Division rankings: Baffert lurks on the Kentucky Derby trail

Trainer Bob Baffert hasn’t been a major factor on the Kentucky Derby trail in recent years for several reasons, most notably his three-year suspension from Churchill Downs after the failed post-race drug test of 2021 winner Medina Spirit, a result that led to the colt’s disqualification months later.

Baffert returned to Churchill Downs last year with only the long shot Citizen Bull, who finished 15th. His re-emergence in Louisville with legitimate win contenders still feels inevitable, and this weekend he could send out a trio in California’s first meaningful test for Kentucky Derby hopefuls, the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at a mile around two turns.

Desert Gate will draw most of the attention after his graded-stakes success at 2, but another Baffert runner appears to be flying under the radar. Before diving into the Lewis and the colt I believe could emerge as his best Derby prospect, here are the updated 3-year-old male rankings.

3-year-old males

1. Nearly. A placeholder here for now as I find it hard to believe another won't take his place up here. He was impressive in the Holy Bull (G3) on Saturday, but one has to wonder what level of competition he beat. Now his connections may wait two months for the Florida Derby (G1) as his next start. The Holy Bull was his first stakes win.

2. Ted Noffey. He capped a 4-for-4 season with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, giving him three Grade 1 victories and the Eclipse as the top 2-year-old. Although I’m not convinced he would have been a serious Kentucky Derby contender once the distances stretch out, there’s no denying he was an above-average 2-year-old by modern standards and the clear leader of this division. On the shelf now, he will continue to drop in the coming weeks as others race.

3. Brant. The division’s hype horse heading into the Breeders’ Cup, he backed it up with a game third-place finish. Added distance likely will blunt his effectiveness, but his body of work so far places him firmly among the division’s best.

4. Obliteration. Crushed a listed-stakes field in his first start as a 3-year-old. He probably has distance limitations like so many who will be listed here early on, but he deserves this spot for now. Will run in the Saudi Derby (G3) next.

5. Strategic Risk. Like Obliteration, he easily won his first start at age 3 last out in the listed Smarty Jones at Oaklawn. The waters will get deeper from here, but he looks to have matured greatly from age 2. Runs Friday in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn

Next 10: Napoleon Solo, Further Ado, Paladin, Litmus Test, Intrepido, Commandment, Golden Tempo, Plutarch, Blackout Time, Bravaro.

A couple of weeks ago, I took part in a mock Kentucky Derby draft hosted by Horse Racing Nation’s Ron Flatter. I also participated last year, and I won the draft when three of my four selections reached the starting gate, and one, Sovereignty, won the race.

This year, after some deliberation, I made the Bob Baffert trainee Plutarch my first-round selection. The objective in a draft like this is simple: Get as many of your picks into the starting gate as possible, which naturally steers you toward connections who will do whatever it takes to be in Louisville on the first Saturday in May. Choosing a Baffert runner certainly improves those odds, but beyond that, Plutarch stands as my top Kentucky Derby future at this stage.

Barring a late scratch from the Robert B. Lewis this weekend, never out of the question with multiple Baffert entries, Plutarch is the colt I’m most eager to see.

He nearly captured the American Pharoah (G1) last fall, looming a winner in deep stretch before finishing a close third behind Intrepido and Desert Gate. That effort came in just his third career start, after runner-up finishes in maiden company behind Intrepido and in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes (G3).

Returned to the turf on Breeders’ Cup weekend, Plutarch ran third in the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes and then a month later in late November broke his maiden over the grass course of Del Mar with an impressive score.

Although he has shown a clear affinity for turf, we know he can handle dirt as well. His five career starts provide a solid foundation moving forward, and when paired with a pedigree that includes multiple Grade 1 winner Stellar Wind as his dam, his appeal is obvious.

A win this weekend would propel him toward the top of many Kentucky Derby contender lists, though he already is near the top of mine. Even in defeat, depending on the trip, the long-term outlook remains bright for a colt who should improve with distance.

Desert Gate, Baffert’s other high-profile runner, is formidable as well and would make a similar leap with a victory.

If this is the year Baffert returns to Louisville loaded with legitimate Derby contenders, this weekend’s race should provide the first meaningful clue.

Older dirt males

1. Skippylongstocking. Yes, he rockets to the top spot as we turn the page to 2026. He captured the Pegasus World Cup (G1), the biggest race this division has offered so far this season, and he faced some who were ranked below here, and he did so convincingly. For the first time in his career, he sits atop these rankings.

2. Sovereignty. He dominated an overmatched field in the Travers (G1), cementing a résumé that already places him among the most accomplished Kentucky Derby winners since American Pharoah. At the time, the Travers felt like a possible curtain call, but that doesn't appear to be the case now. If he does indeed run as a 4-year-old, expect a carefully managed campaign with no more than three or four starts.

3. Nysos. He ground out a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile as the heavy favorite, though it fell short of the emphatic statement many expected against that field. He came back a few weeks ago to win the Pincay Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita. Through eight career starts he has only one loss, a neck defeat in last year's Churchill Downs Stakes (G1). The prospect of his return this season is welcome news for an older dirt male division that, when all is said and done, could be thin in 2026. The Saudi Cup (G1) is his next start.

4. Journalism. He delivered a career-best performance in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, finishing fourth and beaten by less than four lengths by the winner. Before that, he was runner-up to Fierceness in the Pacific Classic (G1). It was a strong campaign for the 3-year-old, one that clearly hinted at further improvement. Now officially a 4-year-old, he returned to his Santa Anita stable from Bridlewood Farm in Florida. The colt’s training routine will be standard, jogging, galloping and resumption of workouts when trainer Mike McCarthy deems him ready.

5. White Abarrio. Ran very well in his seasonal debut last out in the Pegasus when runner-up to Skippyongstocking. Was well clear of the rest and still has gas in the tank now at age 7.

Next five: Baeza, Magnitude, Nevada Beach, Hit Show, Knightsbridge.

Older dirt females

1. Cavalieri. She missed the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, but Cavalieri’s performance in the Zenyatta (G2) was still an eye-opener, particularly in light of a disastrous break and a six-month layoff. If she can stay healthy, she will be a handful for any member of this division. Stays here for now until those below start racing. Nearing a return to the worktab.

2. Nitrogen. She exceeded expectations with a runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, a performance that secured her the 3-year-old filly Eclipse for 2025. Before the Breeders' Cup she delivered a solid second-place effort in the Spinster (G1), finishing behind Gin Gin. She can move up to the top spot this weekend with a win in the Bayakoa (G3) at Oaklawn

3. Clicquot. Her fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff was a respectable effort and capped a late-season surge. She was a surprise winner of the Cotillion (G1) before the Breeders’ Cup and had reeled off four consecutive victories, including the Indiana Oaks (G3).

4. Seismic Beauty. She turned in a disappointing effort as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, easing through the wire and finishing second to last. Before that she delivered a strong, front-running performance to capture the Clement L. Hirsch (G1), going gate to wire. Another one who struggles to stay sound. She recently was sent to Baffert's division at Los Alamitos to prepare for her 2026 campaign.

5. Good Cheer. She clearly was not the same filly who captured the Kentucky Oaks (G1), finishing off the board in the Cotillion and beaten by more than six lengths. Looks to get back on track in 2026.

Next five: Nafisa, Regaled, Shred the Gnar, Fully Subscribed, Grand Job.

3-year-old fillies

1. Explora. Explora was an Eclipse contender in a wide-open 2-year-old filly division and, at least for now, stands above the rest. She dominated in her 2026 debut last out in the Santa Ynez Stakes, running away by over five lengths.

2. Zany. Dominant winner of the Demoiselle (G2), with her only other start in a win over maidens. Still not sure what to make yet of this daughter of American Pharoah.

3. Super Corredora. Although her Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies victory was impressive, she needs to show me it wasn't a fluke, given it was her only stakes start at age 2. Despite the single stakes start, she was voted the 2-year-old filly Eclipse. Makes her seasonal debut this weekend in the Las Virgenes Stakes at Santa Anita.

4. Percy’s Bar. She finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and appears to be moving in the right direction. She clearly was the best horse in the Alcibiades (G1), crossing the wire first before being disqualified for stretch interference, a performance that followed a runner-up finish in the Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga.

5. Taken by the Wind. Made her 2026 debut a winning one last out in the Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds to run her record to 3-for-3. She won the Pocahontas (G3) last year at age 2.

Next five: Bella Ballerina, Tommy Jo, Bottle of Rouge, On Time Girl, Consequent.

Turf males

1. Deterministic. He has put together three consecutive graded-stakes victories capped by back-to-back Grade 1 wins. Most recently he dominated the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga after capturing the shortened 1 1/8-mile Manhattan (G1) the day after the Belmont Stakes. He finished 3-for-4 in 2025.

2. Formidable Man. He turned in a career-best effort in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, finishing second and quieting critics who questioned whether he had been flattered by softer California competition. On the season he captured three graded stakes, including the Kilroe Mile (G1), earning his place among the division’s top contenders in 2026.

3. Rhetorical. Finished 4-for-5 in 2025. His only loss was a fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Mile, which came one race after his win in the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland.

4. Wolfie's Dynaghost. A winner of two graded stakes in a row, he won the Fort Lauderdale (G3) last out in late December to finish off 2025 with four wins from six starts.

5. Gold Phoenix. Before his fifth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, he had rattled off back-to-back graded-stakes victories. Now an 8-year-old gelding, he remains a familiar presence in the division.

Next five: Test Score, Cabo Spirit, Redistricting, Layabout, Program Trading.

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. She once again showed up in a big way, turning in a gutsy performance in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf over a distance I felt stretched her limitations. She finished second and did more than enough over the course of the season to secure the Eclipse in this division in 2025. She won three of her five starts and finished second in the other two. Expected to return this season.

2. Shisospicy. The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner is on a five-race winning streak in the U.S. She was dominant in all three of her graded-stakes victories in 2025, which led to her winning the Eclipse vote as North America's top female sprinter. Was scheduled to run this weekend but came down with an infection, so her next start is unknown until she recovers

3. Segesta. Won the Matriarch (G1) last fall for her first top-level score, and before that she was runner-up in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland

4. Lush Lips. Won her last two starts in 2025, the Queen Elizabeth (G1) and Miss Revere (G2), and was never worse than second in seven starts.

5. Dynamic Pricing. She finished off the board in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland, but her overall résumé still justifies a top-five ranking. She ran third in the Diana (G1), well behind the division’s top two, and she broke through with her first Grade 1 victory in the Just a Game before backing it up with a win in the Perfect Sting at Saratoga.

Next five: Laurelin, Fionn, Ag Bullet, Destino d'Oro, Queen Maxima.

Male sprinters

1. Book’em Danno. Winner of four his five starts in 2025, he starts the season on top here. Should make his seasonal debut at Keeneland in April or Churchill Downs in May if all goes well.

2. Bentornato. The Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner scored that win in only his second start of the season. Although it wasn’t enough to earn my Eclipse vote last season, a more active campaign in 2026 could change that. 

3. Imagination. He backed up his previous sprint win with a strong runner-up effort in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2) winner made only three starts in 2025, but each was competitive, earning him a spot among the division’s top five. He returns this weekend in Saudi Arabia.

4. Dr. Venkman. The hard-knocking gelding showed up once again, missing the runner-up spot in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint by a nose when finishing third. Earlier in 2025 he captured the Pat O’Brien (G2) and consistently hit the board in three additional graded stakes, rounding out another dependable and productive campaign. Expected to be back in 2026.

5. Bishops Bay. Winner of the Cigar Mile (G2) last out, this guy is more of miler and stuck between divisions. Still, he has a better chance in 2026 to be a player in this division rather than the older dirt male division. Entered in the Saudi Cup this weekend, where the waters will be much deeper.

Next five: Lovesick Blues, Nakatomi, Crazy Mason, Roll on Big Joe, Midland Money.