Division Rankings: Lukas Classic delivers eclectic field

As far as Eclipse implications, this weekend's Lukas Classic (G2) at Churchill Downs figures to have little impact for two reasons, which I will dive into below. But with an interesting field of six horses entered, four of whom are Grade 1 winners, it certainly is the highlight of this weekend's racing calendar.

Before I dive into this Lukas Classic field, here's a look at this week's updated Division Rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Flightline. Simply put, his Pacific Classic (G1) performance was one of the best we have seen in the last several decades. If he shows up in the Breeders' Cup Classic, the others are running for second place, in my opinion. He has a stranglehold now on this Eclipse and Horse of the Year. The question on everyone's mind now is how fast will be run at Keeneland and how much will he win by. He will be the shortest-priced Breeders' Cup race favorite in history.

2. Life Is Good. Ran a monster race in the Whitney (G1), but can he win the 10-furlong Breeders' Cup Classic? No. He will run in this weekend's Woodward (G1) at Aqueduct facing an overmatched field of four others. Regardless of what happens there, I fully expect his connections to opt for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile instead of facing Flightline in the Classic.

3. Olympiad. Got back to his winning ways in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and in a normal season he would be in the thick of things for this divisional Eclipse. But it would take one of the biggest upsets we have seen – defeating Flightline in the Breeders' Cup Classic – to win this divisional Eclipse.

4. Country Grammer. Ran his race when a distant runner-up to Flightline in the Pacific Classic, finishing clear of the rest. Like everyone else in this division, he is far behind Flightline. Will go next this weekend in the Awesome Again (G1) at Santa Anita, facing the likes of Royal Ship and Express Train.

5. Happy Saver. He fires every time and has finished behind only the best in the division this year. The 10 furlongs of the Breeders' Cup Classic would be perfect for him if he runs. Has a big shot in this weekend's Lukas Classic (G2).

Next 5: Hot Rod Charlie, Art Collector, Royal Ship, Express Train, Americanrevolution.

Older dirt females

1. Clairiere. Was up the track in the recent Personal Ensign (G1), where she suffered a cut to her tongue at the start of the race. Stays here on top in these rankings because she has defeated Malathaat in two of their three meetings, both Grade 1 events. Recency bias aside, that matters in this rankings. Has the best resume of any in this division so far in 2022.

2. Malathaat. Scored her second win of the year from four starts in the Personal Ensign. That was her first Grade 1 win of the season, but she still hasn't done enough to unseat No. 1 Clairiere. Will run next in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland on Oct. 9, which would help pad her resume.

3. Search Results. Tough-luck runner-up to Malathaat in the Personal Ensign, this gal fires her best every time. Is a major player in this division and could be flying under the radar come Breeders' Cup time.

4. Letruska. She had no excuses when finishing third in the Personal Ensign, and perhaps she has lost a step or two now at age 6. She likely will run in the Spinster next as well and still is dangerous when she is at the top of her game.

5. Blue Stripe. This mare from South America has been getting better and better, and don't be surprised to see her continue her winning ways and be a major contender at Breeders' Cup time. Scored a facile win in the recent Clement Hirsch (G1) at Del Mar.

Next 5: Shedaresthedevil, Pauline's Pearl, Private Mission, Miss Leslie, Miss Bigly.

3-year-old males

1. Epicenter. Facile winner of the Travers (G1) a few weeks back, this guy is a near cinch for the Eclipse in this division. Will train up the to the Breeders' Cup Classic, where he will have the daunting task of facing Flightline.
2. Taiba. In only five career starts. this guy has started in four Grade 1 events already. He was outstanding in last weekend's Pennsylvania Derby (G1) scoring a facile win over others ranked below here. Appears to have stepped up his game and is maturing at the right time. Will go next in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
3. Cyberknife. Didn't show the same early speed in the Penn Derby as he did in the Travers and as a result was left with too much to do in the stretch. Did manage to finished third, but the Haskell (G1) winner needed a win to have any shot in this Eclipse race.
4. Zandon. Ran his usual race in last weekend's Penn Derby which resulted in another good on-the-board effort. In four graded stakes since his Blue Grass (G1) win in April, he has finished runner-up twice and third twice. Will not point to the Breeders' Cup Classic.
5. Rich Strike. Look, you have to give this guy credit for running a very good race in the Travers, missing the runner-up spot by a nose and a neck. He will run this weekend in the Lukas Classic (G2) on Oct. 1, facing a strong group of older horses. A win in this spot would be another big upset.
Next 5: Early Voting, Charge It, Jack Christopher, White Abarrio, Tawny Port.
3-year-old females

1. Nest. Dominant again last out in the Alabama (G1) at Saratoga, this gal clearly thrives the longer she goes. Before that she was a dominant winner of the CCA Oaks (G1), beating her rival Secret Oath by double-digit lengths. Seemingly has command of this division now, and she will run next in the Beldame (G2) at Aqueduct on Oct. 9 before heading to the Breeders' Cup Distaff at Keeneland.

2. Secret Oath. Just wasn't good enough in the Cotillion (G1) last weekend where she finished a flat third, beaten over seven lengths. The Kentucky Oaks winner just had too much to do with the winner, Society, taking the lead from the start and separating herself from the field on the far turn. Now 3-for-8 on the season, her connections will point her to the Breeders' Cup Distaff.
3. Moira. Dominant winner of the Queen's Plate over males in Canada, she is unbeaten in three starts this season. Her connections are thinking big and skipped the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown and instead will point her to a race against the best in this division in the U.S. We should find out then just how good this daughter of Ghostzapper really is.

4. Echo Zulu. Made her return to the races a winning one in last weekend's Dogwood (G3), where she won by over five lengths. This was the first time she has run since she was a gate scratch in the Acorn (G1) in June. Still feel that if given another chance at nine furlongs she could beat the best in this division.
5. Society. Ran well in the Cotillion last weekend, running away with it to score by over five lengths. The Cotillion was her second graded-stakes win. Before the Cotillion she won the Charles Town Oaks (G3).
Next 5: Kathleen O, Matareya, Interstatedaydream, Under the Stars, Desert Dawn.

Turf males

1. Count Again. This guy has racked up two Grade 1 wins already this season and is 3-for-4 on the year. His win over Smooth Like Strait in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) was his best effort yet. The only member of this division who has multiple Grade 1 wins on the season thus far. Stays here on top here as a placeholder for now, given that he is out for the season. Will drop from this spot soon.

2. Gufo. The Sword Dancer (G1) winner just missed at Kentucky Downs when runner-up to Red Knight in the Kentucky Turf Cup (G2). He started his 2022 season off right with a facile two-length win in the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream but then finished runner-up in the Man O' War Stakes (G1) and third in the Manhattan (G1), both at Belmont Park.

3. Yibir. Finally got back into the win column in the Princess of Wales's (G2) at Newmarket. Last year's Breeders' Cup Turf winner had two seconds and a third in his previous starts this season. Had to miss a scheduled start in this weekend's Sword Dancer because of a "minor setback," according to his connections, and now will miss the Breeders' Cup and point to the Dubai meet in 2023. He too will drop in the coming weeks.

4. Nations Pride. This 3-year-old has been super impressive in his races in the U.S., nearly sweeping the Turf Triple Series of races held in New York. His last time out in the Jockey Club Derby (G3) was his best effort yet, winning by more than six lengths.

5. Modern Games. Very impressive last time out in the Woodbine Mile (G1), beating a somewhat suspect field. He has a record of two wins from five starts this season. Unlike others, I am not convinced he is the best in this division here in North America.

Next 5: Red Knight, Golden Pal, Santin, Smooth Like Strait, Casa Creed.

Turf females

1. Regal Glory. Found the waters a bit too deep when trying males last time out in the Fourstardave (G1) as she finished runner-up, her first loss of the season. Previously she was outstanding in the Just a Game (G1) at Belmont on Belmont Stakes day. She started her season off with a win in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G3) and then won the Jenny Wiley (G1) at Keeneland over a strong field. Still has the lead in this division on the strength of her two Grade 1 wins this season.

2. War Like Goddess. Defeated last out in the Flower Bowl (G2), but she was severely compromised by a extremely slow pace. Given her coming from far out of it running style, this loss can be forgiven. The Breeders' Cup Turf against males could be the long-range goal for this gal.

3. Going Global. Upset last time out when finishing runner-up in the John C. Mabee (G2) at Del Mar. Before that she scored a facile three-length win in the Yellow Ribbon (G2) at Del Mar. Earlier this season she scored in the Royal Heroine (G2) at Santa Anita. The best female turfer on the West Coast, she will run next in the Rodeo Drive (G1) at Santa Anita on Oct. 8.

4. Bleecker Street. Suffered the first loss of her career last time out in the Diana (G1) after starting her career 7-for-7. She put in her run from the back but had too much to do when finishing third. I won't drop her off because of that one loss, but now she is on the shelf with an injury. Will drop in the coming weeks.

5. In Italian. Scored her biggest win to date last time in the Diana at Saratoga, where she went wire-to-wire, set quick early fractions and never came back to the field.

Next 5: Dalika, Ocean Road, Technical Analysis, Avenue de France, Princess Grace.

Male sprinters

1. Jackie's Warrior. One of the bigger sprint upsets we have seen in awhile, this guy was defeated in the Forego (G1) last time out at Saratoga when runner-up to Cody's Wish. Still, he has a stranglehold on this Eclipse and will get my vote win, lose, or draw in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, likely his final career start.

2. Jack Christopher. Back sprinting, he was dominant in the Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) at seven furlongs over the Saratoga oval. No matter which Breeders' Cup race his connections choose – the Dirt Mile or Sprint – he will be a major player.

3. American Theorem. Was runner-up in the Pat O'Brien (G2) after winning the last two graded sprint stakes out west. Still, he figures to be the West Coast's best hope come Breeders' Cup Sprint time. Skipping this weekend's Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2).

4. Cody's Wish. Upset winner of the Forego (G1), this guy appears to be the real deal. The Forego was his sixth win from 10 starts but only his second graded-stakes win. Will need to see him do it again before he moves up.

5. Golden Pal. Won last time out in the Troy Stakes (G3) at Saratoga, but only by a nose. Should have one more start prior to his Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint title defense.

Next 5: Laurel River, Speakers Corner, Aloha West, Gunite, Brickyard Ride.

Female sprinters

1. Obligatory. Finished third to Goodnight Olive last out in the Ballerina (G1), but I still believe she will be the one to beat come Breeders' Cup day. Earlier this season she beat the best in this division except for Ce Ce in the Derby City Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs with a strong closing kick. Several could be ranked here, but she resides here for now.

2. Goodnight Olive. Unbeaten in three starts this season, and last time out she scored her first graded-stakes win in the Ballerina, defeating several ranked here. Like Cody's Wish on the male side, I will need to see her do it again before she moves up. Could run next on Oct. 9 at Keeneland in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2).

3. Ce Ce. Off the board in the Ballerina last time out. Last season's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner should get one more start before an expected defense of her Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint title. She too is expected in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2) on Oct. 9.

4. Just One Time. The beaten favorite in the Derby City, she finished third with no excuses. Previously this season she won the Madison (G1) at Keeneland and the Inside Information (G2) at Gulfstream.

5. Kimari. Another strong dirt sprint win, this time in last weekend's Gallant Bloom (G2) at Aqueduct. She is much better on the dirt, in my opinion, and will now point to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint where I believe she is on the shortlist of likely winners.

Next 5: Edgeway, Bell's the One, Caramel Swirl, Becca Taylor, Lady Rocket.

In the short nine-year history of the Lukas Classic, it certainly has seen nice winners, with Knicks Go using this race last year as a springboard to his Breeders’ Cup Classic win and Horse of the Year. But this year the Lukas Classic yields its strongest field yet, with four grade 1 winners entered and for the first time, a Kentucky Derby winner.

Rich Strike carries the baton for the 3-year-olds as he the first of his class to take on top older males this season. Back on the Churchill Downs track where he scored that monumental upset in May, a win in this spot would be just as surprising to me, given the quality of older horses he is facing.

Hot Rod Charlie leads the trio of Grade 1-winning older males entered. This 4-year-old colt is the staple of consistency, always showing up to run his race. Since his close runner-up to Essential Quality at 94-1 odds in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he has been a regular at most major races. Last time out he finished two lengths behind Life Is Good in the Whitney at Saratoga. For this Lukas Classic, anything less than a win would be a disappointment.

Like Hot Rod Charlie, Happy Saver runs his race every time. Never off the board in 11 starts, Happy Saver won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in 2020 but hasn’t won a stakes since. Instead, he has finished runner-up in five straight graded stakes, four of which were Grade 1.

Art Collector comes from the same class as Happy Saver, both foaled in 2017. Art Collector counts last year’s Woodward as his lone Grade 1 win. This year the son of Bernardini has made only three starts. He was up the track in the Saudi Cup (G1) last February and then after a long break returned in August with a win in the listed Alydar at Saratoga and scored a facile win last time out in the Charles Town Classic (G2).

Now, what sort of Eclipse award impact does this race hold? Well, for the older horses entered in this spot, little to none. With Flightline dominating the headlines – and races – and a couple of other older males with better resumes than any of these entered, there isn’t much hope.

For the 3-year-old Rich Strike, I suppose there are still scenarios for him to land an Eclipse, albeit long-shot scenarios. With no 3-year-old separating themselves with a plethora of major wins, I suppose a good effort here would help his cause.

But make no mistake, for any 3-year-old to unseat Travers winner Epicenter for the Eclipse, they would have to defeat Flightline and win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.