Division rankings: Breeders' Cup results deepen Eclipse chaos

After over 40 years of dissecting divisions in this sport, I can confidently say that 2024 has left us with more Eclipse chaos than ever following the Breeders’ Cup.

Of the 10 divisions listed below, at least four are in complete turmoil regarding the Eclipse awards, and two others are ripe for heated debate. The 3-year-old male division, which I initially thought would be a no-brainer, now has me reconsidering Sierra Leone’s candidacy. He deserves attention, and if you don’t think so, read my reasoning why below.

The silver lining? We’ve got weeks before the voting deadline, which means plenty of time to hash this out and hear from you fans about your takes. Just remember, in these division rankings, we leave the bias and hyperbole at the door. That’s for the other guys.

Now, let’s dive into this week’s restructured division rankings and see just how chaotic things really are.

Older dirt males

1. National Treasure. In just a decade, this Eclipse Award, designated solely for dirt or synthetic horses, finds itself in a perplexing situation as not a single contender truly deserves the accolade. But duty calls, and we have to cast our votes. I would reluctantly give it to this guy based on his record. With two major Grade 1 wins and a near-miss in another, his resume surpasses all other eligible horses, Breeders’ Cup or not. Who else even makes sense? No one.

2. Subsanador. I had high hopes for this guy earlier in the season, but like many South America imports, he took his sweet time getting up to speed. The California Crown (G1) winner is trained by Richard Mandella, who’s had success with these types before, including Sandpit, Malek, Siphon and Gentlemen. Subsanador finally was starting to show what he’s made of. He had taken clear steps forward and was a legitimate player in the division but now has been put on the shelf until next season because of injury.

3. Newgate. He’s been a solid performer in all five of his U.S. races this season. After taking the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) in March, where he defeated Highland Falls, he narrowly missed out on the California Crown in September, losing by a head. Then, in the Breeders' Cup Classic, he turned in a commendable effort, finishing fourth, only three lengths behind the winner. He proved he belongs in the conversation among the top contenders in this division.

4. Hit Show. He quietly has racked up four wins in five starts this season, with his last three victories coming in graded stakes. Sure, he hasn’t faced the cream of the crop in this division, but really, what defines "the best" anymore in this division? I’d back him against any of the names ranked here. He absolutely deserves his spot in the top five right now, and if he takes the Clark (G2) at Churchill in a few weeks, don’t be surprised if he climbs into the top three on my Eclipse ballot.

5. Highland Falls. He never posed a serious threat in the Breeders' Cup Classic, finishing a dismal ninth and trailing by more than 14 lengths. Before that embarrassment, he did have a moment of glory, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in impressive fashion. Overall, his season has been a mixed bag, with three wins from seven starts, including a solid showing in the Blame (G3) at Churchill Downs in June. But let’s be honest. A good season doesn’t quite erase the memory of that lackluster Classic performance.

Next 5: Señor Buscador, Full Seranno, Tapit Trice, Skippylongstocking, Arthur’s Ride

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Really a downer when it was announced she will be retired and had to miss the Breeders' Cup Distaff. In her last start, she owned the Spinster (G1) again, making it back-to-back wins. I was more impressed with her in her two losses this season than in her wins, but she still had a rock-solid year. She's going to earn my Eclipse vote in this division, but Adare Manor was right on her heels.

2. Adare Manor. Despite retirement, she will remain in these rankings. In her last start, a Clement L. Hirsch (G1) win, she showed us something new. Heart and a whole new gear. On the far turn it looked like she was in trouble, but then she blew past a solid field to win decisively. She was 3-for-4 this season with two Grade 1 victories, more than anyone else in this division.

3. Raging Sea. As the runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Distaff and the second choice at the betting window, she did exactly what was expected of her. Before the Distaff, she barely edged out a win in the Beldame (G2), but her standout performance this season came when she pulled off an upset over Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign (G1).

4. Randomized. Engaged in an early battle with Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign but couldn’t keep up and faded to finish fifth, more than 15 lengths behind. But she did win the Ogden Phipps (G1) by upsetting Idiomatic earlier this season and will have another chance this fall.

5. Sweet Azteca. Was stunningly off the board at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. Before that she had been dominant this season, winning four of her five starts. Didn't run in the Breeders' Cup.

Next 5: Scylla, Honor D Lady, Shotgun Hottie, Flying Connection, Desert Dawn

3-year-old males

1. Sierra Leone. Before the Breeders' Cup Classic, he was the model of consistency in this division, but he finally seized his moment in style, decisively winning the Classic against Fierceness and Forever Young. Now the real debate begins. Can he snag the Eclipse in this division? Absolutely, and I don't see any reason why he shouldn't.

2. Fierceness. He put in a stellar performance in the Breeders' Cup Classic, running close to the blistering pace before holding strong to finish a game runner-up to rival Sierra Leone. Many believe his two Grade 1 victories should be enough to clinch the Eclipse in this division, but I’m not quite ready to hand it over just yet. The debate between these top two is far from over. Expect serious pondering in the weeks to come.

3. Dornoch. Really had no excuses in the Travers (G1) as he sat off the slow early fractions set by Batten Down. Still, he did win the Belmont Stakes and Haskell (G1). Out of the Eclipse race now because of his premature retirement, he will stay in my rankings for now because he is in the top three and would be on my Eclipse ballot if the season ended today.

4. Forever Young. Surprisingly, Forever Young found himself right up near the blistering pace of the Breeders' Cup Classic, far from his usual late-running style. Although he lacked his trademark late kick, he still finishing third, beaten by less than three lengths. It’s clear he’s among the elite in this division.
5. Seize the Grey. Never got to the lead in the Dirt Mile, and he subsequently finished eighth, beaten by 7 1/2 lengths. The Preakness winner previously scored a big win in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and will finish the season with a record of 9: 4-0-1.

Next 5: Mystik Dan, Stronghold, Domestic Product, Dragoon Guard, Catching Freedom

3-year-old fillies

1. Thorpedo Anna. With Idiomatic and Awesome Result out of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she coasted to victory over the weakest field in the event’s 40-year history. Her win was expected, and although I applaud her impressive 2024 season, let’s keep some perspective here. She faced a historically weak 3-year-old filly division, but she beat who was lined up against her. Now, with the lack of a dominant horse in other divisions, she will win horse of the year. Sure, she might be the best we’ve seen in the last five years, since Monomoy Girl, to be exact. But the hype calling her an all-time great among 3-year-old fillies is just that, hype.

2. Candied. Ran a good third in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, finishing as expected as she was the third betting choice. Prior to the Distaff she finished a solid third in the Spinster behind Idiomatic. That came on the heels of runner-up finishes in two straight Grade 1 races. She was second to Thorpedo Anna in the Coaching Club American Oaks and followed that with a runner-up in the Alabama. She also took home the Lady’s Secret at Monmouth before that. She has consistently knocked on the door.

3. Power Squeeze. Could do no batter than seventh in the Cotillion (G1), beaten by nearly 10 lengths by Thorpedo Anna. Previously she was an impressive winner of the Alabama, where she narrowly defeated Candied by a head. She has won three graded stakes this season.

4. Sugar Fish. Fifth in he Breeders' Cup Distaff, she was beaten by a little over six lengths. Before that she scored a big win in the Zenyatta (G2), becoming the first in her division to defeat older in a meaningful race. Earlier she scored an open-lengths win in the Summertime Oaks (G2).

5. Gun Song. Narrowly lost another one, this time in the Mother Goose (G2) last out to Tarifa. Before that she nearly pulled off a major upset in the Cotillion when she rallied after being passed by her rival to nearly come back and score the win. She has only one graded-stakes win this year but prepped for the Cotillion with a listed-stakes score and looks to be better now with age.

Next 5: Tarifa, Ways and Means, Leslie's Rose, Nothing Like You, Hope Road

Turf males

1. Johannes. Ran great in the Breeders' Cup Mile, finishing ahead of everyone except for More Than Looks. No other has done enough to unseat him from this spot so as of now he will get my No. 1 vote for the Eclipse in this division. Before the Mile he scored in the City of Hope Mile (G2) at Santa Anita for his fourth graded-stakes win of the season.

2. Far Bridge. Never really got on track in the Breeders' Cup Turf, finishing ninth but beaten only five lengths. Before the Breeders' Cup, he was on a two-race winning streak. After a slow start to his season, Far Bridge won the Joe Hirsch (G1) and Sword Dancer (G1).

3. Carl Spackler. He too never really got on track in his Breeders' Cup race, the Mile. Finishing sixth, beaten by a little over two lengths, he didn't run badly at all, so he maintains this spot based on his resume this season. Before the Breeders' Cup he notched his second straight Grade 1 win in the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland.

4. More Than Looks. No, he won't be ranked No. 1 here with one win in 2024. Sure, it was a big win, but let’s not forget he only had two other starts this season and in both, he was runner-up to Carl Spackler. So unless he starts again this season, he falls short of my top three on the Eclipse ballot.

5. Cogburn. After going 3-for-3 this season, he dropped the ball in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, finishing a lackluster fifth, just over a length behind. Given that, he likely deserves an even bigger drop. And with some major turf races still on the horizon, he just might get it.

Next 5: Measured Time, Master of the Seas, Gold Phoenix, Silver Knott, Nation's Pride

Turf females

1. Moira. A fan-favorite win in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf finally gives her a Grade 1 win after six attempts. But now what? This division is a mess, with no filly truly dominating all year. Does she deserve the Eclipse? I'm not sold yet. In the 45-year history of this award, only four have taken it with only one Grade 1 win. I'll dive deeper into this muddled debate next week.

2. Didia. Bounced back strongly from two recent letdowns to nearly steal the Breeders' Cup Mile, finishing a close third, just a half-length off the winner. The Just a Game (G1) winner from Belmont Stakes weekend reclaims her spot in the top five, where she has belonged for most of the season.

3. Gina Romantica. Was super impressive last out in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland, defeating Chili Flag and Whitebeam for her second win in this race in as many years. Gina has made a habit of showing up at Keeneland, winning a Grade 1 there three years in a row.

4. War Like Goddess. Came up short again in a Breeders' Cup race, this time finishing fifth behind Moira in the Filly & Mare Turf, beaten by a little over two lengths. Before that effort she ran very well in the Joe Hirsch against the males when runner-up to Far Bridge. She ran well in her previous four starts this season but managed to win only once.

5. Whitebeam. She couldn’t have picked a worse time to throw in a clunker, finishing ninth in the First Lady when the spotlight was on her. That kind of performance knocked her out of the No. 1 spot. This summer, she was on top of the world after winning the Diana (G1) against the deepest field of female turf horses we’ve seen this year. Before that, she was runner-up in two graded stakes, so it's not like she’s been off her game. But that First Lady flop? I didn't see that coming.

Next 5: Anisette, Chili Flag, Beaute Cachee, Beautiful Love, Full Count Felicia

Male sprinters

1. The Chosen Vron. Remains at the top despite his upset loss in the Pat O’Brien (G2), where he finished a close runner-up to Raging Torrent. It was his first defeat in six starts this season. By today’s standards his record is remarkable, with 19 wins from 25 starts and only two finishes off the board. Eighteen of those wins have come in stakes races. Missed the Breeders' Cup but is 5-for-6 this year, all of his win in stakes that include the Bing Crosby (G1). Gets my vote for the Eclipse in division.

2. Straight No Chaser. Scored a big win in the Breeders' Cup Sprint in just his third start of 2024. No, he doesn't vault to No. 1 in these rankings. His only other win of the season was the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2), and his only other start this season was an off-the-board finish at Aqueduct in the Runhappy (G3).

3. Mullikin. Third in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, he was beaten by three lengths. Before that he scored his first Grade 1 victory in the Forego at Saratoga after his first graded-stakes win in the Nerud (G2) at Aqueduct in July. Overall this 4-year-old colt by Violence is 5-for-10 in his career.

4. Gun Pilot. Fourth in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, he was just a head behind Mullikin, whom he was runner-up to in the Forego one race prior and was third as the favorite in the True North (G2) on Belmont Stakes weekend. Earlier this season he notched his first stakes win in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1).

5. Nakatomi. Disappointed in the Breeders' Cup Sprint as he never really got going, finishing sixth. He had a nice win when defeating Skelly in the Vanderbilt (G1) at Saratoga earlier this season. Before that, he ran third in both of his starts.

Next 5: Federal Judge, Raging Torrent, Domestic Product, Post Time, Skelly

Female sprinters

1. Soul of an Angel. Closed like a rocket to capture the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Could that give her Eclipse? It's hard not to be impressed by a mare who threw it down 10 times this year against the best in her own division and among older dirt females. She proved her versatility with a sprint win in the Princess Rooney (G3) and a mile score in the Ruffian (G2) earlier this season, where she topped Randomized. She’s earned her stripes, and right now, she’s my Eclipse pick in a division begging for a standout.

2. Society. Runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint as the favorite, she came up just short, losing by a half-length. She scored her first win of 2024 in a big one one race prior, defeating Vahva and Scylla in the Ballerina (G1). In her only other start this season she was third to Vahva in the Chicago (G3).

3. Vahva. Biggest disappointment of the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint was this gal as she finished eighth. Before that she was third behind Society in the Ballerina. But she stays ranked here because of her earlier season successes. She delivered an impressive win in the Chicago at Churchill Downs, running down Society in the stretch. Earlier she defeated Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1) with a comfortable two-length victory after finishing runner-up to the same rival in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in April.

4. Sweet Azteca. Was stunningly off the board at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth Stakes at Santa Anita. Before that she had been dominant this season winning four of her five starts. When she is on her game she is among the best in this division.

5. Ways and Means. Found the waters a bit too deep in the Breeders' Cup Filly & mare Sprint, where she checked in fifth. Last out she scored a win against older in the Gallant Bloom (G2). Before that win she scored an impressive win in the Test (G1) for her first stakes win.

Next 5: Scylla, Spirit Wind, Pleasant, One Magic Philly, Zeitlos

2-year-old males

1. Citizen Bull. Very impressive in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he was never really threatened and cruised to a wire-to-wire win. That’s two consecutive Grade 1s on the front end, following his impressive American Pharoah (G1) score. With a 3-for-4 record, he’s locked in as the Eclipse winner for his division. No debate needed.

2. Gaming. Followed his stablemate Citizen Bull around the oval in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to finish a clear runner-up, more than three lengths clear of the others. The Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner is 2-for-3 this season.

3. Chancer McPatrick. Off the board in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he stays near the top here. Why? Because those first three starts were impressive, with two Grade 1 wins that made him a standout early on.

4. East Avenue. He blew the break in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and for a horse who clearly needs the lead, that was game over. But here’s the thing. Champions don’t get excuses for missed break. They adapt or still make a race of it. He didn’t, winding up ninth. Before that, he looked strong, going wire-to-wire in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) for his second straight win.

5. Jonathan's Way. A mild disappointment in the Breeder's Cup, he finished seventh. Previous to that he won the Iroquois (G3) going wire to wire. He is 2-for-3 in his career.

Next 5: Getaway Car, Ferocious, Showcase, Tip Top Thomas, Owen Almighty

2-year-old fillies

1. Immersive. Aside from Thorpedo Anna's Distaff, no one on the dirt impressed more than this gal at the Breeders' Cup. And like Thorpedo, she’s a lock for the Eclipse. With a spotless 4-for-4 record and three Grade 1s under her belt, she’s off to great start to her career.

2. Vodka With a Twist. Runner-up again, this time to Immersive in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Gotta love seeing a 2-year-old filly with six starts under her belt already. This one’s 2-for-6, and although she hasn’t snagged a win in her last three outings, she’s been knocking on the door as runner-up in the Sorrento (G3) and Del Mar Debutante (G1) as well. Consistent, but still waiting to land the big one. 

3. Scottish Lassie. Fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, she was over nine lengths clear of the others. Before that she blew away the Frizette (G1) field by nine lengths.

4. Quickick. Third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, this daughter of McKinzie finished runner-up behind Immersive in the Alcibiades (G1) one start earlier.

5. Non Compliant. Now unbeaten in two starts, she made easy work of her first graded-stakes test in the Oak Leaf (G2) at Santa Anita, cruising past five rivals for the win. As a daughter of Tiz the Law, she already has pedigree on her side. Missed the Breeders' Cup.

Next 5: Quietside, La Cara, Tenma, Nooni, With the Angels

Slight edge to Sierra Leone for 3-year-old male Eclipse

With chaos in the female sprinter, turf female, turf male and older dirt male divisions, we’re also left with some debates in the 3-year-old male and older dirt female categories.

We have plenty of time to dissect these divisions, and the rankings above show where my preferences lie. My top three in each division represent my current voting stance, but given the tight races in several categories, my opinions could shift in the coming weeks.

Now, let’s turn our attention to a division that I initially thought was wrapped up after the Breeders’ Cup: the 3-year-old male Eclipse. Most of you probably assume Fierceness is the obvious choice, but I urge you to pause and ask why that is.

Let’s strip away the names and take a closer look:

Horse A’s 2024 Record:

Holy Bull Stakes (G3): 3rd, beaten 3 1/2 lengths

Florida Derby (G1): 1st, by 13 1/2 lengths

Kentucky Derby (G1): 15th, beaten 24 1/2 lengths

Jim Dandy Stakes (G2): 1st, by 1 length

Travers Stakes (G1): 1st, by a head

Breeders’ Cup Classic: 2nd, beaten 1 1/2 lengths

Horse B’s 2024 Record:

Risen Star Stakes (G2): 1st, by 1/2 length

Blue Grass Stakes (G1): 1st, by 1 1/2 lengths

Kentucky Derby (G1): 2nd, beaten a nose

Belmont Stakes (G1): 3rd, beaten 1 1/2 lengths

Jim Dandy (G2): 2nd, beaten by 1 length

Travers (G1): 3rd, beaten 1 3/4 lengths

Breeders’ Cup Classic: 1st, by 1 1/2 lengths

In their head-to-head matchups, they’re locked in a tie at 2-2.

Who really deserves the title?

Obviously I am talking about Fierceness and Sierra Leone. Sierra Leone danced more dances than Fierceness, competing admirably in two of the Triple Crown races. If he hadn’t lost the Kentucky Derby by a nose, the Eclipse in this division already would be his. Sure, he was beaten by Fierceness in the Travers, but let’s not kid ourselves. The Derby is a much bigger deal, and Fierceness finished that race way up the track. In all fairness to Fierceness, he was brilliant in his wins, but he also ran poorly in some races.

So, I wouldn’t call this a slam dunk for Fierceness. In fact, after the Breeders' Cup, I’m starting to lean toward Sierra Leone for my top vote. The first half of the season is just as critical as the second half. For Fierceness, forget about what he did as a 2-year-old. That in no way should have bearing on what he did this year. There is no equity carried over from one season to the next. Remember, no bias allowed here.

So why shouldn’t Sierra Leone be in the Eclipse conversation?

When it comes to the older dirt female division, at first glance, Idiomatic seems like the obvious choice, holding the No. 1 spot all season. But let’s dig a little deeper into the competition between Idiomatic and Adare Manor.

First off, I couldn’t care less how others vote. Do I think Adare Manor has a shot at the Eclipse in this division? Not really. Bob Baffert’s name attached to her instantly puts her at a disadvantage with many voters who harbor a bias against him. But for me, it’s all about the horses, not the trainers. So if we put those prejudices aside and focus solely on their resumes, this matchup is closer than you might think.

Idiomatic had a solid season with two Grade 1 wins, boasting a 3-for-5 record. No, she didn’t quite replicate last year’s magic, but she still triumphed in the La Troienne (G1) and Spinster (G1) and was the runner-up in two other tough contests before injury forced her retirement.

Adare Manor also faced an injury that sidelined her from the Breeders' Cup Distaff, but not before she finished her season with a 3-for-4 record, including Grade 1 wins in the Apple Blossom (G1) and Clement Hirsch (G1). She also snagged a victory in the Santa Margarita (G2) and finished second to Sweet Azteca in the Beholder Mile (G1).

I’m leaning toward Idiomatic mainly because of who she faced and who defeated her. But I can certainly understand the support for Adare Manor. If she had won her races on the East Coast and wasn’t trained by Baffert, she likely would be getting a lot more love from fans. It’s a shame how biases can cloud judgment when it comes to such talented horses.

Next week, I’ll take a deep dive into the first of the four divisions I consider to be in complete chaos: the turf female division.