Division rankings: Contentious California Crown delivers

Call me crazy, but it’s not a stretch to say Saturday’s Grade 1 California Crown at Santa Anita features the best field of male dirt horses we’ve seen all year.

Apologies to the East Coast. Yes, you, Saratoga. But who would’ve guessed that on the last Saturday in September, it’s Santa Anita of all places hosting the showdown between the top two older dirt males and one of the more highly regarded 3-year-olds in training daring to take them both on?

Click here for Santa Anita entries and results.

The race has gone by a few names. The Goodwood, the Awesome Again, now the California Crown. Whatever you call it, the storylines this year are interesting. Arkansas Derby winner Muth is stepping up against older horses, and another Grade 1 win could light up his Eclipse chances. Then there’s the trilogy, National Treasure vs. Señor Buscador, squaring off for the third time this season after splitting their first two battles. 

I’ll dive into these storylines in a bit. First let’s take a look at this week’s updated division rankings

Older dirt males

1. National Treasure. He’s running this weekend in the California Crown against what I would call the best field of males we’ve seen all season. Sure he flopped in the sloppy Whitney (G1), extending his winless streak on off tracks to 0-for-3, but hey, he’s still on top here. Face it. No one else in this division has done enough to knock him off the pedestal. With two Grade 1 wins already, another one this weekend would practically wrap the Eclipse up for him, regardless of what happens in the Breeders' Cup.

2. Señor Buscador. He used the Pat O’Brien (G2) last out as a tune-up for the California Crown, closing from the clouds to finish fourth, beaten by just over six lengths in that seven-furlong sprint. He kicked off the year with a narrow loss to National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1), snagged a Saudi Cup (G1) win in February, and picked up a third in the Dubai World Cup (G1). But let’s be real. This weekend is do or die. If he doesn’t win, any Eclipse dreams go up in smoke, no matter what happens at the Breeders’ Cup. Oh, and in case you forgot, he hasn’t won a race on U.S. soil in 2024.

3. Highland Falls. Last time out he delivered one of the most impressive performances we’ve seen in this division all season, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). It wasn’t just the win but how he achieved it. From the start he took the race to Arthur’s Ride, engaging in a spirited early battle. Highland Falls pulled ahead around the far turn and never looked back, crossing the finish line with an open-lengths win. Although his final quarter was notably slow, it remains the biggest win of his nine-race career. This season he has won half of his six starts, including the Blame (G3) at Churchill Downs in June.

4. Pyrenees. A model of consistency, he’s 3-for-5 this season with two runner-up finishes in Grade 1s, the Stephen Foster and most recently the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

5. Skippylongstocking. I suppose he resides here by default, because no other horse really deserves the spot. Sure, he’s picked up three graded-stakes wins this season but flopped in his two Grade 1 tries. He’ll show up this weekend in a watered-down Woodward (G2), which is just a shadow of the once-prestigious race it used to be.

Next 5: Arthur’s Ride, Saudi Crown, Next, Crupi, Mixto.

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Even though she lost by a head to Raging Sea in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga, Idiomatic impressed me more in that defeat than in any of her prior wins. After a relentless duel with Randomized, she pulled ahead turning for home only to get nipped at the wire. But make no mistake. Idiomatic’s still on top. Next stop, the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland in October.

2. Adare Manor. News of her retirement broke Thursday, so her Eclipse hopes end prematurely. She will remain in these rankings for now, so long as she retains a top-three standing. Her last start, a Clement L. Hirsch (G1) win, she showed us something new. Heart and a whole new gear. On the far turn it looked like she was in trouble, but then she found another gear and blew past a solid field to win decisively. She was 3-for-4 this season with two Grade 1 victories, more than anyone else in this division. 

3. Raging Sea. Scored an upset win in the Personal Ensign (G1) using her late run to edge Idiomatic at the wire. She quietly has won three graded stakes this season and adds her name to the short list of horses in this division who can end the season on top.

4. Randomized. Engaged in an early battle with Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign but couldn’t keep up and faded to finish fifth, more than 15 lengths behind. But she did win the Ogden Phipps (G1) by upsetting Idiomatic earlier this season and will have another chance this fall.

5. Sweet Azteca. Scored another easy and dominant win in the Rancho Bernardo (G3) last out. Her connections are aiming for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, where she will be a formidable contender on her home track. She is 5-for-6 in her career.

Next 5: Scylla, Honor D Lady, Shotgun Hottie, Flying Connection, Desert Dawn.

3-year-old males

1. Fierceness. He went into the Travers (G1) with a lot of question marks but answered them loud and clear, digging deep in the stretch to fend off Thorpedo Anna for a gutsy, popular win. He’s back on top of the division, and he’ll train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where he’ll face a tougher field and probably won’t get such a cozy pace setup. For now he resides here.

2. Dornoch. Really had no excuses in the Travers as he sat off the slow early fractions set by Batten Down. Still he did win the Belmont and Haskell (G1). He is by no means out of this Eclipse race and will be back to try to make amends for his Travers failure. He too will train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

3. Seize the Grey. The Preakness winner snapped his two-race losing streak with a big win in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), putting him back in the Eclipse conversation. This son of Arrogate now controls his own Eclipse destiny. Just win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Forget the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. His connections will lean Classic, and if he delivers, the Eclipse will be rightfully his.

4. Sierra Leone. Arguably the most consistent horse in this division, Sierra Leone once again fell short in a big race. Still he performed as well as could be expected in the Travers, especially given the circumstances. Unlike Fierceness and Thorpedo Anna, he just doesn’t have that tactical speed, which put him at a disadvantage with the slow pace. He’s clearly a top-two or top-three contender in this division. I still believe he’ll come through on a big day, and if he catches a favorable pace in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, beware. His chances will be looking very good

5. Mystik Dan. He faltered in the Belmont but remains near the top because of his achievements in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Connections are toying with the idea of shipping him to California to target the Malibu (G1) in December as his comeback race.

Next 5: Forever Young, Stronghold, Muth, Dragoon Guard, Catching Freedom.

3-year-old fillies

1. Thorpedo Anna. She prevailed in the Cotillion at Parx by a diminishing neck, but a win is a win. It was her fourth Grade 1 victory this season. Before the Cotillion she exceeded all expectations by raising her game to finish a game runner-up in the Travers. The Cotillion saw Thorpedo Anna regress substantially speed-figure-wise from her previous race, calling into question the validity of some of the figures assigned in the Travers. She will have a tough task ahead of her should she run in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar on Nov. 2.

2. Power Squeeze. Could do no batter than seventh in the Cotillion, beaten by nearly 10 lengths by Thorpedo Anna. Previously she was an impressive winner of the Alabama (G1), where she narrowly defeated Candied by a head. She has won three graded stakes this season.

3. Candied. Two straight strong runner-up finishes in Grade 1 events. The Alabama came a few weeks after her runner-up to Thorpedo Anna in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). Before that she won the Lady’s Secret at Monmouth Park.

4. Gun Song. Nearly pulled off a major upset in the Cotillion after she rallied after being passed by her rival to nearly come back and score the win. She has just one graded-stakes win this year but did prep for the Cotillion with a listed-stakes score and looks to be better now with age.

5. Tarifa. Third to Thorpedo Anna in the Cotillion, she has two graded-stakes wins on the season. 

Next 5: Sugar Fish, Hope Road, Nothing Like You, Ways and Means, Leslie's Rose.

Turf males

1. Johannes. He’s back in action this weekend in the City of Hope Mile (G2) at Santa Anita, aiming for his fourth graded-stakes win of the season. With a 6-for-10 career record, he’s cementing himself as a serious contender in this division. He won’t even have to leave his California home base with the Breeders’ Cup Mile conveniently held at Del Mar. 

2. Cogburn. He made a strong return in the Turf Sprint (G2) at Kentucky Downs with another impressive victory. He remains undefeated, now 3-for-3 this season. Although it’s tough for a turf sprinter to claim an Eclipse Award, Stormy Liberal managed it in 2018 when the division lacked a standout. Can Cogburn do the same this year? Absolutely.

3. Measured Time. Made his return to the races in the Sword Dancer (G1) but was upset and finished as the runner-up to Far Bridge. In his only other U.S. start this season he dominated the Manhattan on Belmont Stakes day, marking his first Grade 1 win.

4. Silver Knott. Never saw the lead in the Sword Dancer last out, finishing third as he, too, was upset by Far Bridge. Now 3-for-4 in 2024, all his wins came in Grade 2 events.

5. Master of The Seas. He won the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) impressively in his last outing, bringing his total to three Grade 1 victories in his last four starts in North America. After his win in April his connections opted to bench him. They planned to start him in the Fourstardave (G1), but he was scratched because of a foot bruise. This is why you run when you can, and it underscores the importance of seizing opportunities when they arise. Continues to drop with inactivity.

Next 5: Carl Spackler, Far Bridge, Nation's Pride, Goliad, Win for the Money.

Turf females

1. Whitebeam. She claims the top spot after Didia and Anisette lost at Del Mar. Last month she won the Diana (G1) against the strongest field of female turf horses this season. Before that she was runner-up in two graded stakes this year. Her next race is the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland in October.

2. War Like Goddess. Was the victim of pace again last out when she finished second in the Flower Bowl (G2), but the good news is she came running. I keep expecting her to slow down at age 7, but she just keeps going strong. Before the Flower Bowl she scored an easy win in the Robert G. Dick Memorial (G3) at Delaware Park. Remarkably she will contend for an Eclipse in this division for the fourth consecutive season. Will take on males in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) on Saturday, aiming for her third consecutive win in that race.

3. Anisette. She was disappointing in her last start, finishing third in the Mabee Stakes (G2) and missing her chance to claim the top spot in the division. Before that she cruised to an easy victory against an outclassed field in the Yellow Ribbon (G2) at Del Mar. She’s 2-for-3 this season with her other win coming in the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita on Memorial Day. Her connections have decided to train Anisette up to a start in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

4. Didia. She’s coming off two disappointing performances, finishing off the board in both the Diana (G1) last month and the Mabee Stakes two weeks ago. But earlier she impressed with a dominant win over a tough field in the New York (G1) and kicked off her campaign with a victory in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf Invitational (G2) in January.

5. Chili Flag. Disappointed in the Diana, finishing ninth after winning three in a row going in. The Just a Game (G1) winner on Belmont Stakes weekend still deserves to reside in the top five. Also will wait for the First Lady at Keeneland in October.

Next 5: Moira, Beaute Cachee, Idea Generation, Full Count Felicia, McKulick.

Male sprinters

1. The Chosen Vron. Remains at the top despite his upset loss in the Pat O’Brien (G2), where he finished a close runner-up to Raging Torrent. It was his first defeat in six starts this season. By today’s standards his record is remarkable with 19 wins from 25 starts with only two finishes off the board. Eighteen of those wins have come in stakes races.

2. Mullikin. Like Elite Power a few years ago, this horse has emerged as a late-season star. He scored his first Grade 1 victory in the Forego at Saratoga after his first graded-stakes win in the Nerud (G2) at Aqueduct in July. Overall this 4-year-old colt by Violence is 5-for-9 in his career.

3. Nakatomi. Scored a nice win when defeating Skelly in the Vanderbilt (G1) last out at Saratoga for his first victory of 2024. Previously he had run third in both of his starts.

4. Gun Pilot. Finished as runner-up to Millikin in the Forego last time out and was third as the favorite in the True North (G2) on Belmont Stakes weekend. Earlier he notched his first stakes win in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1).

5. Skelly. Runner-up to Nakatomi in the Vanderbilt two back, and runner-up again in a listed stakes at Churchill Downs two weeks ago—he's officially on a three-race losing streak, all second-place finishes. Despite the string of silver medals, I still think he’s a top-five player in this division.

Next 5: Raging Torrent, Domestic Product, Prince of Monaco, Closethegame Sugar, Baby Yoda.

Female sprinters

1. Vahva. Disappointed as the favorite in the Ballerina (G1), finishing third behind Society. Before that she delivered an impressive win in the Chicago (G3) at Churchill Downs, running down Society in the stretch. Earlier she defeated Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1) with a comfortable two-length victory after finishing runner-up to the same rival in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in April.

2. Sweet Azteca. She moves up to this spot, although she arguably deserves the no. 1 ranking. She delivered another impressive victory in  dominating the Rancho Bernardo (G3) at Del Mar and consistently has posted some of the fastest speed figures in this division. With three consecutive graded-stakes wins, she’s 5-for-6 in her career.

3. Society. Scored her first win of 2024 in a big one, defeating Vahva and Scylla in the Ballerina. In her only other start this season she was third to Vahva in the Chicago (G3).

4. Way and Means. Scored an impressive win in the Test (G1) last time out for her first stakes win. Returns this weekend in the Gallant Bloom (G2) facing older for the first time.

5. Scylla. Runner-up in the Ballerina last out to Society after running in two-turn races. Has won two graded stakes this season.

Next 5: Spirit Wind, Accede, Clearly Unhinged, Soul of an Angel, Almostgone Rocket.

Muth attempts a statement win

The older dirt-male division has been underwhelming for the second year in a row. National Treasure, who broke out nationally with his Preakness win last year, still holds the top spot, not because he’s been dominant, but because no one else has put together a resume to truly challenge him. 

To be fair to National Treasure, he seems to hate off tracks, so if you’re willing to forgive his Whitney meltdown, he’s actually had a pretty solid year. He’s shown up for the three biggest races this division has offered so far and won two of them, the Pegasus World Cup in January and the Met Mile (G1) in June. 

Back in California, National Treasure is set to make his first appearance at Santa Anita since that close loss in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. The task ahead this weekend isn’t an easy one, but at least he’ll be up against a familiar foe like Señor Buscador along with stablemates Muth and Santa Anita Handicap (G1) winner Newgate. 

What would another win mean for National Treasure? For me it’s a no-brainer. He’d clinch the Eclipse and earn my vote. With three Grade 1 wins under his belt, he’d have two more than anyone else in the division. And let’s be real. The entire season counts, not just Breeders’ Cup day. Even if another older male scored the Breeders’ Cup Classic, I can’t see another toppling him from the top. 

The stakes are high for Señor Buscador. Despite his impressive résumé this season with a runner-up finish in the Pegasus, a fan-favorite win in the Saudi Cup (G1), and a respectable third in the Dubai World Cup, he still hasn’t managed to score a win on this continent. So this weekend is a must-win for the son of Mineshaft if he hopes to keep his Eclipse hopes alive. A loss here? Well, that would pretty much slam the door on any shot he has at the award, at least in my book.

What about Muth? After seemingly vanishing into witness protection, he resurfaced last month with a solid win in the Shared Belief Stakes, his first outing after a five-month layoff. 

Honestly, I still have no clue just how good Muth really is. But if he manages to topple these older males and score another Grade 1 win this season, he’ll join the likes of Fierceness, Dornoch and Seize the Grey as 3-year-olds poised to control their Eclipse fates come Breeders’ Cup Day. Why not? He’d be unbeaten in four starts this season, boasting the same number of Grade 1 wins as those three. 

All things being equal, a victory in the California Crown against this group of older horses would carry a lot more weight than what Seize the Grey pulled off last week in the Pennsylvania Derby against fellow 3-year-olds. I’d even argue it could rival Fierceness’s win in the Travers. So, yeah, being the first top 3-year-old male to take down elite older rivals would definitely make a statement. 

Don’t count out others in this field. They’re no pushovers. Newgate already has a Santa Anita Handicap win under his belt this season, taking down Subsanador, who’s also in the mix. And let’s not forget Subsanador himself. He made the cross-country trek for his last start in the Iselin (G3) at Monmouth and came back with a solid win.