Division rankings: Road to the Kentucky Derby nears finish line

This weekend we finally reach the finish line as far relevant races that will impact the Kentucky Derby. 

The Santa Anita Derby, the Blue Grass Stakes and the Wood Memorial will highlight the weekend, but as far as the 3-year-old rankings below, I don’t expect any of the these three races to change the overall picture. 

Before I dive into my thoughts on these three races, and what I believe is a much clearer picture as far as the Kentucky Derby concerned after last weekend’s action, let's take a look at this week's updated Division Rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Art Collector. Couldn't back up his January Pegasus World Cup (G1) win in the New Orleans Classic (G2) where he finished runner-up to West Will Power. Do I believe he will be ranked in this spot by year's end? No. But there really is no other we can place up here right now, is there?

2. Stilleto Boy. Has run strong in two starts this season. After a third-place finish in the Pegasus World Cup, he scored a popular win in a very deep Santa Anita Handicap (G1). Being a gelding, his fan base will grow, and barring injury, he should be around for awhile.

3. Last Samurai. Started his season off with a fourth-place finish behind Art Collector in the Pegasus but has won both his starts since, the Razorback (G3) and Essex (G3) at Oaklawn Park. He was flattered  with the New Orleans Classic result as the horse he beat in the Razorback, West Will Power, beat Art Collector in the New Orleans Classic (G2).

4. West Will Power. Easy winner over Art Collector in the New Orleans Classic. As with Art Collector, I'm going to need to see him put together starts like that before we can take him seriously in this division. Resides here for now.

5. Country Grammer. After a close runner-up in the Saudi Cup (G1) he disappointed as the favorite in the Dubai World Cup (G1), finishing up the track.

Next 5: Cody's Wish, Defunded, Taiba, Endorsed, Proxy.

Older dirt females

1. Secret Oath. Rested and refreshed, this gal looked better than ever in the Azeri (G2) at Oaklawn with a facile win over Clairiere. Remember, she was atop her division last year for the better part of five months.
2. A Mo Reay. A new player in this division, this daughter of Uncle Mo has certainly matured from 3 to 4. Last season she was off the board in her only graded-stakes start and had minimal success in listed stakes. This season she is unbeaten in two starts, the Bayakoa (G3) at Oaklawn and the Beholder Mile (G1) last out at Santa Anita.

3. Clairiere. Runner-up to Secret Oath in the Azeri, she didn't have a clean trip and lost ground because of it. Will get a chance to avenge this defeat in next month's Apple Blosson (G1).

4. Nest. Overmatched in the Breeders' Cup Distaff when off the board, finishing fourth. But she won a trio of Grade 1 events in 2022 and was crowned with the Eclipse as the top 3-year-old filly.

5. Search Results. Well beaten in the Breeder's Cup Distaff, she still had a great season, placing in all of her starts but one.

Next 5: Echo Zulu, Society, Matareya, Classy Edition, Fun to Dream.
3-year-old males

1. Forte. Gave his supporters a bit of a scare in the Florida Derby, but he prevailed by a length as the 1-5 favorite over a very weak field by Florida Derby standards. Now 2-for-2 this season, he will go to Louisville as the Kentucky Derby favorite.

2. Angel of Empire. If these were Kentucky Derby rankings this guy would be my No. 1 ranked horse. Facile winner of the Arkansas Derby last weekend, he has really come into his own in his last two starts. Blossoming at the right time, the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby should be in his wheelhouse. My likely pick to come away with the roses.
3. Tapit Trice. Very interesting horse. Was a facile winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in his first stakes start. He is bred to run all day. Looks to me like a Belmont horse, but I think the jury is still out on his Kentucky Derby chances. Back this weekend in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, it will be interesting to see how he breaks. As far as the inside post? I believe that's the perfect draw for this late running son of Tapit. He has no excuses this weekend not to come away with the win.
4. Practical Move. The San Felipe (G2) winner was super impressive, but as far as Kentucky Derby contenders go, I will look elsewhere. I can't envision him relishing the 10 furlongs in Louisville given his pedigree. He is now three for six on his career, never finishing off the board. Will run this weekend as the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby. 5. Kingsbarns. Another interesting addition. Won the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his first stakes start last weekend. Overall this son of Uncle Mo is three for three on his career, but he's very light in experience when it comes to his Kentucky Derby chances. Hard to envision him being a serious player in Louisville.

Next 9: Disarm, Arabian Knight, Reincarnate, Two Phil's, Confidence Game, Rocket Can, National Treasure, Newgate, Mage.

3-year-old females

1. Wet Paint. Okay, I'm a believer now. She pushed past Faiza for this spot because, well, I think she is better. She demolished the Fantasy (G3) field last weekend at Oaklawn and will head to Kentucky as the likely Oaks favorite. She is unbeaten in all four of her dirt track starts.

2. Faiza. Unbeaten in four career starts, she won again last out in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3). She remains near the top of this division for now based on her two graded-stakes wins already this season. She will run next in this weekend's Santa Anita Oaks (G2)
3. Wonder Wheel. Made her 3-year-old debut in Tampa Bay in the listed Suncoast Stakes and didn't run poorly when finishing a close runner-up to 38-1 long-shot winner Dreaming of Snow. Still, the result was disappointing no matter how you slice it. Super impressive last season at age 2, capping off her championship season in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies after closing strong to win going away. She gets back in action in Friday's Ashland (G1) at Keeneland. 4. Pretty Mischievous. Disappointing runner-up finish to Southlawn in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Before that effort she was impressive in the Rachel Alexandra (G2). Has taken a step forward from age 2 to 3 and remains in this spot. 5. And Tell Me Nolies. Made her 3-year-old debut March 5 against Faiza and ran well when runner-up. Remember, this gal won a Grade 1 last season at age 2. She joins Faiza in the Santa Anita Oaks this weekend.

Next 5: Southlawn, Affirmative Lady, Julia Shining, The Aly's Look, Red Carpet Ready.

Turf males

1. Modern Games. I know. I am breaking all of my rules. I am ranking a horse who hasn't run yet this year and is based overseas. But what else am I supposed to do here with this division, which again appears to lack a horse who can stand out? This guy did win the Eclipse last season and will run at Keeneland in the Makers Mark Mile (G1) next weekend.

2. Casa Creed. Now a 7-year-old, but he is in the best form of his career. He ran lights out when narrowly missing overseas in Saudi Arabia in the Turf Sprint (G3) and finishing second. The Saudi race was his first start this season.

3. Gold Phoenix. Super impressive last out winning the Kilroe Mile (G1). He has finished off the board only once in 11 career starts and is a major player in this division, in my opinion. Gets a chance to move to No. 1 in these rankings if he can take down the Whittingham Stakes (G2) this weekend at Santa Anita.

4. Hong Kong Harry. Simply didn't fire in the Kilroe Mile (G1) as the heavy favorite, finishing fourth. Was 5-for-6 last season with three graded-stakes wins. He still should contend in this division.

5. Atone. So much for his time at the top. He finished dead last in the Muniz Memorial Classic presented by Horse Racing Nation (G2) at the Fair Grounds. The Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) winner gets one mulligan to remain here in the top five.

Next 5: Emmanuel, Spooky Channel, Santin, Highland Chief, Therapist.

Turf females

1. War Like Goddess. Robbed of an Eclipse in 2021, she came very close in 2022 again but Regal Glory was the deserved winner. Back again in 2023, could the third time be the charm? An Eclipse contender again. Likely will make her 2023 debut at Keeneland in either the Elkhorn (G2) against males on April 22 or the Bewitch (G3) against fellow females six days later. Both races are at 12 furlongs.

2. In Italian. Ran well when runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Before that effort, she scored her second Grade 1 win in a row in the First Lady at Keeneland. Working steadily now for a return.

3. Queen Goddess. The Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G3) winner looks to be a serious contender this year in this division. She has won four graded stakes.

4. Shantisara. Looked very good winning the Hillsborough (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs a couple weeks back, and before that she was runner-up to Queen Goddess in the Pegasus. This gal is a Grade 1 winner and a player in this division.

5. Bleecker Street. Suffered the first loss of her career last time out in the Diana (G1) last summer after starting her career with seven straight victories. She put in her run from the back but had too much to do when finishing third. Back in training now and eying a spring comeback.

Next 5: Ballet Dancing, Amazing Grace, Closing Remarks, Faith in Humanity, Quattroelle.

Male sprinters

1. Elite Power. Certainly showed he is the best in the world now sprinting on the dirt. Overpowered the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3) field. Will come back to the states to run in major races and build a nice Eclipse-worthy resume.

2. Sibelius. Surprise winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), defeating Gunite, among others. Prior to that this guy won the listed Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Won his first graded stakes in late December at Gulfstream in the Mr. Prospector (G3).

3. Gunite. Disappointed somewhat in last out in the Golden Shaheen in Dubai when 3rd as the favorite. Previous to that he was simply the best of the rest when runner-up to Elite Power in Saudi Arabia. 

4. Cody's Wish. Came on late at the end of last season, winning the Forego (G1) at Saratoga and narrowly winning the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile over Cyberknife. Will drop soon if he doesn't run.

5. Repo Rocks. Has won both of his 2023 starts, the Toboggan (G3) and the Stymie, a listed stakes, both at Aqueduct. Will run this weekend in the Carter (G1) at Aqueduct.

Next 5: American Theorem, Spirit of Makena, Laurel River, Tejano Twist, Little Vic.

Will this weekend provide any new Kentucky Derby contenders?

It’s interesting. In years past I would consider this weekend’s Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass, and Wood Memorial the most impactful as far as clarifying the Kentucky Derby picture four weeks away. But we have to dive deep here and really sort of just, well, be honest with ourselves. This year it doesn’t appear to be the case. 

I certainly still consider the Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass to have impact on the Kentucky Derby in most season, but the Wood Memorial can longer be looked at as an equal to the other major Kentucky Derby points races. 

I’ll start with the Wood this weekend. The favorite is Hit Show, who’s lone stakes effort was a win in the Withers at Aqueduct. The second choice, Dreamlike, is a maiden who is winless in two starts. I’ll stop there. That tells me enough.

The Wood is a nice race for sure, but as far as Kentucky Derby impact, it has had none since 2003 when Funny Cide came out of the Wood to win the Kentucky Derby. Times were different back then, and since Funny Cide, the top three Wood finishers have gone a collective 0-54 in Kentucky Derby placings. So no, the Wood Memorial, in my opinion at least, can’t be in the same category as races like the Santa Anita and Florida derbies, the Blue Grass, Arkansas Derby, or even the Louisiana Derby. Do I expect any runners at Aqueduct this weekend in the Wood to jump up and be Kentucky Derby Contenders? No, I do not. 

Moving on to the Blue Grass Stakes, which does have a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender in the No. 3 ranked Tapit Trice, the winner of the Tampa Bay Derby. Like many others, I am interested to see how Tapit Trice handles the break and navigates his way towards the finish line. Tapit Trice is on my short list of Kentucky Derby horses along with Angel of Empire and Disarm. Drawing the No. 1 post this weekend is irrelevant, he likes to come from off the pace and he should save ground. The step up in distance from the Tampa Bay Derby distance of 1 1/16 miles to the Blue Grass 1 1/8 miles should move him up even more. Anything less than a win for Tapit Trice would be a disappointment. 

The Santa Anita Derby has been a great tool for Kentucky Derby handicappers as several who ran in or won have had success in Louisville. This year, though, appears to be a down year to me. The favorite, the No. 4 ranked Practical Move, looked good last out when he won the San Felipe (G2), impressing speed figure gurus. I have two issues with Practical Move, though. His pedigree screams miler at best. I don’t believe the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby will be to his liking, and even the nine furlongs of the Santa Anita Derby may be a bit too much. Secondly, I have to question the quality of who he has beaten out west. I believe the California contingent of 3-year-old males is below average, or at least not as good as what we have grown accustomed to in past years. 

So there you have it. Lots of opinions thrown out here, but if we are being honest I think many of you would agree.