Division Rankings: Turf male Eclipse is up for grabs

The North American turf male division has been a conundrum for the better part of three years since the retirement of 2019 turf male champion Bricks and Mortar.

This season, no member of the division has stated a strong case for year-end honors. With the Breeders’ Cup only three weeks away, the Eclipse is ripe for the taking.

Of course, there is a strong possibility a horse based overseas could swoop in and win a Breeders’ Cup race and take the Eclipse.

Longtime readers know my feelings on the latter – the Eclipse should go to a horse who runs on this continent throughout the season, not a horse who runs one time in the U.S. in the second-to-last month of the year.

Before I go over possible Eclipse scenarios for this division, let's take a look at this week's updated Division Rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Flightline. He will be the shortest-priced Breeders' Cup race favorite in history, and if he is anywhere on his game he will win the Breeders' Cup Classic. No horse in training has run a race that could beat this guy in any of his five career starts. Last out, his Pacific Classic (G1) performance was one of the best we have seen in the last several decades. The question on everyone's mind now is how fast he will run at Keeneland and how much will he win by.

2. Life Is Good. Was pushed last time out in his Woodward (G1) win over an extremely weak field. Still, a win is a win and this guy now has padded his resume this season with three Grade 1 wins. He is in the Eclipse race, I guess, but his connections are saying he will run in the 1 1/4-mile Breeders' Cup Classic, a decision that will end his Eclipse hopes. This guy thrives at eight to nine furlongs – not 10 furlongs. His lone try at that distance resulted in a clear struggle in the last 200 yards of the Dubai World Cup. To be blunt, I can't envision him even placing in the Classic, given the pace scenario. The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile gives him the best chance to win.

3. Olympiad. Got back to his winning ways in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and in a normal season he would be in the thick of things for this divisional Eclipse. But it would take one of the biggest upsets we have seen in the last several years – defeating Flightline in the Breeders' Cup Classic – to win this divisional Eclipse.

4. Country Grammer. Ran his race when a distant runner-up to Flightline in the Pacific Classic, finishing clear of the rest. Like everyone else in this division, he is far behind Flightline. A disappointing runner-up last out in the Awesome Again (G1) at Santa Anita, he still could run in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

5. Hot Rod Charlie. Was extremely game in last time out in the Lukas Classic (G2) win, where he again showed up to run. Appreciate a horse like this while he is in training; he shows up and runs every single time and has danced in all the big dances the last couple of seasons. He will go next in the Breeders' Cup Classic, where he would be my choice to finish second.

Next 5: Happy Saver, Art Collector, Defunded, Royal Ship, Americanrevolution.

Older dirt females

1. Malathaat. Tough to separate this gal and Clairiere based on resume, but the win last weekend in the Spinster (G1) pushes Malathaat to the top spot for now. With two Grade 1 wins on the year now, she will head to the Breeders' Cup Distaff for her next start.

2. Clairiere. Voters need to remember that Clairiere has defeated Malathaat in two of their three meetings this season. Last time out she was up the track in the Personal Ensign (G1), where she suffered a cut to her tongue at the start of the race. Back in training, she will be an overlay in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. If she finishes ahead of Malathaat in that race, she will get my vote for this Eclipse.

3. Search Results. Tough-luck runner-up to Malathaat in the Personal Ensign, this gal fires her best every time. Is a major player in this division and could be flying under the radar come Breeders' Cup time.

4. Blue Stripe. This mare from South America has been getting better and better, and don't be surprised to see her continue her winning ways and be a major contender at Breeders' Cup time. Scored a facile win in the recent Clement Hirsch (G1) at Del Mar. Will be a real threat for the upset in the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

5. Letruska. Off the board with no apparent excuses last time out in the Spinster, it is clear her best days are behind her. She likely will be retired soon after an outstanding career that saw her win the Eclipse in this division last season.

Next 5: Shedaresthedevil, Pauline's Pearl, Private Mission, Miss Leslie, Army Wife.

3-year-old males

1. Epicenter. The clear leader of this division, he will win the Eclipse unless Taiba or Rich Strike upset the Breeders' Cup Classic. Last time out he was a facile winner of the Travers (G1) and prior to that he was an impressive winner of the Jim Dandy (G2). Will have the daunting task of facing Flightline in the Breeders's Cup Classic, and he has the best hope of any to beat him. 2. Taiba. In only five career starts. this guy has started in four Grade 1 events. He was outstanding in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), scoring a facile win over others ranked below. Appears to have stepped up his game and is maturing at the right time. Will go next in the Breeders' Cup Classic, and a win there is the only way he can unseat Epicenter. 3. Rich Strike. Had really validated himself in his last two starts. You have to give this guy credit for running a very good race in the Travers (G1) in August, missing the runner-up spot by a nose and a neck. Then last time out he nearly pulled off another huge upset when coming up short to Hot Rod Charlie, losing by a nose in the Lukas Classic (G2). He faced three proven Grade 1-winning older horses and stood tall. No other in this class has faced such a strong field. 4. Cyberknife. Didn't show the same early speed in the Penn Derby as he did in the Travers and as a result was left with too much to do in the stretch. Did manage to finish third, but the Haskell (G1) winner needed a win to have any shot in this Eclipse race. Could run in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. 5. Zandon. Ran his usual race in last weekend's Penn Derby, which resulted in another good on-the-board effort. In four graded stakes since his Blue Grass (G1) win in April, he has finished runner-up twice and third twice. Will not point to the Breeders' Cup Classic and instead will wait for the Cigar Mile (G1) in early December. Next 5: Early Voting, Jack Christopher, Charge It, White Abarrio, Tawny Port.
3-year-old females

1. Nest. With the Eclipse in the bag now after her latest win, a tour de force effort in last week's Beldame (G2), she now will set her sights on the Breeders' Cup Distaff. She likely will be a bit of an underlay in the Distaff and will face by far her toughest field.

2. Secret Oath. Just wasn't good enough last out in the Cotillion (G1), where she finished a flat third, beaten over seven lengths. The Kentucky Oaks winner had too much to do as the winner, Society, took the lead from the start and separated herself from the field on the far turn. Now 3-for-8 on the season, her connections will point her to the Breeders' Cup Distaff.
3. Moira. DQ aside, she was very game in defeat last weekend in the E. P. Taylor Stakes (G1) finishing runner-up against older and losing by only a neck. In her previous start she was the dominant winner of the Queen's Plate over males in Canada.

4. Echo Zulu. Made her return to the races a winning one in the recent Dogwood (G3), where she won by more than five lengths. This was the first time she has run since she was a gate scratch in the Acorn (G1) in June. Still feel that if given another chance at nine furlongs she could beat the best in this division. May run in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.
5. Society. Ran well in the Cotillion last time out, running away with it to score by more than five lengths. The Cotillion was her second graded-stakes win. Before the Cotillion she won the Charles Town Oaks (G3). Need to see more before she moves up.
Next 5: Midnight Memories, Matareya, Interstatedaydream, Under the Stars, Desert Dawn.

Turf males

1. Count Again. Stays here on top here as a placeholder for now, given that he is out for the season. This guy has racked up two Grade 1 wins already this season and is 3-for-4 on the year. His win over Smooth Like Strait in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) was his best effort yet. The only member of this division who has multiple Grade 1 wins on the season thus far. Will drop from this spot soon.

2. Golden Pal. He's run only four times this season and has only two Grade 2 wins and one Grade 3 win, but no other in division has stepped up, so gets this spot. If he repeats in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, he will get votes for this Eclipse.

3. Nations Pride. This 3-year-old has been super impressive in his races in the U.S., nearly sweeping the Turf Triple Series of races in New York. His last time out in the Jockey Club Derby (G3) was his best effort yet, winning by more than six lengths. His connections have stated that the Breeders' Cup Turf will be next.

4. Modern Games. Very impressive last time out in the Woodbine Mile (G1), beating a somewhat suspect field. He has a record of two wins from five starts this season. Unlike others, I am not convinced he is the best in this division here in North America.

5. Gufo. Just when he was ready to take over the No. 1 spot here, he finished dead last in the recent Joe Hirsch (G1), a perplexing performance. The Sword Dancer (G1) winner is 2-for-7 this season with two other Grade 1 placings. 

Next 5: Annapolis, Ivar, Red Knight, Smooth Like Strait, Santin.

Turf females

1. Regal Glory. This is a tough call. I kept this gal on top on the basis of her complete resume thus far this season. He runner-up finish last weekend coupled with the win by War Like Goddess certainly muddled this division. But her First Lady (G1) loss to In Italian was her first loss against females this season. She is 3-for-5 this season, with two of those wins in Grade 1 races. Before the First Lady, she was runner-up in the Fourstardave (G1) against males.

2. War Like Goddess. She finally was given the chance against males and came through winning by daylight in the Joe Hirsch (G1) last time out. Now 3-for-4 on the season, she is back in this Eclipse race and will get another chance against the boys next out in the Breeders' Cup Turf. A win there would cinch the Eclipse regardless of what Regal Glory or In Italian do with their next starts.

3. In Italian. Certainly has a case to be ranked No. 1, but not here. Scored her second Grade 1 win in a row in last week's First Lady and is now 4-for-6 on the season. She is in the thick of this Eclipse race for sure but doesn't control her own destiny in that regard.

4. Going Global. Upset last time out when finishing runner-up in the John C. Mabee (G2) at Del Mar. Before that she scored a facile three-length win in the Yellow Ribbon (G2) at Del Mar. Earlier this season she scored in the Royal Heroine (G2) at Santa Anita. The best female turfer on the West Coast, she will run next in the Goldikova Stakes (G2) later this month.

5. Bleecker Street. Suffered the first loss of her career last time out in the Diana (G1) after starting her career 7-for-7. She put in her run from the back but had too much to do when finishing third. I won't drop her off because of that one loss, but now she is on the shelf with an injury. Will drop in the coming weeks.

Next 5: Dalika, Going to Vegas, Technical Analysis, Avenue de France, Princess Grace.

Male sprinters

1. Jackie's Warrior. Make no mistake, he is the horse to beat in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Forget his upset loss last time out in the Forego (G1) at Saratoga when runner-up to Cody's Wish, he has been a machine this season. He has a stranglehold on this Eclipse and will get my vote win, lose or draw in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, likely his final career start.

2. Jack Christopher. Back sprinting, he was dominant in the Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) at seven furlongs over the Saratoga oval. No matter which Breeders' Cup race his connections choose, the Dirt Mile or Sprint, he will be a major player.

3. American Theorem. Was runner-up in the Pat O'Brien (G2) after winning the last two graded sprint stakes out west. Still, he figures to be the West Coast's best hope come Breeders' Cup Sprint time.

4. Cody's Wish. Upset winner of the Forego (G1), this guy appears to be the real deal. The Forego was his sixth win from 10 starts but only his second graded-stakes win. Will need to see him do it again before he moves up. Will point to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile instead of the Sprint for his next start

5. Golden Pal. Winner of the Woodford Stakes (G2) last time out, he will look for a repeat win in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.

Next 5: Laurel River, Gunite, Aloha West, Howbeit, Brickyard Ride.

Female sprinters

1. Obligatory. Finished third to Goodnight Olive last out in the Ballerina (G1), but I still believe she will be the one to beat come Breeders' Cup day. Earlier this season she beat the best in this division except for Ce Ce in the Derby City Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs with a strong closing kick. Several could be ranked here, but she resides here for now.

2. Goodnight Olive. Unbeaten in three starts this season, and last time out she scored her first graded-stakes win in the Ballerina, defeating several ranked here. Like Cody's Wish on the male side, I will need to see her do it again before she moves up.

3. Kimari. Another strong dirt sprint win, this time in the recent Gallant Bloom (G2) at Aqueduct. She is much better on the dirt, in my opinion, and now will point to the Breeders' Cup Sprint against the males. I like the move because she is better at this six-furlong distance than the seven furlongs of the Filly & Mare Sprint. She certainly deserves the shot, but her trainer, Wesley Ward, was a bit overzealous in stating that "I think she’s running every bit as good as the favorite (Jackie’s Warrior) in the Sprint.” I disagree. She has two Grade 2 wins on the season and one Grade 1 win overall in her career. Don't disrespect the leader of this division, who has proven it on the track many times in the last two seasons.

4. Ce Ce. Rebounded from her off-the-board Ballerina loss last time out with a facile win in the Chillingworth (G3) at Santa Anita last time out. I don't believe last season's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner is quite the same though now, and she will be an underlay in her defense of the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint title.

5. Just One Time. The beaten favorite in the Derby City, she finished third with no excuses. Previously this season she won the Madison (G1) at Keeneland and the Inside Information (G2) at Gulfstream.

Next 5: Edgeway, Bell's the One, Slammed, Caramel Swirl, Becca Taylor.

2-year-old males

1. Cave Rock. Unbeaten in all three of his career starts by a combined 17-plus lengths, he will be the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Last time out he won by over five in the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita. This son of Arrogate looks like the real deal. 2. Forte. Two Grade 1 wins in a row, he has captured the Hopeful at Saratoga and then shipped to Keeneland and won the Breeders' Futurity (G1). 3. National Treasure. Runner-up to Cave Rock last time out after a wire-to-wire maiden win. he has run fast in both starts. 4. Blazing Sevens. Finished third in the Hopeful at Saratoga and then won the recent Champagne (G1) over a sloppy track. Will need to see him run that well on a fast track before he moves up more. 5. Curly Jack. Has run four times already and won the Iroquois (G3) in September at Churchill Downs. In his other graded-stakes try, he finished fifth in the Sanford (G3) at Saratoga.
Next 5: Loggins, Havnameltdown, Gulfport, Speedboat Beach, Verifying.

2-year-old females

1. Leave No Trace. Not going to hold that third-place finish in the slop against her last time out in the Frizette (G1). Before that she won the Spinaway (G1) and a maiden. Will be an overlay in the Breeders' Cup. 2. And Tell Me Nolies. The Chandelier (G2) and Del Mar Debutante (G1) winner has won three straight. 3. Chocolate Gelato. Won the Frizette over that sloppy track after breaking her maiden in a fast time. 4. Wonder Wheel. Was runner-up to Leave No Trace in the Spinaway and then came back and won the the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland. 5. Chop Chop. Runner-up to Wonder Wheel in that Alcibiades after winning her first two starts.
Next 5: You're My Girl, Vegas Magic, Shoplifter, Uncontrollable, Raging Sea.

A division in disarray

Let's be honest, if a U.S.-based horse went overseas and won a relevant race in Japan or Europe would it be voted a Cartier Award (Europe’s equivalent of the Eclipse Awards) or JRA Award (Japans equivalent of the Eclipse)? Of course not.

Unfortunately in this country, Eclipse voters become enamored with Breeders’ Cup winners, specifically Breeders’ Cup winners in the turf divisions, regularly voting for these horses who have run a grand total of one time in this country.

Last season we saw this first hand when Japan’s Loves Only You was voted the Eclipse winner in the turf female division over War Like Goddess. This season we very likely could see the turf male Eclipse go to a horse who hasn’t run in this continent yet in 2022.

Much of the reason I could see the Eclipse go vote this way this season is because the turf male division right now is in disarray. When was the last time this division, or any division for that matter, was this wide-open?

So which horses based in the U.S. have a realistic shot at the Eclipse?

The current No. 1, Count Again, hasn’t run in several months but is the only member of this division who has multiple Grade 1 wins. But he is done racing for the year, and it is unlikely he will garner enough support.

My money is on Golden Pal, ranked No. 2. There are very few Grade 1 opportunities for turf sprinters in this country, so I can’t hold the lack of Grade 1 wins against him. Golden Pal will get a chance to defend his Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint title and if he gets the job done, I think voters will reward him with the Eclipse. It would be his fourth graded-stakes win of the season, and some felt he should have won the Eclipse last year. It is not unprecedented for a turf sprinter to win the Eclipse; Stormy Liberal won it in 2018.

The 3-year-old Nations Pride is Europe-based, but he has run here three times this season, winning two-thirds of the Turf Triple Series in New York. If he wins the Breeders’ Cup Turf, he should strongly be considered.

Beyond these three, there are several others who could swoop in and sway voters.

Modern Games, who is ranked No. 4, is the recent Woodbine Mile winner and could garner support if he wins the Breeders’ Cup Mile. The same with Annapolis (ranked No. 6) who just won the Keeneland Turf Mile (G1). Gufo saw his Eclipse chances evaporate last weekend with his last-place finish in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1).

Beyond these horses, I don't really see any other based in the U.S. with hope. Hopefully at the conclusion of the Breeders' Cup, this division will come a bit more into focus.