Division Rankings: War Like Goddess gets a test vs. males

Robbed of an Eclipse award last season after dominating her division for most of the season, War Like Goddess has had an abbreviated campaign in 2022. With only three starts because of physical setbacks, the daughter of English Channel is still in this Eclipse race but faces a must win in this weekend’s Joe Hirsch (G1) against males.

With her main rival for division supremacy, Regal Glory, already having two Grade 1 wins on the season and another Grade 1 start this weekend in the First Lady at Keeneland, War Like Goddess is playing catchup in a big way.

Before I get into my thoughts on the try against males this weekend for War Like Goddess and the Eclipse scenarios for this division, let's take a look at this week's updated Division Rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Flightline. Simply put, his Pacific Classic (G1) performance was one of the best we have seen in the last several decades. If he shows up in the Breeders' Cup Classic, the others are running for second place, in my opinion. He has a stranglehold now on this Eclipse and Horse of the Year. The question on everyone's mind now is how fast will be run at Keeneland and how much will he win by. He will be the shortest-priced Breeders' Cup race favorite in history.

2. Life Is Good. Was pushed last weekend in his Woodward (G1) win over an extremely weak field. Still, a win is a win and this guy now has padded his resume this season with three Grade 1 wins. Still in the Eclipse race, his connections are saying he will run in the 1 1/4-mile Breeders' Cup Classic, a decision that will end his Eclipse hopes. This guy thrives at a eight to nine furlongs – not 10 furlongs. His lone try at that distance resulted in a clear struggle in the last 200 yards. To be blunt, I can't envision him even placing in the Classic, given the pace scenario. The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile gives him the best chance to win.

3. Olympiad. Got back to his winning ways in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and in a normal season he would be in the thick of things for this divisional Eclipse. But it would take one of the biggest upsets we have seen – defeating Flightline in the Breeders' Cup Classic – to win this divisional Eclipse. Will train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic.

4. Country Grammer. Ran his race when a distant runner-up to Flightline in the Pacific Classic, finishing clear of the rest. Like everyone else in this division, he is far behind Flightline. A disappointing runner-up in last weekend's Awesome Again (G1) at Santa Anita, he likely will skip the Breeders' Cup Classic.

5. Hot Rod Charlie. Was extremely game in last weekend's Lukas Classic (G2) win, where he again showed up to run. Appreciate a horse like this while he is in training; he shows up and runs every single time and has danced in all the big dances the last couple of seasons. He will go next in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Next 5: Happy Saver, Art Collector, Royal Ship, Defunded, Americanrevolution.

Older dirt females

1. Clairiere. Was up the track in the recent Personal Ensign (G1), where she suffered a cut to her tongue at the start of the race. Stays here on top in these rankings because she has defeated Malathaat in two of their three meetings. Recency bias aside, that matters in this rankings. Has the best resume of any in this division so far in 2022.

2. Malathaat. Scored her second win of the year from four starts in the Personal Ensign. That was her first Grade 1 win of the season, but she still hasn't done enough to unseat No. 1 Clairiere. Will run next in the Spinster (G1) this weekend, which would help her resume.

3. Search Results. Tough-luck runner-up to Malathaat in the Personal Ensign, this gal fires her best every time. Is a major player in this division and could be flying under the radar come Breeders' Cup time. Will train up to the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

4. Letruska. She had no excuses when finishing third in the Personal Ensign, and perhaps she has lost a step or two now at age 6. Will run in this weekend's Spinster next as well and still is dangerous when she is at the top of her game. Could jump back into Eclipse race with another Grade 1 win this weekend.

5. Blue Stripe. This mare from South America has been getting better and better, and don't be surprised to see her continue her winning ways and be a major contender at Breeders' Cup time. Scored a facile win in the recent Clement Hirsch (G1) at Del Mar. Will train up to the Breeders' Cup Distaff and will be a real threat for the upset.

Next 5: Shedaresthedevil, Pauline's Pearl, Private Mission, Miss Leslie, Miss Bigly.

3-year-old males

1. Epicenter. Facile winner of the Travers (G1) a few weeks back, this guy is a near cinch for the Eclipse in this division. Will train up the to the Breeders' Cup Classic, where he will have the daunting task of facing Flightline. Clear leader of the division – for now.
2. Taiba. In only five career starts. this guy has started in four Grade 1 events already. He was outstanding in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) scoring a facile win over others ranked below here. Appears to have stepped up his game and is maturing at the right time. Will go next in the Breeders' Cup Classic, and a win there is the only way he can unseat Epicenter.
3. Rich Strike. Had really validated himself in his last two starts. You have to give this guy credit for running a very good race in the Travers (G1) in August, missing the runner-up spot by a nose and a neck, and last weekend he nearly pulled off another huge upset when losing to Hot Rod Charlie by only a nose in the Lukas Classic (G2). He faced three proven Grade 1-winning older horses and stood tall. No other in this class has faced such a strong field.
4. Cyberknife. Didn't show the same early speed in the Penn Derby as he did in the Travers and as a result was left with too much to do in the stretch. Did manage to finish third, but the Haskell (G1) winner needed a win to have any shot in this Eclipse race. Could run in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.
5. Zandon. Ran his usual race in last weekend's Penn Derby, which resulted in another good on-the-board effort. In four graded stakes since his Blue Grass (G1) win in April, he has finished runner-up twice and third twice. Will not point to the Breeders' Cup Classic and instead will wait for the Cigar Mile (G1) in early December.
Next 5: Early Voting, Charge It, Jack Christopher, White Abarrio, Tawny Port.
3-year-old females

1. Nest. Dominant again last out in the Alabama (G1) at Saratoga, this gal clearly thrives the longer she goes. Before that she was a dominant winner of the CCA Oaks (G1), beating her rival Secret Oath by double-digit lengths. Seemingly has command of this division now, and she will run next in the Beldame (G2) this weekend before heading to the Breeders' Cup Distaff at Keeneland.

2. Secret Oath. Just wasn't good enough last out in the Cotillion (G1), where she finished a flat third, beaten over seven lengths. The Kentucky Oaks winner had too much to do with the winner, Society, taking the lead from the start and separating herself from the field on the far turn. Now 3-for-8 on the season, her connections will point her to the Breeders' Cup Distaff.
3. Moira. Dominant winner of the Queen's Plate over males in Canada, she is unbeaten in three starts this season. Her connections were thinking big and skipped the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. But instead of taking on the best in this division on the dirt in the U.S., they are putting her on the grass for this weekend's E. P. Taylor Stakes (G1) at Woodbine.

4. Echo Zulu. Made her return to the races a winning one in the recent Dogwood (G3), where she won by more than five lengths. This was the first time she has run since she was a gate scratch in the Acorn (G1) in June. Still feel that if given another chance at nine furlongs she could beat the best in this division.
5. Society. Ran well in the Cotillion last time out, running away with it to score by more than five lengths. The Cotillion was her second graded-stakes win. Before the Cotillion she won the Charles Town Oaks (G3). Need to see more before she moves up.
Next 5: Midnight Memories, Matareya, Interstatedaydream, Under the Stars, Desert Dawn.

Turf males

1. Count Again. This guy has racked up two Grade 1 wins already this season and is 3-for-4 on the year. His win over Smooth Like Strait in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) was his best effort yet. The only member of this division who has multiple Grade 1 wins on the season thus far. Stays here on top here as a placeholder for now, given that he is out for the season. Will drop from this spot soon.

2. Gufo. The Sword Dancer (G1) winner just missed at Kentucky Downs when runner-up to Red Knight in the Kentucky Turf Cup (G2). He started his 2022 season off right with a facile two-length win in the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream but then finished runner-up in the Man O' War Stakes (G1) and third in the Manhattan (G1), both at Belmont Park. He can take over the top spot in this division with a win in this weekend's Joe Hirsch (G1).

3. Yibir. Finally got back into the win column in the Princess of Wales's (G2) at Newmarket. Last year's Breeders' Cup Turf winner had two seconds and a third in his previous starts this season. Had to miss a scheduled start in this weekend's Sword Dancer because of a "minor setback," according to his connections, and now will miss the Breeders' Cup and point to the Dubai meet in 2023. He too will drop in the coming weeks.

4. Nations Pride. This 3-year-old has been super impressive in his races in the U.S., nearly sweeping the Turf Triple Series of races held in New York. His last time out in the Jockey Club Derby (G3) was his best effort yet, winning by more than six lengths.

5. Modern Games. Very impressive last time out in the Woodbine Mile (G1), beating a somewhat suspect field. He has a record of two wins from five starts this season. Unlike others, I am not convinced he is the best in this division here in North America.

Next 5: Red Knight, Golden Pal, Santin, Smooth Like Strait, Casa Creed.

Turf females

1. Regal Glory. Found the waters a bit too deep when trying males last time out in the Fourstardave (G1) as she finished runner-up, her first loss of the season. Previously she was outstanding in the Just a Game (G1) at Belmont on Belmont Stakes day. She started her season off with a win in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G3) and then won the Jenny Wiley (G1) at Keeneland over a strong field. Still has the lead in this division on the strength of her two Grade 1 wins this season and can add another when she runs this weekend in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland.

2. War Like Goddess. Defeated last out in the Flower Bowl (G2), but she was severely compromised by a extremely slow pace. Given her coming from far out of it running style, this loss can be forgiven. With the Joe Hirsch at the 12 furlongs distance against males this weekend on tap, the Breeders' Cup Turf against males could be the long-range goal for this gal.

3. Going Global. Upset last time out when finishing runner-up in the John C. Mabee (G2) at Del Mar. Before that she scored a facile three-length win in the Yellow Ribbon (G2) at Del Mar. Earlier this season she scored in the Royal Heroine (G2) at Santa Anita. The best female turfer on the West Coast, she will run in the Rodeo Drive (G1) this weekend at Santa Anita.

4. Bleecker Street. Suffered the first loss of her career last time out in the Diana (G1) after starting her career 7-for-7. She put in her run from the back but had too much to do when finishing third. I won't drop her off because of that one loss, but now she is on the shelf with an injury. Will drop in the coming weeks.

5. In Italian. Scored her biggest win to date last time in the Diana at Saratoga, where she went wire-to-wire, set quick early fractions and never came back to the field. She too is entered in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland.

Next 5: Dalika, Ocean Road, Technical Analysis, Avenue de France, Princess Grace.

Male sprinters

1. Jackie's Warrior. One of the bigger sprint upsets we have seen in a while, this guy was defeated in the Forego (G1) last time out at Saratoga when runner-up to Cody's Wish. Still, he has a stranglehold on this Eclipse and will get my vote win, lose, or draw in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, likely his final career start.

2. Jack Christopher. Back sprinting, he was dominant in the Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) at seven furlongs over the Saratoga oval. No matter which Breeders' Cup race his connections choose – the Dirt Mile or Sprint – he will be a major player.

3. American Theorem. Was runner-up in the Pat O'Brien (G2) after winning the last two graded sprint stakes out west. Still, he figures to be the West Coast's best hope come Breeders' Cup Sprint time. 

4. Cody's Wish. Upset winner of the Forego (G1), this guy appears to be the real deal. The Forego was his sixth win from 10 starts but only his second graded-stakes win. Will need to see him do it again before he moves up. Will point to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile instead of the Sprint for his next start

5. Golden Pal. Won last time out in the Troy Stakes (G3) at Saratoga, but only by a nose. Will make his final start prior to the Breeders' Cup in the Woodford Stakes (G2) at Keeneland. 

Next 5: Laurel River, Gunite, Aloha West, Howbeit, Brickyard Ride.

Female sprinters

1. Obligatory. Finished third to Goodnight Olive last out in the Ballerina (G1), but I still believe she will be the one to beat come Breeders' Cup day. Earlier this season she beat the best in this division except for Ce Ce in the Derby City Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs with a strong closing kick. Several could be ranked here, but she resides here for now.

2. Goodnight Olive. Unbeaten in three starts this season, and last time out she scored her first graded-stakes win in the Ballerina, defeating several ranked here. Like Cody's Wish on the male side, I will need to see her do it again before she moves up. 

3. Ce Ce. Rebounded from her off-the-board Ballerina loss last time out with a facile win in last weekend's Chillingworth (G3) at Santa Anita. I don't believe last season's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner is quite the same though now, and she will be an underlay in her defense of the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint title.

4. Just One Time. The beaten favorite in the Derby City, she finished third with no excuses. Previously this season she won the Madison (G1) at Keeneland and the Inside Information (G2) at Gulfstream.

5. Kimari. Another strong dirt sprint win, this time in the recent Gallant Bloom (G2) at Aqueduct. She is much better on the dirt, in my opinion, and now will point to the Breeders' Cup Sprint against the males. I like the move because she is better at this six-furlong distance than the seven furlongs of the F & M Sprint. She certainly deserves the shot, but her trainer, Wesley Ward, was a bit overzealous in stating that "I think she’s running every bit as good as the favorite (Jackie’s Warrior) in the Sprint.” I disagree. She has two Grade 2 wins on the season and one Grade 1 win overall in her career. Don't disrespect the leader of this division, who has proven it on the track many times in the last two seasons.

Next 5: Edgeway, Bell's the One, Caramel Swirl, Becca Taylor, Lady Rocket.

We all remember that last season, War Like Goddess ran five times before the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, winning four of them. She was the clear leader of the division, and in some voters' eyes, a slam dunk for the Eclipse win or lose come Breeders’ Cup Day.

Off as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, she ran her race but perhaps was moved a bit too soon with her closing kick and was edged at the wire to lose by a half-length while finishing third. Because recency bias is prevalent in this sport, she was denied the Eclipse she deserved, losing out to Loves Only You, who won that Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf – her only start in North America.

All that work War Like Goddess did earlier in this season, winning important races in her division from March to September, didn’t matter to the voters. All that mattered was her close loss in the Breeders’ Cup.

With that in mind, we turn the page to 2022. Having only three starts this season shouldn’t matter to voters. If War Like Goddess can put together a win this weekend against males – or even a good showing with a placing – and end the season by winning a Breeders’ Cup race, that should be enough to at least give the current leader of the division, Regal Glory, a run for her money.

I have long thought that War Like Goddess should be given a shot against males in the marathon turf races. With the Breeders’ Cup this year held at Keeneland, the Filly & mare Turf will be run at only 1 3/16 miles – too short for War Like Goddess. Trainer Bill Mott knows this and is running his star pupil against several veteran older males this weekend in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) over 12 furlongs.

If she runs well this weekend, another run against males could be in store for War Like Goddess in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. If she wins this weekend, defeating the likes of Gufo, Adhamo and Rockemperor, it would be a huge feather in her cap, vaulting her back into the Eclipse race.

Her chief rival in her division, the No. 1 ranked Regal Glory, already has two Grade 1 wins on the season and could add a third this weekend in the First Lady at Keeneland. So time is running out for War Like Goddess.

Still, females beating males in this country is a rarity – on either surface. If War Like Goddess can pull this off, she will most certainly tighten this Eclipse race regardless of what Regal Glory does.