Division rankings: How does this Breeders' Cup Classic stack up?

Much has been written about this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, and as I was finishing this piece, word broke that Sovereignty’s status was in doubt. Do I call an audible and rewrite an entire column built around a deep dive into Classic history and where this year’s edition fits in the grand scheme? No chance, too much research went into this.

With Sovereignty now officially scratched, the exercise below remains just as revealing. Even without him, this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic stands as an extraordinary edition by any historical measure.

Breeders' Cup Classic fair odds: Sovereignty scratch changes outlook

I’ll also share my full Classic thoughts below, but here’s a teaser. I genuinely believe there’s a real chance not a single 3-year-old male hits the board, and I wrote that before Sovereignty scratched.

When the dust settles, where does this Classic stack up compared to the others? How you frame that depends on your lens, but for this exercise I’m leaning on résumés, not raw speed figures, because stacking this bunch against the great Classics of the past on numbers alone would be a massacre. Even the best of this group would go off at double-digit odds in many of those fields.

I’ll get to the numbers in a moment, but first, here’s how each division stacks up heading into this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup.

3-year-old males

1. Sovereignty. He steamrolled an overmatched field in the Grade 1 Travers, and his résumé has swelled with each start, placing him among the most decorated Kentucky Derby winners since American Pharoah. Even though he'll miss the Classic, he's the leading contender for horse of the year.

2. Journalism. He entered the Pacific Classic (G1) desperate for a win to keep his Eclipse hopes alive but never got close to Fierceness and wound up a distant second. Even so, his season remains solid, though he seems to have leveled off. The Breeders’ Cup Classic this weekend is next.

3. Baeza. As expected, he proved much the best in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), underscoring just how steep the drop-off is in this division after the top three. He still has every right to move forward again in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

4. Nevada Beach. Became the first member of this crop to defeat older males in a Grade 1 route race as he scored an impressive win in the Goodwood (G1), defeating last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Full Serrano, among others. Will run next in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where the waters will be much deeper.

5. Magnitude. He rebounded from a poor Travers with a strong, come-from-behind effort to finish second to Baeza in the Pennsylvania Derby. What stood out to me was how he did it, closing from several lengths back. 

Next 5: Goal Oriented, Gosger, Burnham Square, Bracket Buster, Rated By Merit.

Older dirt males

1. Mindframe. He was fortunate to come out of a chaotic Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) unscathed and keeps his place at the top for now, but the focus turns to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. As much respect as he commands, it’s hard to picture him winning the Classic off a four-month layoff. Tenuous hold on the top spot.

2. Sierra Leone. In the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Sierra Leone delivered a huge effort after veering hard to dodge the fallen rider of Mindframe. Flavien Prat nearly pulled him up, but once the colt seemed sound around the first turn, he pressed on, even from 18 lengths back. Despite losing several lengths because of the trouble, Sierra Leone closed for second, beaten by just over a length. He’s still one of only three runners with a real shot at dethroning Sovereignty in the Classic and matching Tiznow as the lone two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner.

3. Fierceness. He showed plenty in his Pacific Classic win, overcoming a near-disastrous start before seizing command in mid-race and never looking back. Clearly at home at Del Mar, if he brings his A game to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he’ll be tough to reel in. 

4. Nysos. His scratch from the Pacific Classic ended any realistic Eclipse hopes in this division. His team trained him straight up to the Breeders’ Cup after missing the Goodwood (G1). Next up is the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

5. Antiquarian. He came out on top in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and has built a solid season, adding placings in the Suburban (G2) and Blame (G3). I’m not convinced he’s truly of this caliber, but like the 3-year-old ranks, this group is top-heavy with a sizable gap between the top tier and the rest. Will be a big long shot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Next five: Highland Falls, White Abarrio, Locked, Phileas Fogg, Mystik Dan.

Every season comes with the same song: “best horse since,” “best race since.” Spare me. It’s lazy, it’s overdone, and pure horse racing. 

When I see a claim that this 2025 Classic stacks up with 1998 as one of the best, it all depends on what the definition of best is. After digging into the data myself, résumé-wise, this field does indeed belong in upper tier. But better resumes don’t mean better horses. Before anyone starts rewriting history, consider this. Even the 1997 Classic, which ranks in the bottom two Classics, featured horses far better than most in this year’s lineup.

Deputy Commander was widely regarded as just the fourth or fifth best 3-year-old male in 1997, yet heading into that Breeders’ Cup Classic, his last three Beyer Speed Figures surpassed all but one number posted by this year’s entire 3-year-old crop around two turns. Meanwhile, the older Skip Away, who’d won just a single Grade 1 that season going into that Classic, averaged a monstrous 117 Beyer across nine grade-stakes starts in 1997, including figures of 122 and 125. These are just two random examples.

The 1998 field was a statistical monster. Collectively, its runners posted an incredible 26 Beyer figures over 110, all in that single season.

For my deep dive, I focused on five key metrics, the number of Grade 1 winners from that season entered, total Grade 1 wins that year from horses entered, overall Grade 1 wins from the entire field across career, and the number of multiple Grade 1 winners from the season who entered. In other words, résumés.

The highest number of individual Grade 1 winners from a single season came in 1990 and 1992, with 11 horses entered each year. The fewest? Just four, in 1986 and 2020.

Most Grade 1 wins that came in the season they ran in the Classic? 1992 is the clear winner there with 21 Grade 1 races won that season by the 14 entries. Surprisingly, the 2018 Classic is tied for third with that 14-horse field winning 18 Grade 1 events that season. Which edition had the least? Look no further than the 2023 edition with just five Grade 1 wins combined from that field of 12. The 1997 edition had seven.

What about horses with multiple Grade 1 wins in the same season as their Classic run? No surprise, 1992 tops that list too, with seven entered. The fewest? 2023, which didn’t feature a single one.

As for total Grade 1 wins across the entire field for their career when entering, 1992 once again leads the pack with a staggering 30, matched only by 1998. At the other end, 2023 trails with just nine, followed closely by 1997 with 10.

The 1998 field is often hailed as the greatest ever assembled for the Classic, but the reality is more complicated. Several headliners, Skip Away, Gentlemen and Touch Gold, already had lost a step by then. A closer look at the data tells the story. The ’98 field ranks only 12th in Grade 1 wins for that season and 19th in the number of individual Grade 1 winners from that same year.

I’d argue the 1988 edition, not 1998, deserves the title of best Classic field. It featured more Grade 1 winners from that season, 7-6, more total Grade 1 wins from that season, 15-12, and more multiple Grade 1 winners from that season, 4-3, all with a smaller field of nine, compared to 10 in 1998. That 1988 field won a combined 24 Grade 1 events heading into that Classic.

The 1992 edition is the sleeper among all Classics, quietly at or near the top of every metric I analyzed. It featured a record 11 entrants who won a Grade 1 that year, the most ever. It also led all Classics in combined Grade 1 wins from the season (21) and in multiple Grade 1 winners entered (seven). And, as noted earlier, it’s tied with 1998 for the most overall career Grade 1 wins from the field (30) at the time of entry. 1992 already was on my short list of greatest Classic fields before this deep dive, but it was even better than I realized.

Ranking this 2025 field is tricky. By modern standards, it’s an outstanding group, deep, talented and deserving of respect. But stacking it against the Classic fields of old is a losing game. Even the best of this bunch would be long shots in many of those editions based on the numbers alone.

But on résumé alone, this 2025 Classic stacks up better than most. It sits fifth in individual Grade 1 winners from the season at eight, even without Sovereignty. So this Classic field, résumé-wise, is certainly among the best we have seen. Of the 14 Classic fields of 10 or less, only the ’88, ’89 and ’98 fields were better.

So, even without Sovereignty this race has much to offer and is quite rare in today’s era of early retirement.

Of course, how you judge past Classic fields depends on which metrics you value most, speed figures, depth, résumé strength or sheer star power. The numbers tell one story, but you can decide for yourself which era truly stands tallest. There’s more than one way to measure greatness, and that’s half the fun of the debate.

As for the race itself, I remain firmly bullish on the older males. Last week’s Fayette (G3) was yet another reminder, another 3-year-old taken down by an older rival. Hit Show isn’t even in the same league as the top four older males, Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Fierceness and Mindframe, yet he handled Gosger and Bracket Buster without issue. Journalism has already been soundly beaten by Fierceness. None of it bodes well for the 3-year-olds come Saturday.

It’s hard to picture a scenario where Forever Young and Sierra Leone don’t run their race. The wild card is Fierceness. If he shows up and runs his A race, he’ll be a handful. As for which 3-year-old breaks through, I’m skeptical. I'm Journalism fan, but I think we’ve seen his ceiling. Baeza has upside and likely will be one of the few big names from this group still racing next year. But he is being overvalued here, and he’s yet to prove he can beat Journalism. Even before Sovereignty scratched, he reminded me a bit of Bernardini and  I was willing to pass on him as well.

So I’m going out on a limb and taking a different angle on this year’s Classic. Respect your elders.

Older dirt females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Not surprisingly to regular readers of these rankings, she finished off the board in the Spinster (G1). Simply put, she didn't move forward from last season and never was head and shoulders above the fillies ranked below her. Still, she deserves credit for gutting out wins, even if the competition was subpar. She was retired formally last week, but regardless of what happens in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, she’ll have my vote for the Eclipse in this division because she showed up. She ran all season and won races while others sat out for months or never ventured beyond their home state. In these rankings the entire season matters.

2. Cavalieri. Out the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, Cavalieri had an effort in the Zenyatta (G2) that was impressive, especially given the disastrous break and a six-month layoff. She holds her spot here because if the season ended today, she’d still be on my ballot. 

3. Seismic Beauty. Scored a nice win last out in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1) going gate to wire. Clearly the fastest horse in the division on paper in 2025, she will be a tough one to beat if she can stay healthy this fall. She is will be favored in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

4. Dorth Vader. She just missed another Grade 1 in the Personal Ensign, beaten on the bob by Thorpedo Anna, a margin that easily could costly in the Eclipse race. Her only other win this season came in June’s Ogden Phipps (G1) at Saratoga. Is a Breeders' Cup Distaff contender.

5. Gin Gin. First in the Spinster (G1) last out, her only other win this season also came at Keeneland in April in the Doubledogdare (G3). Will try for her second top-level win in a row in the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

Next five: Richi, Leslie’s Rose, Gun Song, Royal Spa, Raging Sea.

3-year-old fillies

1. Nitrogen. She didn’t run poorly in the Spinster (G1), finishing second to Gin Gin, but let’s be honest. The bar in this division is set pretty low. She still holds the top spot for now, but she’s no lock for the Eclipse, especially when a placing in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff is a tall order.

2. Clicquot. A surprise winner of the Cotillion (G1), she has strung together four straight wins, including the Indiana Oaks (G3), leading into her latest score. She is entered in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

3. Good Cheer. Clearly not the same filly who won the Kentucky Oaks (G1), she was off the board in the Cotillion (G1), beaten by more than six lengths. Her races earlier this year matter, so she stays in the top five here.

4. La Cara. Tied for the most top-level scores in this division, the problem is she has been off the board in three other Grade 1 races, including her last two.

5. Laurelin. Ran OK in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) where she was runner-up. The Saratoga Oaks (G2) winner’s stock did take a hit with her first career loss.

Next five: Scottish Lassie, Quietside, Margie’s Intention, Ragtime, Lush Lips.

Turf males

1. Rebel’s Romance. With apologies to Deterministic and the rest, how could Rebel’s Romance not be atop the division? His dominant victory in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) left several ranked below in his wake. This globetrotting gelding turns his focus to the Breeders’ Cup Turf, where the stakes could not be higher. A win would give him a record third Breeders’ Cup Turf and a second Eclipse Award. He arguably will be the biggest equine star on Breeders’ Cup weekend and is the horse to beat in the Turf.

2. Deterministic. He has strung together three straight graded-stakes victories, including back-to-back Grade 1s. Most recently, he dominated the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga after capturing the shortened, 1 1/8-mile Manhattan (G1) the day after the Belmont Stakes. Now 3-for-4 this year, he clearly is trending the right way. He hasn’t worked since his last win on Aug. 2 and likely will drop from this spot in the coming weeks.

3. Formidable Man. After bagging the Eddie Read (G2) and Del Mar Mile (G2), adding to his Kilroe Mile (G1) tally, he has racked up three graded wins this year. The question is whether he’s been facing top-level rivals or soft California fields. Entered in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

4. El Cordobes. The Sword Dancer (G1) winner ran his race when third behind Rebel’s Romance in the Joe Hirsch. He was entered in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

5. Notable Speech. Impressive win in the Woodbine Mile (G1), which was his first win in five starts this season. Was third in last years Breeders’ Cup Mile, and could be favored in that same race this weekend.

Next five: Johannes, Far Bridge, Redistricting, Fort Washington, Integration.

Turf females

1. She Feels Pretty. She gutted out a game win in the E. P. Taylor (G1) to hold her spot on top here. It was her second Grade 1 of the season and, remarkably, her fifth overall in just 12 starts, the fastest to five since Rushing Fall matched the feat five years ago. Will vie for favoritism in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf this weekend.

2. Excellent Truth. After three near-misses, she finally scored her first Grade 1 in the Diana. As sharp as that was, it’s still not enough to leapfrog She Feels Pretty, who’d be my Eclipse choice if the vote were today. Though retired after a training injury, she holds her spot at No. 2 for now and stays on my Eclipse ballot.

3. Special Wan. She scored in the Ladies Turf (G3) last out at Kentucky Downs, only her third start of the season. She’s had a solid year overall, finishing third behind Dynamic Pricing in the Just a Game (G1) and winning the Honey Fox (G3). Entered in the Goldikova (G3) at Del Mar this weekend

4. Bellezza. She won the Flower Bowl (G2) last out and the Sheepshead Bay (G3) early this season. In between she placed in the New York (G1) behind She Feels Pretty and in the Glens Falls (G2). She too will run in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

5. Dynamic Pricing. She was off the board in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland, but her résumé still holds up for a top-five ranking. She ran third in the Diana, well behind the division’s top two. This summer she broke through with her first Grade 1 in the Just a Game and then backed it up with a win in the Perfect Sting at Saratoga.

Next five: Simply in Front, Ag Bullet, Laurelin, Lush Lips, Segesta.

Male sprinters

1. Book’em Danno. His Forego (G1) win further solidified his stranglehold on the sprint division marking three straight big wins. Even without a Breeders’ Cup Sprint appearance, Eclipse voters will find him hard to ignore. He gets my vote regardless of what takes place at Del Mar.

2. Patch Adams. After failing to stretch out, this 3-year-old found his wheelhouse in sprints, rattling off back-to-back Grade 1s against fellow 3-year-old males capped by the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) at Saratoga. Retired because of injury, he stays here for now as he would be on my Eclipse ballot if the season ended today.

3. Bentornato. After nearly a year on the shelf, last season’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up came back firing, dominating the Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes. He is the horse to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

4. Dr. Venkman. This gelding ran big last out in winning the Pat O’Brien (G2) and stamped himself as a Breeders’ Cup Sprint contender. Remember, he was second to Nysos in the Triple Bend (G3).

5. Imagination. I don’t know what to think about his win in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2). Coming off an eight-month break, he cruised home effortlessly, defeating Dr. Venkman and Straight No Chaser in impressive style. Straight No Chaser might have needed the race after a long layoff, but so did Imagination. It stands out as one of the most impressive graded-sprint performances we’ve seen this year. But how will he respond when things get tougher in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint?

Next five: Straight No Chaser, Nysos, Nakatomi, Mullikin, Barnes.

Female sprinters

1. Kopion. She comes off a solid runner-up finish in the Clement Hirsch at 8 1/2 furlongs, but even her earlier setback to Sweet Azteca in the Great Lady M (G2) hasn’t knocked her from the top spot. Before that she stamped her class in the Derby City Distaff (G1), blowing past her 8-1 morning line with authority. She runs against the boys in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. She is in with a very good shot there, and it is refreshing to see her connections go with this option.

2. Sweet Azteca. Scored her second win this season last out in the Rancho Bernardo (G3). This was after her remarkable comeback win in the Great Lady M, where she defeated Kopion. That came nine months after her last race, a stunning off-the-board finish at 1-9 odds in the four-horse Chillingworth (G3) at Santa Anita. A major player in this division when she is right. Likely will be favored in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

3. Hope Road. This West Coast-based star dominated the Ballerina at Saratoga, earning her first Grade 1 victory. The win also flattered Kopion, whom she had been chasing earlier in the year. Now she looks like a major player for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

4. Ways and Means. Absolutely dominated the Bed o’ Roses (G2), drawing off by more than seven lengths and staking her claim as likely the top female sprinter on the East Coast. Before that she was a solid third in the Derby City Distaff (G1) behind top-ranked Kopion. She was put on the shelf for the remainder of the season with her return next year still in question.

5. Positano Sunset. Scored a nice win last out in the Open Mind Stakes at Churchill, and her only loss this year in four starts was in the Derby City Distaff in May. She won the Madison (G1) in April at Keeneland.

Next five: Praying, Haulin Ice, Richi, Ragtime, Tamara.

2-year-old males

1. Ted Noffey. Didn’t skip a beat shipping to Keeneland for the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), winning going away. He looks like the real deal, and honestly I’m not sure he doesn’t already have the Eclipse wrapped up, win or lose on Breeders’ Cup day. It would take an extraordinary effort by another colt to win the Juvenile and already own a major victory to knock him from the top spot in these rankings.

2. Brant. The hype horse in the division, but I am not convinced. He was 1-9 in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) but had to work hard to score a one-length win over Desert Gate. As he goes longer I expect he will find things even tougher. Up next in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

3. Intrepido. Ran well when upsetting the American Pharoah (G1) for his first stakes win. He is 2-for-3 and will have home-field advantage in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, having broken his maiden over the Del Mar surface.

4. Desert Gate. A bit disappointing in the American Pharoah when finishing second, beaten by less than a length. Before that the Best Pal (G3) winner ran a strong race in the Del Mar Futurity, closing late on Brant to finish just a length behind.

5. Blackout Time. Ran well at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Futurity to be runner-up to Ted Noffey. I get the feeling he might be better than most we have seen thus far despite no stakes wins. Is entered in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Next 5: Ewing, Napoleon Solo, It’s Our Time, Comport, Buetane.

2-year-old fillies

1. Tommy Jo. Was handed the win via a DQ in the Alcibiades (G1) when it was clear to everyone she would be runner-up. She remains on top of the division for now but seems shaky heading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

2. Explora. Dominated the Oak Leaf (G2) and could end up favored in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Previously she finished second in the Del Mar Debutante (G1).

3. Bottle of Rouge. The Del Mar Debutante winner drove clear late for the win. She is 2-for-3 in her career and Was flattered when Explora won the Oak Leaf (G2). Will also run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

4. Percy’s Bar. Was clearly the best horse in the Alcibiades, crossing the wire first before being disqualified for interference in the stretch. That effort followed a runner-up finish in the Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga. The arrow definitely is pointing up for this filly. Entered in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

5. Taken by the Wind. The Pocahontas (G2) winner is 2-for-2 to kick off her career.

Next 5:  Iron Orchard, La Wally, Rileytole, Ground Support, Lennilu.