Division rankings: Kentucky Derby winner Mage rises near the top

With Kentucky Derby 2023 in the books, Mage has risen toward the top of the 3-year-old male division. But, much like last year, the No. 1 ranked 3-year-old male below remains that way despite not winning the Derby.

Forte was scratched the morning of the race, but his position as the top dog in this division was only solidified by Mage’s Kentucky Derby win.

Before I dive into my thoughts on the Kentucky Derby and the argument for which horse resides at the top of this division, let's take a look at this week's updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Stilleto Boy. This guy did all the running last out in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and fell just short at the wire to lose by two noses to Proxy, a horse he defeated in his previous two starts this season. Given that, he has to be ranked ahead of Proxy. Recency bias doesn't exist in these rankings, so the head-to-head record along with his Grade 1 win matters here.

2. Proxy. Closed well to score his first stakes win of the season and second of his career in the Oaklawn Handicap. But I need to see much more from this guy. The Oaklawn was his first win of the season after an off-the-board finish in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and his runner-up finish to Stilleto Boy in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1).

3. Smile Happy. Super impressive on Kentucky Oaks day, defeating several ranked below when winning the Alysheba (G2). Now 2-for-3 this season, he appears to be a big player in this division, although I have to believe he will be limited to nine furlongs given his pedigree.

4. Art Collector. Ran well in the Alysheba to finish runner-up to Smile Happy. Previously he was runner-up to West Will Poewer in the New Orleans Classic (G2).

5. West Will Power. Disappointed as the favorite in the Alysheba when finishing third. Previously he was an easy winner over Art Collector in the New Orleans Classic.

Next 5: Cody's Wish, Defunded, Last Samurai, Country Gammer, Taiba.

Older dirt females

1. Clairiere. Ran down Secret Oath last out in the Apple Blossom (G1) to take over divisional leadership for now. Previously she was runner-up to Secret Oath in the Azeri (G2) at Oaklawn. Will run next in the Ogden Phipps (G1) on Belmont Stakes day.

2. Secret Oath. Ran strong again in defeat, this time in last week's La Troienne (G1) when she was runner-up to Played Hard. She maintains this spot despite her loss.
3. Search Results. Came back well when a close third, beaten two heads in the La Troienne. She is once again a major player in this division.

4. Played Hard. This gal made her seasonal debut in the La Troienne (G1) a winning one. She has now won three graded stakes in her career, off the board only two times in 15 career starts.

5. A Mo Reay. Well, she had a shot to move up here but she didn't get the job done in the La Troienne and finished fourth, beaten two lengths. She didn't run badly, but she didn't run as well as expected. She has won two graded stakes this, including the Beholder Mile (G1) at Santa Anita. She stays in the top five for now. Next 5: Nest, Pass the Champagne, Fun to Dream, Adare Manor, Frost Point.
3-year-old males

1. Forte. Late scratch last week prevented him from running in the Kentucky Derby, but given the result, he not only stays up top here, his position was bolstered even more. Remember, he defeated the Kentucky Derby winner Mage in his last two starts.
2. Mage. Certainly was the best horse in the Kentucky Derby, making a strong move to post a facile win where he scored his first graded-stakes win in only his fourth career start. Is expected to move on to the Preakness, where he still has questions to be answered. He won't need to repeat that Derby performance to win the Preakness, but I, like everyone else, am interested to see how he handles the two-week turnaround, among other things.
3. Angel of Empire. Came with his run in the Kentucky Derby but he fell short and finished third, beaten a little over a length. I still feel like he might end up on top of this division when all is said and done.
4. Two Phil's. Really impressed me in the Kentucky Derby as he withstood a fast early pace that he was close to and held his ground in the stretch to finish a very good runner-up. Some could say he ran the best race of any. Will skip the Preakness.
5. Tapit Trice. Really surprised at his race in the Kentucky Derby, where he was never really involved and finished seventh, beaten nearly 10 lengths. But make no mistake, this guy will be back for the Belmont and will be one of the favorites in that event.
Next 5: Practical Move, Disarm, First Mission, Arabian Knight, Verifying.

3-year-old females 1. Pretty Mischievous. Impressive in her Kentucky Oaks win and takes over this top spot. She is now 5-for-7 on her career, never finishing off the board. 2. Faiza. Drops to No. 2 this week despite not running. The reason? The horse who has finished behind her in the runner-up spot her last two starts, And Tell Me Nolies, finished 12th in the Kentucky Oaks, beaten 17 lengths.
3. Wet Paint. Finished fourth as the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks, she previously demolished the Fantasy (G3) field at Oaklawn. The Oaks was her first loss on dirt. 4. The Alys Look. Finished third in the Kentucky Oaks, and before that she was third to Southlawn in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). 5. Gambling Girl. Nearly pulled off the Kentucky Oaks upset, losing by a neck. Winless in four starts this season, but she has placed in two graded stakes. Next 5: Southlawn, Defining Purpose, Dorth Vader, Julia Shining, Flying Connection.

Turf males

1. Modern Games. He couldn't make it easy for me? Disappointed as the runner-up last out in the Maker's Mark Mile (G1), but he retains this top spot for now. This guy did win the Eclipse last season and at least has made a start in this country already.

2. Chez Pierre. Surprise winner of the Maker's Mark Mile, he went from 24-1 to 9-1 in the final tote board flash before they left the gate. Not only did he win, he won by a wide margin quite easily. Before the Maker's Mark, he had lost only one race from six starts, so perhaps that one loss in the Tampa Bay Stakes (G3) was an aberration?

3. Casa Creed. Now a 7-year-old, but he is in the best form of his career. He ran lights out when narrowly missing overseas in Saudi Arabia in the Turf Sprint (G3) and finishing second. The Saudi race was his first start this season.

4. Up to the Mark. Turf Classic (G1) win on Kentucky Derby day is certainly enough to move him up to this spot in a division starving for a horse to assert himself as the top.

5. Hong Kong Harry. Rebounded from his poor Kilroe Mile (G1) effort last out to finish a good runner-up in the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs. Was 5-for-6 last season with three graded-stakes wins. A contender in this division.

Next 5: Gold Phoenix, Spooky Channel, Emmanuel, Annapolis, Ottoman Fleet.

Turf females

1. War Like Goddess. Was outstanding in her return to the races last out running away in the Bewitch (G3) at Keeneland. Simply put, she is the best long-distance grass horse based in the U.S. of either gender.

2. In Italian. Facile winner of the Jenny Wiley (G1) three weeks ago at Keeneland, she moves to this top spot for now. Before that she ran well when runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

3. With the Moonlight. Runner-up to In Italian in the Jenny Wiley, this gal won her other two starts this season in Dubai, both Group 2.

4. Didia. Unbeaten in four starts in this country since coming from Argentina. Won the Modesty (G3) last out.

5. Caravel. A winner of her last four starts, this turf sprinter is headed overseas to run at Royal Ascot.

Next 5: Fluffy Socks, Spendarella, Shantisara, Higher Truth, Queen Goddess.

Male sprinters

1. Elite Power. Certainly showed he is the best in the world now sprinting on the dirt. Overpowered the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3) field. Will come back to the states to run in major races and build a nice Eclipse-worthy resume.

2. Cody's Wish. Made his 2023 debut a winning one in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1). Will head to the Met Mile (G1) next on Belmont Day. 

3. Sibelius. Surprise winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), defeating Gunite, among others. Before that this guy won the listed Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Won his first graded stakes in late December at Gulfstream in the Mr. Prospector (G3).

4. Gunite. Disappointed somewhat in last out in the Golden Shaheen when third as the favorite. Before that he was simply the best of the rest when runner-up to Elite Power in Saudi Arabia.

5. Repo Rocks. Was impressive Saturday, winning the Westchester (G3) after disappointing as the favorite in the Carter (G1) previously. Won his first three 2023 starts, the Toboggan (G3) and the Stymie, a listed stakes, both at Aqueduct, and the black-type Blitzen at Parx. Likely will go next in the Met Mile.

Next 5: Hoist the Gold, Skelly, Doppelganger, Tejano Twist, Spirit of Makena.

Female sprinters

1. Goodnight Olive.  Maintains the top spot here despite her loss in the Derby City Distaff (G1). The Eclipse winner from last season started her season off with a win in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland a few weeks ago. 

2. Matareya. Upset the top one in the Derby City Distaff (G1), and it appears that she and Wicked Halo will make Goodnight Olive work for a repeat Eclipse in this division. 

3. Wicked Halo. Runner-up in the Derby City Distaff, this 4-year-old filly ran well in the Breeders' Cup last fall to finish third in the Filly & Mare Sprint. Before that effort she won two Grade 2 events, the Raven Run at Keeneland and the Prioress Stakes at Saratoga. She returned this season in the Matron Stakes at Oaklawn a few weeks ago and defeated Matareya.

4. Frank's Rockette. Won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) at Gulfstream in early March and the the Roxelana Stakes at Churchill in late April.

5. Fun to Dream. Winner of the Santa Monica (G2) earlier this season, her connections tried to stretch out last time in the Beholder Mile (G1), where she finished runner-up.

Next 5: Echo Zulu, Maryquitecontray, Elm Drive, Swayin to and Fro, My Destiny.

Forte still resides at the top of the division

As fans and media alike sift through the aftermath of several Kentucky Derby storylines that are good and bad, let’s stay in our lane and discuss the newly crowned Kentucky Derby winner and the scratched favorite of the race, Forte.

I’m going to be brutally honest here. Forte is still the top-ranked 3-year-old in these rankings, and in fact, his lead only grew. Never mind the National Thoroughbred Racing Association poll, which is known for recency bias, in my opinion.

Forte defeated Mage in his last two starts. Although Mage did win the Kentucky Derby impressively, by no means will he jump Forte to the top spot right now. In fact, Mage’s win in the Kentucky Derby flattered Forte.

The Kentucky Derby win was Mage’s first stakes win of any kind, and although I believe his future is bright, I think we all need to see more for him to supplant Forte. The Preakness turnaround of two weeks will be telling for this lightly raced son of Good Magic. He is not a sure thing. A lot of questions still to be answered.

Ideally it would be great for racing to have Forte in the Preakness field, but as of this writing that hope appears to be slim. As I have written many times before, part of being good or even great in this sport is actually running in and winning the big races. If Forte misses the Preakness and Mage goes on to win the second jewel of the Triple Crown, he will have to take over the top spot.

For now, though, Forte still deserves to be No. 1.

As for the Preakness Stakes and Mage’s chances? Right now it would appear to me that Mage will face a field that won’t require him to be 100 percent to win. But again, how the short turnaround affects this colt is anyone’s guess. Mage and the Lexington Stakes winner, First Mission, will most certainly be underlays from a wagering standpoint in the race.

So here we are, moving on to the Preakness where the Mage story continues with his Venezuelan connections, a refreshing twist to this year’s Triple Crown series.