Division Rankings: U.S. holds a strong hand in Dubai desert

To say the Group 1 Dubai World Cup came up strong from the U.S. point of view is an understatement. This is the first time that four of the top five ranked older dirt male horses from below have run together in the same race in at least three years (that’s as far as I looked back).

Though Life Is Good will be favored, he is far from a sure thing. Hot Rod Charlie, Country Grammer and Midnight Bourbon will ensure Life Is Good has to work to grab his first win in his first try at 10 furlongs. 

Before I take a brief look ahead to next week's showdown, let's take a look at this week's updated Division Rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Life Is Good. Like Knicks Go last season, this guy followed up a Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile win with a Pegasus World Cup (G1) win. Now the leader of this division, he will get tested in his next start from an experienced and tough foe, the No. 3-ranked Hot Rod Charlie.

2. Express Train. Now 2-for-2 on the season, this guy is in the best form of his career. He finally broke through in a Grade 1, winning the Santa Anita Handicap. A winner of three in a row, he defeated Hot Rod Charlie in late December as well. Will point to the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) in late May for his next start.

3. Hot Rod Charlie. Was superb in his prep in Dubai for the upcoming World Cup to be held over the same racetrack. Started eight times in 2021, five times in a Grade 1, and ran his heart out each time. No matter who shows for the Dubai World Cup, this guy will be tough to beat.

4. Country Grammer. Sensational in the Saudi Cup (G1), his first start in nine months. Will now run in Dubai for the World Cup.

5. Midnight Bourbon Hasn't won in over a year, but he keeps showing up and running well in the biggest events. Briefly looked like a winner in the Saudi Cup stretch, settling for third. He too will run in the Dubai World Cup.

Next 5: Warrant, Mandaloun, Mystic Guide, Stilleto Boy, Americanrevolution.

Older dirt females

1. Letruska. Looked good in her return to the races, a three-length win in the Royal Delta (G3) at Gulfstream. Refreshed and ready for 2022, she will target the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn for her next start.

2. As Times Goes By. On a roll now, a winner of her last three starts, two of which were this season. She added the Beholder Mile (G1) to her resume last week. Deserves this spot based on her record thus far.

3. Ce Ce. Defeated a strong field in the Azeri (G2) last weekend, Pauline's Pearl and Shedaresthedevil were second and third, respectively.

4. Shedaresthedevil. Returned in last week's Azeri and ran okay when finishing third to Ce Ce. Will run in the Aplle Blossom next.

5. Clairiere. Solid in her comeback this week, albeit against in an allowance. Previously she ran a very nice race against a tough field in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, where it briefly looked like she would win. Instead, she settled for a close fourth, 3/4 of a length from the winner.

Next 5: Pauline's Pearl, Malathaat, Bonny South, Search Results, Lady Rocket.

3-year-old males

1. Forbidden Kingdom. The San Felipe (G2) winner was super impressive, so much so that I vaulted him straight to this spot for several reasons, mainly because I think he is better than the others below right now. Ran super fast fractions in the San Felipe and had more than enough in the tank in the stretch. I don't think distance will be a problem moving forward, and he has Richard Mandella as his trainer, who is due for some Kentucky Derby glory.
2. Messier. He ran the fastest race speed-figure-wise, by far, of any 3-year-old. Winning by 15 in the Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita, it will be interesting to see how he runs next out. I'm not a believer just yet, but the No. 2 spot is his for now.
3. Epicenter. Certainly was impressive in the Risen Star Stakes (G2), beating a strong field. Now 3-for-5 on his career.
4. White Abarrio. He too has to be ranked here based on his impressive win in the Holy Bull (G3) over a few ranked below. Now 3-for-4 on his career, connections will wait till the Florida Derby (G1) for his next start.
5. Simplification. Won his first graded stakes in the Fountain of Youth; still not convinced he is a viable Kentucky Derby contender.
Next 9: Smile Happy, Classic Causeway, Corniche, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Morello, Major General, Call Me Midnight, Early Voting.
3-year-old females

1. Secret Oath. A different horse now at age 3 than she was at age 2. She was dominant again in the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn. Connections have discussed taking on males in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Not a good idea, in my opinion – she still has much to prove in her own division. But she has done enough to merit this No. 1 ranking off of what she has done in 2022.
2. Echo Zulu. She was dominant in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, winning by more than five lengths. Completed a 4-for-4 season with three Grade 1 wins, a rarity for 2-year-olds nowadays. Forget the Kentucky Derby talk, we need to see if she returns this season with similar form; remember Vequist from a year ago? Falls to No. 2 because she has not run yet in 2022. Expected in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) next weekend.
3. Adare Manor. Dominant in her last two starts, she won her graded-stakes debut, the Las Virgenes (G3), by 13 lengths. To be fair, she beat only three others in that race, but her future looks bright.

4. Juju's Map. Ran well in the Breeders' Cup but was second best to Echo Zulu. Previously she was the winner of the Alcibiades (G1) as the favorite at Keeneland after breaking her maiden at Ellis Park. Finally had her first work of 2022.
5. Eda. A Grade 1 winner at age two, she started 2022 off on a winning note with her score in the Santa Ysabel (G2) at Santa Anita.
Next 5: Ain't Easy, Tarabi, Under the Stars, Kathleen O., Happy Soul.

Turf males

1. Colonel Liam. Ran huge in defending his Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) and seemed better than ever despite his long layoff. Deserves the top spot for now, mainly because he has run once already this season while some of the others below have not. He will run in the Dubai Turf in his next start.

2. Domestic Spending. Had to scratch out of the Breeders' Cup because of injury. Will be back this season with hopes that he runs more than the three times we saw him in 2021.

3. Smooth Like Strait. It was this guy who ran the best of the U.S.-based grass horses in the two major Breeders' Cup grass races last fall. His runner-up finish in the Breeders' Cup Mile summed up his entire season – tough as nails and always runs his race. Will be back this season.

4. Golden Pal. It has been a long time since I ranked a turf sprinter this high, but he deserves it. He ran only four times in 2021, winning three of them. But his Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was a thing of beauty, dominating from start to finish to post an easy win. Back working, he will run on Kentucky Derby weekend at Churchill Downs.

5. Hit the Road. Ran poorly in the Pegasus in his 2022 debut, but this guy was very good last season, winning a Grade 1 and knocking heads with Smooth Like Strait in a few races. I might have him ranked high here, but I feel like he is in the top tier of this division when right.

Next 5: Count Again, United, Never Surprised, Gufo, Ivar.

Turf females

1. War Like Goddess. Tough-luck loser of the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, she is still tops in this division. A winner of four graded stakes in 2021, including the Flower Bowl (G1) at Belmont Park. The clear leader of this division heading into this season, despite her being robbed of an Eclipse.

2. Going Global. Won six graded stakes last season as a 3-year-old filly. Hasn't left her home state of California since arriving in this country in late 2020 but will have to if she aims to contend for an Eclipse this season.

3. Shantisara. Winner of three stakes in a row – and her last, the Queen Elizabeth (G1) at Keeneland, was a powerhouse performance where she won by five. Trainer Chad Brown might have himself another star.

4. Regal Glory. Ran big in winning in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G3), previously she won the Matriarch (G1), beating Princess Grace. Will run next in the Jenny Wiley (G1) at Keeneland.

5. Princess Grace. Was on a four-race winning streak, all graded stakes. But in her last two, she was third to Going Global in the Goldikova (G2) and third to Regal Glory in the Matriarch (G1) last out. Close for this spot, with Zofelle right behind.

Next 5: Zofelle, Leggs Galore, Going to Vegas, Luck, Technical Analysis.

Male sprinters

1. Jackie's Warrior. The Eclipse winner from last season, this guy ran a full schedule and ran hard every time. Didn't fire his best shot in the Breeders' Cup, but to be fair, the long season and cross-country trip probably had something to do with that. He deserves this spot over all others, including Flightline, for now. Working again, he should make it back to the races in the spring.

2. Flightline. Super impressive in his Malibu (G1) win, defeating Dr. Schivel, among others. Still, he has only one stakes start and doesn't seem capable of running a full schedule, given his three career starts spanning eight months. His connections have stated he will run only four times in 2022 if he stays healthy. With his next start in question, still lots of questions to be answered by this son of Tapit.

3. Dr. Schivel. Disappointed in the Malibu, but given what he did in 2021, he deserves this spot. Will be back soon in Dubai in the Golden Shaheen.

4. Aloha West. The Breeders' Cup Sprint winner closed stoutly in the stretch to win by a nose. Still, the Breeders' Cup was his first graded-stakes win. He has to show me a lot more to move up here.

5. Following Sea. Ran well last out in the Cigar Mile (G1), finishing runner-up to Americanrevolution. Prior to that, the Vosburgh (G2) winner ran very well in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, finishing third.

Next 5: Golden Pal, Cezanne, Special Reserve, Essential Wager, Baby Yoda.

Life is Good, Hot Rod Charlie lead strong U.S. contingent in Dubai

One year ago at this time, Life Is Good was the consensus Kentucky Derby favorite, preparing for the Santa Anita Derby (G1) after having won the San Felipe (G2) in early March. But just two weeks after that San Felipe win, Life Is Good suffered a hind-end injury during a workout and underwent surgery for a small chip in his left hind ankle.

Remarkably, Life Is Good returned five months later, sprinting in the Allen Jerkens (G1), and he gave the eventual Eclipse Award winner in that division, Jackie’s Warrior, all he could handle dropping a neck decision.

Since that comeback race, Life Is Good hasn’t skipped a beat, winning all thee of his starts, the last two coming in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and the Pegasus World Cup (G1). Now ranked No. 1, Life Is Good will try to clear one last hurdle, the 10-furlong kind.

Since early last season the debate was always there: Can Life Is Good show the same brilliance at 10 furlongs as he had shown at the shorter distances? I admit, I have always been skeptical. I warmed to the idea after I saw his Pegasus effort at nine furlongs, but I still feel he is vulnerable a week from Saturday, mainly because of his fellow U.S.-based competition who have been in Dubai for weeks waiting for him.

The horse with the best chance to upset Life Is Good is clearly the No. 3 ranked Hot Rod Charlie. I hesitate to use the term upset, because a Hot Rod Charlie win doesn’t seem like much of an upset – in fact, he will be the pick by many to win. Hot Rod Charlie has been in the mix for the win in mid-stretch in his last 11 starts. He shows up and runs his race every time. He has competed in just about every big-time event for the last 15 months. Purchased initially for $17k, he is somewhat of a throwback and has quickly become a fan favorite.

The other two big U.S. hopes, Country Grammer, ranked No. 4, and Midnight Bourbon, ranked No. 5, are also in with big chances. 

Country Grammer nearly won the Saudi Cup off of a nine-month layoff. He has experience at the 10-furlong distance, having won the Hollywood Gold Cup last year. He figures to improve in his second start off of a layoff as well. If the top two don’t fire their best and he can duplicate his last out effort, this guy can get to the winners circle.

Midnight Bourbon has lost 10 straight races but like Hot Rod Charlie, he always shows up and runs his race. He appeared for a moment to look like the winner in the Saudi Cup stretch but faded to finish third, his sixth Grade 1 placing. I don’t believe 10 furlongs to be his best distance and give him little chance to win, but fully expect him to complete the trifecta or superfecta.

My choice will be Hot Rod Charlie. If ever a horse was, due it is this guy. I love the move by trainer Doug O’Neill sending him to Dubai early, getting him a prep over the track that he easily won, and acclimating him to his surroundings well in advance of the big race. Whatever happens, seeing the top half of the division in action in the same race is quite a treat for racing fans.