Division rankings: Is there a standout Derby contender?

This weekend, all attention will be focused on the 3-year-old males running in major races both domestically and internationally, carrying with them huge implications for the upcoming Kentucky Derby which is now just five weeks away.

Although the Grade 1 Arkansas and Florida derbies undoubtedly will attract the most attention, the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai features a contender that many believe could ultimately claim victory on the first Saturday in May, donning the coveted roses.

Regarding the rankings for 3-year-olds below, five out of the top ten horses will be competing this weekend. It's important to note that these rankings do not represent a Kentucky Derby contender list, but rather a ranking with year-end awards in mind.

Before I give my thoughts on these weekend races, let's take a look at this week's updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Señor Buscador. Scored a wildly popular win in the Saudi Cup (G1), narrowly edging the Japanese star Ushba Tesoro. Before the Saudi Cup, he was a narrow runner-up to National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1). Has to be ranked atop of the heap in this division, for now at least. Will run next in the Dubai World Cup (G1) this weekend and be an underlay.

2. National Treasure. His fourth-place effort in the Saudi Cup was a  good effort, losing by a little under two lengths. The Pegasus World Cup winner stays here at No. 2 as he reaffirmed what he has shown us in his last three starts, that he has matured into a serious horse. Has returned to the U.S. and hopefully will return to the racetrack.

3. Saudi Crown. Nearly pulled off a Saudi Cup win, tiring late to finish third, beaten 3/4 of a length. Will run this weekend in the Godolphin Mile (G2) this weekend and is a serious player in any race up to nine furlongs.

4. White Abarrio. No excuses when off the board in the Saudi Cup, and one has to wonder whether running overseas with his trainer under a microscope had anything to do with it. The Breeders' Cup Classic winner from last season will run the rest of the year in the U.S., where he will try to get back to the dramatic form reversal we witnessed over his three starts before the Saudi Cup. Will be interesting to see whether he returns to the races.

5. Newgate. Game winner of a thrilling edition of the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), he is now headed for Dubai and the World Cup this weekend. The Big 'Cap was his second graded-stakes win.

Next 5: Arabian Knight, Angel of Empire, Disarm, First Mission, Red Route One

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Gutsy winner of the Breeders' Cup Distaff, she returns as defending champion of this division after having won the Eclipse. Finished 8-for-9 in 2023, a tally that includes three Grade 1 wins. Back working, she likely will return on May 3 in the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs.

2. Sweet Azteca. Won her first graded stakes last out in the Beholder Mile (G1). She is 3-for-4 in her short career.

3. Pretty Mischievous. The 3-year-old female Eclipse winner from 2023, this gal will return to the races this season.

4. Randomized. Runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Distaff as a 3-year-old, she came on late at the end of last season. Scored in the Beldame (G2) over older for her second graded-stakes win before the Distaff, and last summer she won the Alabama (G1). Could be a serious player in this division.

5. Adare Manor. Runner-up to Sweet Azteca in the Beholder Mile, she never saw the lead but did close near the end and ran well given the circumstances. Still a major player out west.

Next 5: Desert Dawn, Bellamore, Comparative, Xigera, Wet Paint

3-year-old males

1. Nysos. Unbeaten in three starts, this son of Nyquist has the look of a superstar. Still a long way to go, but he certainly is the leader of this division at the moment. On the shelf for at least a month because of physical issues and could drop from this spot in the next couple of weeks.
2. Catching Freedom. Closed well to take down the Louisiana Derby (G2) last out and stamp himself as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. Love that he started three times already this season, winning two of them as well. Good foundation at age 2 and looks like he can be a major player in this division from here on out.

3. Muth. Made his 3-year-old debut in January and impressed to win going away in the San Vicente (G2). Last season at age 2 he was second best in the Breeders' Cup and won the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita. He finally returns to this track this weekend in the Arkansas Derby (G1).
4. Hades. Surprised in the Holy Bull (G3), running his record to 3-for-3. Still, the race came back with slow figures, and runner-up Domestic Product came back to win the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) last out in a historically slow race speed-figure-wise. Will run in the Florida Derby (G1) this weekend and probably won't be respected at the windows.

5. Timberlake. A Grade 1 winner at age 2, he made his first appearance at age 3 a winning one in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn last month. The field he defeated was suspect as none of the entrants had a stakes win on their resume, so we need to pump the brakes and keep him in this spot. Will run in the Arkansas Derby (G1) this weekend where he faces Muth, a horse that finished ahead of him by two lengths last fall in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Next 10: Sierra Leone, Dornoch, Domestic Product, Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Track Phantom, Imagination, Deterministic, Honor Marie, Endlessly

3-year-old females

1. Kinza. Has been dominant in all three of her career starts, running faster than any other in this division. Already has two graded-stakes wins this season.

2. Tarifa. With two graded stakes win this season, Tarifa scored last weekend in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Now 4-for-5 on her career, she looks like one of the fillies to beat in the Kentucky Oaks.

3. Jody's Pride. Runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, her only loss in three starts. Ran well in her 3-year-old debut, running away with the Busher at Aqueduct. Will return at Keeneland in the Ashland (G1) next month.

4. Just F Y I. Looked very good winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and then won the Eclipse as the top 2-year-old female. Scratched out of the Davona Dale (G2) and will need to run soon before she drops further.

5. Tamara. Disappointed as the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies but was found afterward to have a cracked splint bone. This daughter of Beholder won the Del Mar Debutante (G1) rather easily in her start before the Breeders' Cup. She is back jogging, but like Just F Y I, she is a wildcard at age 3 and will drop with lack of action.

Next 5: Our Pretty Woman, Candied, Intricate, Fiona's Magic, Lemon Muffin

Turf males

1. I'm Very Busy. Validated his No. 2 ranking in recent weeks with another strong performance, this time a win last weekend in the Muniz (G2) at Fair Grounds. Now he moves to No. 1. In his other start this season he was runner-up in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), which was his first start since a runner-up effort in the Hill Prince (G2) last November at age 3. Trained by Chad Brown, he is the horse to beat now in a wide-open division.

2. Casa Creed. Beaten by only a half-length in the Breeders' Cup Mile, this guy was never off the board in 2023, going 2-for-5 with one Grade 1 win. Missed the Saudi Arabia trip because of a fever. Returns to this races this weekend in Dubai in the Al Quoz Sprint (G1).

3. Du Jour. Overpowered the Kilroe Mile (G1) field last out for his first Grade 1 win. Previous to that he was off the board in the Breeder's Cup Mile and won one graded stakes in 2023.

4. Program Trading. Won the Hollywood Derby (G1) in his last start in December. Now age 4, he should be even better.

5. Gold Phoenix. Had an up-and-down 2023, which saw him win three graded stakes, including the Kilroe Mile (G1). But he also was off the board in four graded stakes. One of those, the Breeders' Cup Turf, was a nice performance as he finished fourth, beaten by only a little over two lengths.

Next 5: Missed the Cut, Emannuel, Easter, Exaulted, Never Explain

Turf females

1. In Italian. Robbed of the Eclipse Award last season, she starts on top this season. She had two Grade 1 wins last season and narrowly missed in two others.

2. Didia. The winner of the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January, she won two graded stakes last season and was 10th in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

3. Gina Romantica. She made only four starts in 2023 but scored a big win in the First Lady (G1) and then finished a very good fourth last out in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

4. Moira. She won only once in 2023, but she was very good in all of her starts. Last out she finished third in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She was in the money in stakes in all six of her starts in 2023.

5. Bellabel. Won the Megahertz (G3) last out in her first start since late 2022. She was in the money with one win in three graded stakes in 2022, so perhaps she can be a player in this division.

Next 5: War Like Goddess, Ruby Nell, Alpha Bella, Surge Capacity, R Calli Kim

Male sprinters

1. Speed Boat Beach. He inherits the top spot here with Elite Power and Gunite now retired. After finishing fourth in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last November, he scored a facile win in the Malibu (G1) at Santa Anita in late December. Hasn't been seen in action since.

2. Skelly. Ran well in Saudi Arabia, finishing runner-up in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3). Before that he won the King Cotton Stakes at Oaklawn in his first start of 2024. Last season he was 6-for-7, which included the Count Fleet (G3) as his only graded-stakes win. Major contender in this division now moving forward.

3. The Chosen Vron. Won again last out, this time in the San Carlos (G3) for this third straight win since his fifth in last November's Breeders' Cup Sprint. He has won 16 of his 21 career starts and is tops out west in this division. The only question for this guy in 2024 will be whether he can hang with the best in this division.

4. Hoist the Gold. His connections tried to stretch him out last time in the Pegasus World Cup, but that experiment failed as he faded to finish fourth. Won the Cigar Mile (G2) last fall. His connections still believed he can route, so he ran in the Saudi Cup and finished 14th. Hopefully they get him back sprinting where he belongs.

5. Sibelius. Won the Feb. 10 Pelican Stakes at Tampa, defeating Nakatomi. He previously scored in the Mr. Prospector (G3) at Gulfstream in December. Now he's in Dubai looking for a repeat win in the Golden Shaheen (G1) this weekend.

Next 5:  Nakatomi, Super Chow, Tejano Twist, Raise Cain, Nobals

Forever Young could outshine underwhelming Kentucky Derby contenders

Up to this point in the season, the 3-year-old males aiming for the Kentucky Derby have been underwhelming. Many have run in races typically seen as stepping stones to the Derby, yet the outcomes have been characterized by historically slow speed figures and fields that lacked in depth. In essence, there hasn't been a standout horse, and some expected contenders have posted slower figures at age three than at age 2.

It's a perplexing situation. It’s further complicated with the Bob Baffert-trained horses being unable to compete in Louisville because of his ongoing suspension by Churchill Downs. Notably, two of the top five ranked 3-year-olds above are trained by Baffert, raising the possibility that the winners of the Santa Anita Derby and Arkansas Derby might not make it to the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby.

Considering all these factors, it seems to me that this presents a wide-open opportunity for something out of the ordinary to occur.

Forever Young is a horse whom I have been high on for quite some time, and he runs this weekend in the UAE Derby. This son of Real Steel isn’t ranked above, and that's because he is from Japan and has not run in the U.S. But Forever Young deserves your attention. Unbeaten in four starts, he is, by all accounts, the best hope for a Kentucky Derby win the Japanese have ever had. He was last seen running down Book'em Danno in the Saudi Derby (G3), and some might have been underwhelmed by that performance. I view it in a different light and emerged even more impressed.

Running on the wrong lead in the stretch, Forever Young showed his inexperience, yet he still was able to run down Book'em Danno. For those wondering, Book’em Danno is no slouch. He is the best U.S.-based 3-year-old miler and will be favored to win the Pat Day Mile (G2) on the Kentucky Derby undercard. In fact, the translated speed figure Forever Young ran in that Saudi race was the highest by any Kentucky Derby contender by a wide margin.

But pessimism abounds largely because of the fact that he won't compete in the U.S. before the Kentucky Derby. No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby without racing in the U.S. prior to the event. But this is bound to change eventually. Just a few years ago, Justify made history by becoming the first horse in over 130 years to win the Kentucky Derby without racing at age 2. Make no mistake, the Japanese contingent is on the rise, and it's only a matter of time before they claim victory.

Forever Young will be the short-priced favorite this weekend, and anything less than an impressive win will be a disappointment. If he does win impressively, it’s not stretch to state that he very well could end up as the Kentucky Derby favorite, depending on the outcomes of the races stateside over the next two weekends.

Of course, most reading this have their full attention on either the Florida Derby or Arkansas Derby run on Saturday. Both races have intriguing storylines.

In Arkansas Bob Baffert will try the Arkansas Derby party with Muth, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up from last fall. It appears the horse with the best chance to defeat Muth would be Timberlake, the horse Muth finished ahead of in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Both colts have started once this year, and both won impressively. Mystik Dan will take action based off his win in the sloppy-track Southwest Stakes. But unless we have a monsoon on Saturday at Oaklawn Park, this guy is a clear underlay and not a contender in this spot because he had shown little in his prior races on fast tracks.

A victory by Muth in Arkansas would add another layer of complexity to the Kentucky Derby landscape. I expect Timberlake to run well, but it's worrisome that he has plateaued speed-figure-wise in his last three starts.

What about the Florida Derby? Fierceness somehow was made the 8-5 morning line favorite. Yes, Fierceness is the 2-year-old champ from last year, all based off of one stakes win. That one win was good in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, don’t get me wrong, but was it an aberration? I tend to think it was. Of course, I will have egg on my face late Saturday if Fierceness turns things around and wins, but at the price he will have, he is a clear underlay. The biggest I have seen in this race since Mohaymen in 2016.

I already can hear the skeptics chiming in. They'll likely argue that Fierceness wasn't fully prepared by his connections and so on. In horse racing, it's often claimed that highly regarded horses, as per their connections, train exceptionally well before a race. Yet, if they lose, it's suggested that their preparation wasn't really 100% by those same connections. This narrative conveniently provides an excuse for the defeat. Don't buy into excuses like this.

Fierceness has run once this season, and in that race he had no excuses when he was a non-threatening third to Hades in the Holy Bull. Hades doesn’t get respect because he is a gelding bred in Florida, but he should get respected. Unbeaten in three starts, he wired that Holy Bull field, but to be fair, he was able to get away with very slow early fractions and had more than enough in the tank late to hold on.

Really, you can look at any one of at least a half-dozen horses entered in the 11-horse Florida Derby and not be surprised by a win. Frankie’s Empire ran third in the recent Fountain of Youth (G2) and has run just as fast or faster than any other entered. He could surprise here.

We would expect to have our 3-year-old male picture become clearer after this weekend, but I get the sense it will become even more blurred.