Division Rankings: Why so much dual Arkansas Derby disparity?

Many racing fans celebrated the decision to split Saturday's Arkansas Derby (G1) in two divisions. And as much as I tried to get excited about the idea, I could not.

For starters, this is a Grade 1 race. It is supposed to be difficult to win at the level. If you have a horse that can't make the cut in a 14-horse field, that's life.

Having said that, I understand the current COVID-19 situation. Several races have been postponed or canceled, and the Arkansas Derby attracted a big crowd because of it.

If we had 28 or more horses wanting to run, with the majority seemingly deserving of a start in a Grade 1, I would be all for it in this special case. But that has not happened here.

As of this writing, the fields are down to 10 horses apiece. That's now closer to a full field of 14 than two full fields totaling 28 contenders.

The decision to split also strikes me as one that was made to allow the much-hyped Charlatan to run this weekend. He's the big name that wouldn't have qualified were the race run under normal conditions.

As unpopular as that opinion may be, I stand by it. If Charlatan was not pointed to Arkansas I do not believe the race would have been split.  

Part of the collateral damage is a huge disparity in quality between the two races.

Division 1 features Charlatan, the 2-for-2 Bob Baffert trainee shipping in from the west coast. He no doubt will be the favorite off spectacular wins at the maiden and allowance levels. He notched triple-digit speed figures but also only defeated seven rivals total.

Much of the reason he will be an overwhelming favorite is due to the competition. Outside of Basin and Anneau d'Or, who both showed good form at age 2, the rest show a combined 10 wins in 41 starts. Half of Division 1's horses have only maiden wins to their credit. There are zero stakes wins for this entire field in 2020 and only two stakes placings collectively in 2020.

Contrast that with the second division where five graded winners are entered: Nadal, Storm the Court, Wells Bayou, King Guillermo and Silver Prospector. Each of Nadal, Wells Bayou and King Guillermo all won last time in major Derby preps.

The question has to be asked: Why is it that none of these top horses were in the first division? Even accounting for the separation of owners and trainers with multiple entries, there had to be a way to more evenly divvy up the entries.

Nadal will go favored in Division 2, and whichever horse comes out on top will deserve Grade 1 status. I wish I could write the same thing about the first flight.

A Grade 1 race is supposed to mean something, and it seems to me that whatever criteria was used to form these fields was flawed. As the first Grade 1 event of the season for 3-year-olds, it will also be weighted as such on these lists moving forward into an uncertain summer.

With that, a look at this week's Division Rankings...

Older Dirt Males

1.  Maximum Security - Unless he fails some sort of post-race blood test, he deserves this No. 1 spot. To be fair, whatever tests they do run, I would hope they perform on all samples from Saudi Cup contenders as prize money is withheld. Racing could stand to see this guy come back and to come back a winner.

2.  Mucho Gusto – Much improved from last season, his Saudi Cup trip was eventful. He likely would have finished third instead of fourth had his jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., not been so concerned with Maximum Security for the entirety of the race. With COVID-19 leading to cancellation of the Dubai World Cup (G1), his plans were dashed

3.  Tom's d'Etat – A winner of his last three, he is in the best form of his career now at age 7. His Oaklawn Mile Stakes win over Improbable and nine others was deceptively good. The decision to skip the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) has to be questioned, given the fact that with few tracks running there are limited stakes to choose from.

4.  Tacitus – Ran well in his first start of 2020, finishing a close fifth in the Saudi Cup. He also was affected by the cancellation of the Dubai World Cup, but a tip of the cap to his connections for rerouting to this weekend's Oaklawn Handicap.

5.  Mr. Freeze – Powerful win last out in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2). Prior to that effort he was runner-up in Mucho Gusto's Pegasus World Cup (G1) win. Now he stretches back out against a good field in the Oaklawn Handicap.

Next 5: Code of Honor, Gift Box, By My Standards, Improbable, Midcourt.

Older Dirt Females

1.  Midnight Bisou – Runner-up in the Saudi Cup, she will target a summer return with the Breeders' Cup Distaff as her year-end goal and career finale. In the meantime, could she be elevated to a victory in the Saudi Cup? Stay tuned.

2.  Ce Ce – With two Grade 1 wins already in 2020, most recently in the Apple Blossom (G1), she is moving quickly now to challenge for the top spot. She is a serious Eclipse player in this division.

3.  Ollie's Candy - Ran a top race race in the Apple Blossom, as she did all the work on the front end while setting some quick fractions. She has finished behind Ce Ce in both of her starts this year, the other being the Beholder Mile (G1) at Santa Anita.

4.  Dunbar Road - The Alabama (G1) and Mother Goose (G2) winner of 2019 is back on the work tab and looking for somewhere to run.

5.  Point of Honor - Closed from 14th, where she was more than 23 lengths back, to run third in the Apple Blossom after getting squeezed back at the break. She has run well in both of her starts this season.

Next 5: Serengeti Empress, Guarana, Street Band, Go Google Yourself,  Pink Sands.

3-Year-Old-Males

1.  Tiz the Law – He would be the Kentucky Derby favorite in a normal year, but this year is far from normal. I'm also curious about the decision by his connections to skip the Arkansas Derby. He may not have another spot to run in for months because of the COVID-19 situation.

2.  Authentic – Unbeaten in three career starts, he was sensational last out in the San Felipe (G2), defeating a strong field that included the runner-up, Honor A. P., who was making his season debut. With the Santa Anita Derby (G1) postponed, he is just now back on the work tab.

3.  Nadal – Was ranked this high in previous weeks because I felt he was the real deal, and he proved that last out in the Rebel (G2). Now 3-for-3, he likely will be the favorite in his division of the Arkansas Derby.

4.  Sole Volante – The Sam F. Davis (G3) winner ran his race in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) but was left with too much to do when finishing runner-up to the longshot winner, King Guillermo. He'll await somewhere to run beyond the Arkansas Derby.

5.  Ete Indien – Ran into a buzzsaw in Tiz the Law in the Florida Derby but still managed to finish third, beaten five lengths. His connections will bypass the Arkansas Derby to point to a Haskell Invitational (G1) in July that is, frankly, no guarantee to even be run in 2020.

Next 5: Honor A.P, Wells Bayou, Independence Hall, Storm the Court, King Guillermo.

3-Year-Old-Females

1.  Donna Veloce – Big things were expected this year from the daughter of Uncle Mo, and she certainly delivered in her first start of 2020, winning the Santa Ysabel (G3). She is back on the sidelines now, however, due to a physical setback.

2.  British Idiom – Sure, it was her first start since last fall, but she never threatened Finite in Fair Grounds' Rachel Alexandra (G2), and that one went on to lose her next start. Was supposed to make Keeneland's Ashland Stakes (G1) her final Oaks prep. Now, Oaklawn's Fantasy (G3) is next this Friday.

3.  Venetian Harbor – Won the Las Virgenes (G2) by more than nine lengths in her stakes debut and could be something special. She will go next in the Fantasy Stakes as well, making the ship from Santa Anita Park.

4.  Finite – Disappointed as the odds-on favorite in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) when she was off the board, finishing fourth. This snapped a five-race winning streak. Previously ranked No. 1, she took a big drop.

5.  Bonny South – The impressive winner of the Fair Grounds Oaks is now 3-for-4 in her career and taking it easy with no plans to try the Fantasy. Stabled at Keeneland, she's back on the work tab.

Next 5: Tonalist's Shape, Wicked Whisper, Kimari, Frank's Rockette, Swiss Skydiver.

Turf Males

1.  Zulu Alpha - The Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) and Mac Diarmida Stakes (G2) winner tasted his first defeat of the season in the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream when runner-up to Bemma's Boy. Still on top of this division for now, but I expect several others to contend for this Eclipse.

2.  Annals of Time - The Sword Dancer (G1) winner last year, he could be the one to beat in this division for 2019 Horse of the Year Bricks and Mortar's connections if he stays healthy. Back on the work tab at Palm Meadows, but it may be tough to find a comeback race.

3.  United - Almost pulled off a shocking upset in the Breeders' Cup Turf, losing to Bricks and Mortar by a head. Then won the San Marcos (G2) to get his 2020 season underway. With Dubai canceled, his next start may not happen for a while.

4.  River Boyne – It was time to move him up with no others standing out. He has put together two graded wins in a row, his last being the Kilroe Mile (G1).

5.  Arklow - Winner of the Joe Hirsch (G1) last fall at Belmont, he has appeared once this season, when he finished fifth to winner Zulu Alpha in the Pegasus World Cup Turf.

Next 5: Bowies Hero, Mo Forza, Bemma's Boy, Factor This, Sadler's Joy.

Turf Females

1.  Uni – Not much separates this one and Sistercharlie. With racing in New York and other locations not likely until late summer at the earliest, she has few options on where to return.

2.  Sistercharlie – Has lost only one race since June 2018, in last November's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Connections have a campaign planned that could include a run against the boys in the Arlington Million (G1) in late summer. She's back in light training at Palm Meadows, gearing up for her 6-year-old campaign.

3.  Got Stormy – Ran her race against the boys last out but was just edged at the wire by Rover Boyne in the Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita. Some may have been disappointed with this effort, but I felt it was one of her better races.

4.  Starship Jubilee – She is stacking up victories, as she won her third race already this season in Tampa Bay Downs' Hillsborough (G2). If not for the trio of stars on top of this division, she would be the one people are talking about. Don't count her out.
5.  Magic Wand – Tried valiantly in her first dirt start in the Saudi Cup, but it wasn't to be as she checked in ninth. Previously, the globetrotting mare ran a big race in the Pegasus World Cup Turf, finishing second after surprisingly setting the pace.

Next 5:  Rushing Fall, Cambier Parc, Beau Recall, Juliet Foxtrot, Jolie Olimpica.

Male Sprinters

1.  Whitmore - He takes over the top spot in a wide open sprint division. He beat the best field of sprinters we have seen so far in 2020 in the Count Fleet Sprint (G3) and did so handily. With two wins in three starts, he shows no signs of slowing down at age 7.

2.  Firenze Fire – Like Maximum Security, questions now surround this former Jason Servis trainee's future. Also like Maximum Security, he still occupies a top spot in his respective division. I still believe this horse is as good as he has run, but no one will know the real truth until he starts again for new trainer Kelly Breen's barn.

3.  Mind Control - Started off 2020 with a win in the Toboggan Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct. And last out a few weeks ago, he looked beaten but put in a spectacular stretch run to win the Tom Fool (G3). Would have liked to have seen him ship to Oaklawn for the Count Fleet Sprint, but COVID-19 has made going to and from New York difficult.

4.  Flagstaff - Off the board only once in 12 career starts, he ran a bang up second to Whitmore in the Count Fleet, rallying after a slow break. Previously in 2020, he won the San Carolos (G2) and finished runner-up in the Palos Verdes (G2) at Santa Anita.

5.  Shancelot - Previously trained by the now-indicted Jorge Navarro, he is reportedly headed to Steve Asmussen next month and will have questions to answer once he is back. 

Next 5: Imperial Hint, New York Central, Cistron, Captain Scotty, Vekoma.

 
Female Sprinters

1.  Hard Not to Love - Covfefe left a huge void at the top of this division. This Grade 1 heroine in 2019 returned a winner in the Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita and then tried to stretch out in the Beholder Mile at Santa Anita, where she was runner-up to Ce Ce. 

2.  Mia Mischief - Won last weekend's Carousel Stakes at Oaklawn in impressive fashion while beating a nice good field that included Grade 1 winner Bellafina. Now unbeaten for her new owner, Stonestreet Stables, she could contend for the top spot in this division soon.

3.  Come Dancing – Was up the track in the Apple Blossom in her first start of 2020. While that was around two turns, look for this gal to be back sprinting the rest of the season. 

4.  Serengeti Empress - Never saw the lead in the Apple Blossom and faded to finish 11th. Although she hasn't sprinted yet this season, we know she can hang with the very best as she showed last August when runner-up to Covfefe in the Test at Saratoga. Stays ranked here in this division for now.

5.  Pink Sands - In a division lacking depth, she cracks the top five. Won her only start this year sprinting in the Inside Information (G2) at Gulfstream. 

Next 5: Special Relativity, Spiced Perfection, Kimari, Royal Charlotte, Break Even.