Division rankings: Is this Ky. Derby really wide open?

We are little over a week away from the 149th renewal of the Kentucky Derby and I'm going out on a limb to make pretty bold statements about this year’s race.

I don't think this year’s edition is a wide-open affair. I believe only four horses can win the race, and of those four, I am extremely confident in two.

Before I dive into these thoughts and probably ruffle the feathers of supporters from other contenders, let's take a look at this week's updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Stilleto Boy. Yes, I will catch heat for placing him up top here, but here we are. This guy did all the running in last week's Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and fell just short at the wire to lose by two noses to Proxy, a horse he defeated in his previous two starts this season. Given that, he has to be ranked ahead of Proxy. Recency bias doesn't exist in these rankings, so the head-to-head record along with his Grade 1 win matters here.

2. Last Samurai. Ran a great race in the Oaklawn Handicap, getting nosed out for the win. He has split his two meetings with Proxy this season and has arguably the better resume. Close call here, but I ranked him ahead of Proxy because I think he has been better in 2023. Before the Oaklawn Handicap he won the Razorback (G3) and Essex (G3) at Oaklawn Park.

3. Art Collector. Couldn't back up his January Pegasus World Cup (G1) win in the New Orleans Classic (G2), where he finished runner-up to West Will Power. Do I believe he will be ranked this high by year's end? No.

4. Proxy. Closed well to score his first stakes win of the season and the second in his career. But I need to see much more from this guy. The Oaklawn was his first win of the season after an off-the-board finish in the Pegasus World Cup and his runner-up finish to Stilleto Boy in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1).

5. West Will Power. Easy winner over Art Collector in the New Orleans Classic. As with Art Collector, I'm going to need to see him put together more starts like that before we can take him seriously in this division. Resides here for now.

Next 5: Defunded, Country Gammer, Cody's Wish, Taiba, Endorsed.

Older dirt females

1. Clairiere. Ran down Secret Oath last out in the Apple Blossom (G1) to take over divisional leadership for now. Previously she was runner-up to Secret Oath in the Azeri (G2) at Oaklawn.

2. Secret Oath. Did nothing really wrong in defeat running a great race in the Apple Blossom. I have a feeling these top two will battle in many races this season.
3. A Mo Reay. A new player in this division, this daughter of Uncle Mo has certainly matured from 3 to 4. Last season she was off the board in her only graded-stakes start and had minimal success in listed stakes. This season she is unbeaten in two starts, the Bayakoa (G3) at Oaklawn and the Beholder Mile (G1) last out at Santa Anita.

4. Nest. Overmatched in the Breeders' Cup Distaff when off the board, finishing fourth. But she won a trio of Grade 1 events in 2022 and was crowned with the Eclipse as the top 3-year-old filly. Might not see her until June on Belmont day in the Ogden Phipps (G1). Not a big fan of sitting a healthy horse for half the season while others in her division are running and stacking up Eclipse-worthy wins.

5. Search Results. Well beaten in the Breeder's Cup Distaff, she still had a great season, placing in all of her starts but one. Next 5: Echo Zulu, Society, Matareya, Classy Edition, Fun to Dream.
3-year-old males

1. Forte. Gave his supporters a bit of a scare in the Florida Derby (G1), but he prevailed by a length as the 1-5 favorite over a very weak field by Florida Derby standards. Now 2-for-2 this season, he is in Louisville as the Kentucky Derby favorite and one of the few in the field who I think have a shot to win.
2. Angel of Empire. If these were Kentucky Derby rankings, this guy would be my No. 1 ranked horse. Facile winner of the Arkansas Derby (G1) last time out, he has really come into his own in his last two starts. Blossoming at the right time, the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby should be in his wheelhouse. My likely pick to come away with the roses.
3. Tapit Trice. Impressive winner last time in the Blue Grass (G1), and he gives the impression he will get even better the farther he goes. He might be the horse to beat on Kentucky Derby day. Very interesting horse. Before the Blue Grass he was a facile winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (G3).
4. Practical Move. Narrow winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) last time out, he will head to Louisville as one of the top choices, I guess. I can't get past his pedigree, though, and will likely fade him on my tickets. But given his resume, he is locked into this spot right now. Kentucky Derby pretender? 5. Kingsbarns. Another interesting horse. Won the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his first stakes start a few weeks ago, and overall this son of Uncle Mo is 3-for-3 on his career. But he's very light in experience when it comes to his Kentucky Derby chances. Hard to envision him being a serious player in Louisville, but perhaps he can use his speed to his advantage like he did in the Louisiana Derby (G2), when he went wire to wire.

Next 7: Verifying, Two Phil's, Arabian Knight, Mage, First Mission, Disarm, Mandarin Hero.

3-year-old females 1. Faiza. Unbeaten in five career starts, she ran her best race so far in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) to run off by more than six lengths. She already has won three graded stakes in 2023.
2. Wet Paint. OK, I'm a believer now. She demolished the Fantasy (G3) field last out at Oaklawn and is in Kentucky as the likely Oaks favorite. She is unbeaten in all four of her dirt track starts. 3. Southlawn. This division is dicey at the moment, and question marks abound. This gal is 2-for-2 this season and won the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) last time out. 4. Pretty Mischievous. Disappointing runner-up finish to Southlawn in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Before that effort she was impressive in the Rachel Alexandra (G2). Has taken a step forward from age 2 to 3 and remains in this spot. 5. And Tell Me Nolies. Runner-up again to Faiza, this time in the Santa Anita Oaks, she will head east now for a run in the Kentucky Oaks. We should get a good idea as to how she stacks up against the fillies based in the east and, more important, how Faiza stacks up since she will miss the Kentucky Oaks. Next 5: Defining Purpose, Punchbowl, Affirmative Lady, Julia Shining, Wonder Wheel.

Turf males

1. Modern Games. He couldn't make it easy for me? Disappointed as the runner-up last out in the Makers Mark Mile (G1), but he retains this top spot for now. This guy did win the Eclipse last season and at least has made a start in this country already. 

2. Chez Pierre. Surprise winner of the Makers Mark Mile, he went from 24-1 to 9-1 in the final tote board flash before they left the gate. He didn't just win, he won by a wide margin quite easily. Before the Makers Mark, he had lost only one race from six starts, so perhaps that one loss in the Tampa Bay Stakes (G3) was an aberration?

3. Casa Creed. Now a 7-year-old, but he is in the best form of his career. He ran lights out when narrowly missing overseas in Saudi Arabia in the Turf Sprint (G3) and finishing second. The Saudi race was his first start this season.

4. Gold Phoenix. He had his chance to take over the top spot, but he couldn't come through last time out in the Whittingham Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita, where he finished fourth, beaten three lengths. Wanted to drop him more but given his resume thus far – he owns a Grade 1 win already this season – I can't. He has finished off the board only two times in 12 career starts, and I still believe is a major player in this division.

5. Hong Kong Harry. Simply didn't fire in the Kilroe Mile (G1) as the heavy favorite, finishing fourth. Was 5-for-6 last season with three graded-stakes wins. He still should contend in this division.

Next 5: Emmanuel, Atone, Spooky Channel, Highland Chief, Offlee Naughty.

Turf females

1. In Italian. Facile winner of the Jenny Wiley (G1) two weeks ago at Keeneland, she moves to this top spot for now. Previous to that she ran well when runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

2. War Like Goddess. Robbed of an Eclipse in 2021, she came very close in 2022 again but Regal Glory was the deserved winner. Back again in 2023, could the third time be the charm? An Eclipse contender again. Will make her 2023 debut at Keeneland in Bewitch (G3) against fellow females Friday.

3. Shantisara. Looked very good winning the Hillsborough (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs a few weeks back, and before that she was runner-up to Queen Goddess in the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G3). This gal is a Grade 1 winner and a player in this division.

4. With the Moonlight. Runner-up to In Italian in the Jenny Wiley, this gal won her other two starts this season in Dubai, both Group 2.

5. Bleecker Street. Suffered the first loss of her career last time out in the Diana (G1) last summer after starting her career with seven straight victories. She put in her run from the back but had too much to do when finishing third. Back in training now and eying a spring comeback.

Next 5: Amazing Grace, Ballet Dancing, Caravel, White Frost, Queen Goddess.

Male sprinters

1. Elite Power. Certainly showed he is the best in the world now sprinting on the dirt. Overpowered the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3) field. Will come back to the states to run in major races and build a nice Eclipse-worthy resume.

2. Sibelius. Surprise winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), defeating Gunite, among others. Prior to that this guy won the listed Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Won his first graded stakes in late December at Gulfstream in the Mr. Prospector (G3).

3. Gunite. Disappointed somewhat in last out in the Golden Shaheen when third as the favorite. Before that he was simply the best of the rest when runner-up to Elite Power in Saudi Arabia.

4. Cody's Wish. Came on late at the end of last season, winning the Forego (G1) at Saratoga and narrowly winning the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile over Cyberknife. Could run next in the Churchill Downs (G1) on Kentucky Derby day.

5. Repo Rocks. Has won his first three 2023 starts, the Toboggan (G3) and the Stymie, a listed stakes, both at Aqueduct, and the black-type Blitzen at Parx, but he disappointed as the heavy favorite last time out in the Carter (G1).

Next 5: Skelly, Doppelganger, Tejano Twist, American Theorem, Spirit of Makena.

Female sprinters

1. Goodnight Olive.  The Eclipse winner from last season started her season off with a win in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland a couple of weeks ago. She did have to work for that win, but a win is a win and this gal has won seven in a row, including three stakes events.

2. Wicked Halo. This 3-year-old filly ran well in the Breeders' Cup last fall to finish third in the Filly & Mare Sprint. Before that effort she won two Grade 2 events, the Raven Run at Keeneland and the Prioress Stakes at Saratoga. She returned this season in the Matron Stakes at Oaklawn a few weeks ago and defeated the highly regarded Matareya.

3. Echo Zulu. This gal ran well against her elders, finishing runner-up to Goodnight Olive in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall. Expecting a big year from her.

4. Frank's Rockette. Won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) at Gulfstream in early March and is back this weekend at Churchill Downs in the Roxelana Stakes.

2. Fun to Dream. Winner of the Santa Monica (G2) earlier this season, her connections tried to stretch out last time in the Beholder Mile (G1) where she finished runner-up.

Next 5: Maryquitecontray, Elm Drive, Swayin to and Fro, Matereya, Society.

Tough to separate Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice

For me personally, the Kentucky Derby has given me my greatest wagering successes. I mean, there has to be a reason for the Dr. Derby moniker, no?

Each season, like many others deeply involved in this sport, my Kentucky Derby thoughts start in the summer the year before. Like everyone else, I am on the lookout for a 2-year-old who catches my eye for one reason or another as it pertains to the Kentucky Derby.

Some years I don’t find one, some I do. Some years it doesn’t click for me until maybe a few months before the Kentucky Derby, and some years it doesn’t click at all.

In 2010 and 2011 it clicked for me. Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky were my horses in 2010, and Animal Kingdom was the only horse I felt that could win the Derby in 2011. Both years went well wagering wise, with 2011 giving me my biggest scores to date.

In 2012 and 2013 I didn’t have a strong feeling about any entry and bet accordingly. In 2014 I went with Danza, not believing that California Chrome could being his form to Kentucky. I was wrong. 2015 was the American Pharoah show and there was no sense betting against him. In late 2015 I found my 2016 Kentucky Derby horse in Nyquist. This was the strongest I felt about a Derby pick since Animal Kingdom.

In 2017 I whiffed. I guess. My pick was Thunder Snow, and I also liked Classic Empire, and I felt sort of good about these two. Thunder Snow refused to run, but I take solace in knowing that he ended up being the best horse from an overall career standpoint who ran in that race. I refused to bet Justify in 2018 and instead went with Solomini, Magnum Moon, and Flameaway. That was a big whiff as well. In 2019 it was Tacitus and Spinoff for me, but I didn’t feel overly confident.

That leads us to 2021 and the most confident I had been about a Derby horse since Nyquist. Medina Spirit was my pick, and he rewarded me. It was one of those years where it was just sort of crystal clear to me and clicked, like 2016 and 2011. It worked out.

Last year I failed to pick the winner like everyone else when Rich Strike took it down at 80-1. I didn’t really have strong feelings on any horse as in in other years, though I went with Crown Pride.

All of this babbling now leads us to this year’s Derby. I would put this year right up there with 2011, 2016 and 2021. The only horses I can see in  the winner's circle a week from Saturday are Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, Forte and Disarm.

There are no others in the expected field I can see winning the race. Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice appear to me as the horses to beat. Full disclosure, I have a decent-sized future book wager on Angel of Empire (40-1) and have liked him for months. But Tapit Trice appears to be the horse who is likeliest to win.

These two are my top picks as of now, and I will narrow down to one next week, but obviously use both in wagers.

If the 2-year-old champ Forte wins, it certainly would not be a surprise. But I feel like Forte has plateaued and hasn’t really progressed as much as we want to see from age 2 to 3. I also question who he has beaten in those Florida races.

What about Disarm? He will be a long shot but I love his pedigree and connections, and I feel like he will make a big jump when going 10 furlongs. I didn’t mind his last race but would have liked to have seen a little better. But if I loved him before that Lexington Stakes, I'm not jumping off of him now. He will be a key long shot for me.

Next week I will dive into the Kentucky Derby field a little deeper, and of course, have all of my picks and wagering plans ready to share.