Division rankings: Mage returns in Haskell seeking respect

This weekend’s Grade 1 Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park marks the return of Kentucky Derby winner Mage in his first start since the Preakness nine weeks ago.

The Haskell also attracted Tapit Trice, the Kentucky Derby second wagering choice who finished seventh. But, oddly enough, a horse who was absent from the Triple Crown, and who hasn’t run in 24 weeks with a grand total of two career starts, might be favored over both.

Arabian Knight (No. 9), trained by Bob Baffert, is back. A dominant winner in his only two starts, he was last seen running away with the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park in late January. Arabian Knight was among the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, but his connections made a strategic decision in early March to take him out of training temporarily, opting to "not rush and allow him more time to develop." Despite the uncertainty surrounding his absence from racing for the last six months, Arabian Knight is now back on the scene.

Yet, one must wonder: Should Arabian Knight truly be favored over Kentucky Derby winner Mage?

Before I get into this debate, let's take a look at the updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Cody's Wish. Has to be ranked here for now on the basis of his two Grade 1 wins this season. I write "has to" because he has yet to win a stakes beyond a mile. He was stellar in the Met Mile (G1) last time out, and next time out he will stretch out to nine panels in the Whitney (G1) on Aug. 5 at Saratoga. Cody's Wish is in the same boat that Mitole was in a few years back and Life Is Good last year as far as distance limitations, and it will be tough to secure an Eclipse other than the sprint award unless he can stretch out successfully. No horse has won the Eclipse in this division who hasn’t won at nine furlongs or more since the inception of the awards more than 50 years ago. A long shot, in my opinion, to come out on top here by year's end or even to run in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

2. West Will Power. The winner of the Stephen Foster (G1), he beat several ranked below. Now 2-for-4 on the season, he appears to be a major player in this division. Will head to Saratoga and the Whitney (G1) for his next start.

3. Defunded. Hard-knocking gelding won the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) on Memorial Day. Two graded-stakes wins this season from four starts, and he hasn't been off the board in any of them. In the best form of his career. Won't leave the state of California for the remainder of the season. The San Diego Handicap (G2) at Del Mar on July 29 could be next.

4. Rattle N Roll. This guy was very good as a 2-year-old, struggled at the top level last year at age 3, but now has made it all the way back to the top level with three graded-stakes wins this season. Last out his runner-up to West Will Power in the Stephen Foster proved he is for real as it was by far the best field he has faced this season.

5. Smile Happy. Had all sorts of problems last out in the Stephen Foster before the race was even run. He clearly didn't want to run and had to be backed some 200 yards into the gate. Anyone with the horse's well being in mind who witnessed this fiasco prior to the race had to come away stunned that he wasn't a late scratch. Thankfully, he completed his trip around the Ellis Park oval without any mishaps and finished fifth, beaten a little over five lengths. I will give him a mulligan for this one. Previously he was super impressive on Kentucky Oaks day when winning the Alysheba (G2). He should be a player in this division in races up to nine furlongs. I just can't see him being a serious threat if he is forced to run 10 furlongs.

Next 5: Art Collector, Stiletto Boy, Last Samurai, Proxy, Hopper.

Older dirt females

1. Clairiere. The clear leader of the division, she ran down Search Results in the Ogden Phipps (G1) on Belmont day, winning that event for the second year in a row. A valid case can be made that she has been the best older filly or mare the last two seasons, but she has been a bit unlucky. With two Grade 1 wins now this season, the Eclipse will go through this daughter of Curlin. Will run this weekend in the Shuvee (G2), where she will face Nest.

2. Search Results. Have to feel for her connections as she was a tough-luck runner-up yet again, this time to Clairiere in the Ogden Phipps. In her previous start she was a close third, beaten two heads in the La Troienne (G1). Runs this weekend in the Molly Pitcher (G3) at Monmouth.

3. Played Hard. Ran well to be third in the Phipps to Clairiere. Won the La Troienne in her only other start this season. Off the board only two times in 16 career starts. She will tackle Clairiere again this weekend.

4. Secret Oath. She simply didn't fire in the Phipps, finishing fifth and beaten over 12 lengths. Now 1-for-4 on the season, the Phipps was the worst start of her career. She is the only horse to have beaten Clairiere this season.

5. Adare Manor. Likely the best of the west, this gal has won the Santa Maria (G2) and Santa Margarita (G2) in her last two starts. Overall she is 3-for-4 on the season.

Next 5: A Mo Reay, Pass the Champagne, Fun to Dream, Pauline's Pearl, Eda.

3-year-old males

1. Forte. Was here at No. 1 prior to the Kentucky Derby and nothing that took place in the Triple Crown events was enough to displace him. Much like Epicenter a year ago, will stay here despite not winning a Triple Crown race. His Belmont effort was superb given the circumstances. He has swept both of his meetings with Kentucky Derby winner Mage, and the one time he faced Preakness runner-up Blazing Sevens this season he defeated him by more than 25 lengths. Will be favored in the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga for his next start.

2. Mage. His Preakness third-place finish is a complicated one to analyze. He certainly was in good position throughout, but he didn't have enough at the end. The race he ran in the Derby, combined with the stitches and the fresh horses he faced, got him beaten by more than a slow pace in Baltimore. After all is said and done, this guy has a maiden win and a Kentucky Derby win, the same boat as Rich Strike a year ago. Will run in the Haskell (G1) this weekend.

3. Angel of Empire. Disappointed in the Belmont, and I partly blame his trainer. For all the good press Brad Cox receives, why put blinkers on him? I agree with several who commented before and after the race on this move. Why ask him for speed? This was a textbook example of how to screw up (front-load) a group-herd-dynamic horse's energy distribution. The Arkansas Derby (G1) winner finished a close third in the Kentucky Derby, and I still feel that he one of the top five 3-year-old males. Will take on Forte in the Jim Dandy (G2) next week.

4. Arcangelo. Very impressed with his Belmont win as he had a golden trip up the rail to post a facile win over a strong field. But this was the Belmont, a 12-furlong race that is known to produce out-of-the-box results. Likely will point to the Travers (G1) next but wouldn't be favored in a race over any of the above. The Belmont was his second stakes win in five starts. His connections state they will either train up to the Travers or skip it entirely. OK. Skipping multiple big events while others in his division are present and accounted for in said events doesn't bode well for his Eclipse chances.

5. National Treasure. His Preakness win was his first stakes win. Prior to the Preakness he was off the board in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and in his most recent race, the Belmont Stakes, he was off the board when sixth.

Next 5: Arabian Lion, Tapit Trice, Practical Move, Arabian Knight, Disarm.

3-year-old females

1. Pretty Mischievous. Took a big lead in this division with her Acorn (G1) win last out. Before that she scored in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She has won the two biggest events that her division has to offer so far this season. She is now 6-for-8 on her career, never finishing off the board. Connection have decided to skip the CCA Oaks (G1) this weekend and the Alabama (G1) in August and instead choose to shorten her up and sprint in the Test (G1) in August. Interesting decision, one that could bring her down from this top spot.

2. Wet Paint. Couldn't overcome a ridiculously slow pace set by Hoosier Philly in the Monomoy Girl Stakes, where she finished second. Still keeping her ranked here for now. Finished fourth as the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks before the Monomoy Girl after demolishing the Fantasy (G3) field at Oaklawn. Will try to get back in this Eclipse race with a run in this weekend's CCA Oaks.

3. Gambling Girl. Nearly pulled off the Kentucky Oaks upset, losing by a neck. Winless in four starts this season but has placed in two graded stakes. Will run in the CCA Oaks this weekend.

4. Faiza. Disappointed as the favorite last out in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2), where she finished third. The loss snapped a five-race win streak to start her career, and four of those were graded events.

5. Window Shopping. Won the Summertime Oaks (G2) last out defeating The Alys Look, and before that she was third in Faiza's Santa Anita Oaks (G1).

Next 5: Hoosier Philly, Dorth Vader, Defining Purpose, Taxed, The Alys Look.

Turf males

1. Up to the Mark. Was superb last out winning the Manhattan (G1) at Belmont Park, giving him two Grade 1 wins on this season, a rarity for this division the last few years. Do we finally have a grass horse based in the U.S. who can make noise this fall in the Breeders' Cup when the big guns come in from overseas? The jury is out. He certainly has handled the fields he has faced in his last two starts, both of which were Grade 1 wins. But if we are being honest, the fields he has beaten were suspect, and two months ago he faced two horses ranked in this top five and was soundly defeated when third in the Makers Mark Mile (G1). So for now this guy will reside here, but there is a long way to go.

2. Exaulted. Since being moved to the grass from the dirt, this guy is 4-for-4. His win in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) was his second graded-stakes victory of the season, and he may very well be the best in this division right now. Bigger things could be in store for this son of Twirling Candy. Won't return until early September in the Del Mar Mile (G2).

3. Modern Games. Fourth at Royal Ascot, he has lost five of his last six overseas. The runner-up in the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) earlier this year. This guy won the Eclipse last season and at least has made a start in this country already.

4. Casa Creed. Really impressed last weekend in the Kelso (G3) at Saratoga, which served as a prep for his next assignment, the Fourstardave (G1) on Aug. 12. Previous to the Kelso he ran well in the Jaipur (G1), finishing a close third to Caravel. Now a 7-year-old, he is in the best form of his career. 

5. Chez Pierre. No way around it, he disappointed in the Poker (G3), finishing third last out at Belmont Park. The Poker was only his second loss on the lawn. The Maker's Mark Mile winner will make his next appearance at Saratoga.

Next 5: Emmanuel, Ottoman Fleet, Hong Kong Harry, Spooky Channel, Never Explain.

Turf females

1. In Italian. Was stunned last weekend tasting defeat for the first time in over a year to another in this division. Her narrow runner-up finish in the Diana (G1) won't knock her off the top spot here, and that likely will be the last time she runs nine furlongs. Look for her to run shorter for the remainder of the season as she charts a course to a return engagement in the Breeders' Cup Mile. 

2. Caravel. This gal is a turf sprinter but she has to occupy this spot now after her win over the boys in the Jaipur (G1) at Belmont Park. She is 3-for-3 this season. Both of her graded-stakes wins this season have come over males. Will face males again Aug. 5 in the Troy Stakes (G3) at Saratoga.

3. War Like Goddess. The favorite in the New York Stakes (G1), this gal likes to come from far back and, given the ridiculously slow fractions, she was up against it and finished off the board for only the second time in 15 career starts. There was something different about this effort as she has overcome ultra-slow fractions before, and it didn't appear that the spark was there. She was beaten just a little over two lengths in finishing sixth. Will try for a three-peat in the Glens Falls (G2) on Aug. 3 at Saratoga.

4. Whitebeam. Upset In Italian in the Diana (G1) for her first grade 1 win and second graded-stakes win overall. Previous to the Diana she won the Gallorette (G3) on Preakness day at Pimlico.

5. Marketsegmentation. Off the board in the Diana, she previously won the New York Stakes (G1) over War Like Goddess.

Next 5: Didia, With the Moonlight, Fluffy Socks, Spendarella, Higher Truth.

Male sprinters

1. Elite Power. Two starts this year, and in those two starts he has has really elevated his stature. He overpowered the True North (G2) field last out and now will turn his attention to the Vanderbilt (G1) on July 29 and the Forego (G1) on Aug. 26, both at Saratoga. He is building a resume of big early-season wins, much like Jackie's Warrior last season. But, as we have learned previously, it isn't enough for Eclipse voters who demand wins in the last month or two of the season. Is ranked above Cody's Wish because this guy is the Eclipse winner and hasn't lost since.

2. Cody's Wish. Do we keep him ranked down here with the sprinters? Sure we do. He has one Grade 1 sprint race win this year, the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), and last out he dominated the Met Mile (G1). Could try to stretch out in the Whitney (G1), but just as likely will be back going a mile or less. Because of his connections, we likely will never see the matchup we all want to see, this guy vs. Elite Power going seven furlongs.

3. Spirit of Makena. The best of the West Coast sprinters right now, he has won all three of his starts this season. Last out, he overpowered the Triple Bend (G2) field, and before that he won the San Carlos (G2). The dark horse Eclipse contender in this division, he will run next in the Big Crosby (G1) next weekend at Del Mar.

4. Gunite. Disappointed somewhat in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) when third as the favorite. Before that he was simply the best of the rest when runner-up to Elite Power in Saudi Arabia. He overpowered the Aristides Stakes last out, beating four others.

5. Sibelius. Surprise winner of the Golden Shaheen, defeating Gunite, among others. Before that this guy won the listed Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Won his first graded stakes in late December at Gulfstream in the Mr. Prospector (G3). Was off the board when fourth in Gunite's Aristides win last out.

Next 5: Repo Rocks, Doppelganger, Skelly, Strobe, Three Technique.

Female sprinters

1. Goodnight Olive. Rebounded from her loss in the Derby City Distaff (G1) with a good win last out in the Bed o' Roses (G2), where she narrowly defeated Wicked Halo. The Eclipse winner from last season started her season with a win in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland. Connections now will point her to the Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga on Aug. 26. That will be her last start prior to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

2. Wicked Halo. Runner-up again in another huge effort last out in the Bed o' Roses, this time to Goodnight Olive. She is most certainly a serious contender for the Eclipse in this division and appears to be just getting better. Before the Bed o' Roses she was runner-up in the Derby City Distaff to Matareya.

3. Society. Has rebounded from a rough start to her season with a 10-length win last out over Matareya in the Chicago Stakes (G3). Previous to that she was ninth in the La Troienne (G1) and third in the Madison (G1). Perhaps she is a player in this division? Not sure. I will side with the Chicago Stakes being an aberration.

4. Matareya. Upset the top one in the Derby City Distaff earlier this year but disappointed when well beaten in the Chicago Stakes (G3) at Ellis Park.

5. Frank's Rockette. Won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) at Gulfstream in early March and the Roxelana Stakes at Churchill in late April.

Next 5: Maple Leaf Mel, Fun to Dream, Echo Zulu, Caramel Swirl, Maryquitecontrary.

Time for Mage to prove his mettle

I’ll be the first to admit it. I’ve been guilty of not giving Mage the respect he probably deserved for winning the Kentucky Derby. I have several reasons, but this isn’t about that. This week I’m changing my tune and coming to Mage’s defense.

Although Mage has only one stakes win and only five career starts, he is a battle-tested, hardened veteran compared with the unproven Arabian Knight.

While morning-line odds are just a starting place, often set by those who won’t do their homework and leaving us scratching our heads, this year’s Haskell morning line is particularly puzzling.

Look, I get it. Arabian Knight is trained by Bob Baffert, who has won the Haskell nine times previously. Monmouth Park rolls out the red carpet for Baffert, and Baffert keeps sending his best horses to the Haskell. But Arabian Knight knows nothing of his trainer’s success at the New Jersey oval.

The reality is that Arabian Knight is by far the least accomplished horse his trainer has ever entered in the Haskell. With only one start this year against a nondescript Southwest Stakes (G3) field and a maiden win last year, a victory in Saturday’s Haskell would be a remarkable and somewhat improbable achievement for this son of Uncle Mo, in my opinion.

As I've written in previous weeks, Mage's resume may be somewhat light, but when compared with the field on Saturday, he towers over the others in experience and "strength of schedule," so to speak. Despite the bizarre morning line, I believe Mage will go to post as the favorite. However, he undoubtedly has his work cut out for him.

Tapit Tice has been a disappointment in his last two starts. Once highly regarded, he will have to show us he belongs. Until then, he can’t be trusted in a spot like this.

Geaux Rocket Ride, on the other hand, is an intriguing horse. Trained by Richard Mandella, he was shipped cross country for this spot. He’s fresh off of a victory in the Affirmed Stakes, and previous to that was runner-up to Practical Move in the San Felipe (G2).

As it relates to the rankings above, the Haskell is an important race for Mage. His chief competition for the Eclipse, Forte, will run in next week’s Jim Dandy, where he will be favored over what is expected to be a much stronger field than this Haskell.

If Mage loses the Haskell and Forte secures a victory next week, it will make the Travers a must-win for Mage in the 3-year-old Eclipse race. Remember, Forte already holds a 2-0 lead in head-to-head matchups against Mage.

But first things first. The Kentucky Derby winner returns in the Haskell this weekend. It’s time for Mage to validate his Kentucky Derby triumph.