Division rankings: Breeders’ Cup Classic sharpens into focus

Last weekend’s Pacific Classic and Jockey Club Gold Cup promised fireworks. At Del Mar, the popular No. 2 ranked 3-year-old Journalism was to face two of the top older males, Fierceness and Nysos. And at Saratoga, the stage was set for a showdown between the division’s top older dirt males, Mindframe and Sierra Leone.

But when the dust settled, it was less about the storylines and more about relief that catastrophe had been avoided in both of these Grade 1 races.

In the Pacific Classic, the matchup lost some luster when Nysos scratched and nearly unraveled when Fierceness ducked in sharply to his left after the break, narrowly missing the temporary rail. Meanwhile, the Jockey Club Gold Cup turned chaotic. Mindframe lost his rider, White Abarrio briefly carried two jockeys, and Sierra Leone was forced to veer sharply to avoid the fallen rider, nearly being pulled up himself before continuing on.

Despite the chaos, the Breeders’ Cup Classic picture is, in my opinion, much clearer now. When the gates open at Del Mar, it appears only three horses have a realistic chance to dethrone the expected favorite, Sovereignty.

I’ll get to which three in a moment, but first, here’s an updated look at the older dirt male and 3-year-old male rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He was very fortunate to escape unscathed from a disastrous Jockey Club Gold Cup. He retains his place at the top for now, but the focus shifts to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Still, as much respect as he commands, it’s hard to envision him winning the Classic coming in off a four-month layoff.

2. Sierra Leone. Ran a remarkable race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup after having to veer hard to his right near the start to avoid the fallen jock who was aboard Mindframe. Jockey Flavien Prat nearly pulled Sierra Leone up, but after the colt appeared fine around the first turn, he let him continue despite being 18 lengths back at one point in the race. Considering the chaos, where most believe he lost five to seven lengths, Sierra Leone still managed to rally for second, beaten just over a length. He remains one of only three with a legitimate chance to topple Sovereignty in the Classic and to join Tiznow as the only back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Classic winners.

3. Fierceness. He really showed me something in his Pacific Classic win, overcoming a near-disastrous start before surging to the lead midrace and never looking back. Clearly at home at Del Mar, if he delivers his A game in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he’ll be awfully tough to reel in. He joins the short list of three with a legitimate chance to stop Sovereignty.

4. Nysos. His scratch from the Pacific Classic ended any realistic Eclipse hopes in this division. Connections now point to the Goodwood (G1) later this month, which might prove a better stepping stone. Rather than stretching from 8 1/2 to 10 furlongs, he’ll get the nine-furlong test of the Goodwood. A strong showing there would earn him a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

5. Antiquarian. He emerged as the winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup and has quietly put together a solid season, with placings in the Suburban (G2) and Blame (G3). I’m still not convinced he truly belongs at this level. But much like the 3-year-old division, this group is extremely top-heavy, with a significant gap between the top four and everyone else

Next five: Highland Falls, White Abarrio, Locked, Hit Show, Phileas Fogg.

3-year-old males

1. Sovereignty. He dominated an overmatched Travers field and now sits just one win away from horse of the year. His résumé has grown with each start, and he now stands as the most accomplished Kentucky Derby winner post-Derby since American Pharoah. He’ll train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where the divisional Eclipse might hang in the balance and horse of the year certainly will.

2. Journalism. Best of the rest in the Pacific Classic, but his loss to Fierceness probably dashed any hopes of staying in this Eclipse race.

3. Baeza. Ran his heart out in the Jim Dandy (G2) only to be second best, dropping a one-length decision to Sovereignty. Still in search of his first stakes win, but he is clearly in the top three of his division despite that fact. Expected next in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1).

4. Gosger. Would be a dual Grade 1 winner if not for the heroics of Journalism. His last two starts, the Preakness and Haskell, have been solid runner-up finishes. Won the Lexington (G3) this season. Will run next in the Pennsylvania Derby.

5. Goal Oriented. Hasn't won a stakes race yet but has run extremely well in the Preakness and then the Haskell. Will run next in the Pennsylvania Derby.

Next 5: Burnham Square, Chunk of Gold, Magnitude, Coal Battle, Patch Adams.

With Mindframe now confirmed to train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic after escaping unscathed from the Jockey Club Gold Cup fiasco, the question lingers, can he really win the Classic with his last meaningful race back in June? My answer is simple, no. My apologies to Mindframe fans, but that’s my opinion. I just find it implausible that any horse can win the Breeders’ Cup Classic coming off a 128-day layoff. So that leaves three horses with a realistic shot to defeat Sovereignty.

Sierra Leone is one of them. His runner-up effort in the chaotic Jockey Club Gold Cup was remarkable, and he remains a serious Classic contender. Like Sovereignty, he shows up every time, with a similar running style and speed figures that are comparable. If there’s a horse capable of matching Sovereignty’s late punch, it’s Sierra Leone.

He’s been out of the spotlight for months, but Japan’s Forever Young is set to return on Oct. 1 in the Nippon TV Cup at Funabashi, the same race Japan’s Ushba Tesoro used as his final prep before the 2023 Breeders’ Cup. I expect Forever Young to come back even better than he was last winter. And if he reproduces the form he flashed in the Saudi Cup (G1), he’s a serious threat. Like Sovereignty and Sierra Leone, he does his best running from off the pace.

Last but not least, the biggest threat to Sovereignty is Fierceness if he fires his best.

Unlike the others, his greatest weapon is speed. Ten seconds into the Pacific Classic, nearly all of his supporters must have thought his chances were gone. After veering sharply left and nearly slamming into the temporary rail, it looked like the old knock on Fierceness, that he needs everything to go his way to run big, was about to be proven right once again. I’ll admit, I was among the doubters. But Fierceness had other ideas.

Fierceness didn’t just overcome the Pacific Classic adversity, he thrived in it. Making a bold midrace move from inside and behind horses, he surged to the front, opened up two lengths turning for home and widened to more than three at the wire. Journalism never threatened and settled for a distant second. In his 12 prior starts, we hadn’t seen this version of Fierceness. This was a different horse. And come Nov. 1, his ability to get involved early could well be the difference.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Credit where it’s due, she just wins. Last out, she dug in to edge Dorth Vader by a nose in the Personal Ensign (G1), all but clinching another Eclipse with her fourth win in five starts this season. There might still be a contender or two out west with something to say in this division, but she simply keeps finding ways to get it done.

2. Seismic Beauty. Scored a nice win last out in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1), going wire to wire. Clearly the fastest horse in the division on paper in 2025, she will be a tough one to beat if she can stay healthy this fall. 

3. Kopion. I thought she ran a sneaky-good race when closing from last to finish second behind Seismic Beauty in the Clement Hirsch. The added distance didn't bother her, and there’s no reason to think she can’t handle the nine furlongs of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Her connections now have a choice. Stretch out and take a swing at the Distaff or cut back to sprints, where she’s already proven to be among the best.

4. Dorth Vader. Nearly pulled off another Grade 1 win in the Personal Ensign when losing the bob at the wire to Thorpedo Anna. That might be the margin that costs her an Eclipse. She won the Phipps (G1) in June for her only win this year.

5. Leslie's Rose. She checked in third in the Personal Ensign, though a distant third, more than nine lengths behind Dorth Vader. Prior to that, she picked up her first graded win of the season in the Shuvee (G2) at Saratoga and earlier finished third in the Vagrancy (G3)

Next five: Cavalieri, Richi, Raging Sea, Randomized, Dazzling Move.

3-year-old fillies

1. Nitrogen. Showed up in the Alabama (G1) and proved much the best to rocket to the top of this division. This turf standout now will stick to the dirt as she will look for one more race before the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

2. Good Cheer. Rebounded from her disastrous Acorn (G1) to run a very good second to Nitrogen in the Alabama. Not out of the Eclipse race here.

3. Scottish Lassie. Don't look now, but this gal is very close to the top after a dominating score in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). Before that she was third in the Acorn (G1). Should run next in the Cotillion (G1) in September. 

4. La Cara. Didn't really run her race when off the board in the Alabama. Previously she was the dominant winner of the Acorn. She has two Grade 1 wins on the season.

5. Quietside. Didn’t look like she cared for the slop in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), fading to sixth. Before that, she delivered a gutsy win in the Fantasy (G2), outdueling Simply Joking in a thrilling stretch battle. Will continue to drop if she doesn't run soon.

Next five: Drexel Hill, Five G, Simply Joking, Kilwin, Margie's Intention.

Turf males

1. Deterministic. He has rattled off three straight graded-stakes wins, including back-to-back Grade 1s. His latest was a dominant performance in the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga after a big score in the shortened nine-furlong Manhattan (G1) the day after the Belmont. He’s 3-for-4 on the year and very much trending in the right direction.

2. Formidable Man. He captured the Del Mar Mile (G2) last out, his second straight graded-stakes victory following the Eddie Read (G2). That gives him three graded wins on the year, having also taken the Kilroe Mile (G1) earlier this season. 

3. Far Bridge. Ran his worst race of the season last out in the Sword Dancer (G1), finishing off the board. Still, I won't drop him too far given his résumé this season, which features three graded-stakes victories.

4. Fort Washington. Scored his first Grade 1 last out in the Arlington Million, a breakthrough moment after 27 starts and three Grade 3 wins. At 6, this veteran is finally having his breakout season, with two other graded-stakes wins already on the résumé. Returns to action this weekend in the Kentucky Turf Cup (G2).

5. Spirit of St Louis. He’s picked up two Grade 1 wins this year, including a score in the Turf Classic (G1) on Derby day, but you wouldn’t know it from his recent form. He finished a dull eighth in the Fourstardave (G1), more than four lengths behind Deterministic, and was nowhere to be found in the Manhattan before that. It’s easy to forget he looked like a turf star just a few months ago.

Next five: El Cordobes, Integration, King of Gosford, Redistricting, Zulu Kingdom.

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. She gutted out a game win in the E. P. Taylor (G1) to hold her spot on top here. It was her second Grade 1 of the season and, remarkably, her fifth overall in just 12 starts, the fastest to five since Rushing Fall matched the feat five years ago.

2. Excellent Truth. She finally broke through for her first Grade 1 win last time out in the Diana after finishing runner-up in her three prior attempts. The win, though impressive, isn't enough for me to push her above She Feels Pretty, who would prevail if the Eclipse vote were held today.

3. Dynamic Pricing. Was third in the Diana, over four lengths behind the top two ranked in this division. Before that she scored a win in the Just a Game for her first top-level score. 

4. Special Wan. Scored in the Ladies Turf (G3) last out in only her third start this season. Still, she has been good finishing third behind Dynamic Pricing in the Just a Game and winning the Honey Fox (G3)

5. Bellezza. Won the Flower Bowl (G2) last out and the Sheepshead Bay (G3) earlier this season. In between she placed in the New York (G1) behind She Feels Pretty and the Glens Falls (G2).

Next five: Beach Bomb, Heredia, Be Your Best, Ag Bullet, Saffron Moon.

Male sprinters

1. Book'em Danno. His Forego (G1) victory only further separated him from the rest of the division. That’s now three straight major sprint wins. Even if he skips the Breeders’ Cup, it’s hard to envision voting for anyone else for this Eclipse. This gelding has had an outstanding season and, for me, won’t be penalized if his connections choose to bypass Del Mar.

2. Patch Adams. Don’t look now, but this 3-year-old has clearly found his niche sprinting after failed attempts going longer. He has won back-to-back Grade 1 races against his classmates, most recently the Jerkens at Saratoga. If he were to add the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, would it be enough to unseat Book’em Danno if the Danno didn’t show up? For me, the answer is still no.

3. Dr. Venkman. This gelding ran big last out in winning the Pat O'Brien (G2) and stamping himself as a Breeders' Cup Sprint contender. Remember, he was second to Nysos earlier this season in the Triple Bend (G3)

4. Nysos. Scratched out of the Pacific Classic and in his last race he stretched out in the San Diego (G2) to score another win. I won't rule him out sprinting or going back to a mile. It will depend on the outcome of his next start, the Goodwood at Santa Anita later this month. 

5. Straight No Chaser. The reigning Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion disappointed in Dubai, finishing eighth in the Golden Shaheen (G1). Before that he kicked off 2025 with a win in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G2) in Saudi Arabia. He too likely will fall from this spot soon.

Next five: Mullikin, Booth, Lovesick Blues, Captain Cook, Scotland.

Female sprinters

1. Kopion. Even after her loss to Sweet Azteca in the Great Lady M (G2), she holds onto the top spot for now. Before that, she blew past her 8-1 morning line in the Derby City Distaff (G1), powering home with authority. With Kopion, Sweet Azteca and Ways and Means all likely Del Mar-bound, this top-heavy division is setting the stage for one of the Breeders’ Cup’s most anticipated showdowns. Last out she ran a solid second in the Clement Hirsch at 8 1/2 furlongs, but a return to sprinting could still be in the cards.

2. Sweet Azteca. Scored her second win this season last out in the Rancho Bernardo (G3). This came after her remarkable comeback win in the Great Lady M (G2), where she defeated Kopion. That came nine months to the day after her last race, a stunning off-the-board finish at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth (G3) at Santa Anita. A major player in this division when she is right.

3. Hope Road. This West Coast-based star dominated the Ballerina at Saratoga, earning her first Grade 1 victory. The win also flattered Kopion, whom she had been chasing earlier in the year. She now looks like a major player for the Breeders’ Cup.

4. Ways and Means. Absolutely dominated the Bed o’ Roses (G2), drawing off by more than seven lengths and staking her claim as likely the top female sprinter on the East Coast. Before that, she was a solid third in the Derby City Distaff (G1) behind top-ranked Kopion.

5. Two Sharp. Has made only one appearance this season but made it count, cruising to an easy win in the Winning Colors (G3) at Churchill Downs, taking down Hope Road and the rest with little trouble.

Next five: Nic's Style, Richi, Scylla, Vahva, Positano Sunset.