Division Rankings: Where does McKinzie fit as a sprinter?

Last weekend, the Eclipse Award race for Champion Male Sprinter picked up steam with winners in three key races all moving into these rankings' top five.

Up until recently, there had been minimal movement in the division for the obvious reason: lack of stakes events due to the COVID-19 pandemic. With the widespread resumption of racing, the sprinters now appear poised for an intriguing battle.

Among the influential races, first up was Saturday's Aristides Stakes at Churchill Downs. While Volatile was the prohibitive favorite in his first added-money start, the field was no pushover.

It is an understatement to say that Volatile passed his first real test with flying colors. In winning by eight widening lengths and stopping the timer in 1:07.57 for six furlongs, Volatile ran perhaps the best 3/4-mile sprint under the Twin Spires. This is no exaggeration. Although Volatile was issued a 111 Beyer speed figure, I calculated his number more in the 118 range. It was that good. 

What does all of this mean for Volatile? Well, it was one listed stakes win, but the 4-year-old late bloomer by Violence looks like a serious championship contender if he can stay healthy. We could see him next in a race like the Met Mile (G1) should connections want to stretch out a bit, or there's the Grade 1 sprints later in the summer at Saratoga.

Less than an hour after Volatile stunned the racing world with his performance, it was Vekoma’s turn in the Carter Handicap (G1) at Belmont Park. 

Trainer George Weaver has been up front with his plans for Vekoma in 2020. The Blue Grass (G2) winner from last year around two turns will go shorter.

With an impressive season debut in late March, winning Gulfstream Park's Sir Shackleton Stakes, Vekoma took on the best sprint field of this weekend. With Grade 1 winners Mind Control and Firenze Fire entered, this race was likely going to decide who would take over the No. 1 in the division. 

The bettors got it right as Vekoma went off the favorite following the race day scratch of Performer, and he did not disappoint as he too dominated and drew off to a facile 7 ¼-length win. Clearly a better horse around one turn, Vekoma was issued a career-high 110 Beyer speed figure. He too could go next in the Met Mile and, for the time being, moves to No. 1 on my list.

For starters, we know Vekoma can run anywhere, wet or dry, with wins over four different tracks. He also has the resume showing he can perform at the top level. 

The last of the trio of sprint events run over the week was Sunday’s Triple Bend (G3) at Santa Anita. The big draw here was McKinzie. He was making his first start since his debacle in the Saudi Cup, when he was up the track when finishing 11th. Count me among those who were skeptical on his chances in the Triple Bend. 

Always within close contact of the leaders, McKinzie raced three wide on the turn for home and dug in to put away a stubborn rival in Fashionably Fast to win by a comfortable length and a half. 

This was a big race for McKinzie. He showed no ill effects from his trip to Saudi Arabia and appears set to run next in the July 4 Met Mile. The real question for me, though, is whether this the same McKinzie we saw at times last season.

I think the jury is still out, as his Beyer speed figure of 97 isa bit low compared to the triple-digit numbers submitted over the weekend by Volatile and Vekoma registered.

For now, McKinzie occupies the No. 3 spot in the sprint rankings ahead of Volatile. How could he rank ahead of Volatile if that one ran so much faster? Well, we know McKinzie can take his game to a number of tracks and prevail at a high level. With Volatile, we're still waiting for confirmation.

With that, a look at this week's Division Rankings...

Older Dirt Males

1.  Maximum Security - If he comes back as the same horse he was before the controversy, he is clearly the top runner in this division. Remember, he has finished behind only one rival in 10 career starts. He still holds this ranking because he has earned it on the racetrack. Don't blame the horse for any wrongdoings by his former trainer. Look for him to potentially return in the July 18 San Diego Handicap (G2) at Del Mar.

2.  By My Standards – Three starts in 2020 are in the books for this son of Goldencents, and one thing is clear: He has matured into a Eclipse contender at age 4 and is clearly the horse to keep an eye on in this division. His last win in the Oaklawn Handicap came against the best group of older horses assembled for a race on U.S. soil this season. He could take over the No. 1 spot with another win.

3.  Tom's d'Etat – A winner of his last three, he is in the best form of his career now at age 7. His Oaklawn Mile Stakes win over Improbable and nine others was deceptively good. The decision to skip the Oaklawn Handicap has to be questioned, given the fact that with few tracks running there are limited stakes to choose from. He will go next in the Stephen Foster (G2) at Churchill on June 27.

4.  Code of Honor – Finally made his 2020 debut in last weekend's Westchester (G3) at Belmont where he wore down Endorsed to win by a half-length. He has the Met Mile as an option.

5.  Mucho Gusto – Much-improved from last season, he took an eventful Saudi Cup trip. He likely would have finished third instead of fourth had jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. not been so concerned with Maximum Security for the entirety of the race. With COVID-19 leading to cancellation of the Dubai World Cup (G1), his more recent plans were dashed. Needs to run soon or will drop even more.

Next 5: Improbable, Warrior's Charge, Mr. Freeze, Tacitus, Owendale.  

Older Dirt Females

1.  Midnight Bisou – Off since her Saudi Cup runner-up finish to Maximum Security, she could meet her old rival, Monomoy Girl, in the Fleur de Lis (G2) on June 27. 

2.  Ce Ce – No excuses in the Santa Maria (G2) last out at Santa Anita where she checked in a flat third. Still, with two Grade 1 wins already in 2020 she easily holds on to this spot.

3.  Ollie's Candy - Ran a top race race in the Apple Blossom, as she did all the work on the front end while setting some quick fractions. She has finished behind Ce Ce in both of her starts this year, the other being the Beholder Mile (G1) at Santa Anita. She will go next in Saturday's Ogden Phipps (G1) at Belmont Park.

4.  Point of Honor - Closed from 14th, where she was more than 23 lengths back, to run third in the Apple Blossom after getting squeezed back at the break. She has run well in both of her starts this season and will also run in the Ogden Phipps.

5.  Serengeti Empress - Ran a clunker in her last when she checked in 11th in the Apple Blossom. Prior to that, this need-the-lead type was a romping winner of the Azeri (G2). It looks like the Fleur de Lis is up next.

Next 5: Street Band, Dunbar Road, Fighting Mad, Monomoy Girl, Guarana.

3-Year-Old-Males

1.  Tiz the Law – Should be the prohibitive favorite in the Belmont Stakes on June 20. He has made only two starts this year, but I believe he deserves this spot for now. Still, you have to run to win Eclipse awards.

2.  Honor A. P. – Last weekend's Santa Anita Derby set up nicely for this son of Honor Code as he stalked the dueling leaders for most of the race and took over turning for home en route to a rather easy win. Was a good effort for sure, but I feel like he still has questions to be answered.

3.  Authentic – Suffered his first loss when a runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby but he only drops one spot because, quite frankly, everything went wrong for him. He broke awkwardly, losing ground at the start; was wide around the first turn; and battled with two others for the lead throughout. Hanging in there for the place spot, he should move forward off this and into his next start, likely the Haskell (G1) on July 18 at Monmouth Park.

4.  Maxfield - His 2020 debut in the Matt Winn (G3) was impressive. A Grade 1 winner already in the Breeders' Futurity at age 2, he should get better as the distances get longer but now will miss the rest of the season due to a non-displaced condylar fracture of his leg.

5.  King Guillermo - Impressed me with his runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby behind Nadal, showing everyone that his 49-1 upset win in his previous start, the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), was no fluke. Apparently his connections have decided to sit him now for 126 days and train up to the Kentucky Derby. It's a questionable decision at best in my opinion.

Next 5: Charlatan, Sole Volante, Independence Hall, Modernist, Ete Indien.

3-Year-Old-Females

1.  Swiss Skydiver – On a roll, she widened her lead in this division. The Santa Anita Oaks (G2) was her third straight graded stakes score. Her connections are targeting several major races including the Alabama (G1), Kentucky Oaks and possibly the Preakness (G1) in early October.

2.  Donna Veloce – Big things were expected this year from the daughter of Uncle Mo, and she certainly delivered in her first start of 2020, winning the Santa Ysabel (G3). She is back on the sidelines now, however, due to a physical setback.

3.  Venetian Harbor – The runaway Las Virgenes (G2) winner tried her best in the Fantasy but was simply second best. Some 10 lengths clear of third place, she looks like a candidate for the newly rescheduled Acorn Stakes (G1) at Belmont.

4.  Finite – Disappointed as the odds-on favorite in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) when she was off the board, finishing fourth. This snapped a five-race winning streak. Previously ranked No. 1, she took a big drop but will have opportunities to move back up returning to training soon after minor bone chip surgery.

5.  Tonalist's Shape – Rebounded from her loss to Swiss Skydiver in the Gulfstream Park Oaks with a nice win in Gulfstream's Hollywood Wildcat Stakes. She now has three stakes wins on the season and could join the fray in the Acorn.

Next 5: Bonny South, Shedaresthedevil, Franks's Rockette, Kimari, Sharing.

Turf Males

1.  United - Takes over this No. 1 spot after his nose win in the Whittingham Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita. Also the winner of the San Marcos to get his 2020 season underway, he's 2-for-2 on the year.

2.  Zulu Alpha - On the sidelines for a brief freshening, the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) and Mac Diarmida Stakes (G2) winner tasted his first defeat of the season last out in the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream when runner-up to Bemma's Boy. Could get the chance to reclaim the No. 1 spot in his next expected start in the Elkhorn (G2) at Keeneland, where United may also be in the gate.

3.  Raging Bull – Ranked several times last season based off multiple graded stakes placings, he broke through in a big way with a facile win in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) at Santa Anita.

4.  Arklow - Winner of the Joe Hirsch (G1) last fall at Belmont, he has appeared once this season, when he finished fifth behind Zulu Alpha in the Pegasus World Cup Turf but has a string of recent works. Will finally return to the track Saturday in the Louisville Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs.

5.  Factor This - At 2-for-3 on the season, he won the Muniz Memorial Stakes (G2) and the Fair Grounds Stakes (G3) in his last two starts.

Next 5: Next Shares, River Boyne, Bemma's Boy, Without Parole, Mo Forza.

Turf Females

1.  Starship Jubilee – Unbeaten in three stakes starts this season, she takes her game north to Woodbine in the June 27 Nassau Stakes (G2). Starship Jubilee was also recently named Canada's 2019 Horse of the Year.

2.  Rushing Fall – Looked really good in her seasonal debut when defeating Got Stormy, among others, in the Beaugay Stakes (G3) at Belmont. Maybe she can finally contend for an Eclipse this season. The Jenny Wiley (G1) runs at Keeneland on July 11 

3.  Keeper Ofthe Stars – A nice win in the Gamely (G1) last out at Santa Anita makes it two graded stakes win in a row for this daughter of Midnight Lute. She is now 2-for-3 on the season.

4.  Jolie Olimpica – Rebounded nicely from her only career loss to Gamely winner Keeper Ofthe Stars to win the Monrovia (G2) at Santa Anita. Also won the Las Cienegas Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita earlier this year. She will likely try and stretch again for her next start.

5.  Mean Mary – She's 2-for-2 on the season with wins in the Le Prevoyante Stakes (G3) and Orchid Stakes (G3), both at Gulfstream.

Next 5: Got Stormy, Newspaperofrecord, Magic Star, Jehozacat, Gentle Ruler.

Male Sprinters

1.  Vekoma - He takes over the top spot here after his runaway Carter Handicap (G1) win. He is now 2-for-2 this season, and his connections will keep him around one turn to try and win the Eclipse in this division. This could be the Met Mile favorite.

2.  Whitmore - Falls to No. 2 this week, but he will have plenty of chances to reclaim it. He won the Count Fleet Sprint (G3) at Oaklawn in his last start. With two wins in three starts, he shows no signs of slowing down at age 7.

3.  McKinzie – Rebounded from his poor Saudi Cup showing to post a win the Triple Bend (G2) last Sunday at Santa Anita. The problem with this performance was that it was much slower speed figure wise than both Vekoma and Volatile ran the same weekend. I am not convinced he is the same horse we saw at times last season, but the Met Mile awaits.

4.  Volatile - Jumps all the way to No. 4 here after just his first stakes start, but what a stakes start it was. Although he was assigned "only" a 111 Beyer speed figure, I calculated the race much faster, in the 118 range. It was one of the most impressive sprint performances ever seen under the Twin Spires. 

5.  Mind Control - Started off 2020 with a win in the Toboggan Stakes (G3) and the Tom Fool (G3) at Aqueduct. Just didn't have it in the Carter last out as his connections felt he didn't care for the off track.

Next 5: Firenze Fire, Flagstaff, New York Central, Cistron, Network Effect.

Female Sprinters

1.  Hard Not to Love - Covfefe left a huge void at the top of this division and no other has staked a real claim to this spot. Hard Not to Love won the seven-furlong Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita but in her last two starts she has tried to stretch out in the Beholder Mile and Santa Maria at Santa Anita, where she has performed admirably with a second and a third. 

2.  Mia Mischief - Disappointed as the odds-on favorite in her last start, the Winning Colors (G3) at Churchill Downs. Previously won the Carousel Stakes at Oaklawn in impressive fashion while beating Grade 1 winner Bellafina. 

3.  Come Dancing – Was up the track in the Apple Blossom in her first start of 2020. While that was around two turns, look for this gal to be back sprinting in New York the rest of the season. 

4.  Serengeti Empress - Never saw the lead in the Apple Blossom and faded to finish 11th. Although she hasn't sprinted yet this season, we know she can hang with the very best as she showed last August when runner-up to Covfefe in the Test (G1) at Saratoga. Stays ranked here in this division for now.

5.  Pink Sands - In a division lacking depth, she cracks the top five. Won her only start this year sprinting in the Inside Information (G2) at Gulfstream. 

Next 5: Bell's the One, Break Even, Special Relativity, Kimari, Bellafina.