Division Rankings: Will Florida Derby offer Ky. Derby clues?

Last weekend the spotlight shined brightest on Hot Rod Charlie as he stole the show at the Fair Grounds with his facile Louisiana Derby win.

Could this weekend's Florida Derby (G1) be Greatest Honour's turn?

He appears to have this historically weak Florida Derby field at his mercy, but would another win at Gulfstream offer us anymore clues as far as Greatest Honour's Kentucky Derby chances? Very likely, no.

More on this below, but first, lets take a look at this week's updated Divisional Rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Charlatan – Back in California after his Saudi Cup run, he had his first work since that February runner-up finish. We will likely see him back on Kentucky Derby weekend in a stakes race at Churchill Downs.

2. Knicks Go – He was simply outrun in the early part of the of the Saudi Cup, never getting the lead he needed to be able to dictate the pace of the race. I still believe he is the goods, and hope he returns to the races again after a freshening.

3. Jesus' Team – Set to run in this weekend's Dubai World Cup and, believe it or not, he is among the best U.S. hopes along with Mystic Guide. That is quite a statement. His runner-up in the Pegasus was solid, and prior, he was again runner-up to Knicks Go in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

4. Mystic Guide – Certainly a nice effort in his 2021 debut, an easy six-length win the Razorback (G3). Still, I will temper my expectations for now. His 108 Beyer, while certainly nice, was over a very sloppy racetrack where some horses just take to it. Still feel he is a cut below a few others in this division right now. Will run this weekend and be the tepid favorite in Dubai.

5. Maxfield – Truth be told, he ran a fine race in the Santa Anita Handicap, considering the circumstances. First start beyond 8 1/2 furlongs, shipped across country, and was beaten by just two lengths finishing third to Idol and Express Train on their home track. He likely got a lot out of this race and should be better going forward.

Next 5: Idol, Express Train, Title Ready, Happy Saver, Silver State.

Older dirt females

1. Monomoy Girl – Got the job done in her 2021 debut, a two-length win in the Bayakoa (G3) at Oaklawn. She improved her remarkable record to 14 wins from 16 starts. Perhaps it was the mud, the layoff or a combination of both, but I felt like the Bayakoa was not her "A" race. This division is more open than many realize. A showdown looms with Swiss Skydiver in the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn on April 17.

2. Swiss Skydiver – Her much anticipated 4-year-old debut was better than anyone could have envisioned. She shipped to California and was an easy winner in the Beholder Mile (G1) over a strong field. As I have written before, she is a true throwback shipping all over the country for what seems like every big event in her division. A clash with Monomoy Girl is on the table for her next start, where she will ship to Oaklawn for the Apple Blossom.

3. Gamine – On the work tab and will make her 2021 debut sprinting in the Derby City Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs on May 1. In her last start, she was a dominant winner of the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Keep an eye on the Met Mile against the boys in June as a possible target should things go well on May 1.

4. Shedaresthedevil – The Kentucky Oaks winner from last season returned with a very impressive and gritty win in the Azeri (G2) at Oaklawn, where she held off the late run of the very good Letruska. She will skip the Apple Blossom and wait for the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs on April 30.

5. Letruska – A fascinating story, this mare started her career in in Mexico City and ran six times, all wins. Now 12 for 17 with three graded stakes wins in this country, she is in the best form of her career and a real player in this division. When was the last time we saw this from a horse who made its first six starts in Mexico City?

Next 5:  Sanenus, Valiance, As Time Goes By, Vexatious, Harvest Moon.

3-year-old males

1. Essential Quality – Remains on top here, where he belongs. Remember, he is the Juvenile Eclipse and Breeders' Cup winner. He was brilliant when getting his 3-year-old campaign underway Oaklawn in the Southwest (G3) and hasn't been defeated. By winning the Southwest one would think the next logical spot would be the Arkansas Derby over the same track, but his connections have chosen to avoid Rebel winner Concert Tour and instead run at Keeneland in the the Blue Grass (G2).

2. Concert Tour – His Rebel Stakes win was outstanding, he had to work to secure the early lead and then was able to set reasonable fractions and have more than enough in the stretch to win geared down. We now know he can ship cross country to a track he hasn't run over and win. So far he has more boxes checked off for me than all the others but one. Also, pedigree wise, he should relish going longer. Will go next in the Arkansas Derby.

3. Life Is Good – Joins a long list of horses from previous seasons that impressed on the Kentucky Derby trail only to be injured and forced to miss the Triple Crown events. Impressive winner of the San Felipe (G2) by eight lengths and unbeaten in three starts, he is now off the Kentucky Derby trail due to a hind-end injury. If we see him run again, it will not be until late summer or the fall at the earliest. 

4. Medina Spirit – Reminds me a bit of 1997 Kentucky Derby winner Silver Charm as he has shown a lot of fight on the track and won the battle for second after being headed in the stretch of the San Felipe. Although he lost by eight, it wasn’t his fault he received a questionable ride in the San Felipe; he still ran well, considering he also had a slightly entrapped epiglottis that was found after the race which required surgery. Back on the work tab, the Santa Anita Derby should be next.

5. Hot Rod Charlie – Really handed it to the “house” horses at the Fair Grounds in last weekend’s Louisiana Derby proving much the best in the 1 3/16 mile test. Ranked No. 6 last week, he has shown me enough to be placed in the Top 5. Additionally, his win sends a strong message to the others, the California based 3-year-old’s are heads and shoulders the best, outside of the No. 1 Essential Quality.

Next 5: Greatest Honour, Midnight Bourbon, Risk Taking, Hozier, Dream Shake.

3-year-old females

1. Travel Column – Was much the best in last weekend's Fair Grounds Oaks beating the previous No.1, Clairiere. These two have quite the rivalry going right now as they have faced one another in three straight races, trading wins and running one-two in all three. Next up? Another date in the Kentucky Oaks on the last day of April.

2. Clairiere – Simply had too much to do in the stretch of the Fair Grounds Oaks, still ran on well to finish a clear second to Travel Column. The nine furlongs of the Kentucky Oaks may be in her favor the next time these two meet.

3. Aunt Pearl – Finally back on the work tab, she is targeting a return on the April 30 Kentucky Oaks undercard in the Edgewood Stakes (G2). Her win last out in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf came at the expense of 13 others, five of whom were from overseas. Look for her to run overseas this season if she comes back ate age three like she left off in her juvenile season.

4. Vequist – We have seen this happen before: Good-to-great 2-year-olds return at age 3 but haven't developed as much as others in their division. Her return in the Davona Dale Stakes was abysmal, beaten over 25 lengths where she finished ninth. I will keep her in the top five for now; she has earned one mulligan. Will run next in Keeneland's Ashland Stakes (G1) on April 3.

5. Dayoutoftheoffice – The Frizette (G1) winner ran her race in the Breeders' Cup, but she couldn't hold off Vequist. Remember, she defeated Vequist in the Frizette, but that was at a mile around one turn. Should finally make her sophomore debut in the April 3 Ashland at Keeneland.

Next 5: , Wholebodemeister, Moonlight d'Oro, Will's Secret, Beautiful Gift.

Turf males

1. Channel Maker – Really ran a gallant race to finish second in Neom Turf Cup In Saudi Arabia. He is clearly now in the best form of his career at the ripe old age of 7. Now he is in Dubai in search of another big payday in this weekend's Dubai Sheema Classic, an event where no U.S. based horse has ever won it. 

2. Colonel Liam – Certainly ran well in last weekend's Muniz Memorial Stakes (G2) where he scored a workman like win by two lengths. Remains here in the No. 2 spot because I question who he has beaten, and believe Channel Maker is the better grass horse right now. The runner-up in the Muniz, Two Emmys, had never run in a stakes and was coming off of seven straight races in the optional claiming ranks. 

3. Hit the Road – This guy was among the favorites back in the 2019 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf but was off the board. Now better than ever at age 4, he is 2-for-2 this season after scoring the biggest win of his career in last weekend's Kilroe Mile (G1) at Santa Anita.

4. Ivar – The winner of the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) last season, he came running at the end of the Breeders' Cup Mile but was too late as he finished fourth, beaten less than two lengths. Back in training now, so look for him to return in the spring.

5. United – Won his 2021 debut with a solid win in the San Luis Rey (G3) at Santa Anita. Up next his connections will point the 6-year-old to the Charles Whittingham Stakes (G2) at 1 1/4 miles on May 29.

Next 5: Mo Forza, Zulu Alpha, Domestic Spending, Laccario, Smooth like Strait.

Turf females

1. Mean Mary - Occupied this spot for a few weeks in 2020, she starts off 2021 at No. 1 based on her stellar campaign from last year. If she runs like she did in 2020, she is the favorite for the Eclipse in this division. 

2. Harvey's Lil Goil – She was third in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf last season at age 3 and did win the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) at Keeneland last fall. She is back in 2021 and will be a player in this division. Has been off the board only once in nine starts.

3. Mucho Unusual – Runner-up last time in the Buena Vista (G2), she previously scored wins in the Megahertz (G3) and Frankel Stakes (G2), both at Santa Anita.

4. Viadera – Winner of her last three starts, which included the Matriarch (G1) at Del Mar in late November. Still hasn't worked, and will likely drop unless she races soon.

5. Jolie Olimpica – Faced the boys in the recent six-furlong San Simeon Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita and could muster up only a third-place finish, beaten a little over two lengths. Previously she returned from a six-month layoff to finish runner-up in the Las Cienegas (G3). Was one of the best in this division in 2020, would like to see her go longer.

Next 5: Civil Union, Got Stormy, Blowout, Charmaine's Mia, Micheline.

Male sprinters

1. C Z Rocket – He beat the previous No. 1 ranked Whitmore in the Hot Springs Stakes last out to get to the top of the division, but for how long? Will face his old rival for a third straight time in the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn on April 10 and divisional leadership will again be on the line.

2. Whitmore – 2020 Sprint champ ran about as well as you can ask for in his 2021 debut against C Z Rocket, and the good news is that it appears he hasn't lost a step at age eight. Has won the Count Fleet Sprint a record three times and that's where he runs next.

3. Nashville - Might be a bit high in this spot, but I will forgive his last-out loss to Charlatan in the Malibu (G1) and give him another chance. He was sensational in three prior starts sprinting.

4. Wildman Jack - Easily won the Palos Verdes (G3) last out, and that is good enough to move him to No. 4 here for now, considering graded stakes sprint wins are few and far between this early in the season.

5. Brickyard Ride - Ranked too high here? Perhaps. But see above about graded sprint wins this early in the season. His win in the San Carlos (G2) was scintillating, and he is 2-for-2 on the season.

Next 5: Firenze Fire, Sleepy Eyes Todd, Yaupon, Mischevious Alex, Chateau.

Female sprinters

1. Gamine – Will be back sprinting again in her first start of 2021 in the Derby City Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs on May 1. I believe she might be the best sprinter, male or female, in the country. If all goes well in the Derby City, look for her to stretch out again in the Met Mile against the boys in June.

2. Bell's the One – Was last seen running third in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall. Now back in training for a 2021 campaign, her first planned race this year is the Madison (G1) at Keeneland on April 3.

3. Frank's Rockette – Winner of three graded stakes last season, she started 2021 off with a win in the American Beauty Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Will likely run next in the Carousel at Oaklawn on April 10.

4. Merneith - Won the Santa Monica (G2) last out and was previously third in the La Brea (G1) in December. Looks like she is finally realizing her potential for trainer Bob Baffert. In light training, she is not expected back until at least May.

5. Kimari - Was super impressive in the Spring Fever Stakes at Oaklawn, her 4-year-old debut. Was more than four lengths clear of the runner-up, Casual. My knock against her is the lack of races; perhaps she will put together a full season and be an Eclipse contender in this division.

Next 5: Venetian Harbor, Sconsin, Pacific Gale, Amy's Challenge, Wildwood's Beauty.

So here we are, a little over five weeks away from the Kentucky Derby and over the next three weeks several 3-year-old stars will be in action, but all in separate races. It is fair to ask, will we learn much in the coming weeks?

With Essential Quality slated to go in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, the same track he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at, he will avoid a confrontation with Concert Tour in the Arkansas Derby. The latter will be the prohibitive favorite at Oaklawn. Louisiana Derby hero Hot Road Charlie will train up to The First Saturday in May, and Medina Spirit will be favored out west in the Santa Anita Derby.

The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct will certainly offer some new information with some interesting storylines there, but that's about it. 

Of all of the Kentucky Derby contenders on everyone's shortlist, I feel like Greatest Honour has the most question marks, and I suspect few of these questions to be answered this weekend.

I don't use the term "historically weak" loosely, but looking back over the past 40 years, this 2021 Florida Derby ranks as one of, if not the weakest renewal on paper. 

Of the 10 horses entered against Greatest Honour, a whopping five have only maiden wins to their credit. 

Of the 11 horses entered, there have been a total of four stakes races won by three horses. Two of those stakes were won by Greatest Honour.

Of course, this isn't Greatest Honour's fault, he can only run against who is lined up against him. But fans looking for more information in regards to Greatest Honour's Kentucky Derby chances may be disappointed this weekend.

With visually impressive wins already this season in the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth, Greatest Honour would be the Kentucky favorite in most seasons. But, his Holy Bull win was on the slow side, speed figure-wise. His his next race, the Fountain of Youth, was even slower on the speed figure scale, so slow in fact that one figure was elevated to equal his Holy Bull (89) even though the original Beyer figure of 84 was by most accounts correct.

Several of the other top Kentucky Derby contenders have run multiple races faster than Greatest Honour's best.

Now again, in fairness to Greatest Honour, speed figures are one part of the game that can be very subjective at times. I know this.

Another aspect to all of this is that Greatest Honour is a closer, who likes to come from well off the pace, no matter if it is slow or fast. With closers at the mercy of pace, there are times when speed figures can be misleading.

So, what can we learn from the Florida Derby this weekend? Perhaps another lightly raced horse surprises us all and takes a huge step forward. The presence of Spielberg, the runner-up last time in the slop to Essential Quality is certainly a good barometer to use as well.

Make no mistake, though, Greatest Honour should be victorious on Saturday, and the immediate question on the minds of many speed figure conscious fans will be, how fast did he run, has he taken a step forward from his previous two efforts?

Is Greatest Honour a viable Kentucky Derby contender or pretender? There is a very good chance that this weekend’s Florida Derby will not yield us an answer to that question.