans Classic (G2). No excuses. He will continue to drop if he doesn't run soon.

Next five: Fierceness, Express Train, Mindframe, Hall of Fame, Touchupsonastar.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Another race, another stroll in the park, this time in the Apple Blossom (G1). I'll give credit where it’s due, and she just keeps winning. It’s not her fault she draws weak fields in races such as the Apple Blossom. Next stop is the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day, where Raging Sea and Randomized will also be entered.

2. Cavalieri. This filly means business. At 4-for-4 and only getting faster, she’s proving to be a real force in the division. Disappointed she didn't make the trip to Oaklawn for the Apple Blossom and is conspicuous by her absence this weekend. Will drop now in the coming days due to inactivity.

3. Richi. She steamrolled the Santa Maria (G2) at Santa Anita, opening up by more than four lengths and giving a nice boost to Cavalieri, who beat her the race before. This Chilean import has done nothing but impress since arriving stateside. She has five solid efforts since June, and don’t forget that Group 1 win at 10 furlongs back home. She’s got stamina, class and momentum. A serious player in this division.

4. Power Squeeze. She ran surprisingly well last time out in the Ghostzapper (G3), finishing second to White Abarrio and hanging in tough with the big boy. No one in this division has tackled tougher company in 2025, having already squared off against males twice.

5. Raging Sea. Runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, she delivered as expected. Her 2024 highlight was upsetting Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign (G1). She starts this season far back of the leader but has a shot to move up as she takes on the champ in the La Troienne.

Next five: Gin Gin, Free Like a Girl, Sugar Fish, Randomized, Candied

3-year-old fillies

1. Good Cheer. She’s now 6-for-6 in her career after her win in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). With three Grade 2 stakes victories under her belt, she’ll aim for her first Grade 1 win in the Kentucky Oaks, where she seems like a bit of an underlay to me.

2. Quietside. She delivered a thrilling victory in the Fantasy (G2), outdueling Simply Joking in what could be the race of the year so far. After her impressive Honeybee (G3) win two races ago, she’ll head to the Kentucky Oaks as a huge overlay with that 8-1 morning line.

3. Simply Joking. She put up a fierce fight in the Fantasy, going toe-to-toe with Quietside for nearly the entire race. That runner-up finish was her first blemish in three starts. She is a major player in the Kentucky Oaks.

4. La Cara. Facile winner of the Ashland (G1), this gal finished runner-up in the Davona Dale (G2) at Gulfstream before that. She too could make noise in the Kentucky Oaks.

5. Five G. Second in the Honeybee (G3) two starts back to Quietside, she scored her first graded-stakes win last out in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). She is being scratched from the Kentucky Oaks.

Next five: Tenma, Muhimma, Ballerina d'Oro, Eclatant, Nitrogen

Turf males

1. Carl Spackler. Returned with authority, romping in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland and reminding everyone why he’s a force on turf. With Grade 1 wins in three of his last four starts, he rockets to the top of the division.

2. Far Bridge. He kicked off 2025 with a hard-fought neck victory in the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream, a win that propelled him to the top of a division desperately craving order. With two Grade 1 wins last year, he will probably wait until Belmont Stakes weekend and the Manhattan (G1) to run next.

3. Spirit of St Louis. Finished fourth, beaten by less than two lengths, last out in the Muniz Memorial presented by Horse Racing Nation (G2) at Fair Grounds. It was a disappointing effort, and it sent this division into further disarray. He does have that win in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), where he won his first graded stakes. A winner of 10 of 15 starts, this was only his second off-the-board finish. He will try to get back on track this weekend in the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs.

4. Johannes. Kept his hot streak going with a win in the San Gabriel (G2) in December, capping off a stellar 2024 campaign with five graded-stakes victories from six starts. His only loss came as a runner-up to More Than Looks in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Back in training now, and I'm hoping to see him back at the races.

5. Integration. He’s been second-best in back-to-back Grade 1s but far from disappointing. Kicked off the season with a strong runner-up effort in the Pegasus Turf, followed by another solid showing last out in the Maker’s Mark Mile. Will try to get in the win column in the Turf Classic this weekend.

Next five: Nation's Pride, Formidable Man, Dashman, Atitlan, Utah Beach

Turf females

1. Choisya. Hard to say she was truly best in the Jenny Wiley (G1), considering the interference with runner-up Excellent Truth. After an objection and steward’s review, she stayed up, and that's a call I wouldn’t have made. Still, she’s 3-for-3 this season, which is why she lands on top for now and holds her place in the top five. But unless she returns to race in the U.S., that spot won’t last long.

2. She Feels Pretty. She capped off her 3-year-old season with back-to-back Grade 1 wins in the Queen Elizabeth at Keeneland and the American Oaks at Santa Anita last season and starts her season off in the Modesty (G3) on Kentucky Oaks day.

3. Excellent Truth. She was clearly best in the Jenny Wiley but had to settle for second behind Choisya in her seasonal debut. If she doesn’t resurface on U.S. soil soon, though, expect her to slide down these rankings in the coming weeks.

4. Kehoe Beach. Ran a career best race in the Jenny Wiley, where she finished a good third in her seasonal debut. Big things are expected from this daughter of Omaha Beach in 2025.

5. Saffron Moon. Has won both of her starts this season, the Endeavour (G3) and Hillsborough (G2) at Tampa. Gets a test this in the Modesty facing She Feel's Pretty on Oaks day.

Next five: Sacred Wish, Beach Bomb, Ag Bullet, Lady Claypoole, Special Wan

Male sprinters

1. Straight No Chaser. The reigning Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion disappointed in Dubai, finishing eighth in the Golden Shaheen (G1). Before that he kicked off 2025 in style, taking the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) in Saudi Arabia. Targeting the Bing Crosby (G1) at Del Mar in late July for his next start.

2. Raging Torrent. Scored a big win in the Godolphin Mile (G2) at Meydan and before that he scored a win in the Malibu (G1) last December. He faced Straight No Chaser in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall and finished well back.

3. Book'em Danno. Made his 2025 debut a winning one as he scored in a race at Colonial Downs, beating just two others. Connections wisely chose to skip Dubai and keep him in the U.S. for the remainder of the season. Will see him run this weekend in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) where he faces by far the best field he has ever faced.

4. Big City Lights. This guy won his first start of of 2025 in the California Cup Sprint at Santa Anita in a romp, and before that he romped in the Cary Grant Stakes at Del Mar. Placed in three graded-stakes races last season but appears to be a step above that form now.

5. Mullikin. Finished second in the Cigar Mile (G2) behind Locked after a third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He earned his first Grade 1 win in the Forego and first graded win in the Nerud (G2). The 4-year-old colt is 5-for-10 in his career and is back this weekend in the Churchill Down Stakes on Kentucky Derby day.

Next five: Nakatomi, Booth, Bentornato, Mufasa, Federal Judge

Female sprinters

1. Kopion. In one of the more bizarre morning lines I have ever seen, this gal was made the 8-1 fourth betting choice in the Derby City Distaff (G1). It’s safe to say Mike Battaglia must’ve hit the snooze button while setting the morning line at Churchill Downs because he was definitely asleep at the wheel. Back-to-back dominant wins in the La Brea (G1) and Santa Monica (G2), both with speed figures no one in this division was able to muster last year. She’s the one to beat in this division. 

2. Nic's Style. This Florida-bred is 7-for-8 in her career, her only loss a runner-up to Ways and Means last year in the Gallant Bloom (G2). She won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) last out for her fourth win in a row. A serious player in this division.

3. Hope Road. Second best to the top one in the Santa Monica last out, she won two stakes last season. Faces her toughest test to date this weekend in the Derby City Distaff (G1).

4. Richi. Ran well when stretching out last time against Cavalieri and against Kopion before that. Won the Las Flores (G3) sprinting in her first start of 2025.

5. Emery. Has run first or second in five straight major races in this division, all graded stakes. Was runner-up in the Madison (G1) last out and will join the party and run in the Derby City Distaff.

Next five: Positano Sunset, Mystic Lake, Pleasant, Spirit Wind, Ways and Means