Division rankings: Breeders' Cup contenders and pretenders

Since my dive into the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and Awesome Result last week, I’ve been wrestling with how to tackle this week’s piece. Should I spotlight a specific race or horse, as is my usual style? It’s a tough call on Breeders’ Cup weekend, given the avalanche of intriguing storylines that will shape the rankings below.

So, I’ve opted for a different approach this week, throwing out random Breeders’ Cup thoughts. I have musings on the original seven races, plus a nod to the Dirt Mile, which could have a significant say in the Eclipse award for 3-year-old males. This year is interesting, with several divisions wide open, so much so that at least six horses in some categories are still vying for their Eclipse. Typically, we’re down to just two or three contenders.

I see things through a very different lens than most, so I've got some bold and likely unpopular takes on a few horses and races.

Before I dive into Breeders' Cup 2024, let’s take a look at the rankings below. Next week, many of these divisions could have a completely new look.

Older dirt males

1. National Treasure. It’s tricky deal to argue for him without a Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile run, right? But honestly, he’s still got my vote if the older males flop in the Classic. Who else even makes sense in that case? No one. With two major Grade 1 wins this year and a razor-close finish in another, his resume speaks for itself, Breeders’ Cup entry or not.

2. Highland Falls. Last time out he delivered one of the most impressive performances we’ve seen in this division all season, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). It wasn’t just the win but how he achieved it. From the start he took the race to Arthur’s Ride, engaging in a spirited early battle. Highland Falls pulled ahead around the far turn and never looked back, crossing the finish line with an open-lengths win. Although his final quarter was notably slow, it remains the biggest win of his nine-race career. This season he has won half of his six starts, including the Blame (G3) at Churchill Downs in June. Could he take this Eclipse with a Breeders' Cup Classic win? Yes.

3. Subsanador. I had high hopes for this guy earlier in the season, but like many South America imports, he took his sweet time getting up to speed. The California Crown (G1) winner is trained by Richard Mandella, who’s had success with these types before, including Sandpit, Malek, Siphon and Gentlemen. Subsanador finally was starting to show what he’s made of. He had taken clear steps forward and was a legitimate player in the division but now has been put on the shelf until next season because of injury.

4. Pyrenees. A model of consistency, he’s 3-for-5 this season with runner-up finishes in two Grade 1s, the Stephen Foster and most recently the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He made it into the Breeders' Cup Classic, where another on-the-board finish wouldn't surprise me.

5. Tapit Trice. Slim pickings, but I’m going with Tapit Trice. He won the Woodward (G2) last out, beating Skippylongstocking. Neither of them is what I’d consider Grade 1 material, but a win’s a win. At least Tapit Trice managed to win a somewhat relevant race, taking down Skippylongstocking and, for what it’s worth, Crupi. He’s 30-1 on the morning line for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Next 5: Señor Buscador, Arthur’s Ride, Mixto, Skippylongstocking, Newgate

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Really a downer this past week when announced she will be retired and misss the Breeders' Cup Distaff. In her last start, she owned the Spinster (G1) again, making it back-to-back wins. I’ve was more impressed with her in her two losses this season than in her wins, but she’s still had a rock-solid year. No matter how the Breeders' Cup Distaff plays out, this one’s already earned my Eclipse vote in this division.

2. Adare Manor. Despite retirement, she will remain in these rankings for now. In her last start, a Clement L. Hirsch (G1) win, she showed us something new. Heart and a whole new gear. On the far turn it looked like she was in trouble, but then she blew past a solid field to win decisively. She was 3-for-4 this season with two Grade 1 victories, more than anyone else in this division. If the season ended today, she’d definitely make my top three on the Eclipse ballot, which is why she’s still holding her rank.

3. Raging Sea. She squeaked out a win in the Beldame (G2), but it was far from impressive. She had to go all out just to edge past Batucuda, a horse who’s basically an optional claimer and couldn’t even hit the board in two graded-stakes tries in Canada. Her upset over Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign (G1) still feels like a fluke, and if she somehow finds her way to the winner’s circle in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, I’ll be absolutely stunned.

4. Randomized. Engaged in an early battle with Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign but couldn’t keep up and faded to finish fifth, more than 15 lengths behind. But she did win the Ogden Phipps (G1) by upsetting Idiomatic earlier this season and will have another chance this fall. Hasn't worked for over 60 days and was not entered in the Breeders' Cup.

5. Sweet Azteca. Was stunningly off the board at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. Before that she had been dominant this season, winning four of her five starts. Won't run in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

Next 5: Scylla, Honor D Lady, Shotgun Hottie, Flying Connection, Desert Dawn

3-year-old males

1. Fierceness. He went into the Travers (G1) with a lot of question marks but answered them loud and clear, digging deep in the stretch to fend off Thorpedo Anna for a gutsy, popular win. He’s back on top of the division, but he’ll face a tougher field in the Breeders' Cup Classic and probably won’t get such a cozy pace setup. The Eclipse is his to win or lose if Preakness winner Seize the Grey comes up short in the Dirt Mile earlier in the day.

2. Dornoch. Really had no excuses in the Travers as he sat off the slow early fractions set by Batten Down. Still, he did win the Belmont Stakes and Haskell (G1). Out of the Eclipse race now because of his premature retirement, he will stay in my rankings for now because he is in the top three and would be on my Eclipse ballot if the season ended today.

3. Seize the Grey. The Preakness winner snapped his two-race losing streak with a big win in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), putting him back in the Eclipse conversation. This son of Arrogate now has some control of his Eclipse destiny. He needs to win the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and hope Fierceness gets defeated in the Classic.

4. Sierra Leone. Arguably the most consistent horse in this division, Sierra Leone once again fell short in a big race. But he performed as well as could be expected in the Travers, especially given the circumstances. Unlike Fierceness and Thorpedo Anna, he doesn’t have that tactical speed, which put him at a disadvantage with the slow pace. He’s clearly a top-two or top-three contender in this division. I still believe he’ll come through on a big day, and if he catches a favorable pace in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he could surprise.

5. Forever Young. He looked sharp winning the Japan Dirt Classic, his first race since getting robbed in the Kentucky Derby when he was fouled multiple times in the stretch. Now 5-for-6 in his career, only those two noses in the Kentucky Derby keep him from being unbeaten in his career. This guy’s my pick for the Breeders' Cup Classic, no question.

Next 5: Mystik Dan, Stronghold, Dragoon Guard, Muth, Catching Freedom

3-year-old fillies

1. Thorpedo Anna. She prevailed in the Cotillion at Parx by a diminishing neck for her fourth Grade 1 victory this season. Before the Cotillion she exceeded all expectations by raising her game to finish a strong runner-up in the Travers. The Cotillion saw Thorpedo Anna regress substantially speed-figure-wise from her previous race, calling into question the validity of some of the figures assigned in the Travers. Catches a huge break with the defection of Idiomatic in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. On paper at least, this Breeders' Cup Distaff has the weakest lineup in its history, with only one other Grade 1 winner entered, and that horse, Raging Sea, has only the one in August over Idiomatic.

2. Power Squeeze. Could do no batter than seventh in the Cotillion, beaten by nearly 10 lengths by Thorpedo Anna. Previously she was an impressive winner of the Alabama (G1), where she narrowly defeated Candied by a head. She has won three graded stakes this season.

3. Sugar Fish. Huge win in the Zenyatta (G2) last out, becoming the first in her division to defeat older in a meaningful race. Earlier she scored an open-lengths win in the Summertime Oaks (G2). She will run in the Breeders' Cup Distaff and has a real shot to surprise.

4. Candied. She didn’t embarrass herself facing older mares for the first time last out, finishing a solid third in the Spinster behind Idiomatic. Not bad for a 3-year-old stepping up against the big girls. This came on the heels of runner-up finishes in two straight Grade 1 races. She was second to Thorpedo Anna in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) and followed that with a runner-up in the Alabama. She also took home the Lady’s Secret at Monmouth before that. She consistently knocks on the door. It’s just a matter of time before she kicks it down. She too will try the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

5. Gun Song. Narrowly lost another one, this time in the Mother Goose (G2) last out to Tarifa. Prior to that she nearly pulled off a major upset in the Cotillion when she rallied after being passed by her rival to nearly come back and score the win. She has only one graded-stakes win this year but prepped for the Cotillion with a listed-stakes score and looks to be better now with age.

Next 5: Tarifa, Ways and Means, Leslie's Rose, Nothing Like You, Hope Road

Turf males

1. Johannes. Scored another big win last out in the City of Hope Mile (G2) at Santa Anita for his fourth graded-stakes win of the season. With a 7-for-10 career record, he’s cemented himself at the top spot here and will be among the favorites in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

2. Far Bridge. After a slow start to this season, Far Bridge is heating up at the right time. His win in the Joe Hirsch (G1) last out was his second straight Grade 1 win of the season. Now 3-for-6 on the season, he is very much in this Eclipse race. Will run in the Breeders' Cup Turf.

3. Carl Spackler. This guy just keeps getting better. He notched his second straight Grade 1 win in the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland, making him 4-for-5 this season. Now, he's right in the thick of the Eclipse race conversation. He will go next in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

4. Cogburn. He made a strong return in the Turf Sprint (G2) at Kentucky Downs with another impressive victory. He remains undefeated this year, at 3-for-3 this season. Although it’s tough for a turf sprinter to claim an Eclipse Award, Stormy Liberal managed it in 2018 when the division lacked a standout. Can Cogburn do the same this year? The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint is next.

5. Measured Time. Made his return to the races in the Sword Dancer (G1) but was upset and finished as the runner-up to Far Bridge. In his only other U.S. start this season he dominated the Manhattan on Belmont Stakes day, marking his first Grade 1 win.

Next 5: Master of the Seas, Silver Knott, Nation's Pride, Goliad, Win for the Money

Turf females

1. War Like Goddess. I have no idea who to place up top here, so consider this gal a place holder. Any one of at least eight ranked here will have an opportunity to claim the Eclipse at the Breeders' Cup, and even then this might not be decided until races after the Breeders' Cup. War Like Goddess ran very well in the Joe Hirsch last out against the males when runner-up to Far Bridge. She hasn't really slowed down even though she is now a 7-year-old. She has run well in all four of her starts this season, but has managed to win only once. Still, she is in the Eclipse mix. Will run in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Perhaps it all comes together for her this time around.

2. Anisette. She was disappointing in her last start, finishing third in the Mabee Stakes (G2) and missing her chance to claim the top spot in the division. Before that she cruised to an easy victory against an outclassed field in the Yellow Ribbon (G2) at Del Mar. She’s 2-for-3 this season with her other win coming in the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita on Memorial Day. She will run in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

3. Gina Romantica. Was super impressive last out in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland, defeating Chili Flag and Whitebeam for her second win in this race in as many years. Gina has made a habit of showing up at Keeneland, winning a Grade 1 there three years in a row.

4. Chili Flag. Rebounded from her last-out disappointment in the Diana (G1) to finish runner-up to Gina in the First Lady. The Just a Game (G1) winner on Belmont Stakes weekend deserves to reside in the top five. She will run in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

5. Whitebeam.  She couldn’t have picked a worse time to throw in a clunker, finishing ninth in the First Lady when the spotlight was on her. That kind of performance knocked her out of the No. 1 spot. Just last month, she was on top of the world after winning the Diana against the deepest field of female turf horses we’ve seen this year. Before that, she was runner-up in two graded stakes, so it's not like she’s been off her game. But that First Lady flop? I didn't see that coming.

Next 5: Moira, Didia, Beaute Cachee, Hang the Moon, Full Count Felicia

Male sprinters

1. The Chosen Vron. Remains at the top despite his upset loss in the Pat O’Brien (G2), where he finished a close runner-up to Raging Torrent. It was his first defeat in six starts this season. By today’s standards his record is remarkable, with 19 wins from 25 starts and only two finishes off the board. Eighteen of those wins have come in stakes races. Now he is on the vet's list at Del Mar and won't be able to run in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, which is a huge blow to his Eclipse chances.

2. Mullikin. Like Elite Power a few years ago, this horse has emerged as a late-season star. He scored his first Grade 1 victory in the Forego at Saratoga after his first graded-stakes win in the Nerud (G2) at Aqueduct in July. Overall this 4-year-old colt by Violence is 5-for-9 in his career. The Breeders' Cup Sprint is next.

3. Gun Pilot. Finished as runner-up to Mullikin in the Forego last time out and was third as the favorite in the True North (G2) on Belmont Stakes weekend. Earlier he notched his first stakes win in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1). Also will run in the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

4. Nakatomi. Upset last out in the Phoenix (G2), where he finished a distant runner-up. But he has shown in the past that he can rebound with big scores. He had a nice win when defeating Skelly in the Vanderbilt (G1) at Saratoga for his first victory of 2024. Before that, he ran third in both of his starts this season. He’ll be looking to improve on his third-place finish in last year’s Breeders' Cup Sprint this year.

5. Skelly. Runner-up to Nakatomi in the Vanderbilt two back and runner-up again in a listed stakes at Churchill Downs last out. He's on a three-race losing streak, all second-place finishes. Despite the string of silver medals, I still think he’s a top-five player in this division. Will get a chance to right the ship in the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

Next 5: Raging Torrent, Straight No Chaser, Domestic Product, Federal Judge, Mufasa

Female sprinters

1. Vahva. Disappointed as the favorite in the Ballerina (G1), finishing third behind Society. Before that she delivered an impressive win in the Chicago (G3) at Churchill Downs, running down Society in the stretch. Earlier she defeated Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1) with a comfortable two-length victory after finishing runner-up to the same rival in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in April. Still believe she is the horse to beat in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

2. Society. Scored her first win of 2024 in a big one, defeating Vahva and Scylla in the Ballerina. In her only other start this season she was third to Vahva in the Chicago (G3). She's back in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, looking to improve on her fourth-place finish from last year.

3. Ways and Means. Another win, this time against older in the Gallant Bloom (G2). Before this latest win she scored an impressive win in the Test (G1) for her first stakes win. I guess she is a major player in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, where she will face far tougher than she has ever faced before.

4. Sweet Azteca. Was stunningly off the board at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth Stakes at Santa Anita. Before that she had been dominant this season winning four of her five starts. When she is on her game she is among the best in this division. Will miss the Breeders' Cup.

5. Scylla. Runner-up in the Ballerina last out to Society after running in two-turn races. Has won two graded stakes this season. Her connections decided to opt for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint rather than the Distaff, believing that sprinting will suit her better than mixing it up with the big girls in a longer race.

Next 5: Zeitlos, Spirit Wind, Accede, Soul of an Angel, One Magic Philly

2-year-old males

1. Chancer McPatrick. I’m giving the nod to this guy over East Avenue. He already has two Grade 1 wins and is undefeated in three starts. Yes, he lacks early speed, but he sure does make things exciting turning for home. This McKinzie colt thrives coming from behind, and with all the speed expected on Breeders' Cup day, the Juvenile should set up perfectly for him. His Champagne (G1) win at a mile was impressive, and it’s clear he’ll only improve as the distances get longer. Will vie with East Avenue for favoritism in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

2. East Avenue. He was nothing short of spectacular in the Breeders' Futurity (G1), going wire to wire for his second straight win. This Medaglia d’Oro colt has the early speed to burn, but come Breeders' Cup time, he’ll face a handful of other front-runners. The question is, will anyone be fast enough to keep up? Right now, it looks like he might be too much for them all. And with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile shaping up to be one of the better editions we have seen in recent years, this showdown between the top two here could be one of the best of the Breeders' Cup races.

3. Jonathan's Way. One of the fastest 2-year-olds to have raced so far in the season, he won the Iroquois (G3) going wire to wire. He also is 2-for-2 in his career and is a major player in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

4. Citizen Bull. Another early speedster, he too scored a wire-to-wire win last out but his came in the American Pharoah (G1). This son of Into Mischief is 2-for-3 in his career, and he won his maiden from slightly off the pace. Also will run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

5. Ferocious. This highly regarded Flatter colt has been unable to match his explosive maiden win, settling for the runner-up spot in his last two starts in Grade 1 stakes, both as the favorite. Likely will be an underlay again in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Next 5: Gaming, Getaway Car, Showcase, Tip Top Thomas, Owen Almighty

2-year-old fillies

1. Immersive. This gal is a clear No. 1 right now, but she regressed in her last out Alcibiades (G1) win as far as speed figures are concerned. Not sure whether that's a good thing or bad thing. Either way, despite her two Grade 1 wins already and her 3-for-3 career record, several others who will line up against her in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies have run faster. I'm skeptical she can make it 4-for-4 next out.

2. Scottish Lassie. Maybe it was the extra distance, but this filly came alive in the Frizette (G1), blowing away the field by nine lengths and clocking the fastest speed figures of anyone in the top 10. That was only her second career start after a third-place finish in a Saratoga maiden sprint. If this daughter of McKinzie runs like that again, she’ll be standing in the winner's circle after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

3. Non Compliant. Now unbeaten in two starts, she made easy work of her first graded-stakes test in the Oak Leaf (G2) at Santa Anita, cruising past five rivals for the win. As a daughter of Tiz the Law, she already has pedigree on her side. Will miss the Breeders' Cup.

4. Quickick. Another daughter of McKinzie, this gal finished runner-up behind Immersive in the Alcibiades. The Alcibiades was her first graded-stakes try after she broke her maiden in her second career start. Will try Immersive again in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

5. Vodka With a Twist. Gotta love seeing a 2-year-old filly with five starts under her belt already. This one’s 2-for-5, and although she hasn’t snagged a win in her last two outings, she’s been knocking on the door as runner-up in the Sorrento (G3) and Del Mar Debutante (G1). Consistent, but still waiting to land the big one. Will also join the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies party.

Next 5: Quietside, La Cara, Tenma, Nooni, With the Angels

Breeders' Cup 2024 has a distinct international flavor

How many Breeders’ Cup races will Japan take home? One? Two? Maybe even five? It’s a real possibility that our friends across the Pacific could walk away with serious hardware.

While everyone’s buzzing about their trio of stars in the Classic on Saturday, let’s not overlook Friday’s contenders. Shin Believe is a serious player in the Juvenile, having posted a speed figure that rivals any other entry in the field.

In the Juvenile Fillies, keep an eye on American Bikini. Her only blemish came when she faced males in her debut, finishing a close second. Ecor Sieg is the favorite in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, and Awesome Result is poised to make waves in the Distaff. She’s my pick to win. Don’t forget Remake, who could be a serious threat in the Sprint.

As for the Classic, I’m again all in on Forever Young, representing Japan and primed to claim the glory he was denied in the Kentucky Derby. 

I keep reading that the Breeders’ Cup Classic is wide open, and honestly, that’s a new one for me. From where I stand, it’s anything but.

Of the 14 horses entered, I can only see three or maybe four making it to the winner’s circle, Fierceness, City Of Troy and Forever Young. Ushba Tesoro? He’s a wild card, but I’m not convinced he’s at the same level as last year when I backed him in this race. Beyond that, it’s slim pickings. If I had to be pressed for another name or two, I guess Arthur’s Ride or Sierra Leone, but those are a stretch.

Next being pegged at 8-1 on the morning line for the Classic is laughable. Sure, he’s a solid horse at marathon distances against suspect competition, but the fourth betting choice in this field of 12? Insanity. Some folks think City Of Troy, not Next, is the weekend’s biggest underlay, and they might be onto something. This highly hyped contender has a dirt pedigree, but he’s an all-or-nothing bet. I could easily see him either pulling off a surprising win or floundering in his dirt debut.

You know it's been a rough year for the older male dirt division when I can say with confidence that if any of the eight U.S.-based contenders wins the Classic, they'll probably snag the Eclipse. If none come through, we are left with the idle National Treasure. This is the type of season where if a horse like Ushba Tesoro were to win the Classic, I would give him serious consideration for my Eclipse vote.

Thorpedo Anna is running in what might be the most underwhelming Breeders' Cup Distaff field ever. Think I’m exaggerating? Look at the numbers. The rest of the field has collectively scored only two Grade 1 wins.

Raging Sea's came in a nail-biter over Idiomatic in August, and Candied won hers as a 2-year-old. This isn’t Thorpedo Anna’s fault, I’m just laying out the facts. There is a silver lining. Don’t sleep on Japan’s unbeaten 4-year-old filly, Awesome Result. She adds a layer of intrigue with her 7-for-7 record, and she could be any kind. Still, anything less than a win for Thorpedo Anna would be a disappointment.

The majority of you rooting for War Like Goddess in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf have good reason. This mare has endured her fair share of heartbreak. Remember 2021 at Del Mar? She came so close in this race and then missed out on the Eclipse vote a few months later. She’s been at or near the top of her division ever since but has somehow fallen short in end-of-year voting for three consecutive years. Ironically, 2024 has been her least productive season, yet here she stands with another shot at an Eclipse, largely because no other in her division has managed to stack up the big wins. Will this finally be her year, or will she come up just short once again?

The Dirt Mile has Domestic Product as the morning-line favorite. Interesting. I’ll go ahead and disagree with that. Clear overlays in the race are Saudi Crown at 5-1, Seize the Grey at 10-1, Mufasa at 12-1 and Post Time at 12-1.

If Thorpedo Anna and Fierceness both lose, does that crack the door for another contender in the horse of the year race? Probably not, but there have to be three horses as finalists for horse of the year, so which horse could sneak in?

If Carl Spackler pulls off a win in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, he’ll wrap up the season with three consecutive Grade 1 wins, securing the turf male Eclipse and likely earning a spot as a horse of the year finalist. The same can be said about Far Bridge. After a slow start to 2024, if he wins the Breeders’ Cup Turf he too would wrap his season up with three consecutive Grade 1 wins.

Few would have predicted those latter two would be in this position.

When it comes to the turf male Eclipse, it's a four-horse race. In the running are Carl Spackler, the top-ranked Johannes also competing in the Mile, Far Bridge aiming for the Turf, and Cogburn taking his shot in the Turf Sprint.

We don’t often see horses like Rebel’s Romance nowadays, This guy defines the label globetrotter. This season alone, he’s taken his connections on a whirlwind tour, racing in Qatar, Dubai, Hong Kong, the United Kingdom and Germany. With a previous Breeders’ Cup Turf victory under his belt from 2022, another win this year would push his impressive tally to seven top-level scores.

Next week, I’ll dive into the major storylines that emerge from this weekend’s races, complete with freshly updated rankings. Most of the divisional Eclipse awards will likely be settled, but I won’t be surprised if some still have debate, particularly for horse of the year.