Division rankings: Elite Power is in a familiar Eclipse situation

The two reigning Eclipse Award winners from the previous season, Elite Power and Goodnight Olive, have continued training into 2023 in hopes of replicating their past successes. Elite Power, however, faces a formidable challenge. In the history of the Eclipse Awards, only two horses, Housebuster (1990-91) and Roy H (2017-2018), have clinched back-to-back titles in the sprint division.

Elite Power had been dominating his division for nearly eight months until late August, when he suffered a surprising defeat at the hands of the current second-ranked horse, Gunite. This marked the end of an impressive eight-race winning streak for Elite Power.

Although one might assume that Elite Power's prior achievements would provide a cushion against the occasional loss, it's important to remember that in horse racing nowadays, the most recent performance often holds the greatest sway with some voters, regardless of the number of previous victories amassed.

Before I take a look at Elite Power’s quandary, let's take a look at this week's updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Cody's Wish. We are three-quarters of a way through the season, and this division is in disarray. This guy stays up top here despite his loss in the Grade 1 Whitney because who else has a resume good enough to be here? As expected, his distance limitations were exposed and he will be back sprinting next out in the Vosburgh (G2) later this month. If he passes that test, he will attempt to win the Breeders' Cup Mile for the second year in a row. If he does that, he will win the Eclipse in this division.

2. White Abarrio. It says a lot about this division when I am ranking a horse this high with one stakes win in his last nine starts dating back 16 months. He won the Whitney impressively under his new trainer, Rick Dutrow Jr., who is back after a 10-year suspension when charged with numerous medication and administrative violations. White Abarrio has run career tops speed-figure-wise in his two starts since being transferred to Dutrow. White Abarrio will train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic. Can he win an Eclipse with only two stakes wins? No. He won't get my vote with that resume. Given all of that, he will be an underlay and long shot at Santa Anita, in my opinion.

3. Zandon. He hasn't won this year in three starts, but he shows up every time and runs his race. He has finished runner-up three times in graded stakes, the last two being the Met Mile (G1) and the Whitney. With the division in the state it is this season, he deserves this spot for now.

4. Proxy. This guy has two graded-stakes wins from six starts this year, and ran well almost overcoming a ridiculously slow pace in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last out and losing by a nose. So by default, he sits here at No. 4. Will likely run next in the Breeders' Cup Classic and be a long shot.

5. Bright Future. The winner of the JCGC, he was allowed to set tepid fractions that no doubt helped him in his first stakes win.

Next 5: Rattle N Roll, Smile Happy, Slow Down Andy, Defunded, Skippylongstocking

Older dirt females

1. Clairiere. Was beaten with no excuses two back by Nest and then last out she ran a clunker in the slop in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga. She maintains this top spot because she has run in and won several big events this season. What happens in the prior six months matters to me in this sport, and Clairiere has shown up for all of the previous big events this division had to offer this year, winning two Grade 1 events, the most of any in this division. Still controls her own Eclipse fate.

2. Idiomatic. The Personal Ensign winner is on a roll now, winning her last three starts, all stakes. Overall she is 6-for-7 on the season and has put herself in serious contention for the Eclipse.

3. Adare Manor. The best of the west added another big win in the Clement Hirsch (G1). Now 4-for-5 on the season, she probably will have one more start before the Breeders' Cup Distaff at her home base of Santa Anita. No matter what happens with the top two, if this gal wins the Breeders' Cup Distaff, the Eclipse will be hers.

4. Secret Oath. The winner of the Azeri (G2) earlier this season, she has been runner-up in three Grade 1 events in 2023, including the Personal Ensign last out.

5. Nest. Based on resume alone for this season, Nest really doesn't belong this high in the rankings, but I will give her the benefit of doubt. Ran great in her return to the races two back in the Shuvee (G2), where she got the jump on her rival Clairiere and recorded a facile two-length win. But last out in the Personal Ensign she finished third. Sitting on the bench for the first half of the season will cost Nest the Eclipse in 2023.

Next 5: Played Hard, Search Results, A Mo Reay, Fun to Dream, Pauline's Pearl

3-year-old males

1. Arcangelo. Super impressive in the Travers (G1), defeating a quality field. Validating his Belmont win was critical, and he did that and more. Now he will train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic. He will face an even stiffer test at Santa Anita, but a win in the Classic will secure not only the Eclipse in this division, but horse of the year.

2. Arabian Knight. In February this guy was among the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. After his Southwest Stakes (G3) win, he was put on the shelf and didn't return until the Haskell (G1) in July, where he finished third. He obviously needed the race. Last out he was all heart in winning the Pacific Classic (G1) over older and fellow 3-year-olds. Could train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic run over his home track of Santa Anita. He would be the horse to beat and should get even better in his third start off that layoff.

3. Geaux Rocket Ride. Was narrowly defeated in the Pacific Classic, but he lost nothing in defeat. the Haskell winner will be one of the horses to beat in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He could run one more time prior in the Awesome Again (G1) at Santa Anita later this month.

4. Forte. Disappointed in the Travers (G1), finishing fourth, beaten eight lengths. No way to spin the loss, no excuses. Considering that was his first subpar race we have seen in over a year, I will give him a mulligan. Will train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic and will be a horse you can't discount.

5. Mage. Finished last in the Travers, but he gets a mulligan off of that effort considering what he has done prior. Likely will train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic, where a win there would garner him the Eclipse in this division.

Next 5: Angel of Empire, Disarm, National Treasure, Saudi Crown, Practical Move

3-year-old females

1. Pretty Mischievous. I know what the PPs say, but this gal finished runner-up in the Test (G1) last time out. She has the lead in this division, but the door is still open. Before the Test she won the Acorn (G1) and the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She has won the two biggest events that her division has to offer so far this season. Will run next in the Cotillion (G1) at Parx next weekend.

2. Wet Paint. The runner-up in the Alabama (G1) won by the loose-on-the-lead Randomized. Previously she got the job done in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), defeating four others. Still believe she is among the best in this division. Stuck behind loose-on-the lead types two of the last three races.

4. Randomized. Won her first graded race when wiring the Alabama. In her previous attempt in a graded stakes she was sixth in the Acorn on Belmont Stakes day. She'll need to win it again before she moves up.

4. Window Shopping. Defeated The Alys Look to win the Summertime Oaks (G2) last out, and before that she was third in Faiza's Santa Anita Oaks (G1). Connections tried her on the grass last time out in the Del Mar Oaks (G1), where she finished sixth.

5. Faiza. Disappointed as the favorite last out in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2), where she finished third. The loss snapped a five-race win streak to start her career, and four of those were graded events. She will drop from this spot soon with lack of action.

Next 5: Defining Purpose, Gambling Girl, Hoosier Philly, Dorth Vader, Sacred Wish

Turf males

1. Up to the Mark. Was superb last out winning the Manhattan (G1) at Belmont Park, giving him two Grade 1 wins on this season, a rarity for this division the last few years. But that was in June. The jury is out, but he is back working again, so perhaps we'll see him again soon. If we are being honest, the fields he has beaten were suspect, and earlier this season he was soundly defeated when third in the Makers Mark Mile (G1).

2. Casa Creed. Closed stoutly last out in the Fourstardave (G1) to defeat Annapolis. A really impressive effort. A 7-year-old, he is in the best form of his career winning his last two starts. Could be a contender later this year in the Breeders' Cup Mile if he maintains this form. Will train up to that race.

3. Bolshoi Ballet. Ran them off their feet in the Sword Dancer (G1) last time out, and that alone bumps him this high, considering the state of this division. Before the Sword Dancer he was winless in four starts overseas.

4. Gold Phoenix. Remember this guy? He was ranked higher than this in March but was then off the board in his next two starts. Well, he is back in top form winning his last two graded stakes, the Eddie Read (G2) and Del Mar Handicap (G2) last out. Will be one of our best hopes in the Breeders' Cup Turf this fall.

5. Exaulted. Was a tough-luck runner-up last out in the Del Mar Mile (G2), but before that he was 4-for-4 since being moved to the grass from the dirt. Won the Shoemaker Mile (G1) earlier this season and is a Breeders' Cup Mile contender.

Next 5: Set Piece, Chez Pierre, Annapolis, Du Jour, Santin

Turf females

1. In Italian. Was stunned last time out, tasting defeat for the first time in over a year to another in this division. Her narrow runner-up finish in the Diana (G1) won't knock her off the top spot here, and that likely will be the last time she runs nine furlongs. Look for her to run shorter  as she charts a course for a return engagement in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

2. Whitebeam. Upset In Italian in the Diana for her first Grade 1 win and second graded-stakes win overall. Before the Diana she won the Gallorette (G3) on Preakness day at Pimlico. Was flattered by Fev Rover's Beverly D. win as that one finished third in the Diana. Will make her next start at Keeneland in the First Lady (G1).

3. War Like Goddess. Suffered another loss, the first time she has lost back-to-back races in her 16-race career. It wasn't a bad effort, finishing runner-up in the Glens Falls (G2) and losing by a neck. But if we are being fair, the War Like Goddess of old would beat that bunch handily. I believe she has lost a step or two now, but the connections likely will give her another shot to turn it around.

4. Fev Rover. Impressed in the Beverly D. (G1) for her second win this season. Previous to her win last weekend, she was third to Whitebeam and In Italian in the Diana. Won the Nassau Stakes (G2) two starts back.

5. Caravel. Defeated last out when facing males in the Troy Stakes (G3) at Saratoga, which was run on a soft turf because of the rain. Both of her prior graded-stakes wins this season have come over males, so this last loss was a disappointment.

Next 5: Moira, Marketsegmentation, McKulick, Didia, Macadamia

Male sprinters

1. Elite Power. Was upset by Gunite in the Forego (G1) after the latter again was allowed to get away with slow fractions. Still the best in this division by a wide margin, he will head to the Breeders' Cup Sprint with an eye on a repeat win and another Eclipse. In the same boat as Jackie's Warrior last year, dominated this division for three-quarters of the season and could lose the Eclipse because of late-season voting bias. Has defeated Gunite in two of their three meetings this season.

2. Gunite. Defeated Elite Power in a major upset winning the Forego (G1). The Forego was his first graded stakes win this season. He could run in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2) prior to the Breeders' Cup.

3. Cody's Wish. Do we keep him ranked down here with the sprinters? Sure we do. He has one Grade 1 sprint race win this year, the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), and after his loss in the Whitney will cut back to shorter distances. The Vosburgh (G2) is likely up next. Though it will never happen, an Elite Power vs. Cody's Wish Breeders' Cup Sprint would steal the show.

4. The Chosen Vron. Won the Bing Crosby (G1) last out for his eighth straight win, and the previous seven wins all were listed stakes. This California-bred gelding loves sprinting and belongs here for now.

5. Anarchist. Won the Pat O'Brien (G2) after previously finishing runner-up to The Chosen Vron in the Bing Crosby. This guy has put together a good record this year, running eight times and never finishing worse than second. Has two graded-stakes wins in 2023.

Next 5: Sibelius, Repo Rocks, Doppelganger, Spirit of Makena, Skelly

Female sprinters

1. Echo Zulu. Folks, this isn't hyperbole. Though her resume is somewhat light, I believe this is the best female sprinter we have seen in over 20 years. She is clearly the fastest speed-figure-wise, and she dominated last year's Eclipse winner, Goodnight Olive, in the Ballerina (G1) last out. Now her connections likely will target the Breeders' Cup. With her stablemate, Gunite pointing for the Sprint, we might not get to see this gal against the males and instead see her in the Filly & Mare Sprint. No sprinter, male or female, has run as fast as this gal in 2023. She's 3-for-3 this season, and she hasn't been tested.

2. Goodnight Olive. Ran her race in the Ballerina, but she faced a monster in Echo Zulu. The Eclipse winner from last season started her season with a win in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland. Will train up to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

3. Wicked Halo. Runner-up again in another huge effort in the Bed o' Roses (G2), this time to Goodnight Olive, and then won a listed stakes at Ellis Park. She is most certainly a serious contender for the Eclipse in this division and appears to be just getting better. Before the Bed o' Roses she was runner-up in the Derby City Distaff (G1) to Matareya. She was cross-entered in the Ballerina and the Misty Bennett Pink Ribbon at Charles Town but didn't start in either.

4. Matareya. Won the Derby City Distaff two starts back, defeating Goodnight Olive. Last time out she finished third in the Ballerina. Is capable of big efforts.

5. Society. Rebounded from a rough start to her season with a 10-length win over Matareya in the Chicago Stakes (G3). Before that she was ninth in the La Troienne (G1) and third in the Madison (G1). Perhaps she is a player in this division? Not sure. Won the listed Pink Ribbon Stakes at Charles Town last time out.

Next 5: Frank's Rockette, Fun to Dream, Caramel Swirl, Maryquitecontrary, Eda

2-year-old males

1. Prince of Monaco. Won the Del Mar Futurity (G3) last week to stay unbeaten in three starts. He likely will be the Breeders' Cup Juvenile favorite on his home track of Santa Anita, but I am of the opinion he will be an underlay and fired his best shot in this last race. He also looked a little off to me on the right side when switching leads in the stretch.

2. Nutella Fella. Won the Hopeful (G1) last out at 54-1 odds. 2-for-2 so far in his career.

3. Timberlake. The beaten favorite in the Hopeful, he finished runner-up to Nutella Fella.

4. Muth. This guy was the favorite for the Hopeful but was scratched and will run next in the American Pharoah (G1) on Oct. 7 at Santa Anita.
5. Noted. The Sapling winner certainly has the connections, Todd Pletcher and Mike Repole. He is 2-for-3 on his career.
Next 5: Mirahmadi, Gold Sweep, Rhyme Schemes, Pirate, The Wine Steward

2-year-old females

1. Brightwork. Defeated the highly regarded Ways and Means last out in the Spinaway (G1) and has four wins already in her career. This unbeaten gal won the Adironack (G3) before the Spinaway.

2. Tamara. This daughter of Beholder won the Del Mar Debutante (G1) rather easily for her second win in as many starts. She no doubt gets a bump in her reputation given her pedigree and likely will be the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

3. Ways and Means. The heavy favorite in the Spinaway (G1) after winning her maiden race impressively, she was defeated by Brightwork.

4. Wonder Ride. Closed well to finish third in the Spinaway, won her only previous race, a maiden event at Saratoga.

5. Here U Come Again. This Brad Cox-trained daughter of Liam's Map was runner-up to Brightwork in the Adirondack (G3) after breaking her maiden at Ellis Park.
Next 5: Dreamfyre, Laurent, Saratoga Secret, Dua, Hot Beach

Elite Power in same boat as Jackie's Warrior a year ago

Around this time last season, I expressed my frustration with the questioning of Jackie's Warrior's leadership in the division. Despite his first loss of the year in the Forego (G1) in late August, he already had secured multiple Grade 1 wins, maintaining a 4-for-4 record before that defeat.

To me, the choice was clear: no other contender had come close to achieving what Jackie's Warrior had in the first three quarters of the season. Even if he were to face another loss in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, his position at the top would remain unchallenged because no other horse could boast the comprehensive resume that Jackie's Warrior possessed.

I was wrong. It turns out that according to the voters, two wins in the final 30 days of the season were sufficient to overshadow Jackie's Warrior's almost flawless performance throughout most of the season.

The beneficiary of this late-season voting bias was none other than Elite Power.

Elite Power didn't make his debut in stakes races until just 28 days before the Breeders' Cup Sprint. After a victory in the slightly diluted Vosburgh (G2), he secured his first Grade 1 win by defeating Jackie's Warrior in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. I personally cast my Eclipse ballot in favor of Jackie's Warrior, and I continue to stand by that choice.

Interestingly, Elite Power now finds himself in a situation strikingly similar to the one Jackie's Warrior faced last season. But this time around, Elite Power has beaten his primary rival for the division's top spot, Gunite, in two of their three encounters.

Elite Power now will prepare for the Breeders' Cup Sprint, and Gunite might participate in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2) before the big event. If Gunite manages to secure victory in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, would he be deserving of the Eclipse? It's a challenging question, but my initial response would lean toward no.

It's quite a twist of fate that the horse I believed took the Eclipse from Jackie's Warrior last season now might face the possibility of having the Eclipse taken away from him in a remarkably similar manner.