Division rankings: Sprint divisions start to take shape

As the Kentucky Derby approaches in just two weeks, it's a good moment to pause and step back from the whirlwind of hype and incessant debate surrounding an event that is already excessively covered.

What better divisions to highlight this week than my favorites, the sprint divisions?

I have ranked Skelly no. 1 in the male sprint division for several weeks, and he cemented that status Saturday at Oaklawn with a big win.

The female sprint rankings debut this week, and Alva Star will start the season off in the top spot.

Before I get into some brief thoughts on both divisions, let's take a look at this week's updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Señor Buscador. Despite finishing third in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup in his most recent outing, Señor Buscador retains his no. 1 spot. His record this year thus far as been good, winning the Saudi Cup (G1) before his Dubai appearance. He kicked off the season with a close second-place finish to National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in January. The focus now will be on preparing for the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar in late August, potentially making a start in the San Diego Handicap (G2) in late July as a prep.

2. National Treasure. He finished fourth in the Saudi Cup, but he put in a commendable performance and fell short by just under two lengths. Holding steady at the no. 2 spot, the winner of the Pegasus World Cup has once again demonstrated his maturity in his recent races. Back in the U.S, look for him to return in the summer months.

3. White Abarrio. No excuses when off the board in the Saudi Cup, and one has to wonder whether running overseas with his trainer under a microscope had anything to do with it. The Breeders' Cup Classic winner from last season will run the rest of the year in the U.S., where he will try to get back to the dramatic form reversal we witnessed over his three starts before the Saudi Cup. His connections have outlined plans for just three more races this season. The next target is the Met Mile (G1), followed by appearances in the Whitney (G1) and ultimately concluding the season with the Breeders' Cup Classic.

4. Saudi Crown. Struggling to find his stride in the Godolphin Mile (G2), he finished a disappointing 12th. The inability to secure an early lead seemed to be his downfall. Before the setback in Dubai, he came close to victory in the Saudi Cup, fading in the late stages to secure a respectable third place, falling short by 3/4 of a length. Looking ahead, the Met Mile in June is being considered as his next race.

5. Newgate. Game winner of a thrilling edition of the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), he delivered a lackluster performance in the Dubai World Cup, finishing in ninth place. The focus will be on the ultimate goal of running in the Breeders' Cup Classic at him home base, Del Mar, this fall.

Next 5: First Mission, Red Route One, Angel of Empire, Disarm, Arabian Knight

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Gutsy winner of the Breeders' Cup Distaff, she returns as defending champion of this division after having won the Eclipse. With an impressive record of eight wins from nine starts in 2023, including triumphs in three Grade 1 events, she has resumed training. She is expected to return May 3 in the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs.

2. Sweet Azteca. Won her first graded stakes last out in the Beholder Mile (G1). She is 3-for-4 in her short career. She too could be headed to Churchill Downs to start in the Derby City Distaff (G1).

3. Adare Manor. Made a rare appearance outside of her home state of California and won the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn impressively by more than five lengths. She appears to have moved forward off of a runner-up effort to Sweet Azteca in the Beholder Mile in her prior race. She is indeed a major player in this division and is actually running in races while other expected contenders continue to sit on the bench.

4. Pretty Mischievous. The 3-year-old female Eclipse winner from 2023, this gal will return to the races this season. Will also make her return in the La Troienne on May 3.

5. Randomized. Runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Distaff as a 3-year-old, she came on late at the end of last season. Scored in the Beldame (G2) over older for her second graded-stakes win before the Distaff, and last summer she won the Alabama (G1). Could be a serious player in this division.

Next 5: Desert Dawn, Bellamore, Comparative, Xigera, Flying Connection

3-year-old males

1. Sierra Leone. Facile winner of the recent Blue Grass (G1), this guy as yet to deliver a subpar performance throughout his career and arguably could be undefeated. With three wins from four starts, he resides here on top because of his consistent performances regardless of the conditions. Unlike the no. 2 contender, Fierceness, he delivers in every race he runs. I anticipate that he will emerge as the favorite for the Kentucky Derby when the gates open, and there's every indication that he'll be in the mix of things when they turn for home.

2. Fierceness. With a dominant win in the Florida Derby (G1), this guy won by a record margin. Not only was the performance impressive in terms of speed, it also marked the fastest speed figure any 3-year-old male has achieved around two turns this season. Despite his success in his two stakes wins, he hasn't faced much adversity and has yet to string together consecutive wins. It seems he thrives when conditions are in his favor. Following his recent blowout win and impressive speed figure, he's expected by some to be heavily favored heading into the Louisville. But it's worth noting the cautionary tale of Bellamy Road, who similarly faltered when faced with adversity but delivered a remarkable blowout victory with a significant speed figure just before the Kentucky Derby in 2005, ultimately making him the favorite.

3. Muth. Dominated the Arkansas Derby (G1) last out and is now 2-for-2 on the season as he impressed to win going away in the San Vicente (G2) in January. Last season at age 2 he was second best in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and won the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita. As of this writing there is a slight chance he could crash the Kentucky Derby party. If not, look for him to run in the Preakness two weeks after.
4. Catching Freedom. Closed well to take the Louisiana Derby (G2) last out and stamp himself as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. Love that he started three times already this season, winning two of them. Good foundation at age 2, and he looks like he can be a major player in this division from here on out.

5. Just a Touch. Very good runner-up to Sierra Leone last out in the Blue Grass (G1), and before that he was runner-up in the Gotham (G3) in just his second career start. Will go next in the Kentucky Derby, where I give this son of Justify a big shot to turn the tables on his rival and come away with the win. Very similar pattern that last year's winner, Mage, had heading into Louisville.
Next 10: Nysos, Endlessly, Domestic Product, Just Steel, Resilience, Stronghold, Imagination, Track Phantom, Honor Marie, Dornoch

3-year-old females

1. Leslie's Rose. Defeated all comers in the deepest field this division has seen thus far in the Ashland (G1) last out. So yes, she deserves the top spot for now. Now 3-for-4 on her career, her only loss was a third-place finish in the Davona Dale (G2) earlier this season.

2. Just F Y I. I can't fault her for her runner-up finish in the Ashland as she ran well in her first start since her Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) win. Should move forward off that effort and be among the favorites in the Kentucky Oaks (G1).
3. Tarifa. With two graded-stakes wins this season, Tarifa scored last out in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Now 4-for-5 on her career, she looks like one of the fillies to beat in the Kentucky Oaks.

4. Nothing Like You. Dominated the Santa Anita Oaks (G2), winning by more than seven lengths and leaving Kinza in her wake. Was that an aberration? Possibly. Still, a nice effort.

5. Kinza. No excuses when runner-up to Nothing Like you last out in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2. In her prior three starts she was dominant, posting two graded-stakes wins this season.

Next 5: Thorpedo Anna, Power Squeeze, Tamara, Jody's Pride, Candied

Turf males

1. Master of The Seas. We finally have a solid leader of this division after he won the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) last out in dominating fashion. He now has three Grade 1 scores from his last four starts in North America. But the problem is he won't run again till August, so he will fall from this spot. For now, he is up top, but I'm disappointed the connections will bench him for four months and wait till the Aug. 10 Fourstardave (G1) for his next start.

2. I'm Very Busy. Validated his no. 2 ranking in recent weeks with another strong performance, this time a win last out in the Muniz (G2) at Fair Grounds. In his other start this season he was runner-up in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1), which was his first start since a runner-up effort in the Hill Prince (G2) last November at age 3. Trained by Chad Brown, he is the horse to beat now in a wide-open division. Will go next in the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill on the Kentucky Derby undercard.

3. Casa Creed. Beaten by only a half-length in the Breeders' Cup Mile, this guy never was off the board in 2023, going 2-for-5 with one Grade 1 win. Missed the Saudi Arabia trip because of a fever and returned in the Al Quoz Sprint (G1) in Dubai and finished sixth.

4. Du Jour. Overpowered the Kilroe Mile (G1) field last out for his first Grade 1 win. Previous to that he was off the board in the Breeder's Cup Mile and won one graded stakes in 2023.

5. Program Trading. Won the Hollywood Derby (G1) in his last start in December. Now age 4, he should be even better.

Next 5: Missed the Cut, Naval Power, Emannuel, Easter, Exaulted

Turf females

1. English Rose. It's early in this division with no clear standout, and this gal resides on top for now after her runner-up in the Jenny Wiley (G1), where she finished ahead of several ranked below. She has run two other times this season, both overseas, wining a Group 2 stakes and finishing runner-up in another.

2. Didia. The winner of the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January, she won two graded stakes last season and was 10th in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She finished third in the Jenny Wiley.

3. Gina Romantica. Sort of a disappointment in the Jenny Wiley, she finished seventh, beaten over seven lengths in her first start of 2024. Last season she made only four starts but scored a big win in the First Lady (G1) and then finished a very good fourth in the Breeders' Cup Mile. 

4. Beaute Cachee. In the best form of her career now at age 5, this Chad Brown-trained daughter of Literato scored her first Grade 1 win in the Jenny Wiley at odds of 25-1. The Jenny Wiley was her first start of 2024. Her last start of 2023 was a third-place finish in the Matriarch (G1) at 18-1 odds.

5. Ruby Nell. Third in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G2) back in January, she won last out in the Buena Vista (G2) at Santa Anita.

Next 5: Bellabel, War Like Goddess, McKulick, Alpha Bella, Surge Capacity

Male sprinters

1. Skelly. Ran a superb race last out in the Count Fleet Sprint (G3) setting an extremely fast pace and with more than enough in the tank to win by three. Before that effort he ran well in Saudi Arabia, finishing runner-up in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3). He won the King Cotton Stakes at Oaklawn in his first start of 2024. He's won eight of his last nine starts, and his connections are keeping him at Oaklawn for a listed stakes, the Lake Hamilton on May 4.

2. The Chosen Vron. Won again last out, this time in the San Carlos (G3) for this third straight win since his fifth in last November's Breeders' Cup Sprint. He has won 16 of his 21 career starts and is tops out west in this division. The only question for this guy in 2024 will be whether he can hang with the best in this division.

3. Post Time. He has won eight of his nine career starts and already is 3-for-3 this season with two graded-stakes wins. Last out he scored in the Carter (G2) at Aqueduct.

4. Nakatomi. Third last out in Dubai in the Golden Shaheen (G1), he was third in last fall's Breeders' Cup Sprint. Major player in this division.

5. Sibelius. Didn't run well in his defense of his Golden Shaheen (G1) win last out as he faded to finish 11th. Previous to that effort he won the Feb. 10 Pelican Stakes at Tampa, defeating Nakatomi. 

Next 5:  Bo Cruz, Hoist the Gold, Tejano Twist, Super Chow, Big City Lights

Female sprinters

1. Alva Starr. The winner of the Madison (G1) last out in her first start of 2024, she resides here at the top to start the season in this division. The Madison was her second graded-stakes win, and she is 5-for-8 overall on her career.

2. Three Witches. Third in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall, she made her seasonal debut a winning one at Santa Anita with a win in the Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita.

3. Vahva. Finished runner-up to Alva Starr in the Madison in her first start of 2024. Won the Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland last fall.

4. Red Carpet Ready. The winner of the Hurricane Bertie (G3) in March at Gulfstream, she was third to Alva Starr in the Madison last time out.

5. Society. This gal was fourth in last fall's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and is back on the work tab. She won two stakes last year and should be a major player in this division.

Next 5: Olivia Darling, Shidabhuti, Apple Picker, Honor D Lady, Sterling Silver

Female sprint division has lots of new names

When the season started, Speed Boat Beach held the No. 1 spot in the male sprint division for obvious reasons. He had just won the Malibu (G1) at the end of December, and before that he finished a good fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. With several stars from this division now retired, including the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Elite Power, it was Speed Boat Beach who looked like the horse to beat moving forward.

But Speed Boat Beach hasn’t run since that Malibu or posted a work since February, so he has dropped out of the rankings altogether.

Skelly, on the other hand, has run quite a bit in 2024. With two wins from three starts, Skelly also has traveled all the way to Saudi Arabia and back. He started his season with a nice win at Oaklawn in the King Cotton Stakes, travelled to Saudi Arabia to run in the Riyadh Sprint (G3), and then back to Oaklawn last week for his most impressive win to date in the Count Fleet Sprint (G3).

He did all of this in a span of 69 days. Skelly showed no adverse effects from the travel, in fact he seems to have gotten better. His career record now stands out at 9-for-14, and Skelly has won eight of his last nine starts. He has been off the board only once in those 14 career starts.

Skelly will stay at Oaklawn for now and run in a new race, the $200,000 Lake Hamilton on May 4. It isn’t a graded race, but I can see why the connections want to stay at their home base of Oaklawn. The Lake Hamilton purse is big for a sprint race this early in the season. Skelly has run nine times at Oaklawn, winning seven.

On the female side, things have been slow to develop. With few female graded sprint races early in the season, it’s difficult to put together a top 10. But now that we have reached April and the Keeneland meet, we have enough data.

The Madison last week was the biggest race this division has to offer in the first four months of the season, and last week it was favorted Alva Starr who held on for the win to defeat Vahva.

This was Alva Starr's first start of 2024. She and Vahva have traded wins in their last two races, Vahva defeated Alva Starr in the Raven Run (G2) last fall at Keeneland, and that came after Alva Starr won her first graded stakes at Saratoga in September in the Prioress (G2).

Three Witches is based in the west and finished a good third in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She made her 2024 debut in the Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita and posted a facile win by more than two lengths in February. She hasn’t run since but will run on Kentucky Derby weekend in the Derby City Distaff.

The Derby City Distaff on May 4 is shaping up to be quite the race. We could see the top four ranked in this division face off along with Sweet Azteca, who would cut back in distance for the seven-furlong Derby City.

So, lots of new names to get used to in both divisions, but as always, I expect these divisions to be among the best and most entertaining of them all.